JUST STOP ASKING
«WHEN?»
it is the time to stop the slavery
krivitsky@scrumguides.com
@alexeykri

I’m one of the scrum guides

… when I am not coaching

BUSINESS HAS
ITS WANTS
WE ESTIMATE
WE FAIL MAKING
PROMISES
BUSINESS STARTS
TO PUSH

THE VICIOUS CICLE
BUSINESS HAS
ITS WANTS
WE ESTIMATE
WE FAIL MAKING
PROMISES
BUSINESS STARTS
TO PUSH
UNDER PRESSURE
WE ESTIMATE WORSE
WE FAIL AGAIN
BUSINESS PUSHES
HARDER

A TYPICAL PROJECT …
#NOESTIMATES
we should have
multiplied by 2x….

Denver Intl. Airport

Denver Intl. Airport

Eurofighter Typhoon

Eurofighter Typhoon

Sydney Opera House

Sydney Opera House

*CHAOSREPORT от Standish Group
Statistically a software
development project will take
x2.0 MONEY
x1.6 TIME

we’re good a solving
simple tasks!

1. BOTH ITEMS COST $1,10
2. THE BAT IS ONE DOLLAR MORE EXPENSIVE
HOW MUCH DOES THE BALL COST?

we’re good a solving
simple tasks…
NOT!

The “software”
of our brain is buggy.

DON’T READ THIS TEXT
AND DON’T CALCULATE
3x3 = ?

WATER
SO_P
SHOWER

SALAD
SO_P
SPAGHETTI

WATER
SOAP
SHOWER
SALAD
SOUP
SPAGHETTI

3x3 =
THIS IS DONE BY YOUR «RABBIT»
abc def

“How much time will
this feature take?”
2 days

“How much time will
this feature take?”
How much time do
I have?
2 days

“How much time will
this feature take?”
How much time do
I have?
How do I feel
about it?
2 days

“How much time will
this feature take?”
How much time do
I have?
How do I feel
about it?
How good is the
spec?
2 days

“How much time will
this feature take?”
How much time do
I have?
How do I feel
about it?
How good is the
spec?How much time will
they allow me?
2 days

JUMPING
TOCONCLUSIONS

SOMETIMES FAST DECISIONS ARE GOOD

THE RABBIT IS ALSO GOOD AT

HOW MUCH IS 17x38 ?

WHAT KILLED THE ROMAN EMPIRE?

MCMLXXXIV
good food:)
WHAT KILLED THE ROMAN EMPIRE?

“INTUITION”
fast decisions
low energy consumption huge energy consumption
RABBIT vs. TURTLE
“LOGIC”
complex stuff

RABBIT vs. TURTLE 2
WHEN YOU’RE ESTIMATING
WHICH SYSTEM IS ENGAGED?

How old was
Mahatma Gandhi
when he died?

2. How old was he
when he died?
1a. Was Gandhi less than 100
years old when he died?
1b. Was Gandhi less more than
60 years old when he died?

1a. Was Gandhi less than 100
years old when he died?
1b. Was Gandhi less more than
60 years old when he died?
83
average
68
average

MEET LUCY.
SHE IS SHOCKED.

LUCY.
SHOCKED.

BUTEVENIFYOUR
LAZYTURTLEWOKE
UP….

THE LAWS OF NATURE
WORK AGAINST YOU

Delays get
accumulated

Delays get
accumulated

Delays get
accumulated

Delays get
accumulated

Early completion
gets lost
Delays get
accumulated
Eliyahu M. Goldratt – suggested buffers

time
probability
1
THE ESTIMATES WE ARTICULATE ARE
THE EARLIEST PROBABLE TIME

KRIVITSKY’s zapadLAW
IT IS SO MUCH EASIER TO BE LATE
THAN TO COME EARLIER

BUT THE CORE PROBLEM IS NOT IN
ESTIMATIONS AND THEIR INNACURACY
RANDOMNESS

DEADLINE
(over there)YOU RELEASE
* procrastination is [TBD]

YOU
42
SOMEONE CRAZY
242
12
142
SOMEONE BRAVE
SOMEONE ELSE

83
average
68
average
1. Was Gandhi less than 100
years old when he died?
1. Was Gandhi less more than
60 years old when he died?
AVERAGE FOR ALL is 76
THE RIGHT ANSWER is 78 !

as a user blah…
given when then foo…

YOU’RE
KIDDING
S
M
L
MORE
GROOMING

2
5
2
1
8
3
2
5
5
2
3
2
Σ
sprints3
2

2
5
2
1
8
3
2
5
5
2
3
2
sprints
3
2

2
5
2
1
8
3
2
5
5
2
3
2
YOUR VELOCITY
sprints
3
2

2
5
2
1
8
3
2
5
5
2
3
2
sprints
3
2
YOUR VELOCITY

2
5
2
1
8
3
2
5
5
2
3
2
sprints
3
2

спринты
PROBLEM of
ESTIMATIONS ?

спринты
This is REALITY.
and POSSIBILITIES.

forget all slides above…

forget all slides above…
and remember
3 advices

STOP FOCUSING ON ESTIMATIONS
AND ACCURACY
(as they will always suck)
#1

#2
START HAVING DISCUSSIONS AROUND
YOUR CAPACITY
AND SCOPE

#3 (in parallel)
CONTINUOUSLY FOCUS ON
IMPROVING YOUR CAPACITY
AND
MINIMIZING THE WORK TO BE DONE

JUST STOP ASKING
«WHEN?»
it is the time to stop the slavery
krivitsky@scrumguides.com
@alexeykri