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Engineering econimix unit1 unit2 modified

Managerial Economics, Engineering Economics, Units & 2

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ENGINEERING ECONOMICS ►► 
UNIT-I 
INTRODUCTION TO MANAGERIAL ECONOMICS 
Introduction to Economics 
Managers, in their day-to-day activities, are always confronted with several issues 
such as how much quantity is to be supplied; at what price; should the product be made 
internally; or whether it should be bought from outside; how much quantity is to be produced 
to make a given amount of profit and so on. Managerial economics provides us a basic 
insight into seeking solutions for managerial problems. 
Economics is a study of human activity both at individual and national level. The 
economists of early age treated economics merely as the science of wealth. The reason for 
this is clear. Every one of us in involved in efforts aimed at earning money and spending this 
money to satisfy our wants such as food, Clothing, shelter, and others. Such activities of 
earning and spending money are called “Economic activities”. It was only during the 
eighteenth century that Adam Smith, the Father of Economics, defined economics as the 
study of nature and uses of national wealth’. 
Dr. Alfred Marshall, one of the greatest economists of the nineteenth century, writes 
“Economics is a study of man’s actions in the ordinary business of life: it enquires how he 
gets his income and how he uses it”. Thus, it is one side, a study of wealth; and on the other, 
and more important side; it is the study of man. As Marshall observed, the chief aim of 
economics is to promote ‘human welfare’, but not wealth. 
Microeconomics 
The study of an individual consumer or a firm is called microeconomics (also called 
the Theory of Firm). Micro means ‘one millionth’. Microeconomics deals with behavior and 
problems of single individual and of micro organization. 
Macroeconomics 
The study of ‘aggregate’ or total level of economic activity in a country is called 
macroeconomics. It studies the flow of economics resources or factors of production (such as 
land, labour, capital, organization and technology) from the resource owner to the business 
firms and then from the business firms to the households. It deals with total aggregates, for 
instance, total national income total employment, output and total investment. 
Management 
Management is the science and art of getting things done through people in formally 
organized groups. It is necessary that every organization be well managed to enable it to 
achieve its desired goals. Management includes a number of functions: Planning, organizing, 
staffing, directing, and controlling. The manager while directing the efforts of his staff 
communicates to them the goals, objectives, policies, and procedures; coordinates their 
efforts; motivates them to sustain their enthusiasm; and leads them to achieve the corporate 
goals. 
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ENGINEERING ECONOMICS ►► 
Managerial Economics 
Meaning & Definition: 
In the words of E. F. Brigham and J. L. Pappas Managerial Economics is “the 
applications of economics theory and methodology to business administration practice”. 
M. H. Spencer and Louis Siegelman explain the “Managerial Economics is the 
integration of economic theory with business practice for the purpose of facilitating decision 
making and forward planning by management”. 
Managerial Economics, therefore, focuses on those tools and techniques, which are 
useful in decision-making. 
Nature of Managerial Economics 
Managerial economics is, perhaps, the youngest of all the social sciences. Since it 
originates from Economics, it has the basis features of economics. The features of managerial 
economics are explained as below: 
(a) Close to microeconomics: Managerial economics is concerned with finding the 
solutions for different managerial problems of a particular firm. Thus, it is more 
close to microeconomics. 
(b) Operates against the backdrop of macroeconomics: The macroeconomics 
conditions of the economy are also seen as limiting factors for the firm to operate. In 
other words, the managerial economist has to be aware of the limits set by the 
macroeconomics conditions such as government industrial policy, inflation and so 
on. 
(c) Normative statements: A normative statement usually includes or implies the words 
‘ought’ or ‘should’. They reflect people’s moral attitudes and are expressions of what 
a team of people ought to do. For instance, it deals with statements such as 
‘Government of India should open up the economy. Such statement are based on 
value judgments and express views of what is ‘good’ or ‘bad’, ‘right’ or ‘ wrong’. 
One problem with normative statements is that they cannot to verify by looking at 
the facts, because they mostly deal with the future. Disagreements about such 
statements are usually settled by voting on them. 
(d) Prescriptive actions: Prescriptive action is goal oriented. Given a problem and the 
objectives of the firm, it suggests the course of action from the available alternatives 
for optimal solution. If does not merely mention the concept, it also explains whether 
the concept can be applied in a given context on not. For instance, the fact that 
variable costs are marginal costs can be used to judge the feasibility of an export 
order. 
(e) Applied in nature: ‘Models’ are built to reflect the real life complex business 
situations and these models are of immense help to managers for decision-making. 
The different areas where models are extensively used include inventory control, 
optimization, project management etc. In managerial economics, we also employ 
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ENGINEERING ECONOMICS ►► 
case study methods to conceptualize the problem, identify that alternative and 
determine the best course of action. 
(f) Offers scope to evaluate each alternative: Managerial economics provides an 
opportunity to evaluate each alternative in terms of its costs and revenue. The 
managerial economist can decide which is the better alternative to maximize the 
profits for the firm. 
(g) Interdisciplinary: The contents, tools and techniques of managerial economics are 
drawn from different subjects such as economics, management, mathematics, 
statistics, accountancy, psychology, organizational behavior, sociology and etc. 
(h) Assumptions and limitations: Every concept and theory of managerial economics is 
based on certain assumption and as such their validity is not universal. Where there 
is change in assumptions, the theory may not hold good at all. 
Scope of Managerial Economics: 
The scope of managerial economics refers to its area of study. The scope of 
managerial economics covers two areas of decision making. 
a. Operational issues: 
Operational issues refer to those, which wise within the business organization and 
they are under the control of the management. Those are: 
1. Demand Analyses and Forecasting: 
A firm can survive only if it is able to the demand for its product at the right time, 
within the right quantity. Understanding the basic concepts of demand is essential for demand 
forecasting. Demand analysis should be a basic activity of the firm because many of the other 
activities of the firms depend upon the outcome of the demand forecast. 
2. Pricing and competitive strategy: 
Pricing decisions have been always within the preview of managerial economics. 
Pricing policies are merely a subset of broader class of managerial economic problems. Price 
theory helps to explain how prices are determined under different types of market conditions. 
Competitions analysis includes the anticipation of the response of competitions the firm’s 
pricing, advertising and marketing strategies. 
3. Production and cost analysis: 
Production analysis is in physical terms. While the cost analysis is in monetary terms 
cost concepts and classifications, cost-out-put relationships, economies and diseconomies of 
scale and production functions are some of the points constituting cost and production 
analysis. 
4. Resource Allocation: 
Managerial Economics is the traditional economic theory that is concerned with the 
problem of optimum allocation of scarce resources. Marginal analysis is applied to the 
problem of determining the level of output, which maximizes profit. In this respect linear 
programming techniques has been used to solve optimization problems. In fact lines 
programming is one of the most practical and powerful managerial decision making tools 
currently available. 
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5. Profit analysis: 
Profit making is the major goal of firms. There are several constraints here an account 
of competition from other products, changing input prices and changing business 
environment hence in spite of careful planning, there is always certain risk involved. 
Managerial economics deals with techniques of averting of minimizing risks. Profit theory 
guides in the measurement and management of profit, in calculating the pure return on 
capital, besides future profit planning. 
6. Capital or investment analyses: 
Capital is the foundation of business. Lack of capital may result in small size of 
operations. Availability of capital from various sources like equity capital, institutional 
finance etc. may help to undertake large-scale operations. Hence efficient allocation and 
management of capital is one of the most important tasks of the managers. 
7. Strategic planning: 
Strategic planning provides management with a framework on which long-term 
decisions can be made which has an impact on the behavior of the firm. The firm sets certain 
long-term goals and objectives and selects the strategies to achieve the same. Strategic 
planning is now a new addition to the scope of managerial economics with the emergence of 
multinational corporations. The perspective of strategic planning is global. 
