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New base 826 special 10 april 2016

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Greetings,



Attached FYI ( NewBase Special 10 April March 2016 ) , from Hawk Energy Services Dubai . Daily energy news covering the MENA area and related worldwide energy news. In todays’ issue you will find news about:-


• UAE: Masdar passes halfway stage on Moroccan solar project to cover 940 villages
• Oman: US Based Capstone Secures Oman Flare Gas Project Deal
• Qatar crude oil production rises to 692,000 bpd in February
• Indonesia 1Q crude output climbs on Exxon's Cepu field boost
• Tunisia: Independent Resources increases interest in Ksar Hadada permit onshore
• India: Oilex announces start of gas production from Bhandut field, onshore Gujarat
• India is becoming new China in energy world
• US oil surges to $39.72, up about 8 pct for week
• Oil price of $60 ‘probably within range’ in medium term
• Russian Energy Minister Says Hopes for Output Deal at Doha
• Baker Hughes: U.S. Drillers Cut Rigs for 3rd Week



we would appreciate your actions to send to all interested parties that you may wish. Also note that if you or your organization wish to include your own article or advert in our circulations, please send it to :-


khdmohd@hotmail.com or khdmohd@hawkenergy.net


Best Regards.




Khaled Al Awadi
Energy Consultant & NewBase Chairman - Senior Chief Editor
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME meme since 1995
Hawk Energy since 2

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New base 826 special 10 april 2016

  1. 1. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1 NewBase 10 April 2016 - Issue No. 826 Edited & Produced by: Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE UAE: Masdar passes halfway stage on Moroccan solar project to cover 940 villages The National - John Everington Masdar announced on Saturday it has passed the halfway mark of its solar project in Morocco that will eventually bring rural electrification to 940 villages across the country. The Abu Dhabi renewable energy firm said it had completed the installation of 9,000 out of a total of 17,670 solar home systems, as part of a partnership signed last March with Morocco’s Office National de l’Electricité et de l’Eau Potable. Each solar home system consists of 290-watt solar panels and batteries with sufficient storage capacity for three days, alongside energy-efficient appliances including LED lamps and a 165-litre refrigerator.
  2. 2. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 2 The kits are designed, supplied and installed under a project that is being executed by the Masdar Special Projects team. “The systems we designed for rural Morocco are adapted to the particular geography, and various technical elements, such as the mounting frames and three-day storage capacity, help the systems function even under snowfall," said Masdar’s special projects director Khaled Ballaith. Masdar said the project is expected to be fully completed by the second half of this year. The project, together with other local initiatives, aims to bring energy access to 99 per cent of rural Morocco by the end of 2017. “The kingdom of Morocco is a mature market for utility-scale renewables, but the country has also made exceptional progress in electrifying rural areas," said the Masdar chief executive Mohamed Jameel Al Ramahi. “This project advances the global goal of delivering sustainable energy for all, and is another remarkable achievement for Morocco as it prepares to host [the United Nations Climate Change Conference] at the end of this year." Morocco last year announced plans to derive 42 per cent of its energy from renewable sources by 2020, consisting of 2 gigawatts each of solar, wind and hydropower, rising to 52 per cent by 2030.
  3. 3. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 3 Oman: US Based Capstone Secures Oman Flare Gas Project Deal Capstone Turbine Corporation Los Angeles based manufacturer of microturbine energy systems, Capstone Turbine Corporation, has received an order for a C200 microturbine to power an oil production station in Muscat, Oman. Pipe Line Supply Company, Capstone's distributor for Oman and Qatar, secured the order which is expected to be commissioned in August 2016, the company said in a statement Friday. The C200 microturbine will be installed in an associated gas recovery application to utilise onsite fuel that would otherwise be flared off. The 200kW microturbine will utilise the associated gas to power onsite oil and gas equipment, helping to increase oil production year-over-year. In addition to the microturbine, Capstone will supply the fuel gas treatment and compression system in cooperation with Compex, a division of BPC Engineering. "Oil and gas operators are realising the many benefits of utilizing associated gas for power generation in a region that is otherwise dependent on diesel," said Jim Crouse, Executive Vice President of Sales and Marketing at Capstone. "Orders like these allow us to further showcase Capstone's industry-leading technology as the industry works to reduce the amount of flare gas globally.”
