Taking the Long View: ICT Trends & Developments

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Presentation to the foreign and exchange students at the Tallinn Technical University about the technological development in the world and technology trends as seen in 2011

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  • More than 300 IT professionals working at the campus of Tallinn University of Technology. Half of them are foreigners. Top business R&D performer in Estonia (10% of total BERD). Social mission: actively contributing to the popularisation of science subjects at schools, developing new curriculas and R&D networks with universities (STAK). After selling Skype to eBay its 4 Estonian co-founders created VC company Ambient Sound Investment (ASI) investing into crazy technology based ideas (acting more like business angels). World no 1 in long distance calls (before AT&T)
  • Free access to the Internet is like constitutional right for Estonians.
  • Lot of functions: sign your contracts or vote in elections or make on-line payments or buy bus ticket.
  • Online casino developer. Israeli VC started, Las Vegas background. Development in Tartu and Tallinn and India. Management in Israeli. Management desisions not made in Estonia. 300 IT specialists in Est, mainly Java programming and design. 70% annual growth, incl Asia. Licence contracts with online casinos is the business model.
  • Kaasakiskuvad visioonid ei sünni juhuse läbi ega ka riigiametnike poolt kuulutatuna.
  • Kasutuselevõtt + oma lahendustesse integreerimine
  • New technologies tend to follow different trajectories of hype, hope, and despair as they are discovered by different groups of people and finally adopted (or ignored) by consumers. Gartner actually goes ahead and charts this hype cycle for different technologies. Its latest hype cycle for 2008, shown above, is making the rounds. (It was released in July, but is just now reaching the upward trajectory in its own cycle). According to Gartner’s view of the world, the visibility of new technologies peaks early as initial excitement gains steam. This phase is followed by a “trough of disillusionment” in which inflated expectations hit reality. But as technologies prove themselves, their visibility begins to grow again at a more measured pace. Of course, not all technologies go through these phases. Some just drop of the face of the Earth never to be heard from again; some wander around for years and don’t hit their hype cycle until later in life, and some build visibility at a steadier pace. But it is still a useful visual metaphor, especially for high-profile technologies that do exhibit these traits. So where are we in the hype cycle exactly? Some technologies still moving towards the “peak of inflated expectations” include cloud computing, microblogging, and 3-D printing. Public Virtual Worlds, RFID, Web 2.0, and Wikis are troughing. And emerging into the “slope of enlightenment” are Tablet PCs (oh, yeah) and location-aware applications (thank you, iPhone).
  • Kondratievi lained e tsüklid; oma töös kasutab ka TTÜs õpetav Venezueela professor Carlotta Perez
  • IKT sektor umbes 1/3 maailma erasektori T&A investeeringutest; bio-farmaatsiatööstus 1/5 ja autotööstus 1/5 Valdav enamus tehnoloogiaid, mis 10 aasta pärast mainstream , täna mingil kujul juba olemas.
  • Glitch Drops Google Stock Price $200 in Four Minutes, Wiping Out $62 Billion [Oops] from Gizmodo, The Gadget Blog by matt buchanan At probably like the worst time ever for your stock to plummet harder than a meteor on a collision course with Bruce Willis, a glitch knocked $200 off of Google's stock price—that's half—in the span of four minutes as the markets were closing today. $62 billion. Erased. In four minutes. The glitch has been fixed, bringing it back to the correct price of $407, but some trades actually did go through at the bargain basement price. While they'll be repealed, it shows you that it's so crazy out there even computers are going nuts right now. The   May 6, 2010 Flash Crash was a   United States   stock market crash   on May 6, 2010 in which the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged about 1000 points — or about nine percent — only to recover those losses within minutes.   Temporarily, $1 trillion in market value disappeared.
