1.
what’s the problem?

2.
Denver Intl. Airport

3.
Denver Intl. Airport

4.
Eurofighter Typhoon

5.
Eurofighter Typhoon

6.
Sydney Opera House

7.
Sydney Opera House

8.
Vicious Cycle in IT BUSINESS WANTS A LOT WE GIVEBUSINESS STARTS UNREALISTIC TO PRESS ESTIMATES IT WE FAIL TO BECOMES EVEN DELIVER HARDER TO DELIVER

9.
Let’s run an experiment!

10.
A simple task + = $1,10The bat costs $1,00 more than the ball.How much does the ball cost?

11.
Planning Fallacyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy

12.
wishfulthinking optimism bias Planning Fallacy

13.
Student were asked to assign probabilities of completion time 50% 75% 99 % 1.Nov 20.Nov 10.Dec

14.
what would you think?

15.
real completion rate14% 19% 45 % 50% 75% 99 % 1.Nov 20.Nov 10.Dec

16.
Estimating time in real life

17.
wishful thinking optimism bias Planning Fallacystudent’ssyndrome procrastination

18.
wishful thinking optimism biasperfectionism Planning Fallacy procrastination student syndrome

19.
“Anything less than perfect is unacceptable”“Work takes as much time as you have” Parkinson’s Law

20.
gps paradox optimism bias wishful thinkingperfectionism Planning Fallacystudent syndrome procrastination

21.
gps paradox wishful thinking optimism bias perfectionism Planning Fallacystudent syndrome procrastination delay propagation

22.
E. Goldratt Delays get accumulated.Early completions get lost.

23.
gps paradox wishful thinking optimism biasperfectionism Planning Fallacy student syndrome procrastination delay propagation

24.
4x 3x 2x 1.5xtime

25.
what to do?

26.
ONE MORE TIME1. Create …2. Never …3. … size …4. Measure …5. … = … /…6. …. customers7. Incrementally …