  4. 4. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 4 Qatar crude oil production rises to 692,000 bpd in February Qatar's crude oil production increased to 692,000 bpd in February compared with 637,000 bpd in January, QNB has said in a new report. Brent crude oil prices picked up to $39.6 a barrel at the end of March this year compared to $36 a month earlier, according to QNB's 'Qatar Monthly Monitor'. QNB expects oil prices to stabilise as excess supply in the global market is reduced by both higher demand and production cuts among high- cost producers, such as US shale oil producers. The report showed Qatar's international reserves were stable at $36.7bn in February 2016 compared to the previous month. In months of prospective import cover, international reserves were also stable at 6.3 months of imports from a month earlier. "We expect international reserves to stabilise going forward as oil prices recover," QNB said. Qatar's trade surplus stabilised at $2bn in February compared to a month earlier, but was down $4.4bn relative to a year earlier. The year-on-year decline was due to the fall in exports, which fell by 32.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) on lower oil prices, while imports rose by 3.5% over the same period. "We expect the merchandise trade surplus to rise in 2016 as oil prices recover," QNB said. The Qatar Central Bank's real estate index rose by 14.3% year-on-year in December 2015 slowing down from 17.8% in November. The real estate price index contracted by 5.9% in December 2015 compared to a month earlier, according to the QCB. Consumer price index (CPI) inflation rose to 3.3% in February from 2.8% in January. Housing and utilities price inflation (21.9% weight in the CPI basket) slowed to 5.7% in February (compared with 6% in January); recreation and culture price inflation (12.7% weight) rose by 9.4% in February (vs 6.1% in January) and food and beverages price inflation (12.6% weight) rose to - 1.3% in February from -1.4% in January. "We expect inflation to pick up on the projected recovery in international food prices in 2016 and higher oil prices in 2017 as well as the one-off effects of increases in fuel, electricity and water prices," QNB said. Broad money contracted by 2.5% in Qatar in February, mainly due to a contraction in foreign currency deposits, QNB said. Broad money (M2) growth contracted by 2.5% in February after a 0.4% rise in January, QNB said. The slowdown was mostly attributable to the contraction in foreign currency deposits of 17.7% in February, and the slowdown in demand deposit growth from 11.1% in January to 3.7% in February. "We expect M2 to rebound as strong population growth is projected to drive an expansion in deposits, QNB said.
  5. 5. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 5 Indonesia 1Q crude output climbs on Exxon's Cepu field boost Source: Reuters via Yahoo! Finance Indonesia's average daily crude output climbed in the first quarter to about 835,000 barrels per day (bpd), an energy ministry official said on Friday, as a result of a long-awaited production increase at Exxon Mobil Corp's Cepu block. Throughout 2015, Indonesia's average daily output was 786,000 bpd, government data presented on Friday showed. Natural gas output in the first quarter was at 8,219 million standard cubic feet per day (mmscfd), compared with an average daily output of 8,078 mmscfd in 2015. 'The Cepu production facility is already full, and the production-sharing contract holders are maintaining output levels,' Oil and Gas Director General Wiratmadja Puja told Reuters by text, when asked about the increase in daily crude output levels. The Banyu Urip project in the Cepu block in East Java province is operated in partnership with state energy company Pertamina and was expected to reach peak output of 165,000 bpd in January. Output from Banyu Urip is crucial to Indonesia's long-term efforts to meet rising domestic oil demand as production declines at its ageing fields. Yet, Exxon has faced a host of problems and setbacks developing Cepu, Indonesia's biggest oil and gas find in the last decade, including a worker dispute that slashed output in August. Crude output from Cepu more than tripled throughout 2015 from around 40,000 bpd in 2014, hitting around 130,000 bpd in December when Exxon commenced operation of the project's central processing facility. 'Once full field production levels are safely reached, the project will represent approximately 20 percent of Indonesia's 2016 annual oil production target,' Exxon said in a statement.
