2013 may 7 energy matters

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2013 may 7 energy matters

  1. 1. Power and Prosperity to the PeopleGood Jobs, Resilient Communities and Healthy EnvironmentsKristopher Stevens  Executive DirectorMay 7, 2013www.ontario-sea.orgOver $27 billioninvested in Ontario
  2. 2. 2  OSEA is a respected advocate, facilitator and businesscatalyst bringing the public, commercial and communitysustainable energy sector and their supporters together toaddress emerging trends and the development of healthy,prosperous and ecologically sustainable communitiesacross Ontario.  Who  we  represent:    Members  include  individuals,  manufacturers,  installers,  developers,  municipali6es,  First  Na6ons,  farmers,  co-­‐opera6ves  and  other  community  organiza6ons  suppor6ve  of,  and  engaged  in,  the  full  por>olio  of  sustainable  energy  in  Ontario    Vision:    Every  Ontarian  conserves  energy  and  generates  sustainable  energy  either  as  a  household  or  as  part  of  a  local  community-­‐owned  business,  contribu6ng  to  the  rapid  transi6on  to  100%  sustainable  energy.    Mission:    To  be  recognized  as  one  of  Ontario’s  most  respected  sustainable  energy  advocates  and  facilitators  by  providing  credible,  accurate  and  6mely  informa6on  and  an  unparalleled  network  of  community  and  commercial  sector  supporters  and  par6cipants.    Who is the Ontario Sustainable Energy Association
  3. 3. Our track record•  2004: FIT campaign and report for Ontario governmentresulting in RESOP•  2007: Launched Community Power Fund•  2008: Co-hosted 7th World Wind Energy Conference inKingston and launched campaign for Green Energy Act•  2009-2011: Hosted 3 annual Community Power Conferences•  2011: Defended Green Energy and Economy Act with theWattsNEXT? Campaign and TV commercials•  2012: Secured partnership with Reed Exhibitions to host theAll Energy Canada Conference3  
  4. 4. A little over four years ago we started the GEAcampaign at WWEC 2008 in Kingston4World Wind Energy Conference, 2008 – St. Lawrence College, Kingston
  5. 5. We need your help!www.ontario-­‐sea.org  5
  6. 6. Utilities are already experts at dealingwith variabilityhttp://go.ontario-­‐sea.org/GlobalFutures2012  “Utility experts pointed out thatmanaging variability is nothingnew: utilities have contendedwith variability since the dawn ofcentralized power networks,although mostly in terms ofdemand variability rather thensupply variability.” 6
  7. 7. What’s possible?Paul Gipe, 2012 – http://www.wind-works.org7
  8. 8. Energiewende & the Prosumer8http://go.ontario-­‐sea.org/TheEnergyRevolution  http://go.ontario-sea.org/CentralizedvsDecentralized2020Free access to all future webinars and archives forgovernment staff http://go.ontario-sea.org/past-webinars
  9. 9. Germany Energy Transition, 2012 – www.energytransition.de9
  10. 10. FITs neutralize RFP’s failure to meaningfullyengage and benefit communities10
  11. 11. Washington,  DC  .  Mexico  City  .  San  Salvador  .  Rio  de  Janeiro  .  San?ago  de  Chile  .  Lagos  .  Cape  Town  Nairobi  .  Addis  Ababa  .  Berlin  .  Brussels  .  Warsaw  .  Prague  .  Sarajevo  .  Belgrade  .  Zagreb  .  Istanbul    Kiev  .  Moscow  .  Tbilisi  .  Kabul  .  Lahore  .  New  Dheli  .  Chiang  Mai  .  Phnom  Penh  .  Beijing     Germany Energy Transition, 2012 – www.energytransition.de11
  12. 12. 12
  13. 13. 13Ontario Power Generation, 2013 – www.opg.comSir Adam Beck (a Conservative)created a 100% sustainable publicenergy system that generatedsurplus power to drive Ontario’seconomy…13  
  14. 14. Ontario’sLong-TermEnergyPlanFIGURE 5: BUILDING A CLEANER ELECTRICITY SYSTEMCoal FreeThe Ontario government is committed to improving the health of Ontarians andD CAPACITYis a matter of choices andome designed for baseloadequirements — is superior toterm plan the government hasial and cost implications toble, modern and reliable., it modernizes Ontario’smizes hydroelectric powerervation goals.al as a generation source andom less than one per centt. To ensure reliability, theOntario’s evolving electricity pieOntario Ministry of Energy, 2011 – http://www.mei.gov.on.ca/en/ 14