B. Environmental or External Issues: 
An environmental issue in managerial economics refers to the general business 
environment in which the firm operates. They refer to general economic, social and political 
atmosphere within which the firm operates. A study of economic environment should 
include: 
a. The type of economic system in the country. 
b. The general trends in production, employment, income, prices, saving and investment. 
c. Trends in the working of financial institutions like banks, financial corporations, 
insurance companies 
d. Magnitude and trends in foreign trade; 
e. Trends in labour and capital markets; 
f. Government’s economic policies viz. industrial policy monetary policy, fiscal policy, 
price policy etc. 
Managerial economics relationship with other disciplines 
Many new subjects have evolved in recent years due to the interaction among basic 
disciplines. While there are many such new subjects in natural and social sciences, 
managerial economics can be taken as the best example of such a phenomenon among social 
sciences. Hence it is necessary to trace its roots and relationship with other disciplines. 
1. Relationship with economics: 
The relationship between managerial economics and economics theory may be 
viewed from the point of view of the two approaches to the subject Viz. Micro Economics 
and Marco Economics. Microeconomics is the study of the economic behavior of individuals, 
firms and other such micro organizations. Managerial economics is rooted in Micro 
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Economic theory. Managerial Economics makes use to several Micro Economic concepts 
such as marginal cost, marginal revenue, elasticity of demand as well as price theory and 
theories of market structure to name only a few. Macro theory on the other hand is the study 
of the economy as a whole. It deals with the analysis of national income, the level of 
employment, general price level, consumption and investment in the economy and even 
matters related to international trade, Money, public finance, etc. 
2. Management theory and accounting: 
Managerial economics has been influenced by the developments in management 
theory and accounting techniques. Accounting refers to the recording of pecuniary 
transactions of the firm in certain books. A proper knowledge of accounting techniques is 
very essential for the success of the firm because profit maximization is the major objective 
of the firm. 
3. Managerial Economics and mathematics: 
The use of mathematics is significant for managerial economics in view of its profit 
maximization goal long with optional use of resources. Mathematical concepts and 
techniques are widely used in economic logic to solve the problems. Also mathematical 
methods help to estimate and predict the economic factors for decision making and forward 
planning. The main concepts of mathematics like logarithms, and exponentials, vectors and 
determinants, input-output models etc., are widely used. Besides these usual tools, more 
advanced techniques designed in the recent years viz. linear programming, inventory models 
and game theory fine wide application in managerial economics. 
4. Managerial Economics and Statistics: 
Managerial Economics needs the tools of statistics in more than one way. A 
successful businessman must correctly estimate the demand for his product. Statistical tools 
like the theory of probability and forecasting techniques help the firm to predict the future 
course of events. Managerial Economics also make use of correlation and multiple 
regressions in related variables like price and demand to estimate the extent of dependence of 
one variable on the other. The theory of probability is very useful in problems involving 
uncertainty. 
5. Managerial Economics and Operations Research: 
Taking effectives decisions is the major concern of both managerial economics and 
operations research. The development of techniques and concepts such as linear 
programming, inventory models and game theory is due to the development of this new 
subject of operations research in the postwar years. Operations research is concerned with the 
complex problems arising out of the management of men, machines, materials and money. 
6. Managerial Economics and Computer Science: 
Computers have changes the way of the world functions and economic or business 
activity is no exception. Computers are used in data and accounts maintenance, inventory 
and stock controls and supply and demand predictions. What used to take days and months is 
done in a few minutes or hours by the computers. In fact computerization of business 
activities on a large scale has reduced the workload of managerial personnel. In most 
countries a basic knowledge of computer science, is a compulsory programme for managerial 
trainees. 
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ENGINEERING ECONOMICS ►► 
Basic economic tools in managerial economics for decision making: 
Economic theory offers a variety of concepts and analytical tools which can be of 
considerable assistance to the managers in his decision making practice. These tools are 
helpful for managers in solving their business related problems. Following are the basic 
economic tools for decision making: 
1. Opportunity cost 
2. Incremental principle 
3. Principle of the time perspective 
4. Discounting principle 
5. Equi-marginal principle 
1) Opportunity cost principle: 
By the opportunity cost of a decision is meant the sacrifice of alternatives required by that 
decision. 
For e.g. 
* The opportunity cost of the funds employed in one’s own business is the interest that could 
be earned on those funds if they have been employed in other ventures. 
Its clear now that opportunity cost requires ascertainment of sacrifices. If a decision involves 
no sacrifices, its opportunity cost is nil. For decision making opportunity costs are the only 
relevant costs. 
2) Incremental principle: 
The two basic components of incremental reasoning are 
1. Incremental cost 2. Incremental Revenue 
“A decision is obviously a profitable one if – 
 it increases revenue more than costs 
 it decreases some costs to a greater extent than it increases others 
3) Principle of Time Perspective 
Managerial economists are also concerned with the short run and the long run effects of 
decisions on revenues as well as costs. The very important problem in decision making is to 
maintain the right balance between the long run and short run considerations. 
4) Discounting Principle: 
One of the fundamental ideas in Economics is that a rupee tomorrow is worth less than a 
rupee today. Suppose a person is offered a choice to make between a gift of Rs.100/- today or 
Rs.100/- next year. Naturally he will chose Rs.100/- today. The reason is 
.. Even if he is sure to receive the gift in future, today’s Rs.100/- can be invested so as to earn 
interest say as 8% so that one year after Rs.100/- will become 108. 
5) Equi – marginal Principle: 
This principle deals with the allocation of an available resource among the alternative 
activities. According to this principle, an input should be so allocated that the value added by 
the last unit is the same in all cases. This generalization is called the equi-marginal principle. 
Suppose, a firm has 100 units of labor at its disposal. The firm is engaged in four activities 
which need labors services, viz, A,B,C and D. it can enhance any one of these activities by 
adding more labor but only at the cost of other activities. 
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Engineering econimix unit1 unit2 modified

  • 1. ENGINEERING ECONOMICS ►► UNIT-I INTRODUCTION TO MANAGERIAL ECONOMICS Introduction to Economics Managers, in their day-to-day activities, are always confronted with several issues such as how much quantity is to be supplied; at what price; should the product be made internally; or whether it should be bought from outside; how much quantity is to be produced to make a given amount of profit and so on. Managerial economics provides us a basic insight into seeking solutions for managerial problems. Economics is a study of human activity both at individual and national level. The economists of early age treated economics merely as the science of wealth. The reason for this is clear. Every one of us in involved in efforts aimed at earning money and spending this money to satisfy our wants such as food, Clothing, shelter, and others. Such activities of earning and spending money are called “Economic activities”. It was only during the eighteenth century that Adam Smith, the Father of Economics, defined economics as the study of nature and uses of national wealth’. Dr. Alfred Marshall, one of the greatest economists of the nineteenth century, writes “Economics is a study of man’s actions in the ordinary business of life: it enquires how he gets his income and how he uses it”. Thus, it is one side, a study of wealth; and on the other, and more important side; it is the study of man. As Marshall observed, the chief aim of economics is to promote ‘human welfare’, but not wealth. Microeconomics The study of an individual consumer or a firm is called microeconomics (also called the Theory of Firm). Micro means ‘one millionth’. Microeconomics deals with behavior and problems of single individual and of micro organization. Macroeconomics The study of ‘aggregate’ or total level of economic activity in a country is called macroeconomics. It studies the flow of economics resources or factors of production (such as land, labour, capital, organization and technology) from the resource owner to the business firms and then from the business firms to the households. It deals with total aggregates, for instance, total national income total employment, output and total investment. Management Management is the science and art of getting things done through people in formally organized groups. It is necessary that every organization be well managed to enable it to achieve its desired goals. Management includes a number of functions: Planning, organizing, staffing, directing, and controlling. The manager while directing the efforts of his staff communicates to them the goals, objectives, policies, and procedures; coordinates their efforts; motivates them to sustain their enthusiasm; and leads them to achieve the corporate goals. PVPSIT………………..□ □ □ ► 2014 1 @7382219990
