Cummings ks slides 0820

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Cummings ks slides 0820

  1. 1. Gaming Comes to Town, and Racing Takes It On the Chin Presentation to the Kansas Racing and Gaming Commission by Will Cummings / Cummings Associates August 18, 2008 1
  2. 2. Will E. Cummings Cummings Associates 2
  3. 3. Questions, Please! ( at any time ) 3
  4. 4. Overview Cummings background What ails racing? Responses . . . . . . Slots at Tracks Gravity model methodology Projections for KS tracks 4
  5. 5. Will E. Cummings Cummings Associates 5
  6. 6. Will Cummings Graduate of MIT’s Sloan School of Management Has directed studies of leisure and entertainment businesses in more than forty states, provinces and foreign countries, with particular focus on gaming and wagering Have dealt with (for, against, or as independent expert) more new race tracks than anyone else alive 6
  7. 7. Race Track / Casino Analyses Iowa New York New England Pennsylvania Indiana Alberta South Dakota New Mexico The Caribbean . . . and many more 7
  8. 8. Gov’t Agencies / Regulatory Bodies Iowa Racing and Gaming Commission South Dakota Commission on Gaming Horse Racing Alberta New Jersey Casino Control Commission Connecticut Division of Special Revenue many State Racing Commissions Massachusetts State Lottery Virginia State Lottery Connecticut Lottery Corporation Atlantic Lottery Corporation 8
  9. 9. What Ails Racing? 9
  10. 10. Off-Shore Simulcasting: Protecting Horsemen’s Rights (and Adding to Their Revenues) Presentation to the National HBPA Winter Convention Will E. Cummings Cummings Associates January 24, 2006 10
  11. 11. Racing Must Adapt to the New Realities of the Marketplace Materials for the Fourth Racing Congress HTA / TRA / USTA Will E. Cummings Cummings Associates February 9, 2006 11
  12. 12. 12
  13. 13. “Gross Annual Wager” (Win) Slots + VLTs $48.9 bn [Traditional] Lotteries $21.0 bn Table Games $12.0 bn Pari-Mutuel Racing $3.6 bn Cummings estimates based on Eugene Martin Christiansen’s Gross Annual Wager statistics for 2006 presented in International Gaming & Wagering Business, November 2007. 13
  14. 14. 14
  15. 15. 15
  16. 16. Annual Spending / Adult Slots + VLTs $600 - $700 Table Games $70 - $200 [Traditional] Lotteries $50 - $170 Pari-Mutuel Racing $10 - $40 Cummings estimates for adults who live within ten miles of a mainstream outlet. 16
  17. 17. 17
  18. 18. 18
  19. 19. 19
  20. 20. 20
  21. 21. Racing’s Responses: Lower Taxes Expand Distribution Simulcasting Off-Track Betting Account Wagering . . . Internet Slots at Tracks 21
  22. 22. 22
  23. 23. 23
  24. 24. 24
  25. 25. The Simulcasting Revolution Much more competitive Good for the customer Better to give than to receive Most tracks net importers Most horsemen run at such tracks Squeeze on “outsiders” . . . 25
  26. 26. In North America, We Are: Fragmented Small in relation to competitors Still struggling with simulcasting . . . and competition . . . Market Power?? 26
  27. 27. 27
