Farewell PC!

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Why the age of Personal Computer is over

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  • “Technology diverge, not converge”
  • Where is Chrome OS?Why end-to-end solutions could be more successful? (Apple -> HP)Devices should be as primitive as possible to support more apps
  • URLs / File Paths will disappear
  • Farewell PC!

    1. 1. Farewell, PC!Why the age of Personal Computer is over(and what’s coming afterwards)April 7, 2011Li Sirui
    2. 2. “I think there is a world market formaybe five computers.”April 7, 2011— Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943
    3. 3. THE END OFTECHNO-CENTRISMWhy the age of Personal Computer is overApril 7, 2011
    4. 4. April 7, 2011
    5. 5. April 7, 2011
    6. 6. iPad 2 TV Ad -We Believehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tyEpaPEbjzIApril 7, 2011
    7. 7. Motorola XOOM Super Bowl Commercialhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2A2aNXpmesApril 7, 2011
    8. 8. iPad reviews• “The iPad is nothing more thana large iPod Touch.”• “iPad, at best, is glorifiednetbook.”• “You’re not able to multi-task.”• “It wont replace the laptop.”• “No one really needs an iPad.”XOOM reviews• “Motorolas knack for greathardware, … the Xoom tablettechnically offers a morepowerful, more capablealternative to Apples iPad.”• “Weve been craving this kind offast and powerful, ready-for-the-tablet age device.”April 7, 2011The Myth of IT Reviews
    9. 9. April 7, 2011
    10. 10. April 7, 2011These people write critiques and reviewsThese people buy Apple productsModified by D.A. Norman based on figures from Crossing The Chasm
    11. 11. WHAT’S WRONG?Why the age of Personal Computer is overApril 7, 2011
    12. 12. DON’Ttake PC for granted.April 7, 2011
    13. 13. April 7, 2011What do you think ofPCInstallerPatchWizardUpdateSetupToolsDriversMenuFatal ErrorRuntimePartitionsFile SystemsEnd User License AgreementFile PathProgramsC:WindowscmdEditorBIOScrackVirusAdministratorPermission DeniedIP AddressFiles
    14. 14. April 7, 2011AntivirusAuthoring toolsCD/DVD ToolsCompressions toolsDesktop EnhancementsFile managersInternetIPOD TOOLSMobile Phone ToolsMultimediaNetwork ToolsOffice toolsOthersPORTABLE SOFTWAREProgrammingScience/CADSecuritySystemTweakUNIXWindows Widgets
    15. 15. April 7, 2011
    16. 16. The essence of PC• Technology rules• One size fit all (general-purpose)• More features!• The user is in charge of everything(even if they don’t really care)April 7, 2011
    17. 17. The essence of PC = Complexity• Technology rules → Techno-centrism• One size fit all → Apps fit machine• More features! → More confusion• The user is in charge → Learn to useApril 7, 2011
    18. 18. THE RETURN OF APPSWhy the age of Personal Computer is overApril 7, 2011
    19. 19. WHYare we using computers?April 7, 2011
    20. 20. April 7, 2011
    21. 21. April 7, 2011USEComputers are means, not ends.
    22. 22. April 7, 2011USEWindows are means, not ends.
    23. 23. April 7, 2011CHANGEPCAppApp AppAppAppPCSmartphonetablet
    24. 24. April 7, 2011CHANGEPCAppApp AppAppAppdevicedevicedeviceCOMPLEXITY
    25. 25. The Age of PC• Manage everything• Deal with complexity• Platform for all apps• A centralized workflow• Highly constrained by theplatform and deviceThe Age of Apps• No system maintenance• Focus on tasks• An app delivery system• Adapted to usage scenario• Software as a service(SAAS)• Independent of contextApril 7, 2011AppStoreCloud Computing
    26. 26. FUTURE OF POST-PC DEVICESWhy the age of Personal Computer is overApril 7, 2011
    27. 27. WHAT IFwe were given a chance toredesign computers?April 7, 2011(with all current technologies)
    28. 28. BeyondPC• App Store for PC (App Distro-platform)• More natural desktop environment• Gesture control• More sensors• Improved multi-tasking• No file managerAnd more…April 7, 2011
    29. 29. iPad is Apple’s third post-PC blockbusterApple Keynote of iPad 2 Special Event 2011 (via Engadget)April 7, 2011
    30. 30. April 7, 2011MaciPodiPhoneiPad
    31. 31. April 7, 2011
    32. 32. April 7, 2011MaciPodiPhoneiPadThe iPadified Mac
    33. 33. “Ubiquitous computers will also come indifferent sizes, each suited to a particulartask. My colleagues and I have built whatwe call tabs, pads and boards:April 7, 2011— Mark Weiser, The Computer for the 21st Century(Weiser is widely considered to be the father of ubiquitous computing)http://www.ubiq.com/hypertext/weiser/SciAmDraft3.html• inch-scale machines that approximate active Post-It notes,• foot-scale ones that behave something like a sheet of paper(or a book or a magazine),• and yard-scale displays that are the equivalent of ablackboard or bulletin board.”
    34. 34. Maybe you thought this was just a jokeProbably, it’s not…April 7, 2011
    35. 35. April 7, 2011MainframePCSupercomputerDesktopWorkstationLaptopNetbookSmartplayerSmartphoneTabletTabletized LaptopTabPadWallDifferent sizesMorespecializedMoreubiquitousMark Weiser’s prototypesInformation Appliances Don Norman’s vision
    36. 36. April 7, 2011AppAppAppUsersCloudAppAppAppAppWeb AppAppDevicesAppsInfrastructureWeb App
    37. 37. Predictions • PC won’t just die• iDevices will be detachedfrom iTunes• And…April 7, 2011
    38. 38. Wrap-upTHE TREND The Age of Apps– Deliver best apps whenever and however you wantPOWERED BY Cloud computing– Supply generalized computation power via the InternetTHE FUTURE Ubiquitous computing– Integrate computation into everythingApril 7, 2011
    39. 39. The Crossroads of Technology and Liberal Artshttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TGxEQhdi1AQ#t=4110sApril 7, 2011
    40. 40. “They’re not competition — they’re noteven playing the same game!”April 7, 2011— Joshua Topolsky, editor-in-chief of Engadgeton Apple’s Post-PC deviceshttp://www.engadget.com/2011/03/03/editorial-its-apples-post-pc-world-were-all-just-living/
    41. 41. iPad 2 AD by Conan OBrienhttp://www.engadget.com/2011/03/04/conan-obrien-produces-a-more-honest-ipad-2-promotional-video/April 7, 2011
    42. 42. WELCOME TOTHE POST-PC WORLD!April 7, 2011(hope you’ll enjoy it)

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