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JUST STOP ASKING «WHEN?» it is the time to stop the slavery krivitsky@scrumguides.com @alexeykri
I’m one of the scrum guides
… when I am not coaching
BUSINESS HAS ITS WANTS WE ESTIMATE WE FAIL MAKING PROMISES BUSINESS STARTS TO PUSH
THE VICIOUS CICLE BUSINESS HAS ITS WANTS WE ESTIMATE WE FAIL MAKING PROMISES BUSINESS STARTS TO PUSH UNDER PRESSURE WE EST...
A TYPICAL PROJECT … #NOESTIMATES we should have multiplied by 2x….
Denver Intl. Airport
Denver Intl. Airport
Eurofighter Typhoon
Eurofighter Typhoon
Sydney Opera House
Sydney Opera House
*CHAOSREPORT от Standish Group Statistically a software development project will take x2.0 MONEY x1.6 TIME
we’re good a solving simple tasks!
1. BOTH ITEMS COST $1,10 2. THE BAT IS ONE DOLLAR MORE EXPENSIVE HOW MUCH DOES THE BALL COST?
we’re good a solving simple tasks… NOT!
The “software” of our brain is buggy.
DON’T READ THIS TEXT AND DON’T CALCULATE 3x3 = ?
WATER SO_P SHOWER
SALAD SO_P SPAGHETTI
WATER SOAP SHOWER SALAD SOUP SPAGHETTI
3x3 = THIS IS DONE BY YOUR «RABBIT» abc def
“How much time will this feature take?” 2 days
“How much time will this feature take?” How much time do I have? 2 days
“How much time will this feature take?” How much time do I have? How do I feel about it? 2 days
“How much time will this feature take?” How much time do I have? How do I feel about it? How good is the spec? 2 days
“How much time will this feature take?” How much time do I have? How do I feel about it? How good is the spec?How much tim...
JUMPING TOCONCLUSIONS
SOMETIMES FAST DECISIONS ARE GOOD
THE RABBIT IS ALSO GOOD AT
HOW MUCH IS 17x38 ?
WHAT KILLED THE ROMAN EMPIRE?
MCMLXXXIV good food:) WHAT KILLED THE ROMAN EMPIRE?
“INTUITION” fast decisions low energy consumption huge energy consumption RABBIT vs. TURTLE “LOGIC” complex stuff
RABBIT vs. TURTLE 2 WHEN YOU’RE ESTIMATING WHICH SYSTEM IS ENGAGED?
How old was Mahatma Gandhi when he died?
2. How old was he when he died? 1a. Was Gandhi less than 100 years old when he died? 1b. Was Gandhi less more than 60 year...
1a. Was Gandhi less than 100 years old when he died? 1b. Was Gandhi less more than 60 years old when he died? 83 average 6...
MEET LUCY. SHE IS SHOCKED.
LUCY. SHOCKED.
BUTEVENIFYOUR LAZYTURTLEWOKE UP….
THE LAWS OF NATURE WORK AGAINST YOU
Delays get accumulated
Delays get accumulated
Delays get accumulated
Delays get accumulated
Early completion gets lost Delays get accumulated Eliyahu M. Goldratt – suggested buffers
time probability 1 THE ESTIMATES WE ARTICULATE ARE THE EARLIEST PROBABLE TIME
KRIVITSKY’s zapadLAW IT IS SO MUCH EASIER TO BE LATE THAN TO COME EARLIER
BUT THE CORE PROBLEM IS NOT IN ESTIMATIONS AND THEIR INNACURACY RANDOMNESS
DEADLINE (over there)YOU RELEASE * procrastination is [TBD]
YOU 42 SOMEONE CRAZY 242 12 142 SOMEONE BRAVE SOMEONE ELSE
83 average 68 average 1. Was Gandhi less than 100 years old when he died? 1. Was Gandhi less more than 60 years old when h...
as a user blah… given when then foo…
YOU’RE KIDDING S M L MORE GROOMING
2 5 2 1 8 3 2 5 5 2 3 2 Σ sprints3 2
2 5 2 1 8 3 2 5 5 2 3 2 sprints 3 2
2 5 2 1 8 3 2 5 5 2 3 2 YOUR VELOCITY sprints 3 2
2 5 2 1 8 3 2 5 5 2 3 2 sprints 3 2 YOUR VELOCITY
2 5 2 1 8 3 2 5 5 2 3 2 sprints 3 2
спринты PROBLEM of ESTIMATIONS ?
спринты This is REALITY. and POSSIBILITIES.
forget all slides above…
forget all slides above… and remember 3 advices
STOP FOCUSING ON ESTIMATIONS AND ACCURACY (as they will always suck) #1
#2 START HAVING DISCUSSIONS AROUND YOUR CAPACITY AND SCOPE
#3 (in parallel) CONTINUOUSLY FOCUS ON IMPROVING YOUR CAPACITY AND MINIMIZING THE WORK TO BE DONE
JUST STOP ASKING «WHEN?» it is the time to stop the slavery krivitsky@scrumguides.com @alexeykri
Stop asking WHEN?
Stop asking WHEN?
Stop asking WHEN?
Stop asking WHEN?
Stop asking WHEN?
Stop asking WHEN?
Stop asking WHEN?
Stop asking WHEN?
Stop asking WHEN?
Stop asking WHEN?
Stop asking WHEN?
Stop asking WHEN?
Stop asking WHEN?
Stop asking WHEN?
Stop asking WHEN?
Stop asking WHEN?
Stop asking WHEN?
Stop asking WHEN?
Stop asking WHEN?
Stop asking WHEN?
Stop asking WHEN?
Stop asking WHEN?
Stop asking WHEN?
Stop asking WHEN?
Stop asking WHEN?
Stop asking WHEN?
Stop asking WHEN?
Stop asking WHEN?
Stop asking WHEN?
Stop asking WHEN?
Stop asking WHEN?
Stop asking WHEN?
Stop asking WHEN?
Stop asking WHEN?
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Stop asking WHEN?

