Change the World                  Change the World
                                                  Thunderbird
         ...
Competitive Governance                                                                                                    ...
Major Waves                                           What We Want
                                                  •   E...
Vacuum
                                                                                                                   ...
GenBank
                                                                                                                  ...
Viral Marketing
                                                Breakthroughs Last 100+ Years
                            ...
The Riskmaster (all rights reserved)
       (Lyrics by Tim Draper)              Needs a “world class CEO.”
               ...
He’s got a mission
             Company vision                 Team fights on against the trend
           An artist’s amb...
He is on top, on top of the world         Chorus:
    At last they see it. Vision unfurled!
            Cashflow landslide...
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Tim Draper - Change The World

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Shown at IBF Thunderbird Conference, 2006.
Check out the Riskmaster song at the end...

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Tim Draper - Change The World

  1. 1. Change the World Change the World Thunderbird Tim Draper Tim Draper, April 4, 2006 What Needs Changing? Business Solves Problems Energy Energy (EnerNoc, Konarka, GreenFuel) Security Security (Lumena, SafeView) Health Care Health Care (Lumenos) Traffic, Pollution Traffic, Pollution (Skype, Festoon, Visto, TagWorld) Poverty Poverty (Sugar CRM, SocialText, World of Good) Education Education (Baidu, DivX, for-profit schools) Roads, Prisons, Airports Roads, Prisons, Airports (Private Alternatives) Governments Make Governments Compete. 1
  2. 2. Competitive Governance Imagine Geographic Borders Fall Chile’s Privatized Social Security Better communication Singapore’s Business Environment Perfect information America’s Religious Freedoms Simplified supply chains Sweden’s Social Security Russia’s Science Education Make Governments compete Cayman’s Corporate Structure For great businesses Internet Tax System For capital No Sarbanes No Oxley No 409A For entrepreneurs The DFJ Network Entrepreneurs are Heroes DFJ Primaxis Toronto, ONT DFJ Portage DFJ ePlanet Long odds to extraordinary outcome Chicago, IL Timberline London Ventures DFJ New England Seattle, WA Cambridge, MA At risk: DFJ Gotham DFJ Frontier New York, NY Sacramento & Santa Barbara, CA Draper Triangle Financial Pittsburgh, PA Draper Fisher Jurvetson Menlo Park, CA Draper Atlantic Reston, VA DFJ ePlanet Zone Ventures Social Beijing Los Angeles, CA DFJ SI Ventures Raleigh, NC & Wasatch Ventures Fort Meyers, FL DFJ ePlanet Salt Lake City, UT, DFJ Mercury Career Singapore Phoenix, AZ & Houston, TX Albuquerque, NM Access Ventures Westminister, CO & Austin, TX 2
  3. 3. Major Waves What We Want • Entrepreneurs – Passion and Energy Arnold – Heroes – Leaders Baidu • Companies – Early Stage companies in New Industries Skype – Unique--Surprise me – Change the World Video • Industries – Large, Changing – Overthrow lazy, bureaucratic incumbents Business Model Planning Consumer Internet Companies: Share and Connect Eliminate: Expense Items, Balance Sheet Items Grow customer base cheaply (viral Reach and Retain Customers Efficiently marketing, leveraged marketing) Win Win Win Frictionless AND Sticky Build a community 3
  4. 4. Vacuum ElectroMechanical Relay Transistor Integrated Circuit Technology Exponentials Tube Calculations per Second per $1000 Dickerson’s Formula for Solved 3D • Evolution Protein Structures, 1961 ‐ 2002 • Computation • Storage • Bandwidth • Internet • Genes mapped • MRI Scan resolution … Not products or companies, but basic technological capabilities Source: Ray Kurzweil, each dot is a computing machine Genome Base Pairs Sequenced Internet Growth: Source: Ray Kurzweil The linear, intuitive view… 4
  5. 5. GenBank Hotmail Subscriber Growth GenBank Growth Acquired 35,000,000 45,000,000,000 12,000,000 40,000,000,000 30,000,000 10,000,000 35,000,000,000 25,000,000 8,000,000 30,000,000,000 Sequences (#) 20,000,000 Base Pairs 25,000,000,000 6,000,000 Base Pairs Sequences 20,000,000,000 15,000,000 4,000,000 15,000,000,000 10,000,000 2,000,000 10,000,000,000 Launch 5,000,000 0 5,000,000,000 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 0 0 1996 1997 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 Date Viral Marketing Virus Marketing Users 14,000,000 SARS Polio Hepatitus B 12,000,000 10,000,000 ICQ 8,000,000 Hotmail Skype 6,000,000 Ebola Astrovirus Hoof in Mouth Kazaa 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Months from First Users 5
  6. 6. Viral Marketing Breakthroughs Last 100+ Years • Phone, Computer, Automobile, Airplane, Microwave, Penicillin, Oil Discovery, Fission Energy, Heart Surgery, CAD, Nanotech, Water Purification, Irrigation, Hydroelectricity, Search Engines, Stock Trading, TV, VCR, Fax Machines, Genetic Engineering, Man on the Moon. The Pill, The Bomb, Radio, Networks, eMail, Banking, Photography, Video Conferencing, Ecology, X-Rays, etc. Breakthroughs Next 20 Years • Fusion Energy, Space Travel, Competitive Governance, 3-D Highways, Complete 10,000-37=9,963 years to go Video History, Non-invasive Security, Near-Thought Communications, Wireless Power Distribution, Privatized Education, 150-Year Lives, Person on Mars, Desalinated Water, 10 Billion People, Cancer & AIDS Cures, Food Drop, Processors>all human brains, Free World Travel, Nanotech, etc. 6
  7. 7. The Riskmaster (all rights reserved) (Lyrics by Tim Draper) Needs a “world class CEO.” Just another million or so Invested all his mattress money Get him to some real cash flow Divorced his Prom Queen hometown honey So tears and sweat can IPO Scraping up his alimony Friends think he’s a little “funny” Chorus: For 15 years he’s been out gunned Bankers demanding blood refund He is the Riskmaster Company’s looking Moribund Lives fast drives faster Even Draper will not fund! Skates on the edge of disaster He is the Riskmaster 7
  8. 8. He’s got a mission Company vision Team fights on against the trend An artist’s ambition Had to lay off his best friend Gut intuition Called a “recession” seems like Fearless and free employee “depression.” No guarantee for the corporate escapee Chapter seven. Is this the end? Chorus: But then a salesman shouts, “We got it!” The company’s gonna show a profit He is the Riskmaster To think the papers rang, “quixotic” Lives fast drives faster The sky has opened astronautic. Skates on the edge of disaster He is the Riskmaster 8
  9. 9. He is on top, on top of the world Chorus: At last they see it. Vision unfurled! Cashflow landslide! He is the Riskmaster Now everybody wants a piece of his hide. Lives fast drives faster Court wants him tried. Press wants him fried. Skates on the edge of disaster Anyone this rich must have lied. He is the Riskmaster Thank You Tim Draper Draper Fisher Jurvetson Tim@DFJ.com 9

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