Seeking The FutureFive forces that will drive the nextTechno-Economic Revolution1 May 2012 1Larry RyanChief Technologist, ...
KONDRATIEFF CYCLES TOTECHNO-ECONOMIC PARADIGMS    Nickolai Kondratieff                                                    ...
FIVE TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTIONS                                                    INSTALLATION PERIOD                     ...
FINANCIAL INNOVATIONS                                                           IN THE            5TH       WAVE    Financ...
FINANCIAL INNOVATIONS                                                               IN THE             5TH        WAVE    ...
ASSET-BACKED SECURITIES                                 Asset-Backed Securities Outstanding (Billions)                    ...
UNITED STATES GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT8   © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P.    The information cont...
UNITED STATES GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION9   © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P.    The information con...
US DEBT MARKETS              US Commercial Paper                                                                          ...
5 FORCES DRIVING THE FUTUREBIO-TECH, NANO-TECH, ENVIRO-TECH, INFO-TECH2, ROBOTICS11   © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Dev...
BIOLOGICAL TECHNOLOGY                                                                             • Cellular level rejuven...
BIOLOGICAL TECHNOLOGY                             The demand for                             replacement organs will      ...
NANO TECHNOLOGY                                                                             • Ultra-pure, ultra-light, ult...
NANO TECHNOLOGY Nanomaterials – ultra-pure, ultra-strong, ultra-lightweight, ultra-capable                                ...
ENERGY & ECOLOGY TECHNOLOGY                                                                             • Ultra-efficient ...
ENERGY & ECOLOGY TECHNOLOGY                                                                                • ENMS system  ...
ENVIRONMENTAL TECHNOLOGY     ENERGY - BEYOND “RENEWABLE”        Thermopower waves                                         ...
ROBOTICS TECHNOLOGY                                                                             • Nano-strong, nano-light ...
HUMANOID ROBOTICS Thinking Reasoning • Optical Computing • Memristors • Neuromorphic Computing Senses • Inertial Guidance ...
NON-HUMANOID ROBOTICS                    RoboFly21   © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P.     The in...
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY                                                                             • 3rd Wave moving to th...
CONTINUED EXPONENTIAL ITMemristors & Neuromorphic Computing                                               Photonic Computi...
NEUROMORPHIC COMPUTING                                                       AND FINANCE– Millions of sensors     • Sense,...
WHERE ARE WE NOW?25   ©2010 HP reproduction by permission only     © Copyright- 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, ...
Hewlett-Packard Company                                          Lawrence.ryan@hp.com            1 Penn Plaza; 8th Floor  ...
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Seeking the Future: Five forces that will drive the next Techno-Economic Revolution

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Seeking the Future: Five forces that will drive the next Techno-Economic Revolution

  1. 1. Seeking The FutureFive forces that will drive the nextTechno-Economic Revolution1 May 2012 1Larry RyanChief Technologist, Financial Services IndustryHP Enterprise Services ©2011 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. 1 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
  2. 2. KONDRATIEFF CYCLES TOTECHNO-ECONOMIC PARADIGMS Nickolai Kondratieff Joseph Schumpeter (1892-1938) (1883-1950) Inflection INNOVATION Point RECOVERY MATURITY NEXT & GROWTH Euphoria Anxiety MATURITY Thrill Technology Diffusion SYNERGY Denial Optimism Fear FRENZY Desperation Optimism Excitement Panic Relief ERUPTION Hope Despondency Time Big Bang Crash Recovery and Transition2 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