  15. 15. The FIT 2.0 recommendations put greatemphasis on community1.  Continue commitment to clean energy 2.  Streamline processes and create jobs 3.  Encourage greater communityand aboriginal participation 4.  Improve municipal engagement 5.  Reduce price to reflect lower costs 6.  Expand Ontario’s clean energyeconomy Ontario’s Feed-in Tariff Program Two Year Review Report – http://tinyurl.com/c6b5d8jKristopher Stevens, June 2012 – M’Chigeent First Nation, Ontario, Canada15
  16. 16. FIT Contracts and Large FIT Applicationsas of January 31, 2013 Ontario Power Authority, January 21, 2013 – http://go.ontario-sea.org/FITQupdateJanuary312013 16
  17. 17. MicroFIT project summaryNumber ofApplications(MicroFIT1.0)Sum ofApplications-kw(MicroFIT 1.0)Number ofApplications(MicroFIT 2.0)Sum ofApplications-kw(MicroFIT 2.0)TotalApplications47,127 430,352 kw 10,590 98,309 kwRejected 23,015 211,553 kw 5,359 49,606 kwConditionaloffer3,679 35,879 kw 3,488 32,748 kwConnected 56 432 kw 80 680 kwContractExecuted14,706 128,688 kw 575 4,863 kwOntario Power Authority, February 18, 2013 – http://go.ontario-sea.org/microfitfeb2013 17
  18. 18. Small FIT 2.0 Community and Aboriginal set-aside 2/3+ are community/Aboriginal4000+ applications = ~ 825MW Aboriginal set-aside 1000+ applications = ~200 MW Community set-aside 458 applications = ~85 MW Community & Aboriginal Priority At least another 2-300 MW 18Ontario Power Authority, January 28, 2013 - http://go.ontario-sea.org/Jan282013smallFITsummary
  19. 19. Small FIT employment potential0.05,000.010,000.015,000.020,000.025,000.0200 MW 400 MW 600 MWTotal employmentTotal employmentDerived from OSEA’sEconomic ImpactAssessment Tool inpartnership with theConference Board ofCanada and ClearSkyAdvisors OSEA, March 23, 2013 – www.ontario-sea.org 19
  20. 20. impact of the small FIT under 2.0$0$1,000,000,000$2,000,000,000$3,000,000,000$4,000,000,000$5,000,000,000$6,000,000,000$7,000,000,000$8,000,000,000Total investment Total impact on GDP Wages and Salaries Taxes600 MW400 MW200 MWOSEA, March 23, 2013 – www.ontario-sea.org 20
  21. 21. Short Term (now to 2014) Medium Term (2015 – 2018) Long Term (2019 & beyond) • Phase out remaining coal-fired generation(approx. 3,500 MW) • Up to 7,500 MW of non-hydro renewablegeneration installed capacity • Installed wind generation capacity approx.1,500 MW today • Surplus Baseload Generation occurring morefrequently • Embedded generation increasing • Conservation and Demand Managementtargets • Rate increases (approx. 45% by 2014) •  Coal phase out complete •  Up to 10,700 MW of planned non-hydro renewable generation capacity • Existing Bruce and Darlington nuclearunits out of service for upgrades; nocapacity gap assuming operation ofPickering units extended • Without extension of Pickering units,capacity gap starts in 2016 • Capacity gap will start sooner than2016 if the 10,700 MW target for non-hydro renewables not being met (e.g.,attrition) • Capacity gap up to 2,400 MW untilnuclear units return to service in 2023 25000270002900031000330002012 2013 2014MWCapacity  Available  at  PeakDemand  +  Reserve  Reqt2015 2016 2017 2018WithoutPickeringExt. 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Source: OPS IPSP Planning and Consultation Overview , May 2011 Scenario 1: Generationoversupply continues to 2019(nuclear availability and littleFIT attrition) Scenario 2: Generationcapacity needed by 2016 orsooner (nuclear unavailabilityand major FIT attrition) Jason Chee-Aloy, 2012 – http://www.poweradvisoryllc.comThe deficit cliff…who is served by delays?21
  22. 22. Comparing Ontario’s optionsClean Air Alliance, 2011 – http://www.cleanairalliance.org/files/costcompare.pdf 22