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Often wrong estimations are blamed as causes of project failures.

In this talk I'm explaining why we as human beings inevitably suck at estimating our work in time. Irrational behaviour, cognitive biases, and laws of project nature work against a team trying to make estimates.

Stop asking "when" - this is a wrong question.

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Stop asking WHEN?

  1. 1. JUST STOP ASKING «WHEN?» it is the time to stop the slavery krivitsky@scrumguides.com @alexeykri
  2. 2. I’m one of the scrum guides
  3. 3. … when I am not coaching
  4. 4. BUSINESS HAS ITS WANTS WE ESTIMATE WE FAIL MAKING PROMISES BUSINESS STARTS TO PUSH
  5. 5. THE VICIOUS CICLE BUSINESS HAS ITS WANTS WE ESTIMATE WE FAIL MAKING PROMISES BUSINESS STARTS TO PUSH UNDER PRESSURE WE ESTIMATE WORSE WE FAIL AGAIN BUSINESS PUSHES HARDER
  6. 6. A TYPICAL PROJECT … #NOESTIMATES we should have multiplied by 2x….
  7. 7. Denver Intl. Airport
  8. 8. Denver Intl. Airport
  9. 9. Eurofighter Typhoon
  10. 10. Eurofighter Typhoon
  11. 11. Sydney Opera House
  12. 12. Sydney Opera House
  13. 13. *CHAOSREPORT от Standish Group Statistically a software development project will take x2.0 MONEY x1.6 TIME
  14. 14. we’re good a solving simple tasks!
  15. 15. 1. BOTH ITEMS COST $1,10 2. THE BAT IS ONE DOLLAR MORE EXPENSIVE HOW MUCH DOES THE BALL COST?
  16. 16. we’re good a solving simple tasks… NOT!
  17. 17. The “software” of our brain is buggy.
  18. 18. DON’T READ THIS TEXT AND DON’T CALCULATE 3x3 = ?
  19. 19. WATER SO_P SHOWER
  20. 20. SALAD SO_P SPAGHETTI
  21. 21. WATER SOAP SHOWER SALAD SOUP SPAGHETTI
  22. 22. 3x3 = THIS IS DONE BY YOUR «RABBIT» abc def
  23. 23. “How much time will this feature take?” 2 days
  24. 24. “How much time will this feature take?” How much time do I have? 2 days
  25. 25. “How much time will this feature take?” How much time do I have? How do I feel about it? 2 days
  26. 26. “How much time will this feature take?” How much time do I have? How do I feel about it? How good is the spec? 2 days
  27. 27. “How much time will this feature take?” How much time do I have? How do I feel about it? How good is the spec?How much time will they allow me? 2 days
  28. 28. JUMPING TOCONCLUSIONS
  29. 29. SOMETIMES FAST DECISIONS ARE GOOD
  30. 30. THE RABBIT IS ALSO GOOD AT
  31. 31. HOW MUCH IS 17x38 ?
  32. 32. WHAT KILLED THE ROMAN EMPIRE?
  33. 33. MCMLXXXIV good food:) WHAT KILLED THE ROMAN EMPIRE?