  6. 6. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 6 Tunisia: Independent Resources increases interest in Ksar Hadada permit onshore … Source: Independent Resources AIM-listed Independent Resources has announced that, with immediate effect Independent Resources Ksar Hadada ('IRKH'), a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company, has assumed 100% of the contractor interest in the onshore Ksar Hadada hydrocarbon exploration permit, Tunisia. IRKH is now the sole contractor in the Production Sharing Contract following a successful submission to Entreprise Tunisienne d'Activités Pétrolières ('ETAP') and the Ministry of Industry, Energy and Mines (through its permitting authority Direction Générale de l'Energie ('DGE')) to facilitate the withdrawal of its minority partners. IRKH has requested that ETAP submit an application to DGE for a one-year extension to the Ksar Hadada permit. Further announcements will be made in due course. Greg Coleman, CEO, stated: 'We are pleased to be have increased our interest in the Ksar Hadada permit and will continue to seek a farm-in partner. IRKH will now have greater flexibility to agree new commercial arrangements with interested parties and in the short-term will have a reduced administrative burden as sole contractor. We have been engaged in ongoing discussions with ETAP in order to prepare our application for an extension. Our immediate priorities are to continue planning for the acquisition of 3D seismic, to prepare our drilling programme and to progress discussions with potential farm-in partners. The Company is also continuing to seek both debt and equity finance to meet its future financing requirements.'
  7. 7. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 7 India: Oilex announces start of gas production from Bhandut field, onshore Gujarat…Source: Oilex Oilex has announced the commencement of gas production from the Bhandut field, located onshore Gujarat, India. The Bhandut-3 well is currently flowing at the expected stabilised rate of 0.70MMscfd (120 boepd) through a 8/64" choke. Gas produced from Bhandut-3 is initially processed at the on-site production facilities and then delivered to a third party operated gas processing plant where it is further treated to the required pipeline specification. It is subsequently compressed for entry into the high pressure gas network for delivery to an end user. Bhandut Field Oilex is Operator and holds 40% equity in the Bhandut Field, with Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation (GSPC) holding the remaining equity interest. Previous drilling in the Bhandut wells intersected a number of hydrocarbon zones, some of which have been produced and are now shut in. The Bhandut-3 well is producing from a previously undeveloped sandstone at a depth of 1010m at virgin reservoir pressure. This zone was flow tested by Oilex and the Joint Venture in 2013 confirming good reservoir quality with an average permeability of 124 mD and gas of good quality containing 98.9% hydrocarbons, of which 94% is methane and 1.1% nitrogen and carbon dioxide. As this is the first production from this individual reservoir, the production will be closely monitored to facilitate a greater understanding of its potential. Currently the JV has approval to sell hydrocarbons from this project for 3 months pending completion and approval of a field development plan.
  8. 8. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 8 India is becoming new China in energy world Bloomberg + NewBase The world’s second-most populous nation is increasingly becoming the centre for oil demand growth as its economy expands by luring the type of manufacturing that China is trying to shun. And just like China a decade ago, India is trying to hedge its future energy needs by investing in new production at home and abroad. India may have one advantage its neighbour to the northeast didn’t. While China’s binge came during a commodity super-cycle that saw WTI crude reach a high of $147.27 a barrel in 2008 – due in no small part to its demand – India’s spurt comes during the biggest energy price crash in a generation. While oil has tumbled more than 50% from mid-2014 levels, the South Asian nation spent $60bn less on crude imports in 2015 than the previous year even while buying 4% more. “In addition to the boost from low oil prices, structural and policy-driven changes are under way which could result in India’s oil demand taking off in a similar way to China’s during the late 1990s, when Chinese oil demand was at levels roughly equivalent to current Indian oil demand,” said Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst for Energy Aspects in London. In 1999, China’s economy was less than a 10th of its current size of more than $10tn, and bicycles vied for space with taxis and buses on crowded streets in major cities like Shanghai. In the ensuing 17 years the economy, spurred on by foreign investment in manufacturing, grew from the seventh largest in the world to No 2. Vehicle sales surged and oil demand has nearly tripled since then, positioning the country to overtake the US as the world’s largest crude importer this year. China’s thirst for energy sent its companies on an unprecedented buying binge on every continent (except Antarctica), scooping up $169bn worth of energy assets overseas in the past 10 years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. India’s rise dovetails with a reopening by Iran, once the second-biggest producer in Opec until sanctions choked output and investments. Indian Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan will lead a delegation this month to the country, he said in an interview. India is working with the Gulf state to develop a port in Chabahar, near Iran’s border with Pakistan and about 800 kilometres from India’s west coast. The two countries are also discussing economic zones and joint projects on fertiliser plants and petrochemical projects, Pradhan said. “Our engagement with Iran will be multi-dimensional,” Pradhan said. India appears to be in the same position China was at the start of its growth binge. Asia’s third- biggest economy consumed 4mn barrels of oil last year, according to the International Energy Agency, and is expected to surpass Japan as the world’s third-largest oil user this year. It will be the fastest-growing crude consumer in the world through 2040, according to the IEA, adding 6mn barrels a day of demand, compared to 4.8mn for China. Just like China’s ascent, the growth is being driven by manufacturing. