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Kim Solez Future of Medicine 2013


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Dr. Kim Solez Future of Medicine presentation from Best of Analytics conference May 14, 2013

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Kim Solez Future of Medicine 2013

  1. 1. Kim Solez, MD
  2. 2. SingularityCourse For two years I have taught a courseon Technology and the Future ofMedicine, does not require a medicalbackground, open to all. It has caused me to reflect on themeaning of “Future” and “Medicine”. The Gibson quote seems to be behindpeople charged with talking about thefuture actually talking about the presentand hoping you will not notice. Easierto find visuals and text that way.
  3. 3. SingularityCourse Many presentations about the future of medicineshow present day technology related to genomicsand personalized medicine, smart phone apps. In the future most present day diseases may beeliminated. Medicine of the future will beincreasingly about human enhancement andabout improvements in society that promotehealth and well being. Rudolph Virchow –”Physicians are the naturalattorneys of the poor and the social problemsshould be largely solved by them.”
  4. 4. “Medicine is a social science, and politics is nothing else thanmedicine writ large. Medicine as a social science, as thescience of human beings, has the obligations to point outproblems and to attempt their theoretical solution: thepolitician, the practical anthropologist, must find the means fortheir practical solution. ”– Rudolf Virchow
  5. 5. “It is the curse of humanity that it learns to tolerate even themost horrible situations by habituation. Physicians are thenatural attorneys of the poor, and the social problems shouldlargely be solved by them.”– Rudolf Virchow
  6. 6. SingularityCourse Analytics and big data in medicine are not justabout diseases and treatments. Also about human enhancement and aboutimprovements in society that promote health andwell being. Technology advances themselves closely tied tofuture of medicine, robotics, nanotechnology. In an optimistic view of the future of medicine,medicine is huge, bigger than you ever imagined!
  7. 7. SingularityCourse
  8. 8. SingularityCourseTop ten most popular videos from Technology and Future ofMedicine course LABMP 590 in past 30 days. Vanessa Rogersstudent presentation is #1. Nicholas Lee is #7. Dorian Fentonis #9. Never anticipated such popularity of student videos!
  9. 9. SingularityCourseAnonymous feedback via SurveyMonkey. Authored feedbackas one assignment. Viewership numbers of broadcast qualityvideos provides another sort of feedback, “likes” on YouTubeand Facebook. Michael Woodside nanotechnology video closeto viral. Videos
  10. 10. SingularityCourse The technological singularity occurs as artificialintelligences surpass human beings as thesmartest and most capable life forms on theEarth. Technological development is taken overby the machines, who can think, act andcommunicate so quickly that normal humanscannot even comprehend what is going on. Themachines enter into a "runaway reaction" of self-improvement cycles, with each new generationof A.I.s appearing faster and faster. From thispoint onwards, technological advancement isexplosive, under the control of the machines,and thus cannot be accurately predicted (hencethe term "Singularity"). – Ray Kurzweil
  11. 11. SingularityCourse1) The technological Singularity.2) Existential risks, AI, genomics, and nanotech.Post-scarcity world possible.3) Ways to optimize a positive outcome forhumanity in the co-evolution of humans andmachines.4) The influence of these considerations onmedicine of the future.
  12. 12. SingularityCourse
  13. 13. SingularityCourse(adapted from Moravec 1988 & Kurzweil 2005)?CalculationsperSecondper$1000CalculationsperSecondper$1000YearYear1900 ‘20 ‘40 ‘60 ‘80 ‘20 ‘40 ‘60 ‘802000 210010-1010-5110510101015102010251030Electro-mechanicalRelayTubeTran-sistorIntegratedCircuitsManualcalculationBacteriumWormSpiderLizardMouseMonkeyHuman brainParallelProcessorsQuantumComp.?AllHumanbrains
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  15. 15. SingularityCourse Regulatory oversight that is completely focusedon compliance. Discourages risk-taking andinnovation. Health care doesnt have the same financialreward system. Facebook isnt about to pay $1billion for the latest hot-ticket item in imagingand informatics. Security always trumps information sharing, andso better, faster linkages are constrainedbecause of security concerns, most of which arebogus.
  16. 16. SingularityCourse PBS Nova Program reaches 100 million viewers. Big Bang Theory (the TV show)16 million viewers. Ray Kurzweil TED talk 1.2 million views. Singularity Summit, 9,000 views per video. Kim Solez – Technology and Future of MedicineCourse LABMP 590 1,300 views per video. The course is part of the solution:
  17. 17. SingularityCourse They attempt to surprise the viewer with futuristicstories of the present because it is easy to findgood visuals for things that already exist. The technological Singularity is a very importantpart of the future of medicine, but until now it hasbeen impossible to describe how it will occur andwhat it will look like in a convincing way. This may be the first time you have see apresentation about the Singularity that actuallydescribes it and provides memorable visuals.
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  20. 20. SingularityCourse .Marcus Hutter suggests that there is an element ofhuman insignificance that makes the whole scenario much morechallenging. Also Hutter has created a sort of general AI whichmakes the problem seem more immediate!
  21. 21. SingularityCourse Outside the Singularity looking in it will be whitenoise. Inside the Singularity if everything speeds up atthe same rate we may not notice anything, it mayseem like normal life to us. Even if initially our biological brains count forsomething in our mental processes, very soon theprocessing power of the machine implant willvastly outstrip our biological brains. Our biologicalbrains become insignificant regardless of thefriendliness or lack thereof of the AI.
  22. 22. SingularityCourse Extreme risk taking because we can back ourselvesup from backups if something bad happens. Insignificance, lack of identity. Why wait to createbackups when we have the processing power to runseveral lives at once. Can replicate ourselvesendlessly in seconds! No more waiting 9 months! The world has little incentive to keep identitiesstraight when biological brains contribute so little tomental processes. Bigger not better. Aimlessness, lack of sense of purpose.
  23. 23. SingularityCourse Part of the imagined future could be one where alldisease was eliminated but life was intolerable. Anotherwhere the only diseases are from bioterrorism. The challenge of friendly AI becomes just a small part ofa much larger challenge of creating a friendly world inwhich humans still have lives of significance, humanhistory is retained and extended. A positive outcome is possible, let’s make it likely. We all need to be engaged in ensuring a positiveoutcome for humanity. The future is ours to shape. Weneed to get busy doing that!