  34. 34. “INTUITION” fast decisions low energy consumption huge energy consumption RABBIT vs. TURTLE “LOGIC” complex stuff
  35. 35. RABBIT vs. TURTLE 2 WHEN YOU’RE ESTIMATING WHICH SYSTEM IS ENGAGED?
  36. 36. How old was Mahatma Gandhi when he died?
  37. 37. 2. How old was he when he died? 1a. Was Gandhi less than 100 years old when he died? 1b. Was Gandhi less more than 60 years old when he died?
  38. 38. 1a. Was Gandhi less than 100 years old when he died? 1b. Was Gandhi less more than 60 years old when he died? 83 average 68 average
  39. 39. MEET LUCY. SHE IS SHOCKED.
  40. 40. LUCY. SHOCKED.
  41. 41. BUTEVENIFYOUR LAZYTURTLEWOKE UP….
  42. 42. THE LAWS OF NATURE WORK AGAINST YOU
  43. 43. Delays get accumulated
  44. 44. Delays get accumulated
  45. 45. Delays get accumulated
  46. 46. Delays get accumulated
  47. 47. Early completion gets lost Delays get accumulated Eliyahu M. Goldratt – suggested buffers
  48. 48. time probability 1 THE ESTIMATES WE ARTICULATE ARE THE EARLIEST PROBABLE TIME
  49. 49. KRIVITSKY’s zapadLAW IT IS SO MUCH EASIER TO BE LATE THAN TO COME EARLIER
  50. 50. BUT THE CORE PROBLEM IS NOT IN ESTIMATIONS AND THEIR INNACURACY RANDOMNESS
  51. 51. DEADLINE (over there)YOU RELEASE * procrastination is [TBD]
  52. 52. YOU 42 SOMEONE CRAZY 242 12 142 SOMEONE BRAVE SOMEONE ELSE
  53. 53. 83 average 68 average 1. Was Gandhi less than 100 years old when he died? 1. Was Gandhi less more than 60 years old when he died? AVERAGE FOR ALL is 76 THE RIGHT ANSWER is 78 !
  54. 54. as a user blah… given when then foo…
  55. 55. YOU’RE KIDDING S M L MORE GROOMING
  56. 56. 2 5 2 1 8 3 2 5 5 2 3 2 Σ sprints3 2
  57. 57. 2 5 2 1 8 3 2 5 5 2 3 2 sprints 3 2
  58. 58. 2 5 2 1 8 3 2 5 5 2 3 2 YOUR VELOCITY sprints 3 2
  59. 59. 2 5 2 1 8 3 2 5 5 2 3 2 sprints 3 2 YOUR VELOCITY
  60. 60. 2 5 2 1 8 3 2 5 5 2 3 2 sprints 3 2
  61. 61. спринты PROBLEM of ESTIMATIONS ?
  62. 62. спринты This is REALITY. and POSSIBILITIES.
  63. 63. forget all slides above…
  64. 64. forget all slides above… and remember 3 advices
  65. 65. STOP FOCUSING ON ESTIMATIONS AND ACCURACY (as they will always suck) #1
  66. 66. #2 START HAVING DISCUSSIONS AROUND YOUR CAPACITY AND SCOPE
  67. 67. #3 (in parallel) CONTINUOUSLY FOCUS ON IMPROVING YOUR CAPACITY AND MINIMIZING THE WORK TO BE DONE
  68. 68. JUST STOP ASKING «WHEN?» it is the time to stop the slavery krivitsky@scrumguides.com @alexeykri

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