Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.
Confrontation Manager and Florilandia  Rev Ev ©   War Game Mary Crannell,  Idea Sciences Ben Sheppard, Ph.D.  Institute fo...
Agenda 09:00  Afghanistan Narrative 09:30  Introduction to reverse war gaming:  Rev Ev 10:00  Florilandia War game: Scenar...
War Gaming – Introduction <ul><li>War Gaming is… </li></ul><ul><li>A strategic tool originally used by the military and re...
How can War Gaming help you? <ul><li>Test strategy in a safe, confidential environment </li></ul><ul><li>Map  the likely c...
Essence of Rev Ev War Gaming CHANGE RISK… AND  OPPORTUNITY UNCERTAINTY WAR GAMING creates leads to need for strategy strat...
War game structure 1-2 day meeting Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Team(s):  interaction of  people War game outputs Consequences ...
Return on investing in RevEv © <ul><li>Reverse Evolution ©  wargames </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Produce more insights than stan...
Reverse Evolution Wargame © <ul><li>Starts with a hypothetical yet credible condition, goal or requirement in 20xx </li></...
Typical simulation work-flow <ul><li>Workshop 1  </li></ul><ul><li>(1 day): </li></ul><ul><li>Design Meeting </li></ul><ul...
Our Process <ul><li>Our approach accounts for complexity by: </li></ul><ul><li>Exploring and exploiting conditions on an o...
<ul><li>FLORILANDIA CASE STUDY </li></ul>
Scenario Briefing:  Florilandia background <ul><li>Small hypothetical Latin American country of 8 million </li></ul><ul><l...
Florilandia Simulation Trade Unions Opposition : Pro private sector Government (Legislature) Government (Executive) Privat...
Group Tasks <ul><li>As your assigned group, identify:  </li></ul><ul><li>What do you want to achieve? What is your stated ...
Room allocations Room 302: BLUE / AZUL Government (Executive) - Al Elkins Room 305: YELLOW / AMARILLO Government (Legislat...
Group Tasks <ul><li>PART B: </li></ul><ul><li>Do you believe the other parties view your threat as credible? </li></ul><ul...
Contact Details: Mary Crannell,  Idea Sciences [email_address] 703 299 3480 Ben Sheppard Institute for Alternative Futures...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Sheppard