  28. 28. Gaming & Racing Operators’ Revenues. $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 $4,500 Harrahs M G M M irage O ntario G am ing Boyd Q uebec G am ing Colony C apital M ohegan Sun Trum p Foxwoods Penn National Isle ofC apriArgosy W ynn (estannual)Station Alberta G am ing Am eristarVenetian M agna Ent. Aztar M ystic Lake Herbst BC G am ing CarlIcahn Pinnacle Ent.Churchill Soaring Eagle Seneca Nation Turning Stone M ilwaukee Bingo NYRA 28
  29. 29. (Simulcasting) Issues Distribution Pricing Content 29
  30. 30. Places to Bet in N. America: Horses: 1,027 30
  31. 31. Places to Bet in N. America: Casinos etc: 1,378 Horses: 1,027 31
  32. 32. Places to Bet in N. America: VLTs / Slots: 19,695 Casinos etc: 1,378 Horses: 1,027 32
  33. 33. Places to Bet in N. America: Lottery Tickets: 214,284 VLTs / Slots: 19,695 Casinos etc: 1,378 Horses: 1,027 33
  34. 34. “Price” of a bet (house edge): Blackjack/Craps: ~ 1% 34
  35. 35. “Price” of a bet (house edge): Blackjack/Craps: ~ 1% Slots/VLTs: ~ 7% 35
  36. 36. “Price” of a bet (house edge): Blackjack/Craps: ~ 1% Slots/VLTs: ~ 7% Instant Ticket (MA): 24% 36
  37. 37. “Price” of a bet (house edge): Blackjack/Craps: ~ 1% Slots/VLTs: ~ 7% Instant Ticket (MA): 24% Exacta at Suffolk Downs: 26% 37
  38. 38. “Content” Issues Is our TV “gripping”?? (Poker: not just the railcam) Diversity of Products Casinos: cards, dice, wheels, slots Lotteries: instants, megabuck lottos, fast-action keno, even racing games More “Bettable” races 38
  39. 39. Slots at Tracks 39
  40. 40. 40
  41. 41. 41
  42. 42. 42
  43. 43. 43
  44. 44. 44
  45. 45. 45
  46. 46. 46
  47. 47. Win / Slot / Day – ? 47
  48. 48. 48
  49. 49. 49
  50. 50. Win / Slot / Day in 2006 # Slots Pop’n W/S/D Illinois 9,892 12.9mn $478 Indiana 18,936 6.3mn $336 Iowa 15,967 3.0mn $206 Mississippi 34,712 2.9mn $194 Nevada 206,648 2.5mn $110 50
  51. 51. What’s In It For Kansas? 51
  52. 52. All Four(?) Zones: Downside: $536mn Baseline: $669mn Upside: $797mn (all excluding facilities whose viability is in doubt) 52
  53. 53. Issues with Slots at Kansas Tracks Low revenues High “tax” rate Low-tax competition 53
  54. 54. Why “Gravity Model?” 54
  55. 55. 55
  56. 56. 56
  57. 57. 57
  58. 58. 58
  59. 59. 59
  60. 60. 60
  61. 61. 61
  62. 62. 62
  63. 63. “Gravity Models” – Overview Location Location Size Everything Else 63
  64. 64. Location I: The Closer, the Better 64
  65. 65. Las Vegas Visitation/Distance 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Distance (miles) LasVegasVisitors/000adults 65
  66. 66. Mississippi Visitors/Day/000 0.0 4.0 8.0 12.0 16.0 20.0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Distance (miles) MississippiVisitors/Day/000adults 66
  67. 67. Casino X / players’ club data $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Distance from Casino X (miles) AverageAnnualSpending/Adul 67
  68. 68. Casino Y: players’ club data $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Distance from Casino Y (miles) AverageAnnualSpending/Adul 68
  69. 69. Las Vegas Visitation/Distance 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Distance (miles) LasVegasVisitors/000adults 69