  23. 23. Getting it right, not quiteMarion Fraser, Getting it Right, Not Quite - http://go.ontario-sea.org/NotQuiteGovernanceGreen economy ✓✗Conservation ✗Renewable energy ✓✗Clean distributed energy & CHP ?Community energy ✓…Aboriginal energy ✓…Procurement and connection priority ✓✗Grid and market evolution ✓✗Protect the environment ✓Protect vulnerable consumers ✓23
  24. 24. Remember we need to put greater emphasison community as orginaly proposed1.  Continue commitment to clean energy 2.  Streamline processes and create jobs 3.  Encourage greater communityand aboriginal participation 4.  Improve municipal engagement 5.  Reduce price to reflect lower costs 6.  Expand Ontario’s clean energyeconomy Ontario’s Feed-in Tariff Program Two Year Review Report – http://tinyurl.com/c6b5d8jKristopher Stevens, June 2012 – M’Chigeent First Nation, Ontario, Canada24
  25. 25. A change in scale, distribution, resiliency,ownership and benefitPreben Maegaard, 2010 – Nordik Folkecenter, Denmark 25
  26. 26. Copenhagen Thermal Map, 2013 – www.dbdh.dkCopenhagen’s thermal grid26
  27. 27. 27Danish Heat Supply Act 1979 (Update 2005)-  Plants larger than 1MW must be CHP -  Heat must be priced to actual cost on anon-profit basis -  Electric heating in new buildings isbanned -  Obligation to connect to the thermal grid http://go.ontario-sea.org/DenmarkThermalPolicy http://go.ontario-sea.org/CanadianThermalGrids Kristopher Stevens, 2009 – Copenhagen, Denmark
  28. 28. Soren Hermansen, 2013 – Samso Island, Denmark - www.energiakademiet.dk 28Samso Island was a pioneer 20+ years ago
  29. 29. Juhnde’s 750 people are already 100% + 85%http://go.ontario-­‐sea.org/JUHNDE100PERCENT    Kristopher Stevens, 2012 – Juhnde, Germany29
  30. 30. M’Chigeeng First Nation is one of our pioneersM’Chigeeng First Nation built small solar projects first and thentwo 2MW Enercon windmills!The Mother Earth Renewable Energy project will generate$300,000 annually for 14 years and then $1.2 million for 6 yearsKristopher Stevens, M’Chigeeng First Nation, 2012 – http://go.ontario-sea.org/MChigeengWind 30
  31. 31. To reduce social friction & navigate complexchallenges you need to know your valuesKristopher Stevens, 2007 - http://go.ontario-sea.org/socialfriction 31
  32. 32. Value for moneyHealthyMore jobsReliableResilienceLocal benefit and controlPro-sumerDistributedIntegratedSustainable/RenewableOur culture is our most powerful technology& this is a story about usImage by Preben Maegaard, 2010 – Nordik Folkecenter, Denmark 32Community Power videohttp://go.ontario-sea.org/CommunityPowerVideo
  33. 33. Once we know our values we can figure out whatservices we really need and who/how will we payAlargador, 2013 - www.alargador.org 33
  34. 34. This is about shifting paradigmsDavid Roberts, 2012 (Grist News) - http://tinyurl.com/cwn9w6o34
  35. 35. Solving problems and creatingopportunitiesDavid Roberts, 2012 (Grist News) - http://tinyurl.com/cwn9w6o35
  36. 36. How our power and thermal systemworks nowPreben Maegaard, 2010 – Nordik Folecenter, Denmark – www.folkecentre.com36
  37. 37. How it could workPreben Maegaard, 2010 – Nordik Folecenter, Denmark – www.folkecentre.com37
  38. 38. This should be about integrated systemsRenewables @ 20% + power consumptionQuelle:Prof. Dr. –Ing. habil. IngoStadlerElectricalPower[GW]red consumptiongreen wind & solarproductiononlyBased on Germany‘sconsumption in 2010Johannes Lackmann, 2012 – WestfalenWIND GmbH – www.westfalenwind.de38
  39. 39. Renewables @ 40% + power consumptionElectricalPower[GW]Quelle:Prof. Dr. –Ing. habil. IngoStadlerred consumptiongreen wind & solarproductiononlyJohannes Lackmann, 2012 – WestfalenWIND GmbH – www.westfalenwind.deBased on Germany‘sconsumption in 201039
  40. 40. Renewables @ 80% + power consumptionElectricalPower[GW]Quelle:Prof. Dr. –Ing. habil. IngoStadlerred consumptiongreen wind & solarproductiononlyJohannes Lackmann, 2012 – WestfalenWIND GmbH – www.westfalenwind.deBased on Germany‘sconsumption in 201040
  41. 41. Renewables @ 100% + power consumptionElectricalPower[GW]Quelle:Prof. Dr. –Ing. habil. IngoStadlerred consumptiongreen wind & solarproductiononlyJohannes Lackmann, 2012 – WestfalenWIND GmbH – www.westfalenwind.deBased on Germany‘sconsumption in 201041
