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Seven Sins of Strategic Planning

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Seven Sins of Strategic Planning

  1. 1. The Seven Sins of Strategic Planning Arnold Hirshon
  2. 2. ContentService Potential Strategic Opportunities for Libraries Technology Organizational Resources Leadership
  3. 3. Potential Strategic Opportunities for Libraries Organizational Resources (staff, financial, facilities) • Consider potential reallocation of current resources • Advocate for new library programs and projects • Engage in external development of funds • Consider the implications of potential library facility changes and whether there should be virtual or physical library outposts on campus outside of the library Service • Develop new service models • Embed the library into faculty and student research processes Content • Advocate for open access • Expand access to primary source material through digitization • Effectively transition and balance print & electronic collections • Move from a collection to service orientation: from asset management to advocates for action Leadership • Achieve an appropriate and acceptable rate of organizational change • Determine the appropriate level of presence regionally and nationally Technology • Upgrade available technologies • Fully integrate technology applications within the curriculum and research services
  4. 4. Moving From Opportunity to Action Through Strategic Planning
  5. 5. From Planning to Assessment assess inform investigate instruct innovate integrate Content Access Operations Systems Space
  6. 6. Before We Begin Sinning • What is the process? • Facilitate or assess? • Who owns the process?
  7. 7. The Seven Deadly Sins of Strategic Planning 1. Failure to plan effectively: no plans or taking too long 2. Failure to investigate environmental changes 3. Failure of vision: too little innovation/stretch, too many sacred cows, or too much blue sky 4. Failure to focus and execute plans: too little attention to implementation or reallocation resources 5. Failure to be agile and respond to unanticipated changes • Too much hierarchy & bureaucracy, too little empowerment 6. Failure to establish accountability (group & individual) 7. Failure to assess against meaningful success metricsbut
  8. 8. How to Prevent Failure
  9. 9. Preventing Failure, Ensuring Success Sin Solution Sloth Fail to plan Implement a planning process Listen and explore Develop scenarios and encourage innovation Develop effective implementation strategies, structures, and reallocations Foster a learning organization Designate individuals or positions within the plan Diligence Embed accountability and metrics in plan, & assess performance Fail to understand the environment KindnessEnvy Lust Greed Pride Wrath Fail to demonstrate vision Chastity Fail to focus Temperance Fail to demonstrate agility Humility Fail to establish accountability Patience Gluttony Fail to assess level of success Abstinence
  10. 10. Critical Step: The Environmental Scan • Launches the process – Stimulates thinking, introduces possibilities, and brings a new sense of mission, vision, and goals • Go beyond the SWOT • Go beyond library literature and practices [Shakespeare] had a kind of assimilative intelligence, which allowed him to pull together lots of disparate fragments of knowledge, but there is almost nothing that speaks of hard intellectual application in his plays … -- Bill Bryson
  11. 11. The Environmental Scan • Process: investigate potential changes in: – Society (economy, demographics, politics, etc.) – Technology – Education and learning – Library practices (internal operations) • Caveats – 100% prediction accuracy is impossible – Do not need to master the concept or technology, but grasp the transformative nature of the change – Change may occur but in a different form or timeframe
  12. 12. Environmental Scan: Examples of Issues Society • Privacy and data security • Collaboration Education and Learning • Generation Y: raised from birth with IT, they are highly effective information scanners and grazers, but their skills not well honed as critical thinkers or information analysts • Adoption of gaming technologies Content and Service • Intellectual property changes • Workflow efficiency Technology • Massive high density storage • E-service becomes m-service • Gaming everywhere, and web (not separate apps) becomes the platform • Cloud computing • Beyond the Next Gen Web
  13. 13. How to Read the Environment: Paul Saffo’s Rules for Effective Forecasting 1. Define the cone of uncertainty • The shape of the future is a cone: easier to visualize the near term, harder over longer periods of time 2. Look for the S curve • Things take longer to arrive than you expect • The form of the change is different than expected 3. Embrace the things that do not fit • Ask “why does this bother me?” 4. Hold strong opinions weakly • Reach a strong conclusion quickly and then try to dismantle it 5. Look back twice as far as you look forward • Perceive underlying patterns and the constants • There is a deep unchanging structure • Do not use history selectively to support your conclusions 6. Know when not to make a forecast • When uncertainty is great, wait for things to settle down before making a forecast • It is not the pace, but the simultaneity and cross-impact of curves • Keep broad peripheral vision, be comfortable with uncertainty, and do not prematurely try to narrow the cone of uncertainty The things that do not change are vastly greater than the things that do change.
