Energy Boom: Why Canada will be a Global Leader Derek Gates, CFA Founder  SWM Oil Sands Sector Index  TM   SWM Canadian En...
Cautionary Statement & Disclaimer <ul><li>This presentation includes forward looking statements.  Actual results may vary ...
Executive Summary <ul><li>Global Demand for all sources of energy are expected to increase by over 50% by 2030 from curren...
Global Demand for Energy <ul><li>Population growth and rapid industrialization of China, India and the Middle East is driv...
World Energy Use by Fuel Type,  1980-2030 Oil Natural Gas Coal 37.3% 25.4% 8.1% Renewable Nuclear 19.9% 6.8% Future Share ...
Failing to Plan and Invest <ul><li>Coal will become the dominant energy source in the world </li></ul><ul><li>After the cr...
World Energy Use by Fuel Type,  1980-2030 Failure to Plan Scenario Oil Natural Gas Coal 37.9% 24.9% 8.1% Renewable Nuclear...
Sustainable Energy Future <ul><li>Renewable energy such as wind, solar and biomass must be developed faster </li></ul><ul>...
Sustainable World Energy Use by Fuel Type,  1980-2030 Sustainable Development Plan Oil Natural Gas Coal 24.9% 24.2% 20.4% ...
Global Crude Oil Production is at Peak <ul><li>Global supply for crude oil has been flat since 2004 </li></ul><ul><li>Prod...
Source:  SWM Ltd. Projections © , IEA WEO 2008
Source:  SWM Ltd. Projections © , IEA WEO 2008 Major Producers are at a Plateau FSU Russia
Source:  SWM Ltd. Projections © , IEA WEO 2008 Our Friends are Tapped Out
Source:  SWM Ltd. Projections © , IEA WEO 2008 OPEC is Not Increasing Production
Source: Sustainable Wealth Management Ltd., Bloomberg
Source: IEA WEO 2008, EIA Oil Market Report, SWM Ltd estimates Demand Grows,  Existing Production is Flat
New Global Oil Requirements 2009 - 2018 Source: Sustainable Wealth Management Ltd. projections
Lack of Investment Opportunities <ul><li>Over $26 Trillion US$ of energy investment is needed between now and 2030.  Half ...
 
Source:  SWM Ltd. Projections © , IEA WEO 2008
Source:  SWM Ltd. Projections © , IEA WEO 2008
Canada: The Future Oil King <ul><li>Canada will soon be recognized as having the largest oil reserves in the world and wil...
Oil Export Leaders 2007 to 2015 Source:  SWM Ltd. Projections © , IEA WEO 2008
Oil Export Leaders 2030 Source:  SWM Ltd. Projections © , IEA WEO 2008
Production to continue for 100+ years Source: Sustainable Wealth Management Ltd. Estimates ©, IEA Reserves Production Rate...
Best Buying Opportunity in 4 Years! Source: Bloomberg, Sustainable Wealth Management, Ltd. Production is up over 50% since...
Canada’s Other Energy Resources – Nuclear <ul><li>Canada is the world’s largest producer of uranium, providing over 25% of...
Canada’s Other Energy Resources – Natural Gas <ul><li>Canada is the world’s third largest producer of natural gas and the ...
Canada’s Other Energy Resources – Coal <ul><li>Canada has about 10 Billion Tonnes of Coal of which we produce about 100 Mi...
Canada’s Other Energy Resources – Hydroelectric <ul><li>Canada is the largest producer of hydroelectric power in the world...
Canada’s Other Energy Resources – Wind <ul><li>Current installed capacity provides electricity to over 563,000 homes, abou...
Canada’s Other Energy Resources – Biomass <ul><li>Current installed capacity is 1,500 MW mostly using wood waste in the fo...
Contact Information Derek Gates, CFA, CIM, CFP, FCSI President & CIO Sustainable Wealth Management Ltd. Suite 224, 222 – 1...