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “Make in India” campaign aims by 2022 to create 100mn new factory jobs and increase manufacturing’s share of the economy to 25% from about 18% when he took office in 2014. Manufacturing drives oil use both by increasing the amount of goods that need to be moved
  9. 9. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 9 around on ships and trucks, and by raising living standards of workers. Rising wages allowed Indians to purchase a record 24mn new vehicles in 2015. “In a growing economy, where there is so much of emphasis on manufacturing, naturally the demand for energy will grow,” B. Ashok, chairman of Indian Oil Corp, the nation’s largest refiner, said in an interview. “The emphasis on manufacturing and infrastructure building contributes a lot to increasing the employment potential, besides bringing in a lot of investments. There is bound to be a lot of more movements on the roads, in terms of goods and services and passengers.” India already relies on imports for 80% of its oil and products needs, so it is also following China’s game plan of investing in energy-producing assets. Indian companies pledged $3bn in asset purchases outside the country in the fourth quarter of 2015, the highest level since 2012, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Firms have proposed paying $5bn toward Siberian oil and gas fields, which would make their equity share about 250,000 barrels a day, compared with total domestic output of 760,000. The timing for such investments is fortunate because low energy prices have made many global majors wary of pouring money into oil and gas fields, said Vikas Halan, Moody’s Investors Service lead analyst for oil and gas companies in South and Southeast Asia. In the past, Indian companies would be elbowed out of the way of such acquisitions by deeper-pocketed competitors, including Chinese oil companies. “What is happening now is that a lot of companies, who were in competition earlier, are not able to compete,” Halan said. “It is effectively a free run for companies who have been sitting on cash, like the Indian ones.” India is also developing its own energy resources. State-owned explorer Oil & Natural Gas Corp recently approved $5bn more to develop a field off the country’s east coast, even as oil firms worldwide delay more than $380bn of projects. The development could add about 10% to India’s oil production and 18% to its natural gas output, data compiled by Bloomberg show. “Economic expansion is priority for the Modi government, and energy is a key part of that story,” said Virendra Chauhan, a Singapore-based oil analyst for Energy Aspects. “Indian energy companies will be strategic in their buying. With prices where they are, it makes sense.”
  10. 10. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 10 NewBase 10 April 2016 Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE US oil surges to $39.72, up about 8 pct for week Reuters + NewBase U.S. oil prices jumped over 6 percent on Friday, posting their largest weekly gain since February, as drawdowns in U.S. crude stockpiles fed hopes that a punishing global oversupply may be nearing tipping point. U.S. gasoline and diesel prices rallied along with crude, rising more than 5 percent each. Gasoline has been one of the strongest pillars of support for U.S. crude this year. Ultra low sulfur diesel, also known as heating oil, has rebounded this week on seasonally cold weather forecasts through late April. Front month U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled at $39.72 a barrel, up $2.46, or 6.6 percent, and gained 7.96 percent for the week. International Brent futures were up $2.38, or 6 percent, at $41.81 a barrel. For the week, both benchmarks were on track to rise about 7 percent, their most since the week ended March 4. "We are starting to draw crude inventories in the U.S." said Scott Shelton, energy broker with ICAP in Durham, North Carolina. "Run rates are rising and U.S. production is falling. Oil price special coverage
  11. 11. