1.«! " #$% &(’&) *+(,-%.?»
!"#$"%&#()*&+,%-.%(&
!"#$"%&#()*&+,%-.%(&
/0%.123("%&45-3..#&
/0%.123("%&45-3..#&
657#"5&8-"%9&:.0;"&
657#"5&8-"%9&:.0;"&
Planning Fallacy
<=>??@AB&C?>DEF@G>DEHI&      Planning       Fallacy
wishful thinking        Planning Fallacy
wishful thinking              Planning Fallacyoptimism bias
wishful thinking                               student syndrome                     Planning Fallacyoptimism bias
JKACLFEMLDN&D>O&PEGBME&      ANQOLDN>ME&   50%     75%    99%                     !"#$%/0.#. 01*,%.
E&RN@&S&GB&OQM>?ET&
14%         19%     45%      50%     75%    99%                       !"#$%
student syndrome  wishful thinking                     Planning Fallacyoptimism bias                          procrastinat...
student syndrome  wishful thinking                     Planning Fallacy                                            Parkins...
student syndrome        wishful thinkingperfectionism                           Planning Fallacy                          ...
U+#5(3,#2&)";;&(39#&-"%V"W(&,;&       0#9WW"-(9X)"Y&
delay*effort                  paradox      wishful thinking                      student syndromeperfectionism            ...
delay*effort paradox      wishful thinking                      student syndromeperfectionism                         Plan...
J*&Z@?OF>NN&     2.0-+341  ).4.*,1".56&7.    8.))-- "+-%79."-+:-)17 6-+7-6&7.
delay*effort paradox      wishful thinking                      student syndromeperfectionism                         Plan...
delay*effort paradox      wishful thinking                      student syndromeperfectionism                         Plan...
4x            3x                 2x                      1.5xtime
2.«; #6 19 <6=?»
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy
3.What to do in Kathmandu?
[[&]^_`a&1.2.3.4.5.6.
Project estimates. And fallacies
Project estimates. And fallacies
Project estimates. And fallacies
Project estimates. And fallacies
Project estimates. And fallacies
Project estimates. And fallacies
Project estimates. And fallacies
Project estimates. And fallacies
Project estimates. And fallacies
Project estimates. And fallacies
Project estimates. And fallacies
Project estimates. And fallacies
Project estimates. And fallacies
Project estimates. And fallacies
Project estimates. And fallacies
Project estimates. And fallacies
Project estimates. And fallacies
Project estimates. And fallacies
Project estimates. And fallacies
Project estimates. And fallacies
Project estimates. And fallacies
Project estimates. And fallacies
Project estimates. And fallacies
Project estimates. And fallacies
Project estimates. And fallacies
Project estimates. And fallacies
Project estimates. And fallacies
Project estimates. And fallacies
Project estimates. And fallacies
Project estimates. And fallacies
Project estimates. And fallacies
Project estimates. And fallacies
Project estimates. And fallacies
Project estimates. And fallacies
Project estimates. And fallacies
Project estimates. And fallacies
Project estimates. And fallacies
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Project estimates. And fallacies

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Fallacies of project estimates. Done at dnepr.agilebasecamp.org

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Project estimates. And fallacies

  1. 1. 1.«! " #$% &(’&) *+(,-%.?»
  2. 2. !"#$"%&#()*&+,%-.%(&
  3. 3. !"#$"%&#()*&+,%-.%(&
  4. 4. /0%.123("%&45-3..#&
  5. 5. /0%.123("%&45-3..#&
  6. 6. 657#"5&8-"%9&:.0;"&
  7. 7. 657#"5&8-"%9&:.0;"&
  8. 8. Planning Fallacy
  9. 9. <=>??@AB&C?>DEF@G>DEHI& Planning Fallacy
  10. 10. wishful thinking Planning Fallacy
  11. 11. wishful thinking Planning Fallacyoptimism bias
  12. 12. wishful thinking student syndrome Planning Fallacyoptimism bias
  13. 13. JKACLFEMLDN&D>O&PEGBME& ANQOLDN>ME& 50% 75% 99% !"#$%/0.#. 01*,%.
  14. 14. E&RN@&S&GB&OQM>?ET&
  15. 15. 14% 19% 45% 50% 75% 99% !"#$%
  16. 16. student syndrome wishful thinking Planning Fallacyoptimism bias procrastination
  17. 17. student syndrome wishful thinking Planning Fallacy Parkinson’s lawoptimism bias procrastination
  18. 18. student syndrome wishful thinkingperfectionism Planning Fallacy Parkinson’s law optimism bias procrastination
  19. 19. U+#5(3,#2&)";;&(39#&-"%V"W(&,;& 0#9WW"-(9X)"Y&
  20. 20. delay*effort paradox wishful thinking student syndromeperfectionism Planning Fallacy Parkinson’s law optimism bias procrastination
  21. 21. delay*effort paradox wishful thinking student syndromeperfectionism Planning Fallacy Parkinson’s law optimism bias procrastination delay accumulation
  22. 22. J*&Z@?OF>NN& 2.0-+341 ).4.*,1".56&7. 8.))-- "+-%79."-+:-)17 6-+7-6&7.
  23. 23. delay*effort paradox wishful thinking student syndromeperfectionism Planning Fallacy Parkinson’s law optimism bias procrastination delay accumulation
  24. 24. delay*effort paradox wishful thinking student syndromeperfectionism Planning Fallacy Parkinson’s law optimism bias procrastination delay accumulation
  25. 25. 4x 3x 2x 1.5xtime
  26. 26. 2.«; #6 19 <6=?»
  27. 27. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy
  28. 28. 3.What to do in Kathmandu?
  29. 29. [[&]^_`a&1.2.3.4.5.6.

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