  • 2. ENGINEERING ECONOMICS ►► Managerial Economics Meaning & Definition: In the words of E. F. Brigham and J. L. Pappas Managerial Economics is “the applications of economics theory and methodology to business administration practice”. M. H. Spencer and Louis Siegelman explain the “Managerial Economics is the integration of economic theory with business practice for the purpose of facilitating decision making and forward planning by management”. Managerial Economics, therefore, focuses on those tools and techniques, which are useful in decision-making. Nature of Managerial Economics Managerial economics is, perhaps, the youngest of all the social sciences. Since it originates from Economics, it has the basis features of economics. The features of managerial economics are explained as below: (a) Close to microeconomics: Managerial economics is concerned with finding the solutions for different managerial problems of a particular firm. Thus, it is more close to microeconomics. (b) Operates against the backdrop of macroeconomics: The macroeconomics conditions of the economy are also seen as limiting factors for the firm to operate. In other words, the managerial economist has to be aware of the limits set by the macroeconomics conditions such as government industrial policy, inflation and so on. (c) Normative statements: A normative statement usually includes or implies the words ‘ought’ or ‘should’. They reflect people’s moral attitudes and are expressions of what a team of people ought to do. For instance, it deals with statements such as ‘Government of India should open up the economy. Such statement are based on value judgments and express views of what is ‘good’ or ‘bad’, ‘right’ or ‘ wrong’. One problem with normative statements is that they cannot to verify by looking at the facts, because they mostly deal with the future. Disagreements about such statements are usually settled by voting on them. (d) Prescriptive actions: Prescriptive action is goal oriented. Given a problem and the objectives of the firm, it suggests the course of action from the available alternatives for optimal solution. If does not merely mention the concept, it also explains whether the concept can be applied in a given context on not. For instance, the fact that variable costs are marginal costs can be used to judge the feasibility of an export order. (e) Applied in nature: ‘Models’ are built to reflect the real life complex business situations and these models are of immense help to managers for decision-making. The different areas where models are extensively used include inventory control, optimization, project management etc. In managerial economics, we also employ PVPSIT………………..□ □ □ ► 2014 2 @7382219990
  • 3. ENGINEERING ECONOMICS ►► case study methods to conceptualize the problem, identify that alternative and determine the best course of action. (f) Offers scope to evaluate each alternative: Managerial economics provides an opportunity to evaluate each alternative in terms of its costs and revenue. The managerial economist can decide which is the better alternative to maximize the profits for the firm. (g) Interdisciplinary: The contents, tools and techniques of managerial economics are drawn from different subjects such as economics, management, mathematics, statistics, accountancy, psychology, organizational behavior, sociology and etc. (h) Assumptions and limitations: Every concept and theory of managerial economics is based on certain assumption and as such their validity is not universal. Where there is change in assumptions, the theory may not hold good at all. Scope of Managerial Economics: The scope of managerial economics refers to its area of study. The scope of managerial economics covers two areas of decision making. a. Operational issues: Operational issues refer to those, which wise within the business organization and they are under the control of the management. Those are: 1. Demand Analyses and Forecasting: A firm can survive only if it is able to the demand for its product at the right time, within the right quantity. Understanding the basic concepts of demand is essential for demand forecasting. Demand analysis should be a basic activity of the firm because many of the other activities of the firms depend upon the outcome of the demand forecast. 2. Pricing and competitive strategy: Pricing decisions have been always within the preview of managerial economics. Pricing policies are merely a subset of broader class of managerial economic problems. Price theory helps to explain how prices are determined under different types of market conditions. Competitions analysis includes the anticipation of the response of competitions the firm’s pricing, advertising and marketing strategies. 3. Production and cost analysis: Production analysis is in physical terms. While the cost analysis is in monetary terms cost concepts and classifications, cost-out-put relationships, economies and diseconomies of scale and production functions are some of the points constituting cost and production analysis. 4. Resource Allocation: Managerial Economics is the traditional economic theory that is concerned with the problem of optimum allocation of scarce resources. Marginal analysis is applied to the problem of determining the level of output, which maximizes profit. In this respect linear programming techniques has been used to solve optimization problems. In fact lines programming is one of the most practical and powerful managerial decision making tools currently available. PVPSIT………………..□ □ □ ► 2014 3 @7382219990
  • 4. ENGINEERING ECONOMICS ►► 5. Profit analysis: Profit making is the major goal of firms. There are several constraints here an account of competition from other products, changing input prices and changing business environment hence in spite of careful planning, there is always certain risk involved. Managerial economics deals with techniques of averting of minimizing risks. Profit theory guides in the measurement and management of profit, in calculating the pure return on capital, besides future profit planning. 6. Capital or investment analyses: Capital is the foundation of business. Lack of capital may result in small size of operations. Availability of capital from various sources like equity capital, institutional finance etc. may help to undertake large-scale operations. Hence efficient allocation and management of capital is one of the most important tasks of the managers. 7. Strategic planning: Strategic planning provides management with a framework on which long-term decisions can be made which has an impact on the behavior of the firm. The firm sets certain long-term goals and objectives and selects the strategies to achieve the same. Strategic planning is now a new addition to the scope of managerial economics with the emergence of multinational corporations. The perspective of strategic planning is global. B. Environmental or External Issues: An environmental issue in managerial economics refers to the general business environment in which the firm operates. They refer to general economic, social and political atmosphere within which the firm operates. A study of economic environment should include: a. The type of economic system in the country. b. The general trends in production, employment, income, prices, saving and investment. c. Trends in the working of financial institutions like banks, financial corporations, insurance companies d. Magnitude and trends in foreign trade; e. Trends in labour and capital markets; f. Government’s economic policies viz. industrial policy monetary policy, fiscal policy, price policy etc. Managerial economics relationship with other disciplines Many new subjects have evolved in recent years due to the interaction among basic disciplines. While there are many such new subjects in natural and social sciences, managerial economics can be taken as the best example of such a phenomenon among social sciences. Hence it is necessary to trace its roots and relationship with other disciplines. 1. Relationship with economics: The relationship between managerial economics and economics theory may be viewed from the point of view of the two approaches to the subject Viz. Micro Economics and Marco Economics. Microeconomics is the study of the economic behavior of individuals, firms and other such micro organizations. Managerial economics is rooted in Micro PVPSIT………………..□ □ □ ► 2014 4 @7382219990
