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Technological Unemployment and the Robo-Economy

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Technological Unemployment (jobs outsourced to technology) is coming and the challenge is to steward an orderly and beneficial transition to more intense human-technology collaboration

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Technological Unemployment and the Robo-Economy

  1. 1. Workshop: Work, Labor, and Automation New York NY, Jan 23, 2017 Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga Bitcoin and Automation Economy Melanie Swan Philosophy & Economic Theory New School University, NY NY m@melanieswan.com Technological Unemployment Transition to the Automation Economy and Robo-human Futures Part of a Series on the Philosophy of Economic Theory cryptophilosophy
  2. 2. Jan 23, 2017 Automation Economy 1 Melanie Swan  Philosophy and Economic Theory, New School University, New York NY  Founder, Institute for Blockchain Studies  Singularity University Instructor; Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technology Affiliate Scholar; EDGE Essayist; FQXi Advisor Traditional Markets Background Economic Theory Leadership New Economies research group https://www.facebook.com/groups/NewEconomies
  3. 3. Jan 23, 2017 Automation Economy No 2 Yes Not sure From Book chapter: Swan, M. "Automation Economy: An Abundance Philosophy of Economics" In Surviving the Machine Economy. Eds. Hughes, LaGrandeur, Palgrave Macmillan. 2017. Do you want a robot to take your job?
  4. 4. Jan 23, 2017 Automation Economy Thesis 3 Technological Unemployment (jobs outsourced to technology) is coming… …the challenge is to steward an orderly and beneficial transition to the Automation Economy of more intense human-technology collaboration
  5. 5. Jan 23, 2017 Automation Economy Technological Unemployment  Definition: jobs outsourced to technology  Estimate: Half (47%) of employment is at risk of automation in the next two decades – Carl Frey, Oxford, 2015  Global driverless-car market $42 billion by 2025 – BCG, 2015  Transportation = 10% GDP – US DOT, 2002  Why are there still so many jobs in a world that could be automating more quickly? – David Autor, MIT, 2015 4 Source: Swan, M. "Is Technological Unemployment Real?” In Surviving the Machine Age: Intelligent Technology and the Transformation of Human Work. James Hughes and Kevin LaGrandeur, Eds., Palgrave Macmillan, Forthcoming 2017.
  6. 6. Jan 23, 2017 Automation Economy Technological Unemployment is coming Good news or bad news? 5 Source: http://www.robotandhwang.com/attorneys/
  7. 7. Jan 23, 2017 Automation Economy Technological Unemployment The real issue is human identity crisis in a world of technology  Lower-level problem (non-trivial but solvable):  Assumption that it is bad news (robots taking jobs), when the very promise of technology is delivering an easier life  Paternalistic worry about what individuals will do with additional free time (“idle hands”)  Income inequality, ownership of means of production, GBI 6 GBI: Guaranteed Basic Income allowance for all; blockchain-based; Source: Swan, M. (2015). Blockchain: Blueprint for a New Economy, http://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Blueprint-New-World-Currency/dp/1491920491  Harder challenge: human identity crisis  Defining our identity as a function of labor tasks and lower-level cognitive output  We do not know who we are because we have not had the luxury to consider who we can be in realizing our full potential as human beings
  8. 8. Jan 23, 2017 Automation Economy Who are we? Human identity crisis 7 Maslow’s (original) hierarchy of needs Survive (reach baseline) Thrive (extend baseline) Source: Swan, M. (2017). Cognitive Easing: Human Identity Crisis in a World of Technology, http://ieet.org/index.php/IEET/more/Swan20170107.  So…we don’t know who we are, and we are out of a job  So far, we have had to focus more on the lower levels of Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs for surviving instead of envisioning what thriving would look like ?
  9. 9. Jan 23, 2017 Automation Economy Step 1: Reconceive Life 8 Work Leisure Community Sports, exercise Creativity Learning Music Art Spirituality Groups, clubs Source: Swan, M. (2016). Abundance Economics. http://www.slideshare.net/lablogga/abundance-economics Productive engagement of human faculties (via job 2.0 or other) Health TeachingRelaxation Fun Life 1.0 Meta: life design, feedback loop Life 2.0 Job of the future: life coach becomes life designer
  10. 10. Jan 23, 2017 Automation Economy Step 2: Call to +Psychology Entrepreneurs  Design experiences for human needs  Prediction: more activities in model of “Toastmasters” and “World of Warcraft”  Structured path for mastery  Toastmasters: regular, interactive, learning community of competition, support, fun  Video games: immediate gratification, positive reinforcement, progress, competition, team-work, rewards 9 Source: PERMA, Seligman, M., U Penn, https://positivepsychologyprogram.com/perma-model/
  11. 11. Jan 23, 2017 Automation Economy Step 3: Shift to Abundance Economics 10 Source: Swan, M. "Automation Economy: An Abundance Philosophy of Economics" In Emerging Technology and Unemployment. Palgrave Macmillan. Forthcoming.  Emphasize the production and consumption of intangible social goods in addition to material goods  Trust, recognition, freedom, belonging, acknowledgement A B C
  12. 12. Jan 23, 2017 Automation Economy Step 4: Reframe power & status to >sum-zero  Decrease in violence, but power and status are still not sum-zero (they are won at the expense of another)  Effect: Sum-zero power and status result in income inequality and worsening quality of life attributes (crime, health, trust)  Power: reframe to “power with” not “power over”  Efficient group coordination models (convergent facilitation)  Status: reframe to need for recognition, mattering, acknowledgement; internal locus of determinacy 11 Source: http://futurememes.blogspot.com/2015/07/antidote-to-holocracy-blockchain-smart.html
  13. 13. Jan 23, 2017 Automation Economy Step 5: Vision for robo-human flourishing 12 Survive (reach baseline) Human-Robot Relation Thrive (extend baseline) 2.0: Interdependence and mutual care-taking, inspiration, and support “Yes-and Bot” 1.0: Master-slave power dynamic  The most rewarding human-robot relationships will be those that evolve from master-slave power dynamics to those with reciprocity, mutual recognition, interdependence, learning, and care-taking  Effects: robots help produce intangible social goods and solve human Identity crisis by facilitating higher Maslow levels
  14. 14. Jan 23, 2017 Automation Economy 13 Robo-human Futures
  15. 15. Jan 23, 2017 Automation Economy Thesis 14 Technological Unemployment (jobs outsourced to technology) is coming… …the challenge is to steward an orderly and beneficial transition to the Automation Economy of more intense human-technology collaboration
  16. 16. Workshop: Work, Labor, and Automation New York NY, Jan 23, 2017 Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga Bitcoin and Automation Economy Melanie Swan Philosophy & Economic Theory New School University, NY NY m@melanieswan.com Technological Unemployment Transition to the Automation Economy and Robo-human Futures Part of a Series on the Philosophy of Economic Theory cryptophilosophy Thank You! Questions? Acknowledgement for providing Review Comments: Ming Fu, U Pennt

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