345 views

Published on

  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Sheppard

  1. 1. Confrontation Manager and Florilandia Rev Ev © War Game Mary Crannell, Idea Sciences Ben Sheppard, Ph.D. Institute for Alternative Futures July 24, 2010
  2. 2. Agenda 09:00 Afghanistan Narrative 09:30 Introduction to reverse war gaming: Rev Ev 10:00 Florilandia War game: Scenario briefing 10:20 Break (move to breakout rooms) 10:40 War game part A: Mapping human confrontations break out rooms as assigned 11:40 Break – reconvene in plenary room 11:50 War game part B: Comparing groups’ perspectives 12:45 Key Insights 13:00 Close
  3. 3. War Gaming – Introduction <ul><li>War Gaming is… </li></ul><ul><li>A strategic tool originally used by the military and refined for the public and private sector </li></ul><ul><li>A means of formulating strategy and developing tactical excellence </li></ul><ul><li>1 – 2 days’ competitive role playing to develop successful action plans for an increasingly challenging environment </li></ul><ul><li>What you get from War Gaming… </li></ul><ul><li>Innovative strategies to gain advantage in a changing world </li></ul><ul><li>An event that identifies robust strategies and pathways </li></ul>
  4. 4. How can War Gaming help you? <ul><li>Test strategy in a safe, confidential environment </li></ul><ul><li>Map the likely consequences of decisions over time </li></ul><ul><li>Explore changes in the external and internal environment </li></ul><ul><li>Identify your organization’s strengths and weaknesses to build credible offensive and defensive strategies </li></ul><ul><li>Identify likely alliances under various scenarios </li></ul><ul><li>Assess risk from likely and less likely future developments </li></ul><ul><li>Map confrontations to understand the impact of immediate decisions in winning confrontations over time </li></ul>
  5. 5. Essence of Rev Ev War Gaming CHANGE RISK… AND OPPORTUNITY UNCERTAINTY WAR GAMING creates leads to need for strategy strategic action plan
  6. 6. War game structure 1-2 day meeting Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Team(s): interaction of people War game outputs Consequences of actions taken in round 1 carry through to rounds 2 & 3 input i nput External environment variables Time period 1 Time period 2 Time period 3 Objective: Create and explore hypothetical but credible scenarios Develop and test strategies, plans, and responses in a “safe” environment Internal environment variables
  7. 7. Return on investing in RevEv © <ul><li>Reverse Evolution © wargames </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Produce more insights than standard wargames </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Provides players with rich and credible opportunities to address uncertainty inherent across many futures </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Leverage your resources and activities for any future </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Roadmap capabilities to better prepare for any future </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increased awareness of early warning trends; improved organizational ability to take advantage of windows of opportunities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Biases leadership toward execution </li></ul></ul>
  8. 8. Reverse Evolution Wargame © <ul><li>Starts with a hypothetical yet credible condition, goal or requirement in 20xx </li></ul><ul><li>Includes the operational constants – people, information and things in time and space across PMESII-G. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Political, Military, Economic, Informational, Infrastructure, Geophysical </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Experts design backward from this scenario -- evolve in reverse -- finally arriving at 2015 and a set of initial conditions </li></ul><ul><li>Players execute these initial conditions forward in a wargame </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Shows systemic changes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Can open strategic opportunities based on system dynamics </li></ul></ul>
  9. 9. Typical simulation work-flow <ul><li>Workshop 1 </li></ul><ul><li>(1 day): </li></ul><ul><li>Design Meeting </li></ul><ul><li>Identify key questions to build simulation around </li></ul><ul><li>Workshop 2 </li></ul><ul><li>(2-3 days): </li></ul><ul><li>Rev Ev Design </li></ul><ul><li>Identify initial conditions </li></ul><ul><li>Workshop 3 </li></ul><ul><li>(2-3 days) </li></ul><ul><li>War game: </li></ul><ul><li>Develop and stress test new strategies and identify unintended consequences </li></ul><ul><li>Full Report: </li></ul><ul><li>Key findings & strategies </li></ul>
  10. 10. Our Process <ul><li>Our approach accounts for complexity by: </li></ul><ul><li>Exploring and exploiting conditions on an ongoing basis, and </li></ul><ul><li>Embedding the vision in the routine activities you perform every day. </li></ul>
  11. 11. <ul><li>FLORILANDIA CASE STUDY </li></ul>
  12. 12. Scenario Briefing: Florilandia background <ul><li>Small hypothetical Latin American country of 8 million </li></ul><ul><li>Lacks good governance </li></ul><ul><li>Non oil growth rate low at 2% - hydrocarbons 50% down from 2000 </li></ul><ul><li>Oil sector nationalized yet sector needs foreign investment & expertise </li></ul><ul><li>Florilandia faces economic disaster if economy not revitalized </li></ul><ul><li>Credit rating downgraded and threat of debt default looms with potential currency collapse </li></ul><ul><li>Some trade unions are restless with wage freezes </li></ul><ul><li>National Social Revolutionary terrorist group threatens resumption of violence </li></ul>
  13. 13. Florilandia Simulation Trade Unions Opposition : Pro private sector Government (Legislature) Government (Executive) Private sector President Ramón Robles; President of Petroflor; Minister of Energy and Mines President of Congress; President of the Marxist Party Mayor of Puerto Salinas ; Mayor of Azucena; former Minister of Energy and Mines; former Presidents (Norberto and Garcia) Leader of the hydrocarbons industry Labor Union; Leader of the Federation of Unions (comprised of Transport Union, and the Union of Public Utility Workers) President of Petrolera Internacional USA President of Petróleos Europeos Media Editor of the Puerto (pro-opposition) ; VEA (pro governmen t) Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Map Confrontations and Build Coalitions Leverage Coalitions Implement compliance plan TEAMS TEAMS TEAMS
  14. 14. Group Tasks <ul><li>As your assigned group, identify: </li></ul><ul><li>What do you want to achieve? What is your stated objective? </li></ul><ul><li>What do you want others to do to achieve your goal? </li></ul><ul><li>What will you offer other parties to get them to your view point? </li></ul><ul><li>What will you threaten and / or promise the other parties to keep them to your view point? </li></ul>
  15. 15. Room allocations Room 302: BLUE / AZUL Government (Executive) - Al Elkins Room 305: YELLOW / AMARILLO Government (Legislature) – Mary Crannell – Room 307: ORANGE / NARANJA Opposition parties (pro private sector) – Gustavo Coronel Room 309: RED / ROJO Trade Unions – Ben Sheppard Room 310: GREEN / VERDE Private sector (international oil companies) – Ricardo Castillo
  16. 16. Group Tasks <ul><li>PART B: </li></ul><ul><li>Do you believe the other parties view your threat as credible? </li></ul><ul><li>If your threat is viewed as credible, is it enough to persuade the other parties to your point of view? </li></ul>
  17. 17. Contact Details: Mary Crannell, Idea Sciences [email_address] 703 299 3480 Ben Sheppard Institute for Alternative Futures [email_address] 703-684-5880

×