  3. 3. FIVE TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTIONS INSTALLATION PERIOD TURNIN DEPLOYMENT PERIOD G POINT Bubble prosperity Collapse & “Golden Prosperity Maturity Recessions Age” FIRST: •The “Industrial Revolution” (machines, factories, and canals) From 177 •Britain SECOND: •Age of Steam, Coal, Iron and Railways From 1829 •Britain and spreading to the Continent and USA THIRD: •Age of Steel, Electricity, and Heavy Engineering From 1875 •USA and Germany overtaking Britain FOURTH: •Age of the Automobile, Oil, Petrochemicals and Mass Production From 1908 •USA and Spreading to Europe FIFTH: •Age of Information Technology and Telecommunications From 1971 •USA, spreading to Europe and Asia SIXTH: •Age of Biotech, Nanotech, Bioelectronics and New Materials? From 20??3 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice. * The Direction of innovation after the financial collapse, Carlota Perez, 9th Triple Helix Conference, July 2011
  4. 4. FINANCIAL INNOVATIONS IN THE 5TH WAVE Financial Tools Payment Channels Derivative Explosion • Swaps: interest rate, currency • SWIFT • Credit default swaps • Credit and debit cards growth (online • Total return swap authorization) • Online (PayPal), mobile (Square), wallets Asset Backed Securities • Micro transactions • Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDO) • Auto, credit card, student, home equity Value systems • Airline mileage, hotel points, Bitcoin virtual Banking Channels currency, Facebook credits • Mobility • Online banking Quantitative Finance Markets • Risk management • FX, currency, equity, futures, commodities, • Pricing, portfolio valuation forwards4 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
  5. 5. FINANCIAL INNOVATIONS IN THE 5TH WAVE Treasury Corporate Finance Capital Markets & Funding • Valuation methods • Growth retail trading • Capital strategy • Trade finance • Investment management • A/R factoring • Corporate debt • Securitization • M&A, outsourcing • Commercial paper • Multi-currency/multi-geography contracts Cash & Liquidity Management • Forecasting cash needs • Pooling Treasury Operations & Control • Global integration front, middle and back office • Global monitoring and inter-connectivity • Electronic bank interfacing • Corporate system integration (i.e., SAP) Risk Management • Visibility and reporting • Enterprise Risk Management • Hedging risks: interest, credit, currency, commodities • Credit risk management • Global risk management5 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
  6. 6. ASSET-BACKED SECURITIES Asset-Backed Securities Outstanding (Billions) Automobile Credit Card Equipment Home Equity Manufactured Housing Other1 Student Loans 3,500.0 3,000.0 2,500.0 2,000.0 1,500.0 1,000.0 500.0 0.0 Asset-Backed Securities Issurance (millions) Auto Credit Cards Equipment Home Equity Manufactured Housing Other Student Loans 800,000.00 300,000.00 -200,000.007 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
  7. 7. UNITED STATES GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT8 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
  8. 8. UNITED STATES GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION9 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
  9. 9. US DEBT MARKETS US Commercial Paper US Corporate Bond Outstanding (USD Billions) Issurance (USD Billions)2,500.0 1,500.02,000.0 1,000.01,500.01,000.0 500.0 500.0 0.0 0.0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Jan/2007 Jan/2008 Jan/2009 Jan/2010 Jan/2011 Jan/2012 Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Investment Grade High Yield US Outstanding Money Market Instruments (USD Billions) 6,000.0 4,000.0 2,000.0 0.0 Commercial Paper Bankers Acceptance Lg. Time Deposits 10 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
  10. 10. 5 FORCES DRIVING THE FUTUREBIO-TECH, NANO-TECH, ENVIRO-TECH, INFO-TECH2, ROBOTICS11 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
  11. 11. BIOLOGICAL TECHNOLOGY • Cellular level rejuvenation • DNA computing • Hybrid robotic/biological systems • Genetically Modified Foods to feed billions • Uber-humans12 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
  12. 12. BIOLOGICAL TECHNOLOGY The demand for replacement organs will increase as Boomers pay for their misspent lifestyles Contact lenses with circuits, lights a possible platform for superhuman vision Craig Venter and team at Synthetic Genomics engineered the first, human- created, artificial lifeformhttp://www.ted.com/talks/craig_venter_unveils_synthetic_life.html 13 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice. Craig Venter