  70. 70. 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 ln(distance) ln(LasVegasvisitors/0000) 70 Las Vegas Visitation / log-log
  71. 71. Las Vegas: slope of the curve y = -1.0082x + 10.75 R2 = 0.9631 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 ln(distance) ln(LasVegasvisitors/0000) 71
  72. 72. Mississippi: steeper slope y = -1.4088x + 11.25 R2 = 0.9353 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 ln(distance) ln(Mississippivisitors/day/0000) 72
  73. 73. Laughlin: much steeper slope y = -1.9121x + 16.299 R2 = 0.9552 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 ln(distance) ln(Laughlinvisitors/0000) 73
  74. 74. Casino X: isolated market y = -0.8982x + 7.8944 R 2 = 0.6804 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 ln(distance from Casino X) ln(adjustedannualspending/adult) 74
  75. 75. Casino Y: competition afar 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 ln(distance from Casino Y) ln(annualspending/adult) 75
  76. 76. Casino Y: less competition close y = -0.886x + 8.0919 R2 = 0.8505 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 ln(distance from Casino Y) ln(annualspending/adult) 76
  77. 77. Car Counts at Simulcasting: y = 64.382x-1.3125 R2 = 0.9255 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 0 20 40 60 80 100 Distance from Xxxxxx Xxxx (miles) Cars/1000AdultPopulation 77
  78. 78. Car Counts at Live Racing: y = 175.04x-1.127 R2 = 0.909 0.0 6.0 12.0 18.0 24.0 30.0 36.0 0 20 40 60 80 100 Distance from Xxxxxx Xxxx (miles) Cars/1000AdultPopulation 78
  79. 79. Car Counts at Simulcasting (2) y = -1.3125x + 11.073 R2 = 0.9255 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 ln(Distance from Xxxxxx Xxxx) ln(Cars/1000Adults) 79
  80. 80. Car Counts at Live Racing (2) y = -1.127x + 12.073 R2 = 0.909 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 ln(Distance from Xxxxxx Xxxx) ln(Cars/1000Adults) 80
  81. 81. Location I: The Closer, the Better =“Friction” 81
  82. 82. Location II: Reilly’s Law 82
  83. 83. Reilly’s Law: ms ~ S/d2 Where ms : market share S : “size” of each trade center d : distance 83
  84. 84. Newton’s Law: F = m/d2 Where F : gravitational force m : mass (of each body) d : distance 84
  85. 85. Reilly’s Law: ms ~ S/d2 Where ms : market share S : casino size (capacity) d : distance 85
  86. 86. Newton’s Law: F = m/d2 Where F : gravitational force m : mass (of each body) d : distance 86
  87. 87. Reilly’s Law: ms ~ S/d2 Where ms : market share S : casino size (capacity) d : distance / travel time 87
  88. 88. Size Matters 88
  89. 89. Reilly’s Law: ms ~ S/d2 Where ms : market share S : “size” of each trade center d : distance 89
  90. 90. More Slots, More Spending y = 43.304x + 207.05 R2 = 0.8607 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 "Density" of Slots in Iowa Markets ( = Number of Slots / 000 Adults) SlotSpending/Adult/Year 90
  91. 91. Calculations 91
  92. 92. 92
  93. 93. 93
  94. 94. Other Things Matter, Too 94