  14. 14. Societal Changes Affecting Libraries: Generation Y
  15. 15. Societal Changes Affecting Libraries: Generation Y • Unique social attributes shape their perception of interactions • More apt to like style, fun, and technology – consume all types of digital media – heavily use wireless services on mobile phones • Measure task, not time* – Apply different measures of accountability – Seek compensation for what they produce • Design approaches to reach Gen Y – Immediacy – Gen Y literacy – Individualism – social interactivity http://www.forrester.com/Research/Document/Excerpt/0,7211,43977,00.html http://www.forrester.com/Research/Document/Excerpt/0,7211,43647,00.html http://www.forrester.com/Research/Document/Excerpt/0,7211,43150,00.html * Tamara J. Erickson. “Task, Not Time: HBR Breakthrough Ideas for 2008. Feb. 2008: 19
  16. 16. Societal Changes: Libraries and the Google Generation C:filestempjisc-report-google-generation.pdf Librarians need a much better understanding of how people actually search virtual libraries and use content. … There is a real danger that the library professional will swept aside by history. • Horizontal information seeking – ~60% of e-journal users view no more than three pages & 65% never return • Navigation – Spend as much time searching as they do viewing actual content • Viewers – Spend little time on sites for e-books (4 minutes) and e-journals (8 minutes) – Browse titles, contents pages, abstracts, not reading in the traditional sense • Squirreling – Academic users squirrel away content in free downloads – No evidence that downloads are actually read • One size does not fit all – User behavior diverse by geography, gender, type of university, status • Seek authoritative information – Users assess authority and trust within seconds – Dip and cross-check sites and by rely on favored brands
  17. 17. Societal Changes Affecting Libraries: The Gamer Disposition – Key Attributes (John Seely Brown & Douglas Thomas) Bottom-line and results oriented meritocracy • Improvement, not rewards • Embedded assessment through points and rankings Belief in the power of a diverse team Thrive on change • Want to transform the world they inhabit Perceive learning as fun • Overcome obstacles • Convert new knowledge into action “The Gamer Disposition.” Harvard Business Review, Feb 2008: 28
  18. 18. “Technologies want to survive, and they reinvent themselves to go on.” – Paul Saffo
  19. 19. Potential Technologies Affecting Libraries
  20. 20. Potential Technologies Affecting Libraries: Overview • Meta-level increases in computer storage and computing power – Grid computing – Cloud computing • Human aided computing • Application of alternate reality games • Growth of mobile computing • Next Generation Web
  21. 21. Massive Storage: IBM Petrabyte Storage • A current hard drive today maximum today is about one terabyte (TB) = 1,000 GB • Petrabyte (PB) – 1 PB = 1,000 TB – Cf: the “Wayback Machine” that currently archives the entire history of the Web requires only 2 petrabytes of storage http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2704,2243161,00.asp Source: eWeek
  22. 22. Potential Technologies Affecting Libraries Human Aided-Computing (Microsoft Think System) • Control computers by thought to make the computer understand you and what you are doing • Use the brain’s ability to parallel process and work on multiple tasks while the computer feeds in other information • Could loan your “unused brain cycles” for distributed computing http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2704,2243164,00.asp Source: eWeek
  23. 23. Potential Technologies Affecting Libraries Alternate Reality Games Provide training in hard-to-master skills * – Create clear structure for collaboration – Open authorship – Protovation (prototype & test experimental solutions) to augment knowledge and talent – Experience multiple cycles for success – Service users participate to invent new products and services and test market assumptions • Avatars becoming more life-like ** – Show natural gestures and emotions through facial expressions and movements * Jane MacGonigal. “Making Alternate Reality the New Business Reality.” HBR Feb. 2008: 29 ** Judith Donath. “Giving Avatars Emote Control.” HBR Feb. 2008: 31
  24. 24. Potential Technologies Affecting Libraries Metaverse: The Next Web • Example: Second Life • Dominant web interface within five years • Replace websites that have limited abilities for mass interactivity – IBM developing ways to move avatars from one metaverse to another • Employ interactive multiple-player gaming technology and avatars • Potentially important channel for education • Future issues: standards, security, network reliability, privacy, and intellectual property Milos Sarvary. “The Metaverse: TV of the Future?” Harvard Business Review (Feb 2008): 30 “It took decades for TV networks to learn how to efficiently address audiences with appropriate content and advertising. … [C]ompanies had better start to experiment with the technology while it is a slide show.” – Milos Sarvary
  25. 25. The Future of M-computing?