  42. 42. Renewables @ 120% + power consumptionElectricalPower[GW]Quelle:Prof. Dr. –Ing. habil. IngoStadlerred consumptiongreen wind & solarproductiononlyJohannes Lackmann, 2012 – WestfalenWIND GmbH – www.westfalenwind.deBased on Germany‘sconsumption in 201042
  43. 43. Smart Sustainable Energy NetworksHeat + Electricity + MobilityPeak power transfer Peak power transferLiquid fuelGas fuelResources:natural gasbiogasbiomass…Offpeak retransferJohannes Lackmann, 2012 – WestfalenWIND GmbH – www.westfalenwind.de43
  44. 44. We need to break out of the electricity only siloPPower demandDemand of Storagecapacity: 100%Power curveInstalled capacity:100%tJohannes Lackmann, 2012 – WestfalenWIND GmbH – www.westfalenwind.de44
  45. 45. And exceed the electricity system boundaryPtPower demandDemand of Storagecapacity: 60%Power curveInstalled capacity:150%Johannes Lackmann, 2012 – WestfalenWIND GmbH – www.westfalenwind.de45
  46. 46. In this new paradigm load shifting is keypowertime / hloadshiftloadshiftnominal load curvePV power curveJohannes Lackmann, 2012 – WestfalenWIND GmbH – www.westfalenwind.de46
  47. 47. Lets talk opportunities!First improve energy management & efficiencyKristopher Stevens, 2010 –Toronto, Canada 47
  48. 48. District Heating and CHP are the single most important improvement of energy efficiency 100% 40% 100% 40% 50% 60% Before Now 10% Conventional Power Plant Combined Heating/Cooling & Power Don’t waste your heatPreben Maegaard, 2012 – Nordik Folecenter, Denmark 48
  49. 49. Upgrade your infrastructureKristopher Stevens, 2012 – M’Chigeeng First Nation, Ontario, Canada 49
  50. 50. •  Solar hot water heaters provide 40-60% needs •  Heating water is 25% of residential energy use •  Space  heating  accounts  for  60  per  cent  of  the  energy  used.    Heat your air or waterVictoria Hollick, 2010 – Solar Wall, Ontario, Canada 50
  51. 51. Harvest the sun for electricityRobert Garcia, 2010 – Farmers for Economic Opportunity, Ontario, Canada 51
  52. 52. Use your manure, food and forest wasteKristopher Stevens, 2008 – Heinzel Farm, Prescott-Russel, Ontario, Canada 52
  53. 53. To  flare  or  engine  /  boiler  Tap into your sewage and landfills53
  54. 54. Capture the windGraham Findlay, 2012 - M’Chigeeng, Ontario, Canada 54
  55. 55. Use your flowing waterRoberto Garcia, 2009 – Sturgeon Falls, Ontario, Canada 55
  56. 56. Convert old industriesAxion and Kristopher Stevens, 2012 – www.axionpower.com 56
  57. 57. Reservoirs, hills and minesHeinrich Bartlett, 2009 – Innenburen, Germany 57
  58. 58. Put your heat in the ground - geothermalKristopher Stevens, 2010 – Planet Traveler Hostel, Toronto, Ontario, Canada 58
  59. 59. Electrify your transportationSun Country Highway, 2012 – Aitikokan, Ontario, Canada 59www.suncountryhighway.ca
  60. 60. So what do we really need?1.  Reliable policy 2.  Brave politicians 3.  Long term framework and targets 4.  Reasonable budgets 5.  Bankable and scalable projects 6.  Local integrated sustainable community action plans 7.  Community networks 8.  More local Heroes! 60
  61. 61. Value for moneyHealthyMore jobsReliableResilienceLocal benefit and controlPro-sumerDistributedIntegratedSustainable/RenewableA stable marketTo know our values!Image by Preben Maegaard, 2010 – Nordik Folkecenter, Denmark 61
  62. 62. Work with us to make OUR vision a realitywww.ontario-­‐sea.org  62
  63. 63. April 9 – 10, 2014 / Exhibition Place Toronto 2014
  64. 64. Kristopher StevensExecutive Directorkristopher@ontario-sea.org416-977-4441www.ontario-sea.orgKristopher Stevens, 2012 – M’Chigeeng First Nation, Ontario, Canada 64
  65. 65. 6259451091510610556545717464668274810109470 20 40 60 80 100TotalBCPrairieOntarioQCAtlanticIncreased costs a great deal (7-9)Minor cost change (4-6)“Thinking about the past two years or so, rate how the following things have impacted your householdenergy costs?” Electricity you use at home from renewable energyDon’t assume…set the narrativeGet the IESO and OEB facts out!65