  95. 95. “Other Things” that REALLY Matter Micro-Access Spaciousness Slot Mix Fit & Finish Management Marketing / Player Rewards 95
  96. 96. Useful Assets Hotel Structured Parking Variety of Dining Choices Retail Entertainment Players’ Club 96
  97. 97. Comparisons / “Power Ratings” 97
  98. 98. 98 Exhibit 11: Slot "Power Ratings" for Major Regional Gaming Facilities (Spending per Distance-Adjusted Adult Compared to "Midwest Standard" of $700) Northeastern US Kansas and Other Markets Markets Its Neighbors Midwest & West Deadwood, SD 129.9 S Dakota Indian avg. (8) 124.7 e Colorado (2) 120.1 Upstate Michigan avg. 120.0 e Kansas Natives avg. 117.3 e Terribles Lakeside. IA 113.6 Mississippi / Louisiana 115.5 Horseshoe / Bluffs Run, IA 113.1 Diamond Jo Worth, IA 113.1 Iowa Indian average 111.7 e Ameristar Council Bluffs, IA 111.4 Upstate Wisconsin avg. 110.0 e Mt. Pleasant, MI 108.1 e IOC Marquette, IA 107.0 Metropolis, IL/KY 107.6 Harrahs Council Bluffs, IA 106.7 Albuquerque, NM avg. 107.4 Dubuque Greyh Park, IA 106.7 Emmetsburg, IA 106.6 Harrahs Joliet, IL 106.4 Other New Mexico avg. 105.7 Atlantic City, NJ 104.3 Riverside, IA 104.3 IOC Boonville, MO 103.4 Harrahs NKCMO 102.7 Wisconsin Dells 101.6 e Mohegan Sun, CT 100.0 Prairie Meadows, IA 99.9 IOC Waterloo, IA 99.6 Ameristar KCMO 98.0 Michigan City, IN 97.9 Dubuque Riverboat, IA 97.3 Harrahs W St Louis 97.0 Argosy Riverside, MO 96.6 Aurora (Chicago), IL 96.4 Foxwoods, CT 95.6 Argosy Sioux City, IA 96.1 Elgin (Chicago) IL 96.0 Joliet Empress, IL 95.3 IOC Bettendorf, IA 94.0 Southern Delaware 93.7 Catfish Bend Burlington, IA 93.7 East St Louis, IL 93.7 Niagara (NY) casino 94.6
  99. 99. How Do They Do? 99
  100. 100. 100 Exhibit 12: Recent Projections Compared to Actual Results (Annual Slot Win / $million) Projection / Source Actual / Source Facility / Market: Zia Park / New Mexico $53.7 (1) $68.9 (2) Emmetsburg / Iowa $23.4 (3) $26.4 (4) Worth County / Iowa $34.2 (3) $67.5 (4) Riverside / Iowa $82.0 (3) $85.8 (4) IOC Waterloo / Iowa $96.8 (3) $76.9 (4) $30.2 $49.9 Tioga Downs NY (5) (6)$42.2
  101. 101. What’s In It For Kansas? 101
  102. 102. Northeast Zone 102
  103. 103. 103
  104. 104. 104 Exhibit A-1: Analysis in Brief ($mn / 2007$) "As Was" 2007 -- Before Any New Facilities # Slots Power Slot Win win/slot/day Total Win Gaming Facility / Location: Rating ($mn) ($mn) Woodlands KCK Speedway KCK Stateline KCK Middle Camptown Cherokee Corner Cherokee Galena Sumner Mulvane Sumner Wellington Dodge City ---------- ---------- ---------- Subtotal Kansas Taxable 0 $0.0 $0.0 KCK 7th Street 4 Northeast KS Natives 2,693 117 $180.8 $184 $205.4 ---------- ---------- ---------- Total Kansas 2,693 $180.8 $184 $205.4 memo: Northeast Zone memo: Southeast Zone memo: South Central Zone Argosy Riverside 1,969 96.6 $164.2 $228 $182.0 IOC KC 1,523 78.1 $77.3 $139 $83.8 Harrahs NKC 1,783 102.8 $175.4 $270 $202.3 Ameristar KC 3,012 98.0 $222.5 $202 $252.6 Sugar Creek ---------- ---------- ---------- Subtotal KCMO 8,287 $639.4 $211 $720.7 Greater KC Total 8,287 $639.4 $211 $720.7 Greater Joplin Total 3,641 $121.1 $91 $136.1 Greater Wichita Total 3,632 $91.1 $69 $102.4
