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Some random thoughts - sealed with the drive to finish the presn before 2011

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  1. 1. 2010<br />Forecasting Media<br />Some possible, some probable and some wishful thinking<br />
  2. 2. 5 media<br />
  3. 3. 5 factors for:<br />
  4. 4. 1. Multi-TV HH’s will explode<br />As cost of sets go down, multi TV HH’s will increase<br />DTH providers will offer free TV’s with a DTH connection to increase penetration of their consumer base <br />
  5. 5. 2. Distribution will be the new media<br />Specialised content for the digital platform will make its presence felt – more headaches for the planner<br />HITS (subject to government interference) will revolutionise the distribution business<br />Pay-per-view for new movies – a distinct possibility<br />National channels – region wise advertising – a distinct possibility<br />
  6. 6. 3. Content will still be king – only kingdoms will become smaller<br />Specialised content – special audience<br />Unfortunately, regressive serials will continue to rule the manure heap still… <br />After the explosion of news channels (where content cost is minimal) – there will be still more news channels covering serious issues like - MurariLal’s wife had a fight with her domestic help… who is guilty???<br />
  7. 7. 4. Increased fragmentation<br />2 TVR’s = IMPACT! - CPRP’s increase<br />Increased on-screen integrations (leading to more irritation and hence fragmentation) as value-adds to negate the increasing CPRP<br />TAM’s non-fct monitoring revenues will increase<br />Competitive reports will have to include SHOOSE (Share of on screen elements) apart from SOV<br />
  8. 8. 5. Optimisers will rise again and fail again<br />As a direct fallout of the increased fragmentation, Optimisers will again hold centrestage<br />Over a period of time Media Planners and Advertisers will realise what Mutual Funds say all the time – “past indication is no guarantee for future returns”<br />
  9. 9. 5 factors for:<br />
  10. 10. 1. Front page premiums will disappear<br />OK – this is wishful thinking, but, realistically, how many people remember the ad on the front page of today’s newspaper?<br />And yet we pay fantastic premiums for it <br />After a long time, there is a rationalisation of rates<br />Advertisers will use this to ensure their visibility for key activities – but at their cost<br />
  11. 11. 2. Spends =&gt; visibility<br />After Volkswagon has shown us how not to use advertising spends on Print, this will be the new Mantra for all Print partners<br />The trend will be encouraged by all Print houses – higher spends =&gt; higher visibility =&gt; higher efficiencies (?????)<br />
  12. 12. 3. Readership surveys will get more effective<br />The mast head method’s fallacies will be discussed – and brushed under the carpet<br />Methods to determine readership of different pages will also be discussed and discarded<br />Accountability of costs will be discussed once again – and brushed under the carpet yet again<br />And yes, readership surveys will continue to be used for all product ownership data rather than readership data<br />
  13. 13. 4. Customising of content<br />After the choice of subscription offers of newspapers (TOI+MM or TOI+ET) we will see a customisation of supplements where readers get to choose the supplements they want<br />A customised magazine will be launched whose content will be driven by individual choice and not by what is popular (oops…. wishful thinking again)<br /> Hence India Today could be a sports magazine for me and a political magazine for my father (two copies, same magazine name)<br />
  14. 14. 5. Print media will follow some ethical practices<br />Actually all media should…<br />Hence advertising will be advertising and news should be news<br />Impact of sensationalism will reduce (Hence we can read the Mumbai Mirror and not worry about what our children will see/ read in it) <br />
  15. 15. 5 factors for:<br />
  16. 16. 1. The overpriced licenses will meet with no new takers<br />If the bid for new licenses happens, unlike the IPL, there won’t be too many bidders<br />Cartelisation/ shake-out a distinct possibility<br />
  17. 17. 2. There is life beyond music<br />And no, we are not talking some of the gibberish that gets spoken in the name of rj mentions/ chat<br />Think of it – why is Oprah Winfrey such a big hit on TV? Not for her looks – right?<br />
  18. 18. 3. Local clients will use the media more than national clients<br />Lets face it, the most eligible clientele for radio is the local advertiser, and yet, what is the contribution of local to national advertising on radio? <br />
  19. 19. 4. News on Radio will compete against TV news channels<br />In India currently news cannot be telecast on private fm channels<br />Once that changes – local news will become the biggest drawthereby affecting the affinity of local news channels as this would be news on the go<br />
  20. 20. 5. Consolidation and Cartelisation<br />If allowed, stations will sell out to the deeper pockets<br />One may see the cartelisation of stations in a bid to increase yield<br />
  21. 21. 5 factors for:<br />
  22. 22. 1. Movies will not be the only thing shown in theatres<br />Live events, sporting extravaganza’s will all be telecast in cinema halls<br />
  23. 23. 2. Film festivals will become the next attraction for consumers<br />Soon we will have theme based cinema festivals – hence kids movie festivals in the summer, action festivals in the last show etc<br />
  24. 24. 3. Language will no longer be the barrier<br />With more movies than ever being dubbed, language barriers will cease to exist and cinema will become universal<br />
  25. 25. 4. Investing in new talent will increase<br />With “hit formulas” no longer being guaranteed, new (read low cost) talent will become the new flavour for financers<br />
  26. 26. 5. While distribution increases, so will fragmentation<br />With digital transmission by players like UFO, the number of shows for new movies is more than ever before<br />However, as the canvas for the consumers widens, so also will the fragmentation<br />Who knows, maybe consumers will decide which movie they want to see at a particular time and venue<br />
  27. 27. 5 factors for:<br />
  28. 28. 1. 3G will drive net penetration faster than the PC ever has<br />With improving technology, even lower end handsets will improve and be 3G enabled<br />The power of the net will explode into the hands of millions of consumers quite literally<br />
  29. 29. 2. Mobile advertising will outpace the net in India<br />More unavoidable than the net<br />Hence assured eyeballs<br />Currently advertising on the mobile restricted to Push sms<br />Technology will enable richer advertising on more handsets<br />
  30. 30. 3. Social networking marketing will fail for 9 out of 10 advertisers<br />Already happening<br />
  31. 31. Points 4 & 5<br />Even I cant guess these…<br />When I do, will update them <br />
  32. 32. 4.<br />
  33. 33. 5.<br />