  66. 66. 66legitimate vested opportunist Social Friction:Three types of concerned stakeholders66  
  67. 67. Take time to understand each otherCommunities are:•  Misinformed•  Concerned•  Frustrated•  Annoyed•  Fearful•  SuspiciousDevelopers are:•  Disengaged•  Divisive•  Secretive•  Non-transparent•  Distrust•  Ignoring (legitimateconcerns)Panel at FIT Supply Chain Forum, 2012 – Toronto, Ontario Canada 67  
  68. 68. Think about how you would like toparticipate…Sherry Arnstein, 1969 – Ladder of Citizen Participation 68  
  69. 69. 69  
  70. 70. FINANCIAL SHARES Price/VoteInvestment varies from one landowner toanother based on capacity to investROI reflects a competitive investment basedon market rates for venture capitalA Preferred share, will berepurchased five years after windfarm is operational$1/YesB Non-repurchasable share alongwith the purchase of class AMatched to A/NoLAND SHARESShares of Exploitable Area Price/VoteShares issued to all signed landowners.Lease option prorates shares according toarea suitable for wind developmentC Shares of exploitable area (landspotentially capable ofaccommodating wind mills).5 shares perhectare/ YesClass D shares are issued to landowners whodo not want wind mills on their land, but whopromise not to sign with any other winddeveloper and accept their neighbours projectD Non-competition of exploitablearea.5 shares perhectare/ NoProximity Shares Price/VoteTo remunerate those making asupplementary effort to live in close proximityto windmillsE Land proximity (landownerssituated within a 550 m.5 shares perhectare/ NoF Residential proximity (issued toproprietors of residences within700m radius of a turbineNumber of sharesdependent onbuilding type/ NoCollaborative/ Land pooling lease table
  71. 71. -­‐$2.89  -­‐$0.71  -­‐$2.53  -­‐$4.00  -­‐$3.00  -­‐$2.00  -­‐$1.00  $0.00  $1.00  Case  1:  New  Nuclear    Replaced  by  Wind  (in  2018)  Case  2:  Natural  Gas    Replaced  by  Wind  (in  2018)  Case  3:  New  Nuclear  Replaced  by  Wind  and  Natural  Gas    (in  2024)  $CAD  (2010)  Effect  on  Monthly  Household  Electricity  Bill  Prices  Comparing  Wind  Energy  Generation  Replacing  Potential  Alternatives  Sources:  ClearSky  Advisors  Inc.  2011;  OPA  2010-­‐2011;  OPA,  IPSP  Consultation  Document  2011;  California  Energy  Commission  2010;  Pembina    Institute  2010;  OPA,  Generation  Procurement  Cost  Disclosure  2008;  Moodys  Investment  Service  2008  We have better options© 2011 ClearSky Advisors Inc. 71  
  72. 72. 12.60  10.74  15.76  13.00  0  5  10  15  20  FIT  Wind   All  Wind   New  Nuclear   Natural  Gas  Cost  (¢/kWh)  Average  Cost  (in  2010$)  per  kWh  of  Electricity    by  Generation  Type  by  2018  Sources:  ClearSky  Advisors  Inc.  2011;  OPA  2010-­‐2011;  OPA,  IPSP  Consultation  Document  2011;  California  Energy  Commission  2010;  Pembina    Institute  2010;  OPA,  Generation  Procurement  Cost  Disclosure  2008;  Moodys  Inverstment  Service  2008  Note:  The  total  wind  category  includes  all  wind  procurement  programs  in  Ontario.  The  FIT  wind    category  includes  FIT  and  Samsung  &  KEPCO  projects.  Both  of  the  2018  costs  for  these  categories  have  been  discounted  to  2010  dollars  to  allow  for  comparison  with  other  generation  types  © 2011 ClearSky Advisors Inc. 72  
  73. 73. Ontario’sLong-TermEnergyPlangovernment is committed to improving the health of Ontarians andate change. Coal-fired plants have been the single largest sourceTalk TWh and desired benefitsOntario Ministry of Energy, 2011 – http://www.mei.gov.on.ca/en/Year Capacityto replaceTWh to replace2015 881 MW 6.42 TWh2017 881 MW 6.42 TWh2019 881 MW 6.42 TWh2020 881 MW 6.42 TWhWind - $738,300,000 Nuke cheap - $1,011,972,000 + liability Nuke expensive - $23,754,000,000 + liability 73  
  74. 74. July  2012  Target soft costs: Stability and predictabilitydrive down costs!74  

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