  26. 26. Potential Technologies Affecting Libraries m=ec2 mobile = electronic computing2 • E-services becoming M-services – M-service will soon generate 25% of all retail sales – Some airlines now use m-boarding passes • 42% want to use it as a boarding pass – Airlines will use m-messaging for on-board services, rebooking, baggage pickup, and ticket purchases • Mobile technology is rapidly advancing – iPhone software development kit – Google Android – Windows Mobile
  27. 27. Should Google Buy Apple? Google + Apple = Gapple Microsoft + Yahoo = Microhoo Pros • iPhone + Google Apps – the hottest consumer device + customized Google apps – Enables collaborative enterprise m-computing • Gapple vs. Microhoo – Gapple gains desktop & mobile market share – Enables mobile advertising – iPhones increases use of Google Spreadsheets, YouTube, etc. – Forces Microhoo to forgo cloud computing aspirations Cons • Too costly and risky – Apple valuation = $108 billion • Too much product overlap, too many incompatible systems – Google = open source Apple = proprietary systems • Google’s Android: D.O.A. – Google believes iPhone has limited market growth potential compared to Android – But Google not successful bidder for mobile airwaves Source: eWeek http://www.eweek.com/c/a/Messaging-and-Collaboration/Top-5-Reasons-Google-ShouldShouldnt-Buy-Apple/2/
  28. 28. Social Networking and Mobile Computing • There are far more mobile subscribers (3.3 billion) mobile phone subscribers than Internet users • ~50 million people currently use mobile phones for social networking • Will grow to ~270 million within five years • Mobile social networks use GPS location capabilities –GyPSii’s SpaceMe: shows European user location information in real time on a map with photos, etc. –Bliin users update and show location every 15 seconds –BuzzCity’s MyGamma: 2.5M users from developing countries with low Internet and PC penetration –Itsmy.com exists only in the mobile world and gained >1M users from March 1 through March 5, 2008 –AOL, Yahoo, and Nokia have initiatives to create discrete communities out of mobile phone users Victoria Shannon. “Social Networking Moves to the Cellphone.” New York Times (March 6, 2008) http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/06/technology/06wireless.html?ref=technology “]T]he U.S. venture capital community … [is] myopic. They can’t see the global significance of what is happening. [GyPSii] could have more users in one year than Facebook had in three.”
