Alternate title: Used to have customer-neutral opinions about the future of our industryIt’s a great way to show customers what we believe is possible and why without judging their particular set of beliefs and strategiesIt’s also a great way to incorporate their beliefs into our future planning without retaining ties to specific customers and products – simple course corrections can covey new future directions without calling out specificsThe results of scenario planning are also very publishable – it’s great collateral at conferences, for instance, to set common AMD future context for everything from engineering presentations to market initiatives
Rank your uncertainties on two scales – what’s important to you and what’s important to your marketFocus on the uncertainties that rank high on both.This is differentiating insight into your market.Simply having a good handle on what’s both really uncertain and really important puts you ahead of the game.
DescriptionsWho acted in what fashion to produce each scenarioMajor similarities and differences between scenarios
<read slide>Remember, everyone is wrong about the future. Our goal is to manage our risks better than our competitors.Scenarios provide a context to strategy that lets people focus on what to do about many possible futures, instead of what can go wrong with the one future each person has in their headYou can apply this process to many kinds of projects and enterprise; I’ve even helped a church go through this process to understand the impact of their changing demographics
More work needed to fully explore the scenario space
Scenario Planning At Amd V10
Scenarios are a self-consistent set of stories about plausible futures - they highlight future uncertainty Scenarios are notScenarios are not strategy predictions They create Do not expect context for that any single strategy scenario will be “correct” or Metaphor: flying “the” future aircraft designs through various Can’t assign wind tunnel probabilities configurations 40+ years of Scenario Planning best practices
Core Team Forward Thinkers Create planning question Brainstorming #1 “Beliefs”(scope) and prompts for… “I believe…” DivergeTopical investigations and Brainstorming #2 “Assertions” create prompts for… “We believe…” Converge Scenario structure and Brainstorming #3 “Dynamics” high-level dynamics Review/critique structure and brainstorm scenario dynamics Draft scenarios Consistency and completeness checking Strategic planning simulations, publication, etc.
What is it we want toknow about our future?Bound our scope andmarket windowsDo the homeworkLook for uncertainty
What is uncertain about our future? Structuring future scenarios and acknowledging risk Pick pairs of uncertainties Play with them Settle on uncertainties that best illustrate potential risk and potential reward Write a set of scenarios that talk to how the uncertainties might resolve themselves
Differentiating structure based on Structure critical uncertainties and events Scenario A description of our market or industryDescriptions in each alternate future Platform Describe “dominant design” featuresDescriptions in each future Events that determine which scenarioGuideposts features are evolving
Scenarios are a consistentframework to encourageconstructive dialogHow will we differentiateourselves in each scenario?
Locality Local Hosted End-to-End Apps ThundercloudUser Experience Non-Windows (New Apps) (New Apps) Today Hosted Client Windows and (New Apps) (Good Enough) Mac
Scalability Specific Applications General Purpose Hosted Cloud ExperienceApplication Focus Client Experience Hardware+ Hyper-Scale (Today) Business
How are we different now?How will we maintain our differentiation over time?