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Lora Aroyo & Chris Welty

to be AND not to be: 
Quantum Intelligence
Cognitive Digital Assistants
next generation PDA

machines model 
human decision making
your tea, Earl Grey, hot,
is ready at the replicator
there is 33% probability
that you are going to
say “make it so”
I have a meeting in Utrecht


I BIKE every day to work


Would I use the bike to go there?
I have a meeting in Utrecht


I BIKE every day to work


SENSE
Machines behaving badly


Would I use the bike to go there?
I have a meeting in Utrecht


I BIKE every day to work


Why does this happen?
Machines behaving badly
all the information machines have
is all the information there is
there is always other kinds of information …
maybe you
should have
biked to work
SENSE
observations in psychology ...
Order II
Clinton OK? 53% 
Gore OK? 66%
Order I
76% Gore OK? 
58% Clinton OK? 
Gallup Poll, September 6–7, 1997
“irrational...
Order II
Clinton OK? 53% 
Gore OK? 66%
Order I
76% Gore OK? 
58% Clinton OK? 
Gallup Poll, September 6–7, 1997
“irrational...
environment
foreign 
policy
KEEP
CALM
AND
LIKE
CLINTON
&
KEEP
CALM
AND
DON’T LIKE
CLINTON
people can’t believe contradictions
there is always other kinds of information …
back in the day…
SENSE
back in the day…
SENSE
we need new math
quantum math makes sense of duality
uncertainty 
entanglement 
duality
quantum math makes sense of irrational human behavior
KEEP
CALM
AND
LIKE
CLINTON
&
KEEP
CALM
AND
DON’T LIKE
CLINTON
P (EVENT) + P (not_EVENT) = 1 
basic law of probability theory
P ( ) = 0.58
in probability theory: measuring one of them is enough
IF 
P ( ) = 1- 0.58 = 0.42
THEN
environment
foreign policy
Al Gore
George W. Bush
my feet hurt
Monica Lewinsky
in reality: there is always other informati...
CrowdTruth

even expert opinions are affected by external information
P ( ) = 0.75
Antibiotics doesn’t treat Typhus?
Antibiotics treat Typhus?
P ( ) = 0.50
medical CrowdTruth
P ( ) = 0.50
quantum math makes sense with context effect
P ( ) = 0.75
P ( ) + P ( ) = 0.75 + 0.50 ≠ 1 
context effect 0.25
you seem
moody today,
shall I just call
you a cab?
QuantumTruth

makes sense
TEDx Navesink 2015: to be AND not to be - Quantum Intelligence
TEDx Navesink 2015: to be AND not to be - Quantum Intelligence
TEDx Navesink 2015: to be AND not to be - Quantum Intelligence
TEDx Navesink 2015: to be AND not to be - Quantum Intelligence
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TEDx Navesink 2015: to be AND not to be - Quantum Intelligence

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Lora Aroyo and Chris Welty propose a radical new approach to modeling human behavior for the next generation of PDAs: Use quantum math instead of probability theory. It makes sense. Watch the video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CyAI_lVUdzM

Published in: Technology
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TEDx Navesink 2015: to be AND not to be - Quantum Intelligence

  1. 1. Lora Aroyo & Chris Welty to be AND not to be: Quantum Intelligence
  2. 2. Cognitive Digital Assistants next generation PDA machines model human decision making
  3. 3. your tea, Earl Grey, hot, is ready at the replicator
  4. 4. there is 33% probability that you are going to say “make it so”
  5. 5. I have a meeting in Utrecht I BIKE every day to work Would I use the bike to go there?
  6. 6. I have a meeting in Utrecht I BIKE every day to work SENSE Machines behaving badly Would I use the bike to go there?
  7. 7. I have a meeting in Utrecht I BIKE every day to work Why does this happen? Machines behaving badly
  8. 8. all the information machines have is all the information there is
  9. 9. there is always other kinds of information … maybe you should have biked to work
  10. 10. SENSE
  11. 11. observations in psychology ...
  12. 12. Order II Clinton OK? 53% Gore OK? 66% Order I 76% Gore OK? 58% Clinton OK? Gallup Poll, September 6–7, 1997 “irrational human behavior”: order matters
  13. 13. Order II Clinton OK? 53% Gore OK? 66% Order I 76% Gore OK? 58% Clinton OK? Gallup Poll, September 6–7, 1997 “irrational human behavior”: order matters SENSE
  14. 14. environment foreign policy
  15. 15. KEEP CALM AND LIKE CLINTON & KEEP CALM AND DON’T LIKE CLINTON people can’t believe contradictions
  16. 16. there is always other kinds of information …
  17. 17. back in the day…
  18. 18. SENSE back in the day…
  19. 19. SENSE
  20. 20. we need new math
  21. 21. quantum math makes sense of duality
  22. 22. uncertainty entanglement duality
  23. 23. quantum math makes sense of irrational human behavior KEEP CALM AND LIKE CLINTON & KEEP CALM AND DON’T LIKE CLINTON
  24. 24. P (EVENT) + P (not_EVENT) = 1 basic law of probability theory
  25. 25. P ( ) = 0.58 in probability theory: measuring one of them is enough IF P ( ) = 1- 0.58 = 0.42 THEN
  26. 26. environment foreign policy Al Gore George W. Bush my feet hurt Monica Lewinsky in reality: there is always other information
  27. 27. CrowdTruth
 even expert opinions are affected by external information
  28. 28. P ( ) = 0.75 Antibiotics doesn’t treat Typhus? Antibiotics treat Typhus? P ( ) = 0.50 medical CrowdTruth
  29. 29. P ( ) = 0.50 quantum math makes sense with context effect P ( ) = 0.75 P ( ) + P ( ) = 0.75 + 0.50 ≠ 1 context effect 0.25
  30. 30. you seem moody today, shall I just call you a cab?
  31. 31. QuantumTruth
 makes sense

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