  29. 29. Mobile Computing: E-Book Status Scott Morrison. “Amazon Hopes to Resolve 'Kindle' Backlog Within Weeks. (Wall Street Journal: 3/21/2008) • Kindle sold out within the 5.5 hours • Amazon won’t reveal how many were sold • Are there are production issues or is Amazon creating the perception of high demand? • Anecdotal publisher reports: Kindle may be selling briskly
  30. 30. Emerging Portable Devices • Designed by Nokia, RISD, MIT, & Helsinki University of Technology • Provides travel, mapping, GPS, and location-aware features • Doubles as a watch when not in use • Has a multi-touch, removable screen • Provides access to travel guides, local businesses, Wi-Fi, public transportation info, and more • RFID provides location-based content http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2704,2243147,00.asp Flex & Fold Displays • Larger-format electronic paper expected soon The R66 Mobile Device Polymer Vision Readius PARC Pocket Display Source: eWeek
  31. 31. Potential Technologies Affecting Libraries The Next Generation Web • Open development environment – Rapid deployment of open source software, including to replace standard software (Linux, Open Office, IBM Lotus Symphony, Koha, Evergreen) • Mobile device broadband, e.g., Femtocell – broadband coverage via mobile computing • Widespread deployment of commercial products via cloud computing – MS Silverlight – Google Gears – Google Sites http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.solegy.com/blog/eric/wp-content/uploads/2006/10/ubiquisys%2520diagram.gif&imgrefurl=http://www.solegy.com/blog/eric/%3Fp%3D59&h=411&w=410&sz=50&hl=en&start=3&tbnid=hjcMTtkxGQRLTM:&tbnh=125&tbnw=125&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dfemtocell%26gbv%3D2%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DG Femtocell: a cost effective means for mobile operators to make new 3G services available to customers at home without making those services available over the Internet through WiFi *
  32. 32. Chris Anderson: The Future of Everything is Free • The price of bandwidth and storage is dropping even faster than the price of processing power • The cost of doing business online points to zero – Web scale = attract the most users for centralized resources to spread costs over larger audiences • Google model expands from cheap to free – The Gift Economy: Wikipedia (no ads, no cross-subsidy) – Open source, social networking, user- generated content lead to free labor created and consumed with no expectation of payment A decade and a half into the great online experiment, the last debates over free versus pay online are ending. Every industry that becomes digital eventually becomes free. A decade and a half into the great online experiment, the last debates over free versus pay online are ending. Every industry that becomes digital eventually becomes free. http://www.wired.com/print/techbiz/it/magazine/16-03/ff_free
  33. 33. Chris Anderson: Is the Future of Everything Really Free? … but Free is not always Free • Low-cost digital distribution will make the summer blockbuster free – Theaters will make money from concessions and sale of premium movie-going experience – Airfares low or zero, replaced by many fees for baggage handling, food, etc.
  34. 34. The end of the print encyclopedia • Encyclopaedia Britannica print sales dropped 60% from 1990-1996 • Encyclopedia Americana: 2008 probably last print version • February 2008: all Brockhaus (German encyclopedia) content free and online by April – No more print editions • The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy was never been in print and never will be – ~1,000 entries vetted >100 scholars Noam Cohen. “Start Writing the Eulogies for Print Encyclopedias.” New York Times (March 16, 2008) http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/16/weekinreview/16ncohen.html?_r=2&ref=weekinreview&oref=slogin&oref=slogin “… the classic multivolume encyclopedia is well on its way to becoming the first casualty [of the Internet] in the end of print” “… the classic multivolume encyclopedia is well on its way to becoming the first casualty [of the Internet] in the end of print”
  35. 35. Free Archives on the Web • Sports Illustrated (53 year backfile) • New York Times (backfile to mid- 19th century) • Newsweek (backfile to 1990) Richard Pérez-Peña. “Dusting off the Archive for the Web.” New York Times (March 17, 2008) http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/17/business/media/17mags.html?ref=technology “Publications are rediscovering their archives, like a person learning that a hand-me-down coffee table is a valuable antique. For magazines and newspapers with long histories … old material can be reborn on the Web as an inexpensive way to attract readers, advertisers and money.” “Publications are rediscovering their archives, like a person learning that a hand-me-down coffee table is a valuable antique. For magazines and newspapers with long histories … old material can be reborn on the Web as an inexpensive way to attract readers, advertisers and money.”