  105. 105. 105 Exhibit B-1: Projection in Brief ($mn / 2007$) Baseline / Likely Future -- New Facilities Elsewhere (inc. Powhattan) # Slots Power Slot Win win/slot/day Total Win Gaming Facility / Location: Rating ($mn) ($mn) Woodlands KCK Speedway KCK Stateline KCK Middle Camptown Cherokee Corner Cherokee Galena Wichita Gh Park Sumner Mulvane Sumner Wellington Dodge City ---------- ---------- ---------- Subtotal Kansas Taxable 0 $0.0 $0.0 KCK 7th Street 4 Northeast KS Natives 3,443 117 $191.4 $152 $217.6 ---------- ---------- ---------- Total Kansas 3,443 $191.4 $152 $217.6 memo: Northeast Zone memo: Southeast Zone memo: South Central Zone Argosy Riverside 1,969 96.6 $161.6 $225 $179.2 IOC KC 1,330 80.1 $74.9 $154 $81.2 Harrahs NKC 1,783 102.8 $172.2 $265 $198.5 Ameristar KC 3,012 98.0 $218.6 $199 $248.1 Sugar Creek ---------- ---------- ---------- Subtotal KCMO 8,094 $627.2 $212 $707.0 Greater KC Total 8,094 $627.2 $212 $707.0 Greater Joplin Total 7,063 $145.8 $57 $163.9 Greater Wichita Total 4,632 $93.4 $55 $104.9
  106. 106. 106 Exhibit B-2: Projection in Brief ($mn / 2007$) Baseline -- KCK 7th Street Casino Added (Solo) # Slots Power Slot Win win/slot/day Total Win Gaming Facility / Location: Rating ($mn) ($mn) Woodlands KCK Speedway KCK Stateline KCK Middle Camptown Cherokee Corner Cherokee Galena Wichita Gh Park Sumner Mulvane Sumner Wellington Dodge City ---------- ---------- ---------- Subtotal Kansas Taxable 0 $0.0 $0.0 KCK 7th Street 450 78 $19.4 $118 $19.4 4 Northeast KS Natives 3,443 117 $189.9 $151 $215.8 ---------- ---------- ---------- Total Kansas 3,893 $209.3 $147 $235.2 memo: Northeast Zone memo: Southeast Zone memo: South Central Zone Argosy Riverside 1,969 96.6 $155.1 $216 $171.9 IOC KC 1,330 80.1 $71.7 $148 $77.8 Harrahs NKC 1,783 102.8 $166.4 $256 $191.9 Ameristar KC 3,012 98.0 $212.3 $193 $241.0 Sugar Creek ---------- ---------- ---------- Subtotal KCMO 8,094 $605.6 $205 $682.7 Greater KC Total 8,544 $625.0 $200 $702.1 Greater Joplin Total 7,063 $145.6 $56 $163.7 Greater Wichita Total 4,632 $93.3 $55 $104.8
  107. 107. 107 Exhibit B-3: Projection in Brief ($mn / 2007$) Baseline -- Woodlands Added (Solo, with 800 slots) # Slots Power Slot Win win/slot/day Total Win Gaming Facility / Location: Rating ($mn) ($mn) Woodlands 800 95 $46.2 $158 $46.2 KCK Speedway KCK Stateline KCK Middle Camptown Cherokee Corner Cherokee Galena Wichita Gh Park Sumner Mulvane Sumner Wellington Dodge City ---------- ---------- ---------- Subtotal Kansas Taxable 800 $46.2 $158 $46.2 KCK 7th Street 450 78 $18.7 $114 $18.7 4 Northeast KS Natives 3,443 117 $188.8 $150 $214.6 ---------- ---------- ---------- Total Kansas 4,693 $253.7 $148 $279.4 memo: Northeast Zone 800 $46.2 $158 $46.2 memo: Southeast Zone memo: South Central Zone Argosy Riverside 1,969 96.6 $150.3 $209 $166.6 IOC KC 1,330 80.1 $69.8 $144 $75.7 Harrahs NKC 1,783 102.8 $162.5 $250 $187.4 Ameristar KC 3,012 98.0 $207.7 $189 $235.7 Sugar Creek ---------- ---------- ---------- Subtotal KCMO 8,094 $590.3 $200 $665.5 Greater KC Total 9,344 $655.2 $192 $730.4 Greater Joplin Total 7,063 $145.3 $56 $163.3 Greater Wichita Total 4,632 $93.2 $55 $104.7