  • Glitch Drops Google Stock Price $200 in Four Minutes, Wiping Out $62 Billion [Oops] from Gizmodo, The Gadget Blog by matt buchanan At probably like the worst time ever for your stock to plummet harder than a meteor on a collision course with Bruce Willis, a glitch knocked $200 off of Google's stock price—that's half—in the span of four minutes as the markets were closing today. $62 billion. Erased. In four minutes. The glitch has been fixed, bringing it back to the correct price of $407, but some trades actually did go through at the bargain basement price. While they'll be repealed, it shows you that it's so crazy out there even computers are going nuts right now. The   May 6, 2010 Flash Crash was a   United States   stock market crash   on May 6, 2010 in which the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged about 1000 points — or about nine percent — only to recover those losses within minutes.   Temporarily, $1 trillion in market value disappeared.
  • Born global, asutatud 1998 Perpetual beta Google +85 eri teenust Google began as a research project in 1996, Google.com domain went online in 1997 30 million pages indexed in 1998, 1 billion pages indexed in 2000, 8 billion pages indexed in in 2004, 1 Trillion pages indexed in in 2008 It currently runs over 1 million computer servers in data centers around the world Google search handles over 1 billion searches per day, 7.2 billion daily page views, 87.8 billion monthly worldwide searches conducted on Google sites Google’s global search market share is 85% Revenue in 2000 was $19 million, loss of $14 million; In 2009 Google’s revenue was nearly $23 billion, profit was $6.5 billion 97% is the percentage of revenue from advertising Over 19,000 employees, 37% are research staff, 37% are sales staff 45% of Google’s products are currently in Beta The Google Driverless car named the ‘Stanley’ won the DARPA Grand challenge and the $2 million in prize money from the US Department of Defense in 2005
  • Taking the Long View: ICT Trends & Developments

    1. 1. TAKING THE LONG VIEW: ICTTRENDS & DEVELOPMENTS November 1, 2011 @ TTU Kristjan Rebane, Estonian Development Fund
    2. 2. Kristjan Rebane At the Estonian Development Fund as Expert of Information Society since 2007 Before that almost 8 years at the Estonian Information Society Foundation – starting up the IT College and – establishing IT education spport programme Tiger University Previously more than 7 years at the Open Estonia Foundation (local branch of Soros Foundations) in areas of IT, economics, health care and several scholarship schemes
    3. 3. Preview into today’s topics1 About Development Fund2 Technological Development In the World3 Technology Trends As Seen In 2011
    4. 4. 1 About Development Fund  Founded as a public law institution  By Riigikogu (the Parliament) in 2007  With two main tasks: – Venture capital investments – Foresight  www.arengufond.ee/eng  Twitter: Arengufond
    5. 5. 1 Ignoranti, quem portum petat, nullus suus ventus est (If one does not know to which port one is sailing, no wind is favourable) SENECA
    6. 6. 1 Development Fund’s Foresight work Ad hoc Ad hoc analysis / analysis / In-house or In-house or commissione commissioned d 13
    7. 7. 2 Where are new techologies born? TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE WORLD
    8. 8. 2 About technology and the futureEstonia in 2018+ • A typical household has over 1000 microprocessors • Petabite (1 PB = 1 millon GB) is the most commonly used data unit • The volume of video calls in minutes exceeds that of voice calls
    9. 9. 2 And we don’t know, what the future holds...  In 2004 there didn’t exist 10 of the top professions of 2020!  Today’s student in the USA will have had 10-14 jobs by the age of 38* * Source: USA Dept of Education
    10. 10. 2 Hype Cycle, Gartner 2011
    11. 11. 2 Long waves
    12. 12. 2 Technology adoption speeds up Time to reach 50 million users Once the rules of game in the world changed every 1000 years, then 300, then 100 and then (in the 20th century) every 25 years ...but the human nature has remained basically the same! Source: Forrester Research, Morgan Stanley, 2008
    13. 13. 2 Where are the new techologies born? Where there are more people dedicated to creating them! Source: www.worldmapper.org
    14. 14. 2 Already today: dependence on a computer On October 1, 2008 A computer glitch erased HALF of Google’s stock value ($200 of $400) i.e. $62 billion in just 4 minutes Source: TechCrunch.com, Google Stock Falls $200 as Market Closes
    15. 15. 2 Already today: dependence on a computer On October 1, 2008 A computer glitch erased HALF of Google’s stock value ($200 of $400) i.e. $62 billion in just 4 minutes
    16. 16. 2 23
    17. 17. 2 ICT Grand Vision in the world Trust & ICT for Societal ICT for Economic Science and Confidence Challenges Challenges Engineering Applied ICT for Major Societal and Economic Challenges Enabling anywhere anytime natural and enjoyable access to ICT services for ALL Miniaturised, low cost Pervasive mobile Natural interaction low power components wireless, trustful with ‘knowledge’ & systems infrastructureµ, nano & opto- µ and nano Communication Software Knowledge User electronics systems & networking technologies technologies interfaces More in EST_IT@2018 report!