  • 5. ENGINEERING ECONOMICS ►► Economic theory. Managerial Economics makes use to several Micro Economic concepts such as marginal cost, marginal revenue, elasticity of demand as well as price theory and theories of market structure to name only a few. Macro theory on the other hand is the study of the economy as a whole. It deals with the analysis of national income, the level of employment, general price level, consumption and investment in the economy and even matters related to international trade, Money, public finance, etc. 2. Management theory and accounting: Managerial economics has been influenced by the developments in management theory and accounting techniques. Accounting refers to the recording of pecuniary transactions of the firm in certain books. A proper knowledge of accounting techniques is very essential for the success of the firm because profit maximization is the major objective of the firm. 3. Managerial Economics and mathematics: The use of mathematics is significant for managerial economics in view of its profit maximization goal long with optional use of resources. Mathematical concepts and techniques are widely used in economic logic to solve the problems. Also mathematical methods help to estimate and predict the economic factors for decision making and forward planning. The main concepts of mathematics like logarithms, and exponentials, vectors and determinants, input-output models etc., are widely used. Besides these usual tools, more advanced techniques designed in the recent years viz. linear programming, inventory models and game theory fine wide application in managerial economics. 4. Managerial Economics and Statistics: Managerial Economics needs the tools of statistics in more than one way. A successful businessman must correctly estimate the demand for his product. Statistical tools like the theory of probability and forecasting techniques help the firm to predict the future course of events. Managerial Economics also make use of correlation and multiple regressions in related variables like price and demand to estimate the extent of dependence of one variable on the other. The theory of probability is very useful in problems involving uncertainty. 5. Managerial Economics and Operations Research: Taking effectives decisions is the major concern of both managerial economics and operations research. The development of techniques and concepts such as linear programming, inventory models and game theory is due to the development of this new subject of operations research in the postwar years. Operations research is concerned with the complex problems arising out of the management of men, machines, materials and money. 6. Managerial Economics and Computer Science: Computers have changes the way of the world functions and economic or business activity is no exception. Computers are used in data and accounts maintenance, inventory and stock controls and supply and demand predictions. What used to take days and months is done in a few minutes or hours by the computers. In fact computerization of business activities on a large scale has reduced the workload of managerial personnel. In most countries a basic knowledge of computer science, is a compulsory programme for managerial trainees. PVPSIT………………..□ □ □ ► 2014 5 @7382219990
  • 6. ENGINEERING ECONOMICS ►► Basic economic tools in managerial economics for decision making: Economic theory offers a variety of concepts and analytical tools which can be of considerable assistance to the managers in his decision making practice. These tools are helpful for managers in solving their business related problems. Following are the basic economic tools for decision making: 1. Opportunity cost 2. Incremental principle 3. Principle of the time perspective 4. Discounting principle 5. Equi-marginal principle 1) Opportunity cost principle: By the opportunity cost of a decision is meant the sacrifice of alternatives required by that decision. For e.g. * The opportunity cost of the funds employed in one’s own business is the interest that could be earned on those funds if they have been employed in other ventures. Its clear now that opportunity cost requires ascertainment of sacrifices. If a decision involves no sacrifices, its opportunity cost is nil. For decision making opportunity costs are the only relevant costs. 2) Incremental principle: The two basic components of incremental reasoning are 1. Incremental cost 2. Incremental Revenue “A decision is obviously a profitable one if –  it increases revenue more than costs  it decreases some costs to a greater extent than it increases others 3) Principle of Time Perspective Managerial economists are also concerned with the short run and the long run effects of decisions on revenues as well as costs. The very important problem in decision making is to maintain the right balance between the long run and short run considerations. 4) Discounting Principle: One of the fundamental ideas in Economics is that a rupee tomorrow is worth less than a rupee today. Suppose a person is offered a choice to make between a gift of Rs.100/- today or Rs.100/- next year. Naturally he will chose Rs.100/- today. The reason is .. Even if he is sure to receive the gift in future, today’s Rs.100/- can be invested so as to earn interest say as 8% so that one year after Rs.100/- will become 108. 5) Equi – marginal Principle: This principle deals with the allocation of an available resource among the alternative activities. According to this principle, an input should be so allocated that the value added by the last unit is the same in all cases. This generalization is called the equi-marginal principle. Suppose, a firm has 100 units of labor at its disposal. The firm is engaged in four activities which need labors services, viz, A,B,C and D. it can enhance any one of these activities by adding more labor but only at the cost of other activities. PVPSIT………………..□ □ □ ► 2014 6 @7382219990
  • 7. ENGINEERING ECONOMICS ►► DEMAND ANALYSIS Introduction & Meaning: Demand in common parlance means the desire for an object. But in economics demand is something more than this. According to Stonier and Hague, “Demand in economics means demand backed up by enough money to pay for the goods demanded”. This means that the demand becomes effective only it if is backed by the purchasing power in addition to this there must be willingness to buy a commodity. Thus demand in economics means the desire backed by the willingness to buy a commodity and the purchasing power to pay. In the words of “Benham” “The demand for anything at a given price is the amount of it which will be bought per unit of time at that Price”. (Thus demand is always at a price for a definite quantity at a specified time.) Thus demand has three essentials – price, quantity demanded and time. Without these, demand has to significance in economics. Law of Demand Law of demand shows the relation between price and quantity demanded of a commodity in the market. In the words of Marshall, “the amount demand increases with a fall in price and diminishes with a rise in price”. A rise in the price of a commodity is followed by a reduction in demand and a fall in price is followed by an increase in demand, if a condition of demand remains constant. The law of demand may be explained with the help of the following demand schedule. Demand Schedule. Price of Apple (In. Rs.) Quantity Demanded 10 1 8 2 6 3 4 4 2 5 When the price falls from Rs. 10 to 8 quantity demand increases from 1 to 2. In the same way as price falls, quantity demand increases on the basis of the demand schedule we can draw the demand curve. PVPSIT………………..□ □ □ ► 2014 7 @7382219990
  • 8. ENGINEERING ECONOMICS ►► Price The demand curve DD shows the inverse relation between price and quantity demand of apple. It is downward sloping. Assumptions: Law is demand is based on certain assumptions: 1. This is no change in consumers taste and preferences. 2. Income should remain constant. 3. Prices of other goods should not change. 4. There should be no substitute for the commodity 5. The commodity should not confer at any distinction 6. The demand for the commodity should be continuous 7. People should not expect any change in the price of the commodity Exceptional demand curve: Sometimes the demand curve slopes upwards from left to right. In this case the demand curve has a positive slope. Price When price increases from OP to Op1 quantity demanded also increases from to OQ1 and vice versa. The reasons for exceptional demand curve are as follows. PVPSIT………………..□ □ □ ► 2014 8 @7382219990
  • 9. ENGINEERING ECONOMICS ►► 1. Giffen paradox: The Giffen good or inferior good is an exception to the law of demand. When the price of an inferior good falls, the poor will buy less and vice versa. For example, when the price of maize falls, the poor are willing to spend more on superior goods than on maize if the price of maize increases, he has to increase the quantity of money spent on it. Otherwise he will have to face starvation. Thus a fall in price is followed by reduction in quantity demanded and vice versa. “Giffen” first explained this and therefore it is called as Giffen’s paradox. 2. Veblen or Demonstration effect: ‘Veblen’ has explained the exceptional demand curve through his doctrine of conspicuous consumption. Rich people buy certain good because it gives social distinction or prestige for example diamonds are bought by the richer class for the prestige it possess. It the price of diamonds falls poor also will buy is hence they will not give prestige. Therefore, rich people may stop buying this commodity. 3. Ignorance: Sometimes, the quality of the commodity is Judge by its price. Consumers think that the product is superior if the price is high. As such they buy more at a higher price. 4. Speculative effect: If the price of the commodity is increasing the consumers will buy more of it because of the fear that it increase still further, Thus, an increase in price may not be accomplished by a decrease in demand. 5. Fear of shortage: During the times of emergency of war People may expect shortage of a commodity. At that time, they may buy more at a higher price to keep stocks for the future. 6. Necessaries: In the case of necessaries like rice, vegetables etc. people buy more even at a higher price. Factors Affecting Demand There are factors on which the demand for a commodity depends. These factors are economic, social as well as political factors. The effect of all the factors on the amount demanded for the commodity is called Demand Function. These factors are as follows: 1. Price of the Commodity: The most important factor-affecting amount demanded is the price of the commodity. The amount of a commodity demanded at a particular price is more properly called price demand. The relation between price and demand is called the Law of Demand. It is not only the existing price but also the expected changes in price, which affect demand. 2. Income of the Consumer: The second most important factor influencing demand is consumer income. In fact, we can establish a relation between the consumer income and the demand at different levels of income, price and other things remaining the same. The demand for a normal commodity goes up when income rises and falls down when income falls. But in case of Giffen goods the relationship is the opposite. 3. Prices of related goods: The demand for a commodity is also affected by the changes in prices of the related goods also. Related goods can be of two types: i. Substitutes which can replace each other in use; for example, tea and coffee are substitutes. The change in price of a substitute has effect on a commodity’s PVPSIT………………..□ □ □ ► 2014 9 @7382219990