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 11 "This is very different I think than what was expected. The market perceives that these draws may continue as the Keystone outage will increase the likelihood," Shelton. U.S. crude stockpiles fell by nearly 5 million barrels last week versus analysts forecasts for a build of 3.2 million barrels, government data showed. The shutdown of the Keystone crude pipeline that delivers oil to Cushing also contributed to a drop of more than 480,000 barrels at the Oklahoma delivery point for U.S. crude futures in the five days to Tuesday, data from market intelligence firm Genscape showed. The number of oil rigs operating in U.S. oil fields fell by 8 to a total of 354 in the previous week, oilfield services firm Baker Hughes said Friday. At this time last year, drillers had 760 oil rigs online. "There are some folks who are expecting U.S. oil production to come down fairly rapidly now," John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital told CNBC. Summer maintenance in the North Sea fields that form the basis of the Brent benchmark also helped boost near-term prices. Brent futures on Tuesday flipped into backwardation, meaning the front-month contract traded lower than forward prices, Kilduff said. That marked a change in trend and provided a bullish structure for the international benchmark, he said. A rebound in financial markets also boosted optimism over demand. The U.S. Federal Reserve said the country was on the path of more economic growth, while rating agency Moody's said Germany, Europe's biggest economy, should see a slight acceleration in growth to 1.8 percent. Some traders also cited optimism over an upcoming meeting of major oil producers in Doha in April that was intended to set in motion a plan to freeze production at January's highs. Russia's oil production could fall in April, sources said, while the country's energy minister expressed hopes that producer nations could agree to the freeze. Still, some warned that oil prices could fall again, dragged down by a glut that will take time to clear and soaring production outside the United States, especially in parts of the Middle East. "We believe the current oil price is unsustainable and expect a fundamental price recovery when markets move into better balance in mid- to late-2H16," investment bank Jefferies said, adding that "the recovery could be protracted." Iraq said on Thursday that exports from its southern ports had hit almost 3.5 million bpd by April, up from an average of 3.29 million bpd in March, putting doubts on the feasibility of the meeting to freeze output levels. Iran, which was relieved from crippling international sanctions in January which had cut its crude exports to little more than 1 million bpd, has said it would only participate in a production freeze once it had regained its pre-sanctions levels of 4 million bpd, pouring cold water on any hopes that ballooning oversupply can be reined in soon.
  12. 12. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 12 Oil price of $60 ‘probably within range’ in medium term Gulf Times + NewBase With demand growth proving resilient and high-cost US producers cutting their output, oil prices may recover further and a price of $60/barrel is “probably within range” in the medium term, according to QNB. Oil prices have enjoyed a recovery in recent weeks. They rose from $28 a barrel in mid-January to around $40/b now. While a potential production freeze by some oil producers might have contributed to the recovery, there are also signs that the market is rebalancing, QNB said in an economic commentary. “We expect the rebalancing to continue and forecast oil prices to recover further, averaging $41 in 2016, $51 in 2017 and $56 in 2018,” QNB said. According to estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA), oil markets were over- supplied by around 1.8mn barrels per day (bpd) in 2015. Four questions are likely to determine how this excess supply will be cleared and therefore shape oil markets in the short term. First, will the strong demand growth (which reached 1.8mn bpd in 2015—a five-year high) persist? Second, how will the high-cost US shale producers respond to low prices, which are making some of their projects unviable? Third, what production will Iran add after the lifting of sanctions? Fourth, how will the rest of Opec respond to low prices?
  13. 13. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 13 In 2016, QNB expects excess supply to fall to 1.2mn bpd from 1.8mn bpd in 2015. Part of this contraction will be due to higher demand, which we expect to grow by 1.2mn bpd. Emerging markets are likely to remain the main source of demand growth, given the booming consumer sector, especially in China and the rest of emerging Asia. On the supply side, QNB expects production cuts in the US. Indeed, production data show that US oil output has been in decline since April 2015. Offsetting this, QNB forecasts additional production from Iran after the lifting of sanction. Iran has already added 370,000 bpd since January, according to preliminary data from the IEA. Finally, QNB expects that the rest of Opec to increase supply relative to last year as crude production is maintained at current high levels. The overall reduction in excess supply should result in oil prices averaging $41/b in 2016. In 2017, excess supply should fall further to 0.4mn bpd as the market continues rebalancing. Demand growth is expected to continue at 1.2mn bpd. On the supply-side, additional production from Opec, especially Iran and Iraq, is expected to be partially offset by lower US production. The continued rebalancing should push prices to an average of $51/b. In the medium term, oil prices should be determined by the cost of the marginal producer, in this case US shale companies. Oil analysts currently estimate this cost to be $60/b. “We therefore expect a gradual convergence of oil prices to this level, leading to an average oil price of $56/b in 2018,” QNB said. Oil markets, QNB noted are not different from other markets. When over-supplied, they have a tendency to self-adjust through higher demand and lower supply. This adjustment is currently underway, as recent data confirm. In the medium term, the price is determined by the costs of US shale companies. If prices rise above shale companies’ cost, they can quickly respond by increasing their production, driving prices down again. “This means that oil prices of $100/b may well be a thing of the past, but a price of $60/b is probably within range in the medium term,” QNB said.
