Prediction markets

Live Prediction Markets Simulation Futures & Forecasting - Quantitative Methods Melanie Swan Principal MS Futures Group +1-650-681-9482 @LaBlogga [email_address] www.melanieswan.com July 19, 2011 Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga Image: http://wall.alphacoders.com/ SU GPS for the Mind: www.mindtimemaps.com/start/sugp SU Prediction Market: gsp11.inklingmarkets.com

Workshop timeline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Prediction Markets July 19, 2011

About Melanie Swan ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Prediction Markets July 19, 2011 Source: http://melanieswan.com/publications.htm

Forecasting and future studies toolkit ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Prediction Markets July 19, 2011 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Image: Bill Frymire

GPS for the Mind exercise Prediction Markets July 19, 2011 ,[object Object],Image: http://www.mindtime.com Source: Fortunato, VJ and Furey, JT. The theory of MindTime: The relationships between Future, Past, and Present thinking and psychological well-being and distress. Personality and Individual Differences. January 2011, 50(1), pp. 20-4. http://www.miindtime.com certainty possibility probability

Prediction markets definition Prediction Markets July 19, 2011 Images: http://www.intrade.com Prediction markets are a tool for collecting group opinion using market principles Research has shown that prediction markets can develop more accurate forecasts than polls or experts 1 1 Source: Trepte, K. et al. Forecasting consumer products using prediction markets. MIT. 2009. http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/53546

Nexus of markets and collective intelligence Prediction Markets July 19, 2011 Collective intelligence Markets Prediction Markets ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],http://www.cs.cornell.edu/home/kleinber/networks-book ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

History of prediction markets Prediction Markets July 19, 2011 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],1 Source: http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/07/17/history-prediction-markets-timeline Image: http://www.bookshift.com

Prediction markets - definition Prediction Markets July 19, 2011 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],1 Source: Arrow, K.J. et al “The Promise of Prediction Markets” Science, 2008, 320, 5878, 877-878 http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/summary/320/5878/877 Iowa Electronic Markets: 2008 US Democratic Convention Market ,[object Object],Clinton Obama Image: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/13/IEM_DCON2008.svg

Prediction market view: Obama in 2012 Prediction Markets July 19, 2011 Source: http://www.intrade.com Blip: May 1, 2011, Osama bin Laden killed

U.S. congress to lift debt ceiling? Prediction Markets July 19, 2011 Source: http://www.intrade.com

When to use prediction markets Prediction Markets July 19, 2011 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Prediction markets books

Types of prediction markets ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Prediction Markets July 19, 2011 Source: http://www.intrade.com

Internal prediction markets: Social business intelligence in organizations Prediction Markets July 19, 2011 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Image: http://torontopm.files.wordpress.com/2009/06/quarterly-sales-graph.jpg?w=300&h=234

Public prediction markets Prediction Markets July 19, 2011 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: http://www.hsx.com RM = real money

HSX – Harry Potter 8 (July 15, 2011 release) Prediction Markets July 19, 2011 Source: http://www.hsx.com Jul 15, 2011 Jul 11, 2011 Jul 17, 2011

Gaming prediction market - simExchange Prediction Markets July 19, 2011 Source: http://www.simexchange.com Released: Jun 7, 2011 Release date: expected Apr 2012

IEhM – Iowa Electronic Health Markets Prediction Markets July 19, 2011 Source: http://iehm.uiowa.edu ,[object Object]

IEhM: anatomy of disease eradication Prediction Markets July 19, 2011 Source: http://iehm.uiowa.edu

Example: RNA folding ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Prediction Markets July 19, 2011 Image: http://www.jbsdonline.com Source: http://eterna.cmu.edu/content/EteRNA Image: http://www.nytimes.com

Futurist prediction markets – LongBets Prediction Markets July 19, 2011 Source: http://www.longbets.org/bets

Prediction market design Prediction Markets July 19, 2011 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Image: http://www.intrade.com

Future of prediction markets ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Prediction Markets July 19, 2011 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Image:http://www.tvrage.com/shows/id-23464

Broader context: markets are the platform Prediction Markets July 19, 2011 Roles of markets Source: Swan, M. New Banks, New Currencies and New Markets in a Multicurrency World: Roadmap for a Post-Scarcity Economy by 2050, presented at Create Futures IberoAmérica, Enthusiasmo Cultural, São Paolo Brazil, October 14, 2009. http://melanieswan.com/documents/economy_20.pdf Types of markets Resource allocation Exchange: supply & demand meet Information (price) discovery Value identification & attribution Utility creation Traditional markets      Prediction markets    Affinity capital    Multicurrency society   Automatic markets   Ideas marketplaces  Scarcity management / abundance injection (PSE)   

Resources ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Prediction Markets July 19, 2011

Questions? Melanie Swan Principal MS Futures Group +1-650-681-9482 [email_address] www.melanieswan.com Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga Creative Commons 3.0 license SU GPS for the Mind: www.mindtimemaps.com/start/sugp SU Prediction Market: gsp11.inklingmarkets.com Image: http://wall.alphacoders.com/

Prediction markets

Prediction markets

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