  • 10. ENGINEERING ECONOMICS ►► demand in the same direction in which price changes. The rise in price of coffee shall raise the demand for tea; ii. Complementary foods are those which are jointly demanded, such as pen and ink. In such cases complementary goods have opposite relationship between price of one commodity and the amount demanded for the other. If the price of pens goes up, their demand is less as a result of which the demand for ink is also less. The price and demand go in opposite direction. The effect of changes in price of a commodity on amounts demanded of related commodities is called Cross Demand. 4. Tastes of the Consumers: The amount demanded also depends on consumer’s taste. Tastes include fashion, habit, customs, etc. A consumer’s taste is also affected by advertisement. If the taste for a commodity goes up, its amount demanded is more even at the same price. This is called increase in demand. The opposite is called decrease in demand. 5. Wealth: The amount demanded of commodity is also affected by the amount of wealth as well as its distribution. The wealthier are the people; higher is the demand for normal commodities. If wealth is more equally distributed, the demand for necessaries and comforts is more. On the other hand, if some people are rich, while the majorities are poor, the demand for luxuries is generally higher. 6. Population: Increase in population increases demand for necessaries of life. The composition of population also affects demand. Composition of population means the proportion of young and old and children as well as the ratio of men to women. A change in composition of population has an effect on the nature of demand for different commodities. 7. Government Policy: Government policy affects the demands for commodities through taxation. Taxing a commodity increases its price and the demand goes down. Similarly, financial help from the government increases the demand for a commodity while lowering its price. 8. Expectations regarding the future: If consumers expect changes in price of commodity in future, they will change the demand at present even when the present price remains the same. Similarly, if consumers expect their incomes to rise in the near future they may increase the demand for a commodity just now. 9. Climate and weather: The climate of an area and the weather prevailing there has a decisive effect on consumer’s demand. In cold areas woolen cloth is demanded. During hot summer days, ice is very much in demand. On a rainy day, ice cream is not so much demanded. 10. State of business: The level of demand for different commodities also depends upon the business conditions in the country. If the country is passing through boom conditions, there will be a marked increase in demand. On the other hand, the level of demand goes down during depression. PVPSIT………………..□ □ □ ► 2014 10 @7382219990
  • 11. ENGINEERING ECONOMICS ►► Important Questions 1. “Managerial Economics is the discipline which deals with the application of economic theory to business management.” Discuss. 2. Managerial economics is the study of the allocation of resources available to a firm or other unit of management among the activities of that unit. Explain. 3. Define Managerial Economics. Explain its nature and Scope. 4. What is Demand? State and Explain the Law of Demand. Are there any exceptions to this Law? 5. What is Demand Analysis? Explain the different factors that influence the demand for a product. 6. What is demand function? How do you determine it? 7. Differentiate extension demand and contraction in demand. Illustrate. 8. Explain the significance of the Law of demand. QUIZ 1. Managerial Economics as a subject gained popularity first in______. (a) India (b) Germany (c) U.S.A (d) England 2. When the subject Managerial Economics gained popularity? (a) 1950 (b) 1949 (c) 1951 (d) 1952 3. Which subject studies the behavior of the firm in theory and practice? (a) Micro Economics (b) Macro Economics (c) Managerial Economics (d) Welfare Economics 4. Which subject bridges gap between Economic Theory and Management Practice? (a) Welfare Economics (b) Micro Economics (c) Managerial Economics (d) Macro Economics 5. Application of Economics for managerial decision-making is called____. (a) Macro Economics (b) Welfare Economics (c) Managerial Economics (d) Micro Economics 6. Which areas covered by the subject “Managerial Economics”. (a) Operational issues (b) Environmental issues (c) Operational & Environmental issues (d) None 7. The relationship between Managerial Economics and Economic Theory is like that of Engineering Science to Physics (or) Medicine to ___________. (a) Mathematics (b) Economics (c) Biology (d) Accountancy PVPSIT………………..□ □ □ ► 2014 11 @7382219990
  • 12. ENGINEERING ECONOMICS ►► 8. Making decisions and processing information are the two Primary tasks of the Managers. It was explained by the subject _____________________. (a) Physics (b) Engineering Science (c) Managerial Economics (d) Chemistry 9. Managerial Economics is close to_________Economics (a) National (b) Business (c) Micro (d) Industrial 10. The theory of firm also called as_____________. (a) Welfare Economics (b) Industrial Economics (c) Micro Economics (d) None 11. “Any activity aimed at earning or spending money is called ____activity”. (a) Service activity (b) Accounting activity (c) Economic activity (d) None 12. Who explained the “Law of Demand”? (a) Joel Dean (b) Cobb-Douglas (c) Marshall (d) C.I.Savage & T.R.Small 13. Demand Curve always ________ sloping. (a) Positive (b) Straight line (c) Negative (d) Vertical 14. Geffen goods, Veblan goods and speculations are exceptions to___. (a) Cost function (b) Production function (c) Law of Demand (d) Finance function 15. Who explained the “Law of Demand”? (a) Cobb-Douglas (b) Adam smith (c) Marshall (d) Joel Dean Note: Answer is “C” for all the above questions. PVPSIT………………..□ □ □ ► 2014 12 @7382219990
  • 13. ENGINEERING ECONOMICS ►► UNIT - II ELASTICITY OF DEMAND Elasticity of demand explains the relationship between a change in price and consequent change in amount demanded. “Marshall” introduced the concept of elasticity of demand. Elasticity of demand shows the extent of change in quantity demanded to a change in price. In the words of “Marshall”, “The elasticity of demand in a market is great or small according as the amount demanded increases much or little for a given fall in the price and diminishes much or little for a given rise in Price” Elastic demand: A small change in price may lead to a great change in quantity demanded. In this case, demand is elastic. In-elastic demand: If a big change in price is followed by a small change in demanded then the demand in “inelastic”. Types of Elasticity of Demand There are three types of elasticity of demand: 1. Price elasticity of demand 2. Income elasticity of demand 3. Cross elasticity of demand 4. Promotional elasticity of demand 1. Price elasticity of demand: Marshall was the first economist to define price elasticity of demand. Price elasticity of demand measures changes in quantity demand to a change in Price. It is the ratio of percentage change in quantity demanded to a percentage change in price. Proportionate change in the quantity demand of commodity Price elasticity = ------------------------------------------------------------------ Proportionate change in the price of commodity There are five cases of price elasticity of demand A. Perfectly elastic demand: When small change in price leads to an infinitely large change is quantity demand, it is called perfectly or infinitely elastic demand. In this case E=∞ PVPSIT………………..□ □ □ ► 2014 13 @7382219990
  • 14. ENGINEERING ECONOMICS ►► The demand curve DD1 is horizontal straight line. It shows the at “OP” price any amount is demand and if price increases, the consumer will not purchase the commodity. B. Perfectly Inelastic Demand: In this case, even a large change in price fails to bring about a change in quantity demanded. When price increases from ‘OP’ to ‘OP’, the quantity demanded remains the same. In other words the response of demand to a change in Price is nil. In this case ‘E’=0. C. Relatively elastic demand: Demand changes more than proportionately to a change in price. i.e. a small change in price loads to a very big change in the quantity demanded. In this case E > 1. This demand curve will be flatter. When price falls from ‘OP’ to ‘OP’, amount demanded in crease from “OQ’ to “OQ1’ which is larger than the change in price. PVPSIT………………..□ □ □ ► 2014 14 @7382219990
  • 15. ENGINEERING ECONOMICS ►► D. Relatively in-elastic demand: Quantity demanded changes less than proportional to a change in price. A large change in price leads to small change in amount demanded. Here E < 1. Demanded carve will be steeper. When price falls from “OP’ to ‘OP1 amount demanded increases from OQ to OQ1, which is smaller than the change in price. E. Unit elasticity of demand: The change in demand is exactly equal to the change in price. When both are equal E=1 and elasticity if said to be unitary. When price falls from ‘OP’ to ‘OP1’ quantity demanded increases from ‘OP’ to ‘OP1’, quantity demanded increases from ‘OQ’ to ‘OQ1’. Thus a change in price has resulted in an equal change in quantity demanded so price elasticity of demand is equal to unity. PVPSIT………………..□ □ □ ► 2014 15 @7382219990
  • 16. ENGINEERING ECONOMICS ►► 2. Income elasticity of demand: Income elasticity of demand shows the change in quantity demanded as a result of a change in income. Income elasticity of demand may be slated in the form of a formula. Proportionate change in the quantity demand of commodity Income Elasticity = ------------------------------------------------------------------ Proportionate change in the income of the people Income elasticity of demand can be classified in to five types. A. Zero income elasticity: Quantity demanded remains the same, even though money income increases. Symbolically, it can be expressed as Ey=0. It can be depicted in the following way: As income increases from OY to OY1, quantity demanded never changes. B. Negative Income elasticity: When income increases, quantity demanded falls. In this case, income elasticity of demand is negative. i.e., Ey < 0. When income increases from OY to OY1, demand falls from OQ to OQ1. PVPSIT………………..□ □ □ ► 2014 16 @7382219990
