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Ms. Jane, Dr.Machine will be here to see
you:
Doctorless Healthcare
40,500
The number of adult patient
deaths in ICU every year
due to misdiagnoses
annually
Higher deaths than due to HIV
or Firearms
Injury By
Firearms
33,636
Septicemia
38,156
HIV
6,955
Breast Neoplasm
( Cancer)
...
“A good machine learning
system not only would be
cheaper, more accurate and
objective, but also effectively
replace 80 pe...
10-15%
DIAGSNOSTIC ERROR
Compare this to prediction
errors from other fields
Electricity Load
Forecasting
+/- 5-8%
Electio...
Is this possible?
Can machine learning really
replace doctors?
What about human to human
interaction, what about
emotions…...
Decision process behind diagnosis
Clinical Question
Run Tests /
Diagnostics
Intervention
Confirmation Bias
Availability Bi...
Where can the Machine
Learning Help?
Clinical Question
Run Tests /
Diagnostics
Intervention
State
Hypothesis
Run Delphi /
...
References
• Predicting elections: Who’s the most accurate?
By Timothy Martyn Hill
• 20 percent doctor included: Speculati...
Thank you
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Ms. Jane, Dr. Machine will see you now: Doctorless Healthcare

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Ms. Jane, Dr. Machine will see you now: Doctorless Healthcare

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Ms. Jane, Dr. Machine will see you now: Doctorless Healthcare

  1. 1. Ms. Jane, Dr.Machine will be here to see you: Doctorless Healthcare
  2. 2. 40,500 The number of adult patient deaths in ICU every year due to misdiagnoses annually
  3. 3. Higher deaths than due to HIV or Firearms Injury By Firearms 33,636 Septicemia 38,156 HIV 6,955 Breast Neoplasm ( Cancer) 41,325 Misdiagnoses* 40,500 Leukemia 23,428 Deaths Reported By CDC * http://qualitysafety.bmj.com/content/early/2012/07/23/bmjqs-2012-000803.full.pdf+html
  4. 4. “A good machine learning system not only would be cheaper, more accurate and objective, but also effectively replace 80 percent of doctors simply by being better than the average doctor.”- Vinod Khosla
  5. 5. 10-15% DIAGSNOSTIC ERROR Compare this to prediction errors from other fields Electricity Load Forecasting +/- 5-8% Election Forecast Nate Silver =4% Bookies = 3% Raymond Kurzweil 14%
  6. 6. Is this possible? Can machine learning really replace doctors? What about human to human interaction, what about emotions…? Lets first understand how doctors diagnose ? Can machines replace doctors?
  7. 7. Decision process behind diagnosis Clinical Question Run Tests / Diagnostics Intervention Confirmation Bias Availability Bias Cognitive Bias
  8. 8. Where can the Machine Learning Help? Clinical Question Run Tests / Diagnostics Intervention State Hypothesis Run Delphi / Machine Learning
  9. 9. References • Predicting elections: Who’s the most accurate? By Timothy Martyn Hill • 20 percent doctor included: Speculations and musings of a technology optimist • Googling for a diagnosis—use of Google as a diagnostic aid: internet based study • The Art and Science of Clinical Decision Making • http://profiles.ucsf.edu/gurpreet.dhaliwal http://qualitysafety.bmj.com/content/early/2012/07/23/bmjqs-2012-000803.full.pdf+html
  10. 10. Thank you

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