    18. 18. 2 Where is the world going? Computing everywhere Very small compinents and microsystems with low energy consumption Image: Wired Magazine, Artifacts from the future
    19. 19. 2 Where is the world going? Communications everywhere Ubiquitous, mobile, wireless and trustworthy infrastructure Image: Wired Magazine, Artifacts from the future
    20. 20. 2 Where is the world going? Data everywhere Data management and user interfaces Image: Wired Magazine, Artifacts from the future
    21. 21. TECHNOLOGY TRENDSAS SEEN IN 2011
    22. 22. 3 Technology trends of 2011 1. Mobile – Early Innings Growth, Still… 2. User Interface – Text → Graphical → Touch / Sound / Move 3. Mega-Trend of 21st Century = Empowerment of People via Connected Mobile Devices Based on Mary Meeker’s presentation at Web 2.0 Summit San Francisco on October 18, 2011
    23. 23. 3 Mobile: Smartphones Surpassed Feature Phone Shipments
    24. 24. 3 Mobile: Android ‘Phone’ Adoption Has Ramped Even Faster than iPhone
    25. 25. 3 Mobile Usage – Big & Ramping Fast
    26. 26. 3 Mobile Search – Growing Rapidly
    27. 27. 3 User Interface: Natural User Interface Revolution–Now in Touch/Sound/Move Era
    28. 28. 3 Sound is going to be bigger than video… ‘Record’ is the new QWERTY. Alexander Ljung, Founder & CEO, SoundCloud
    29. 29. 3 User Interface: The Next Big Thing(s)? Those Two Big Things on the Sides of Your Head…
    30. 30. 3 Global Information Flow – Real-Time + Fast + Broad 16 Minutes Before / After Japan Earthquake on 3/11/11 Snapshots of @replies From & To Twitter Users in Japan 2:30pm Japan Time 2:46pm Japan Time Before Earthquake / Tsunami After Earthquake / Tsunami Note: Yellow lines indicate tweets coming out of Japan; Pink lines indicate tweets coming into Japan. Source: Twitter. „In 140-character bites, the story unfolded: the shock and terror; the sense of human frailty mixed with lifesaving information; the messages of those seeking comfort and those seeing some kind of divine retribution, all mixing at hyper-speed.“ (LATimes, 3/11/11)
    31. 31. 3 Global Information Flow – Remote Locations Getting Connected  85% of world’s population covered by commercial wireless signals, providing greater reach vs. electrical grid (80%).*  200MM+ farmers in India receiving government payments / subsidies via mobile devices.** Source: *GSM Association, United Nations. **There are 90MM Kisan credit card users and 118MM job card users, both of which do not require bank accounts but utilize mobile phones as identity verification / payment confirmation, per Ministry of Rural Development, Government of India.
    32. 32. 3 Closing Thoughts  Economy – Often darkest before dawn. At least we know what the problems are. Now we need the resolve to fix them. Across-the-board sacrifice needed.  Tech Industry – Wow! Unprecedented times! If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs…* “The majority of our products today will be gone in ten years,” Samsung’s chairman Lee Kun-hee, in January (via the Economist Oct 11, 2011). *Rudyard Kipling - ‘If’
    33. 33. THE FUTURE IS ALREADY HERE! (It’s just not very evenly distributed)Kristjan Rebanekristjan.rebane@arengufond.eeSkype callto://kristjan.rebane/http://www.arengufond.ee/eng/foresight/estit2018/

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