  108. 108. 108 Exhibit B-5: Projection in Brief ($mn / 2007$) Baseline -- Kansas Speedway Added ($150/day) # Slots Power Slot Win win/slot/day Total Win Gaming Facility / Location: Rating ($mn) ($mn) Woodlands 800 95 $25.1 $86 $25.1 KCK Speedway 3,960 100 $216.8 $150 $249.2 KCK Stateline KCK Middle Camptown Cherokee Corner Cherokee Galena Wichita Gh Park Sumner Mulvane Sumner Wellington Dodge City ---------- ---------- ---------- Subtotal Kansas Taxable 4,760 $241.9 $139 $274.3 KCK 7th Street 450 78 $13.2 $81 $13.2 4 Northeast KS Natives 3,443 117 $164.4 $131 $186.8 ---------- ---------- ---------- Total Kansas 8,653 $419.5 $133 $474.3 memo: Northeast Zone 4,760 $241.9 $139 $274.3 memo: Southeast Zone memo: South Central Zone Argosy Riverside 1,969 96.6 $109.6 $152 $121.5 IOC KC 1,330 80.1 $54.4 $112 $59.0 Harrahs NKC 1,783 102.8 $127.7 $196 $147.2 Ameristar KC 3,012 98.0 $168.4 $153 $191.1 Sugar Creek ---------- ---------- ---------- Subtotal KCMO 8,094 $460.0 $156 $518.9 Greater KC Total 13,304 $715.2 $147 $806.4 Greater Joplin Total 7,063 $142.1 $55 $159.6 Greater Wichita Total 4,632 $91.5 $54 $102.8
  109. 109. 109
  110. 110. 110 Exhibit B-5: Projection in Brief ($mn / 2007$) Baseline -- Kansas Speedway Added ($150/day) # Slots Power Slot Win win/slot/day Total Win Gaming Facility / Location: Rating ($mn) ($mn) Woodlands 800 95 $25.1 $86 $25.1 KCK Speedway 3,960 100 $216.8 $150 $249.2 KCK Stateline KCK Middle Camptown Cherokee Corner Cherokee Galena Wichita Gh Park Sumner Mulvane Sumner Wellington Dodge City ---------- ---------- ---------- Subtotal Kansas Taxable 4,760 $241.9 $139 $274.3 KCK 7th Street 450 78 $13.2 $81 $13.2 4 Northeast KS Natives 3,443 117 $164.4 $131 $186.8 ---------- ---------- ---------- Total Kansas 8,653 $419.5 $133 $474.3 memo: Northeast Zone 4,760 $241.9 $139 $274.3 memo: Southeast Zone memo: South Central Zone Argosy Riverside 1,969 96.6 $109.6 $152 $121.5 IOC KC 1,330 80.1 $54.4 $112 $59.0 Harrahs NKC 1,783 102.8 $127.7 $196 $147.2 Ameristar KC 3,012 98.0 $168.4 $153 $191.1 Sugar Creek ---------- ---------- ---------- Subtotal KCMO 8,094 $460.0 $156 $518.9 Greater KC Total 13,304 $715.2 $147 $806.4 Greater Joplin Total 7,063 $142.1 $55 $159.6 Greater Wichita Total 4,632 $91.5 $54 $102.8
  111. 111. Southeast Zone 111
  112. 112. 112
  113. 113. 113
  114. 114. Conclusions 114
  115. 115. Issues with Slots at Kansas Tracks Low revenues: $25-$26mn High “tax” rate: 60% Low-tax competition . . . Therefore marginal ROI 115
  116. 116. “You don’t get what you deserve – you get what you negotiate” Chester Karrass 116
  117. 117. Gaming Comes to Town, and Racing Takes It On the Chin Presentation to the Kansas Racing and Gaming Commission by Will Cummings / Cummings Associates August 18, 2008 117
  118. 118. Will E. Cummings Cummings Associates 135 Jason Street Arlington, MA 02476 (781) 641-1215 cummingsw@aol.com 118

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