  36. 36. Google Tools Integrate Digitized Books Into Library Catalog • Google now has >1M books scanned • Most users don’t know if there is a copy on Google of the book the want • Google wants get libraries to integrate Google book search into library online catalog using set of software protocols that merge the Google collection into the catalog • If a user searches the catalog and finds an item in Google there is a link to a “Limited Preview at Google Book Search” • For books still under copyright, Google displays only short passages Jeffrey R. Young. Google Unveils Tools to Integrate Its Digitized Books Into Campus Library Catalogs. Chronicle of Higher Education (March 14, 2008). http://chronicle.com/wiredcampus/article/2819/google-unveils-tools-to-integrate-its-digitized-books-into-campus-library-catalogs?utm_source=at&utm_medium=en
  37. 37. eWeek –What to Watch in 2008 Search and Collaboration • Increased collaboration through Google phones with Android (Google Apps), which will outsell the iPhone • Open social networks enable import / export data across social networking platforms • Security headaches caused by unparalleled openness creates big security headaches as data leaks from social networking sites • Social networking startups purchased by major companies to create platforms focused on businesses and enable in-house employee connections • Corporate mashup sites leads to mass consolidation of Web 2.0 technology providers, social networking vendors, and wiki and mashup makers Source: http://www.eweek.com/c/a/Messaging-and-Collaboration/What-to-Watch-in-2008-Search-and-Collaboration/
  38. 38. Environmental Scan: Library Implications • Develop library metaverse approaches that are fully interactive and less text-based • Balance the dual challenges of “competitive advantage” and “collaboration through social networking” – when to lead? – when to collaborate? – when to hold back? • Experiment – Life is not binary – Do not have to choose “all experimentation” versus “all tradition” – Balance the two in terms of time, staffing, and resources
  39. 39. Library 2.0: Issues • Adoption – how quickly can and will libraries adopt the new technologies? • Convergence – Will convergent mobile technologies make libraries more robust – or obsolete? • Abundance – how do users cope with too much information? • Preservation – how do users cope with information that should be ephemeral? Information that should not be ephemeral? • Standards – how will libraries move content between platforms and applications if there are no (or insufficient) standards? • Discontinuity – will social tagging and networking become too time consuming, boring, or no longer be fun? – will people no longer be willing to share their personal information online? People have incentives to tag their resources in Flickr or Librarything [because they are] tagging their own resources. Scale matters in the context of the social value created in these services. You cannot simply add social networking to a site and expect it to work well. Think of all those empty forums. – Lorcan Dempsey http://orweblog.oclc.org/archives/001556.html People have incentives to tag their resources in Flickr or Librarything [because they are] tagging their own resources. Scale matters in the context of the social value created in these services. You cannot simply add social networking to a site and expect it to work well. Think of all those empty forums. – Lorcan Dempsey http://orweblog.oclc.org/archives/001556.html
  40. 40. From Scan to Action: Scenario Planning CollaborativeResearch&Learning IndividualResearch&Learning Restricted Access Environment Open Access Environment Traditional: Individual Research and Closed Access Starting to Change: Collaborative Environment and Restricted Access Embracing Change: Individual Research in an Open Environment Library 2.0: Highly Collaborative in a Fully Open Physical and Virtual Access Environment
  41. 41. Final Planning Step: The Reality Check! After choosing the strategic directions, consider: what potential changes in the external or internal environment could prevent us from achieving our desired goals or outcomes?
  42. 42. Mission, vision, values, SWOT, goals, objectives, strategies Tactical analysis, performance standards, budget, organization chart Operations analysis: workflows, policies, procedures, service plans Annual goals: organization & individual Budget, personnel assignments, projects, assessment Strategic Plan Operating Plans Action Plans Individual goals & performance Annual Plans
  43. 43. Preventing Failure, Ensuring Success Sin Solution Sloth Fail to plan Implement a planning process Listen and explore Develop scenarios and encourage innovation Develop effective implementation strategies, structures, and reallocations Foster a learning organization Designate individuals or positions within the plan Diligence Embed accountability and metrics in plan, & assess performance Fail to understand the environment KindnessEnvy Lust Greed Pride Wrath Fail to demonstrate vision Chastity Fail to focus Temperance Fail to demonstrate agility Humility Fail to establish accountability Patience Gluttony Fail to assess level of success Abstinence
  44. 44. Where Do We Go From Here? Arnold Hirshon hirshon@nelinet.net 508-597-1934

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