  • 17. ENGINEERING ECONOMICS ►► C. Unit income elasticity: When an increase in income brings about a proportionate increase in quantity demanded, and then income elasticity of demand is equal to one. Ey = 1 When income increases from OY to OY1, Quantity demanded also increases from OQ to OQ1. D. Income elasticity greater than unity: In this case, an increase in come brings about a more than proportionate increase in quantity demanded. Symbolically it can be written as Ey > 1. It shows high-income elasticity of demand. When income increases from OY to OY1, Quantity demanded increases from OQ to OQ1. E. Income elasticity leas than unity: When income increases quantity demanded also increases but less than proportionately. In this case E < 1. PVPSIT………………..□ □ □ ► 2014 17 @7382219990
  • 18. ENGINEERING ECONOMICS ►► An increase in income from OY to OY, brings what an increase in quantity demanded from OQ to OQ1, But the increase in quantity demanded is smaller than the increase in income. Hence, income elasticity of demand is less than one. 3. Cross elasticity of Demand: A change in the price of one commodity leads to a change in the quantity demanded of another commodity. This is called a cross elasticity of demand. The formula for cross elasticity of demand is: Proportionate change in the quantity demand of commodity “X” Cross elasticity = ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Proportionate change in the price of commodity “Y” A. In case of substitutes, cross elasticity of demand is positive. Eg: Coffee and Tea. When the price of coffee increases, Quantity demanded of tea increases. Both are substitutes. Price of Coffee B. In case of compliments, cross elasticity is negative. If increase in the price of one commodity leads to a decrease in the quantity demanded of another and vice versa. When price of car goes up from OP to OP!, the quantity demanded of petrol decreases from OQ to OQ!. The cross-demanded curve has negative slope. PVPSIT………………..□ □ □ ► 2014 18 @7382219990
  • 19. ENGINEERING ECONOMICS ►► c. In case of unrelated commodities, cross elasticity of demanded is zero. A change in the price of one commodity will not affect the quantity demanded of another. Quantity demanded of commodity “b” remains unchanged due to a change in the price of ‘A’, as both are unrelated goods. Factors influencing the elasticity of demand Elasticity of demand depends on many factors. 1. Nature of commodity: Elasticity or in-elasticity of demand depends on the nature of the commodity i.e. whether a commodity is a necessity, comfort or luxury, normally; the demand for Necessaries like salt, rice etc is inelastic. On the other band, the demand for comforts and luxuries is elastic. 2. Availability of substitutes: Elasticity of demand depends on availability or non-availability of substitutes. In case of commodities, which have substitutes, demand is elastic, but in case of commodities, which have no substitutes, demand is in elastic. 3. Variety of uses: If a commodity can be used for several purposes, than it will have elastic demand. i.e. electricity. On the other hand, demanded is inelastic for commodities, which can be put to only one use. 4. Postponement of demand: If the consumption of a commodity can be postponed, than it will have elastic demand. On the contrary, if the demand for a commodity cannot be postpones, than demand is in elastic. The demand for rice or medicine cannot be postponed, while the demand for Cycle or umbrella can be postponed. 5. Amount of money spent: Elasticity of demand depends on the amount of money spent on the commodity. If the consumer spends a smaller for example a consumer spends a little amount on salt and matchboxes. Even when price of salt or matchbox goes up, demanded will not fall. Therefore, demand is in case of clothing a consumer spends a large proportion of his income and an increase in price will reduce his demand for clothing. So the demand is elastic. PVPSIT………………..□ □ □ ► 2014 19 @7382219990
  • 20. ENGINEERING ECONOMICS ►► 6. Time: Elasticity of demand varies with time. Generally, demand is inelastic during short period and elastic during the long period. Demand is inelastic during short period because the consumers do not have enough time to know about the change is price. Even if they are aware of the price change, they may not immediately switch over to a new commodity, as they are accustomed to the old commodity. 7. Range of Prices: Range of prices exerts an important influence on elasticity of demand. At a very high price, demand is inelastic because a slight fall in price will not induce the people buy more. Similarly at a low price also demand is inelastic. This is because at a low price all those who want to buy the commodity would have bought it and a further fall in price will not increase the demand. Therefore, elasticity is low at very him and very low prices. Importance/significance of Elasticity of Demand The concept of elasticity of demand is of much practical importance. 1. Price fixation: Each seller under monopoly and imperfect competition has to take into account elasticity of demand while fixing the price for his product. If the demand for the product is inelastic, he can fix a higher price. 2. Production: Producers generally decide their production level on the basis of demand for the product. Hence elasticity of demand helps the producers to take correct decision regarding the level of cut put to be produced. 3. Distribution: Elasticity of demand also helps in the determination of rewards for factors of production. For example, if the demand for labour is inelastic, trade unions will be successful in raising wages. It is applicable to other factors of production. 4. International Trade: Elasticity of demand helps in finding out the terms of trade between two countries. Terms of trade refers to the rate at which domestic commodity is exchanged for foreign commodities. Terms of trade depends upon the elasticity of demand of the two countries for each other goods. 5. Public Finance: Elasticity of demand helps the government in formulating tax policies. For example, for imposing tax on a commodity, the Finance Minister has to take into account the elasticity of demand. 6. Nationalization: The concept of elasticity of demand enables the government to decide about nationalization of industries. PVPSIT………………..□ □ □ ► 2014 20 @7382219990
  • 21. ENGINEERING ECONOMICS ►► Demand Forecasting Introduction: The information about the future is essential for both new firms and those planning to expand the scale of their production. Demand forecasting refers to an estimate of future demand for the product. It is an ‘objective assessment of the future course of demand”. In recent times, forecasting plays an important role in business decision-making. Demand forecasting has an important influence on production planning. It is essential for a firm to produce the required quantities at the right time. It is essential to distinguish between forecasts of demand and forecasts of sales. Sales forecast is important for estimating revenue cash requirements and expenses. Demand forecasts relate to production, inventory control, timing, reliability of forecast etc. However, there is not much difference between these two terms. Methods of forecasting Several methods are employed for forecasting demand. All these methods can be grouped under survey method and statistical method. Survey methods and statistical methods are further subdivided in to different categories. PVPSIT………………..□ □ □ ► 2014 21 @7382219990
  • 22. ENGINEERING ECONOMICS ►► I.Survey Methods Survey methods help us in obtaining information about the future purchase plans of potential buyers through collecting the opinions of experts or by interviewing the consumers. These methods are extensively used in short run and estimating the demand for new products. There are different approaches under survey methods. They are A. Consumers’ interview method: Under this method, efforts are made to collect the relevant information directly from the consumers with regard to their future purchase plans. In order to gather information from consumers, a number of alternative techniques are developed from time to time. Among them, the following are some of the important ones. § Survey of buyer’s intentions or preferences: It is one of the oldest methods of demand forecasting. It is also called as “Opinion surveys”. Under this method, consumerbuyers are requested to indicate their preferences and willingness about particular products. They are asked to reveal their ‘future purchase plans with respect to specific items. They are expected to give answers to questions like what items they intend to buy, in what quantity, why, where, when, what quality they expect, how much money they are planning to spend etc. Generally, the field survey is conducted by the marketing research department of the company or hiring the services of outside research organizations consisting of learned and highly qualified professionals. The heart of the survey is questionnaire. It is a comprehensive one covering almost all questions either directly or indirectly in a most intelligent manner. It is prepared by an expert body who are specialists in the field or marketing. The questionnaire is distributed among the consumer buyers either through mail or in person by the company. Consumers are requested to furnish all relevant and correct information. The next step is to collect the questionnaire from the consumers for the purpose of evaluation. The materials collected will be classified, edited analyzed. If any bias prejudices, exaggerations, artificial or excess demand creation etc., are found at the time of answering they would be eliminated. The information so collected will now be consolidated and reviewed by the top executives with lot of experience. It will be examined thoroughly. Inferences are drawn and conclusions are arrived at. Finally a report is prepared and submitted to management for taking final decisions. The success of the survey method depends on many factors. 