  14. 14. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 14 Russian Energy Minister Says Hopes for Output Deal at Doha Reuters|Olesya Astakhova Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak hopes leading oil producers will agree to freeze output at a meeting in Doha on April 17, he said on Friday, which should help the global oil market to rebalance. Russia, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Qatar agreed in February to freeze production at January levels, but said at the time the deal was contingent on other producers joining in. The April 17 meeting is aimed at cementing that agreement with other OPEC and non-OPEC producers, which could help reduce an oil glut that has driven oil prices down by around 60 percent since mid-2014. The oil market is over supplied by around 1.5 million barrels per day, according to Moscow's estimates. "Of course, we hope (for a deal)," Novak told reporters on the sidelines of a conference. "Otherwise we would have not discussed this issue." "A freeze at January levels is being discussed, but other proposals could be made," he added. An OPEC source told Reuters production could be frozen at January, February, March or even first-quarter levels. Russia and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries were both pumping oil at near record volumes in January. Russia, the world's second-largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia, was pumping at a 30-year high last month of 10.91 million barrels per day (bpd). Two sources close to the energy ministry told Reuters on Friday production could fall to 10.84 to 10.86 million bpd this month, compared with January levels of 10.88 million bpd. Russian oil output could be 536 to 540 million tonnes this year, or 10.73 to 10.81 million bpd, Alexei Texler, Russia's first deputy energy minister, told reporters on Friday. Oil exports could rise by 3.5 percent this year. Iran has rejected freezing its output at January levels, which OPEC secondary sources have estimated to be 2.93 million barrels per day, and wants to return to much higher pre-sanctions production. Sanctions imposed on Iran in early 2012 by the United States and European Union over its nuclear programme cut crude exports from a peak of 2.5 million bpd before 2011 to just over 1 million bpd in recent years.
  15. 15. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 15 NewBase Special Coverage News Agencies News Release 10 April 2016 Baker Hughes: U.S. Drillers Cut Rigs for 3rd Week by Reuters U.S. energy firms cut oil rigs for a third week in a row to the lowest level since November 2009, oil services company Baker Hughes Inc said Friday, as energy firms keep slashing spending despite crude futures prices jumping roughly 50 percent since hitting a near 13-year low in February. Drillers cut 8 oil rigs in the week to April 8, bringing the total rig count down to 354, Baker Hughes said in its closely followed report. The number of U.S. oil rigs currently operating compares with 760 rigs operating in the same week a year ago. In 2015, drillers cut on average 18 oil rigs per week for a total of 963 for the year, the biggest annual decline since at least 1988 amid the biggest rout in crude prices in a generation. Before this week, drillers cut on average 13 oil rigs per week for a total of 174 so far this year. Energy firms have sharply reduced oil and natural gas drilling since the selloff in crude markets began in mid-2014. U.S. crude futures collapsed from over $107 a barrel in June 2014 to a near 13-year low around $26 in February. U.S. drilling services company Patterson-UTI Energy Inc said it had 64 drilling rigs in operation in March, compared with 142 during the same month in 2015. But with U.S. crude futures trading around $40 a barrel, up about 50 percent since hitting the February low, some analysts think the rig count will rise later this year and next year as prices increase.
  16. 16. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 16 Looking forward, U.S. crude futures were fetching around $42 a barrel for the balance of 2016 and about $44 for calendar 2017. With the decline in oil rigs this week and an increase of one natural gas rig , total U.S. oil and gas rigs fell for a 16th week in a row, down seven to 443, the lowest since at least 1940, according to Baker Hughes data going back that far. Analysts at Cowen & Co, a U.S. financial services firm, this week estimated the number of active U.S. natural gas and oil rigs would slide from an average 559 in the first quarter to 411 in the second quarter and 401 in the third quarter before rising to 415 in the fourth quarter. In Texas, meanwhile, land rigs fell below 200 to 195 for the first time since at least 2000.
  17. 17. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 17 NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE Your partner in Energy Services NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE. For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA Emarat member since 1990 ASME member since 1995 Hawk Energy member 2010 Mobile: +97150-4822502 khdmohd@hawkenergy.net khdmohd@hotmail.com Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels. NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE NewBase 10 April 2016 K. Al Awadi
  18. 18. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 18
  19. 19. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 19

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