  13. 13. NANO TECHNOLOGY • Ultra-pure, ultra-light, ultra- efficient . . . ultra-everything • Invisible computers and infinite storage • Alternative, alternative energy • Homogenous by the billions • Heterogeneous by the molecules14 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
  14. 14. NANO TECHNOLOGY Nanomaterials – ultra-pure, ultra-strong, ultra-lightweight, ultra-capable Glowing Report Smart Bomb Medicine Cabinet Seek and Destroy Power Pack Tiny Turbine Cell Control Alien Invasion Nanomachines – extremely small machines15 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
  15. 15. ENERGY & ECOLOGY TECHNOLOGY • Ultra-efficient compute, storage, communications • Parasitic powered medical devices • Ultra-efficient, ultra-clean energy generation • Smart everything = Green everything16 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
  16. 16. ENERGY & ECOLOGY TECHNOLOGY • ENMS system • 10% Renewable (not continuously monitors on premises) and optimizes energy • High efficiency UPS consumption and generators • BREEAM expected • 20+% total power Cooling Monitoring rating “very good” Power consumption reduction*• 97% Outside Air Economizers• Variable Speed Fans• low velocity undercroft plenum pressurised to 20 Lighting pascals• ~50% carbon • Dimmable, reduction* Addressable, Lighting Interface • 40-50% energy reduction • 45º orientation Data Hall Building• Encapsulated Cold Air Aisles• Distributed High • Groundwater Recovery System • Southern Exposure Performance Servers • Restored Ecosystem • 95% shell reuse• Light Grey Racks • Public Transportation • 65% salvage recycled• Higher operating set • 25% new from recycled points Grounds • High efficiency Roof * to comparable conventional facility 17 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
  17. 17. ENVIRONMENTAL TECHNOLOGY ENERGY - BEYOND “RENEWABLE” Thermopower waves Traveling Wave Nuclear Power High efficiency direct conversion of radiation to electricity18 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
  18. 18. ROBOTICS TECHNOLOGY • Nano-strong, nano-light materials • Biomimicry movements - Nature as Model, Measure and Mentor • Bipedal, humanoid, or whatever you want/need • Autonomic actions19 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
  19. 19. HUMANOID ROBOTICS Thinking Reasoning • Optical Computing • Memristors • Neuromorphic Computing Senses • Inertial Guidance • Chemical Sensors • Pressure/Temperature Muscles Skeleton • Carbon nanotube • Electro-elastic polymers Energy Kojiro • Nanotechnology- Robot based batteries Tokyo University20 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
  20. 20. NON-HUMANOID ROBOTICS RoboFly21 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
  21. 21. INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY • 3rd Wave moving to the 4th Wave • Exploding Edges • IT everywhere – flexible, dynamic, invisible • Autonomic Operations • New capabilities, new uses, new opportunities22 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
  22. 22. CONTINUED EXPONENTIAL ITMemristors & Neuromorphic Computing Photonic Computing 2D to 3D Architectures What Quantum Computing will fill this hole?23 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
  23. 23. NEUROMORPHIC COMPUTING AND FINANCE– Millions of sensors • Sense, interpret, correlate, and summarize all financial related events • Cash flows, Expenditures, Funding • Investments & Assets • Trade Finance– Real-time Signal analysis to interpret and forecast • Liquidity management • Pro-forma financial position • Multi-currency & multi-value • Fraud • Risk Exposures & Management • Efficiency & Cost Analytics • Valuation, pricing, Black Swans– Applied learning methods • Changing landscape: banks, customers, partners, and portfolio • Cash & Liquidity Management • Fraud • Risk Exposures– Simulation & Back-testing– Distributed and ubiquitous24 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
  24. 24. WHERE ARE WE NOW?25 ©2010 HP reproduction by permission only © Copyright- 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.
  25. 25. Hewlett-Packard Company Lawrence.ryan@hp.com 1 Penn Plaza; 8th Floor +1 (516) 901-3801 NY, NY 10121-0001 USA26 © Copyright 2012 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.

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