1) The nature of the questions asked, 2) The ability of the surveyed 3) The representative of the samples 4) Nature of the product 5) characteristics of the market 6) consumer buyers behavior, their intentions, attitudes, thoughts, motives, honesty etc. 7) Techniques of analysis 8) conclusions drawn etc. The management should not entirely depend on the results of survey reports to project future demand. Consumer buyers may not express their honest and real views and as such they may give only the broad trends in the market. In order to arrive at right conclusions, field surveys should be regularly checked and supervised. This method is simple and useful to the producers who produce goods in bulk. Here the burden of forecasting is put on customers. However this method is not much useful in estimating the future demand of the households as they run in large numbers and also do not freely express their future demand requirements. It is expensive and also difficult. Preparation of a questionnaire is not an easy task. At best it can be used for short term forecasting. B. Direct Interview Method Experience has shown that many customers do not respond to questionnaire addressed to them even if it is simple due to varied reasons. Hence, an alternative method is developed. Under this method, customers are directly contacted and interviewed. Direct and simple questions are asked to them. They are requested to answer specifically about their budget, expenditure plans, particular items to be selected, the quality and quantity of products, PVPSIT………………..□ □ □ ► 2014 22 @7382219990
  • 23. ENGINEERING ECONOMICS ►► relative price preferences etc. for a particular period of time. There are two different methods of direct personal interviews. They are as follows: i. Complete enumeration method Under this method, all potential customers are interviewed in a particular city or a region. The answers elicited are consolidated and carefully studied to obtain the most probable demand for a product. The management can safely project the future demand for its products. This method is free from all types of prejudices. The result mainly depends on the nature of questions asked and answers received from the customers. However, this method cannot be used successfully by all sellers in all cases. This method can be employed to only those products whose customers are concentrated in a small region or locality. In case consumers are widely dispersed, this method may not be physically adopted or prove costly both in terms of time and money. Hence, this method is highly cumbersome in nature. ii. Sample survey method or the consumer panel method Experience of the experts’ show that it is impossible to approach all customers; as such careful sampling of representative customers is essential. Hence, another variant of complete enumeration method has been developed, which is popularly known as sample survey method. Under this method, different cross sections of customers that make up the bulk of the market are carefully chosen. Only such consumers selected from the relevant market through some sampling method are interviewed or surveyed. In other words, a group of consumers are chosen and queried about their preferences in concrete situations. The selection of a few customers is known as sampling. The selected consumers form a panel. C. Collective opinion method or Opinion survey method This is a variant of the survey method. This method is also known as “Sales – force polling” or “Opinion poll method”. Under this method, sales representatives, professional experts and the market consultants and others are asked to express their considered opinions about the volume of sales expected in the future. The logic and reasoning behind the method is that these salesmen and other people connected with the sales department are directly involved in the marketing and selling of the products in different regions. Salesmen, being very close to the customers, will be in a position to know and feel the customer’s reactions towards the product. They can study the pulse of the people and identify the specific views of the customers. These people are quite capable of estimating the likely demand for the products with the help of their intimate and friendly contact with the customers and their personal judgments based on the past experience. The main drawback is that it is subjective and depends on the intelligence and awareness of the salesmen. It cannot be relied upon for long term business planning. D. Delphi Method or Experts Opinion Method This method was originally developed at Rand Corporation in the late 1940’s. This method was used to predict future technological changes. It has proved more useful and popular in forecasting non– economic rather than economical variables. It is a variant of opinion poll and survey method of demand forecasting. Under this method, outside experts are appointed. They are supplied with all kinds of information and statistical data. The management requests the experts to express their considered opinions and views about the expected future sales of the company. Their views are generally regarded as most objective ones. Their views generally avoid or reduce the “Halo – Effects” and “Ego – Involvement” of the views of the others. Since experts’ opinions are more valuable, a firm will give lot of importance to them and prepare their future plan on the basis of the forecasts made by the experts. E. End Use or Input – Output Method Under this method, the sale of the product under consideration is projected on the basis of demand surveys of the industries using the given product as an intermediate product. PVPSIT………………..□ □ □ ► 2014 23 @7382219990
  • 24. ENGINEERING ECONOMICS ►► The demand for the final product is the end – use demand of the intermediate product used in the production of the final product. An intermediate product may have many end – users, For e.g., steel can be used for making various types of agricultural and industrial machinery, for construction, for transportation etc. It may have the demand both in the domestic market as well as international market. Thus, end – use demand estimation of an intermediate product may involve many final goods industries using this product, at home and abroad. Once we know the demand for final consumption goods including their exports we can estimate the demand for the product which is used as intermediate good in the production of these final goods with the help of input – output coefficients. The input – output table containing input – output coefficients for particular periods are made available in every country either by the Government or by research organizations. This method is used to forecast the demand for intermediate products only. It is quite useful for industries which are largely producers’ goods, like aluminum, steel etc. The main limitation of the method is that as the number of end – users of a product increase, it becomes more inconvenient to use this method. B.Statistical Methods It is the second most popular method of demand forecasting. It is the best available technique and most commonly used method in recent years. Under this method, statistical, mathematical models, equations etc are extensively used in order to estimate future demand of a particular product. They are used for estimating long term demand. They are highly complex and complicated in nature. Some of them require considerable mathematical back – ground and competence. They use historical data in estimating future demand. The analysis of the past demand serves as the basis for present trends and both of them become the basis for calculating the future demand of a commodity in question after taking into account of likely changes in the future. There are several statistical methods and their application should be done by some one who is reasonably well versed in the methods of statistical analysis and in the interpretation of the results of such analysis. A. Trend Projection Method An old firm operating in the market for a long period will have the accumulated previous data on either production or sales pertaining to different years. If we arrange them in chronological order, we get what is called as ‘time series’. It is an ordered sequence of events over a period of time pertaining to certain variables. It shows a series of values of a dependent variable say, sales as it changes from one point of time to another. In short, a time series is a set of observations taken at specified time, generally at equal intervals. It depicts the historical pattern under normal conditions. This method is not based on any particular theory as to what causes the variables to change but merely assumes that whatever forces contributed to change in the recent past will continue to have the same effect. On the basis of time series, it is possible to project the future sales of a company. Iin order to find out the pattern of change in time series may make use of the following methods. 1. The Least Squares method. 2. The Free hand method. 3. The moving average method. 4. The method of semi – averages. The method of Least Squares is more scientific, popular and thus more commonly used when compared to the other methods. It uses the straight line equation Y= a + bx to fit the trend to the data. Illustration. PVPSIT………………..□ □ □ ► 2014 24 @7382219990
