This document discusses various methods for designing the future under uncertainty, including effectuation, scrum, pretotyping, design thinking, and lean startup. It focuses on effectuation, explaining that with uncertainty goals are negotiable, information is confusing, complexity is high, and change is disruptive. The effectuation principles are outlined, including investing what you can afford to lose and building networks of stakeholders. The effectuation grid is presented as a tool for dealing with uncertainty by considering means, purpose, affordable loss, uncertainty profiling, partnerships, and leverage surprises.

1. Effectuation
for startups
- a toolbox
to deal with
uncertainty.
DISCOVER YOUR
WAY BY MOVING
FORWARD
Presentation at Rome 2. october 2014
by klaus haasis

4. How shall I move forward?
This multi-bladed folding knife was made in Germany around 1880. Image: Smithsonian’s National Museum of American History

5. Methods to design the future
Effectuation (Saras Sarasvathy)
Scrum (Jeff Sutherland)
Pretotyping (Alberto Savoia)
Design Thinking (David Kelley )
Lean Startup (Eric Ries)
Management 3.0 (Jurgen Appelo)
Cynefin (David J. Snowden)
Theory U (Otto Scharmer)
Business Modell Generation (A. Osterwalder)

6. Destination unknown -
discovering opportunities
by moving forward!
risk or uncertainty?
the turkey illusion
cake or fridge?
the affordable loss principle
the effectuation grid

8. insecure or uncertain? => risk ?

9. insecure or uncertain? => risk?

10. ?
insecure or uncertain? => risk ?

11. "Simple problems can
have complex solutions -
complex problems need
simple solutions."
"Under
uncertainty we need
heuristics - rules of
thump."

12. THE TURKEY
ILLUSION

13. Uncertainty
Goals
Information
Complexity
Change
negotiable
confusing
high
disruptive
Risk
controllable Uncertainty Profiling
fixed
clear
low

14. Cake or Fridge ?

15. Invest what you can afford to lose.
Don't target a return first and
hope of profitability and growth.

16. EFFECTUATION PRINCIPLES
The future is not predictable.
The future comes from what people do.
Start form your given means.
Don't assemble means after a goal is set.
Invest what you can afford to lose.
Don't target a return first and
hope of profitability and growth.
Build a network of self-selected stakeholders
and get stakeholder commitments.
Embrace and leverage surprises.

17. Means /
Resources Purpose Affordable
Uncertainty
Profiling
Loss
Partnerships
Committ-ments
Next Steps/
Leverage
surprise
EFFECTUATION GRID - Dealing with Uncertainty
Innovations Coaching in Business Environments

18. sometimes
always

19. ... how you see yourself means everything ....

20. klaus haasis mail@klaushaasis.de,
mobile +491706313193
de.linkedin.com/in/klaushaasis
de.linkedin.com/in/klaushaasis