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FQXi: Ultimate possibilities for technology and life

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FQXi: Ultimate possibilities for technology and life

  1. 1. What can Technology Ultimately Make Possible, and What are the Ultimate Possibilities for Life? March 8, 2009 Melanie Swan Principal MS Futures Group Palo Alto, CA +1-650-681-9482 [email_address] http://www.melanieswan.com Slides: http://www.slideshare.net/LaBlogga/slideshows
  2. 2. What is the future of intelligence? 1 Source: Top 500, June 2008, http://www.top500.org/lists/2008/06, http://www.top500.org/system/8968, http://www.crn.com/hardware/208403186 2 Source: http://paula.univ.gda.pl/~dokgrk/bre01.html Machine Human <ul><li>IBM Roadrunner: 1 petaflop/s (>1,000 trillion IPS) and 80 TB memory 1 </li></ul><ul><li>Unlimited operational/build knowledge </li></ul><ul><li>Quick upgrade cycles: performance capability doubling every 18 months </li></ul><ul><li>Linear, von Neumann architecture </li></ul><ul><li>Understands rigid language </li></ul><ul><li>Special purpose problem solving (Deep Blue, Chinook, ATMs, fraud detection) </li></ul><ul><li>Metal chassis, easy to backup </li></ul><ul><li>An estimated 20,000 trillion IPS and 1,000 TB memory 2 </li></ul><ul><li>Limited operational/build knowledge </li></ul><ul><li>Slow upgrade cycles: 10,000 year evolutionary adaptations </li></ul><ul><li>Massively parallel architecture </li></ul><ul><li>Understands flexible, fuzzy language </li></ul><ul><li>General purpose problem solving, works well in new situations </li></ul><ul><li>Nucleotide chassis, no backup possible </li></ul>
  3. 3. Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/pps/Unither Full human brain neural simulation estimate: 2018
  4. 4. Biotechnology speedups: 12 months (vs. 18) Source: http://www.synthesis.cc/graphics/carlson_cost_per_base_nov_08.jpg
  5. 5. Reengineering life into technology <ul><li>All matter (including life) designed to spec </li></ul><ul><li>Purpose-driven form factors </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Elective embodiment </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Issues </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Transhumanism, posthumanism </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Multiple persistent copies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What is intelligence? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Purpose of humans, of intelligence? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The ultimate possibilities for life and technology: a function of the ability to physically manipulate the universe </li></ul></ul>Image: Natasha Vita-More, Primo Posthuman
  6. 6. Thank you March 8, 2009 Melanie Swan Principal MS Futures Group Palo Alto, CA +1-650-681-9482 [email_address] http://www.melanieswan.com Source: http://www.hetemeel.com/einsteinform.php Slides: http://www.slideshare.net/LaBlogga/slideshows

Editor's Notes

  • From 1991 through 2008, peak performance of supercomputers has doubled about every year. IBM&apos;s Roadrunner in 2008 is more than 250,000 times more powerful than the top supercomputer in 1991 and more than 83 million times more powerful than the Cray-1 in 1983. Roadrunner is equivalent to 10% of my 10^16 flops estimate of a human brain. Various projects aim for a computer within the decade that will exceed the human brain&apos;s processing capabilities.
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