  • 25. ENGINEERING ECONOMICS ►► Under this method, the past data of the company are taken into account to assess the nature of present demand. On the basis of this information, future demand is projected. For e.g., A businessman will collect the data pertaining to his sales over the last 5 years. The statistics regarding the past sales of the company is given below. The table indicates that the sales fluctuate over a period of 5 years. However, there is an up trend in the business. The same can be represented in a diagram. We can find out the trend values for each of the 5 years and also for the subsequent years making use of a statistical equation, the method of Least Squares. In a time series, x denotes time and y denotes variable. With the passage of time, we need to find out the value of the variable. To calculate the trend values i.e., Yc, the regression equation used is Yc = a+ bx. As the values of ‘a’ and ‘b’ are unknown, we can solve the following two normal equations simultaneously. PVPSIT………………..□ □ □ ► 2014 25 @7382219990
  • 26. ENGINEERING ECONOMICS ►► B. Economic Indicators Economic indicators as a method of demand forecasting are developed recently. Under this method, a few economic indicators become the basis for forecasting the sales of a company. An economic indicator indicates change in the magnitude of an economic variable. It gives the signal about the direction of change in an economic variable. This helps in decision making process of a company. We can mention a few economic indicators in this context. 1. Construction contracts sanctioned for demand towards building materials like cement. 2. Personal income towards demand for consumer goods. 3. Agriculture income towards the demand for agricultural in puts, instruments, fertilizers, manure, etc, 4. Automobile registration towards demand for car spare parts, petrol etc., 5. Personal Income, Consumer Price Index, Money supply etc., towards demand For consumption goods. DEMAND FORECASTING FOR A NEW PRODUCT Demand forecasting for new products is quite different from that for established products. Professor Joel Dean, however, has suggested a few guidelines to make forecasting of demand for new products. a. Evolutionary approach The demand for the new product may be considered as an outgrowth of an existing product. For e.g., Demand for new Tata Indica, which is a modified version of Old Indica can most effectively be projected based on the sales of the old Indica, the demand for new Pulsor can be forecasted based on the sales of the old Pulsor. Thus when a new product is evolved from the old product, the demand conditions of the old product can be taken as a basis for forecasting the demand for the new product. b. Substitute approach If the new product developed serves as substitute for the existing product, the demand for the new product may be worked out on the basis of a ‘market share’. The growths of demand for all the products have to be worked out on the basis of intelligent forecasts for independent variables that influence the demand for the substitutes. After that, a portion of the market can be sliced out for the new product. For e.g., A moped as a substitute for a scooter, a cell phone as a substitute for a landline. In some cases price plays an important role in shaping future demand for the product. c. Opinion Poll approach Under this approach the potential buyers are directly contacted, or through the use of samples of the new product and their responses are found out. These are finally blown up to forecast the demand for the new product. d. Sales experience approach Offer the new product for sale in a sample market; say supermarkets or big bazaars in big cities, which are also big marketing centers. The product may be offered for sale through one super market and the estimate of sales obtained may be ‘blown up’ to arrive at estimated demand for the product. e. Growth Curve approach According to this, the rate of growth and the ultimate level of demand for the new product are estimated on the basis of the pattern of growth of established products. For e.g., An Automobile Co., while introducing a new version of a car will study the level of demand for the existing car. f. Vicarious approach:A firm will survey consumers’ reactions to a new product indirectly through getting in touch with some specialized and informed dealers who have good PVPSIT………………..□ □ □ ► 2014 26 @7382219990
  • 27. ENGINEERING ECONOMICS ►► knowledge about the market, about the different varieties of the product already available in the market, the consumers’ preferences etc. This helps in making a more efficient estimation of future demand. These methods are not mutually exclusive. The management can use a combination of several of them supplement and cross check each other. CRITERIA FOR GOOD DEMAND FORECASTING: Apart from being technically efficient and economically ideal a good method of demand forecastin should satisfy a few broad economic criteria. They are as follows: 1. Accuracy: Accuracy is the most important criterion of a demand forecast, even though cent percent accuracy about the future demand cannot be assured. It is generally measured in terms of the past forecasts on the present sales and by the number of times it is correct. 2. Plausibility: The techniques used and the assumptions made should be intelligible to the management. It is essential for a correct interpretation of the results. 3. Simplicity: It should be simple, reasonable and consistent with the existing knowledge. A simple method is always more comprehensive than the complicated one 4. Durability: Durability of demand forecast depends on the relationships of the variables considered and the stability underlying such relationships, as for instance, the relation between price and demand, between advertisement and sales, between the level of income and the volume of sales, and so on. 5. Flexibility: There should be scope for adjustments to meet the changing conditions. This imparts durability to the technique. 6. Availability of data: Immediate availability of required data is of vital importance to business. It should be made available on an uptodate basis. There should be scope for making changes in the demand relationships as they occur. 7. Economy: It should involve lesser costs as far as possible. Its costs must be compared against the benefits of forecasts 8. Quickness: It should be capable of yielding quick and useful results. This helps the management to take quick and effective decisions. Thus, an ideal forecasting method should be accurate, plausible, durable, flexible, make the data available readily, economical and quick in yielding results. Important Questions 1. What is meant by Elasticity of demand? Explain the factors governing it. 2. Explain how you measure Price Elasticity of Demand. 3. Explaint he significance of Elasticity of Demand. 4. Define Price-elasticity of demand. What are the various degrees of Price elasticity? (Interpret the different types of elasticity of demand). 5. What is meant by Demand forecasting? Explain the factors governing it. 6. Explain the characteristics of a good demand forecasting. 7. Explain the procedure of demand forecasting for a new product. 8. Explain any TWO methods of statistical methods for demand forecasting. PVPSIT………………..□ □ □ ► 2014 27 @7382219990
  • 28. ENGINEERING ECONOMICS ►► QUIZ 1. When PE =  (Price Elasticity of Demand is infinite), we call it ___. (a) Relatively Elastic (b) Perfectly Inelastic (c) Perfectly Elastic (d) Unit Elastic 2. Income Elasticity of demand when less than ‘O’ (IE =  O), it is termed as _______. (a) Income Elasticity less than unity (b) Zero income Elasticity (c) Negative Income Elasticity (d) Unit Income Elasticity 3. The other name of inferior goods is _______. (a) Veblan goods (b) Necessaries (c) Geffen goods (d) Diamonds 4. Estimation of future possible demand is called ______. (a) Sales Forecasting (b) Production Forecasting (c) Income Forecasting (d) Demand Forecasting 5. How many methods are employed to forecast the demand (a) Three (b) Four (c) Two (d) Five 6. What is the formula for Price Elasticity of Demand? (a) % of change in the Price (b) % of change in the Demand % of change in the Demand % of change in the Income (c) % of change in the Demand (d) % of change in the Demand of ‘X’ % of change in the Price % of change in the Price of ‘Y’ 7. When a small change in price leads great change in the quantity demand, We call it ________. (a) Inelastic Demand (b) Negative Demand (c) Elastic Demand (d) None 8. When a great change in price leads small change in the quantity demand, We call it ________. (a) Elastic Demand (b) Positive Demand (c) Inelastic Demand (d) None 9. “Coffee and Tea are the ________ goods”. (a) Relative (b) Complementary (c) Substitute (d) None 10. Consumers Survey method is one of the Survey Methods to forecast the__. (a) Sales (b) Income (c) Demand (d) Production PVPSIT………………..□ □ □ ► 2014 28 @7382219990
  • 29. ENGINEERING ECONOMICS ►► 11. What is the formula for Income Elasticity of Demand? (a) % of change in the Income (b) % of change in the Demand % of change in the Demand % of change in the Price (c) % of change in the Demand (d) % of change in the Demand of ‘X’ % of change in the Income % of change in the Price of ‘Y’ 12. What is the formula for Cross Elasticity of Demand? (a) % of change in the Price of ‘X’ (b) % of change in the Demand % of change in the Demand of ‘Y” % of change in the Price (c) % of change in the Demand of ‘X’ (d) % of change in the Demand % of change in the Price of ‘Y’ % of change in the Income 13. When PE = 0 (Price Elasticity of Demand is Zero), we call it ___. (a) Relatively Elastic demand (b) Perfectly Elastic demand (c) Perfectly Inelastic demand (d) Unit Elastic demand 14. When PE =>1 (Price Elasticity of Demand is greater than one), We call it ___. (a) Perfectly Elastic demand (b) Perfectly inelastic demand (c) Relatively Elastic demand (d) relatively inelastic demand 15. When PE =<1 (Price Elasticity of Demand is less than one), We call it ___. (a) Perfectly inelastic demand (b) Relatively Elastic demand (c) Relatively inelastic demand (d) perfectly Elastic demand 16. When PE =1 (Price Elasticity of Demand is one), we call it ___. (a) Perfectly Elastic demand (b) Perfectly inelastic demand (c) Unit elastic demand (d) Relatively Elastic demand 17. When Income Elasticity of demand is Zero (IE = 0), It is termed as ___. (a) Negative Income Elasticity (b) Unit Income Elasticity (c) Zero Income Elasticity (d) Infinite Income Elasticity Note: Answer is “C” for all the above questions. PVPSIT………………..□ □ □ ► 2014 29 @7382219990