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Energy Boom: Why Canada will be a Global Leader

  1. 1. Energy Boom: Why Canada will be a Global Leader Derek Gates, CFA Founder SWM Oil Sands Sector Index TM SWM Canadian Energy Income Index TM
  2. 2. Cautionary Statement & Disclaimer <ul><li>This presentation includes forward looking statements. Actual results may vary significantly due to numerous factors both known and unknown to the author. The information contained in this presentation is not intended to constitute investment advice and investors contemplating investing in the sector should seek professional advice before doing so and must not rely on the assertions, facts, opinions and projections provided in this presentation. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Market information used on this website is obtained from non-proprietary market sources. While we believe this information to be accurate, Sustainable Wealth Management, Ltd. and its affiliates cannot attest to the validity of information culled from other sources The information provided does not constitute a solicitation of an offer to buy, or an offer to sell securities in any jurisdiction to any person to whom it is not lawful to make such an offer. All rights reserved. The contents of the SWM website are protected by applicable copyright laws. No permission is granted to copy, distribute, modify, post or frame any text, graphics, video, audio, software code or user interface design or logos. Unauthorized downloading, re-transmission, storage in any medium, copying, redistribution, reproduction, or republication for any purpose is strictly prohibited. The Sustainable Wealth Management logos and “Sustainable Wealth Management, Ltd” are protected under various Trademark Registrations in International Class 36 and are the sole property of Sustainable Wealth Management, Ltd. </li></ul>
  3. 3. Executive Summary <ul><li>Global Demand for all sources of energy are expected to increase by over 50% by 2030 from current levels (IEA, World Energy Report 2008) </li></ul><ul><li>Canada is in a unique position to benefit from this trend with world class reserves in many of the key energy commodities such as crude oil, uranium, natural gas and coal </li></ul><ul><li>You will learn how profitable investing in the energy sector will be over the next few decades and how you can profit from this mega trend by investing in the key growth sectors. </li></ul>
  4. 4. Global Demand for Energy <ul><li>Population growth and rapid industrialization of China, India and the Middle East is driving energy demand up </li></ul><ul><li>Despite conservation and increased energy efficiency, demand will grow by 1.6% per year or by 45% from current levels by 2030 </li></ul><ul><li>Fossil fuels are still expected to represent over 83% of our energy needs in 2030 </li></ul>
  5. 5. World Energy Use by Fuel Type, 1980-2030 Oil Natural Gas Coal 37.3% 25.4% 8.1% Renewable Nuclear 19.9% 6.8% Future Share Of World Total History Projections 39.7% 23.3% 22.4% 8.2% 3.7% Source: EIA, IEA – WEO 2008 Hydro 2.5% Hydro 2.6% Nuclear Renewable Natural Gas Coal Oil Current Share Of World Total
  6. 6. Failing to Plan and Invest <ul><li>Coal will become the dominant energy source in the world </li></ul><ul><li>After the crude oil and natural gas production will peak, coal and oil sands will have to substitute at the expense of the environment </li></ul><ul><li>Nuclear, renewable and hydroelectric power will be developed too slowly to avert economic and environmental disaster </li></ul>
  7. 7. World Energy Use by Fuel Type, 1980-2030 Failure to Plan Scenario Oil Natural Gas Coal 37.9% 24.9% 8.1% Renewable Nuclear 19.9% 6.8% Future Share Of World Total History Projections 39.7% 23.3% 22.4% 8.2% 3.7% Hydro 2.5% Hydro 2.6% Nuclear Renewable Natural Gas Coal Oil Current Share Of World Total Source: SWM Ltd. Projections ©
  8. 8. Sustainable Energy Future <ul><li>Renewable energy such as wind, solar and biomass must be developed faster </li></ul><ul><li>Crude oil and natural gas production will peak soon, coal and oil sands will have to substitute while renewable energy is developed </li></ul><ul><li>Nuclear power is an important addition to the energy mix and should be used in combination with energy extraction </li></ul>
  9. 9. Sustainable World Energy Use by Fuel Type, 1980-2030 Sustainable Development Plan Oil Natural Gas Coal 24.9% 24.2% 20.4% Renewable Nuclear 19.9% 8.1% Future Share Of World Total History Projections 39.7% 23.3% 22.4% 8.2% 3.7% Source: SWM Ltd. Projections © Hydro 2.5% Hydro 2.6% Nuclear Renewable Natural Gas Coal Oil Current Share Of World Total
  10. 10. Global Crude Oil Production is at Peak <ul><li>Global supply for crude oil has been flat since 2004 </li></ul><ul><li>Producing oil wells are depleting by at 5.1% per year globally (IEA – World Energy Outlook, 2008) </li></ul><ul><li>Exploration and development costs for crude oil continue to climb as new sources of easy to find and extract oil becomes more scarce </li></ul><ul><li>The quality of crude oil being extracted is declining, refineries need to focus on bitumen and heavy oil </li></ul>Source: Sustainable Wealth Management Ltd., IEA
  11. 11. Source: SWM Ltd. Projections © , IEA WEO 2008
  12. 12. Source: SWM Ltd. Projections © , IEA WEO 2008 Major Producers are at a Plateau FSU Russia
  13. 13. Source: SWM Ltd. Projections © , IEA WEO 2008 Our Friends are Tapped Out
  14. 14. Source: SWM Ltd. Projections © , IEA WEO 2008 OPEC is Not Increasing Production
  15. 15. Source: Sustainable Wealth Management Ltd., Bloomberg
  16. 16. Source: IEA WEO 2008, EIA Oil Market Report, SWM Ltd estimates Demand Grows, Existing Production is Flat
  17. 17. New Global Oil Requirements 2009 - 2018 Source: Sustainable Wealth Management Ltd. projections
  18. 18. Lack of Investment Opportunities <ul><li>Over $26 Trillion US$ of energy investment is needed between now and 2030. Half to be invested in power generation, half in energy production, mostly in fossil fuels </li></ul><ul><li>At least 75% of proven global oil reserves are controlled by National Oil Companies (NOCs) </li></ul><ul><li>Canada represents at least 55% of global reserves that can be invested in privately </li></ul><ul><li>New discoveries are very scarce, most known oil and gas reserves are already being developed </li></ul>
  19. 20. Source: SWM Ltd. Projections © , IEA WEO 2008
  20. 21. Source: SWM Ltd. Projections © , IEA WEO 2008
  21. 22. Canada: The Future Oil King <ul><li>Canada will soon be recognized as having the largest oil reserves in the world and will become the largest oil exporter by 2030 </li></ul><ul><li>Geopolitically stable and the largest crude exporter to the US (16% of all US imports) </li></ul><ul><li>Oil companies are all independently owned </li></ul><ul><li>Established industry which is open to foreign investment </li></ul>
  22. 23. Oil Export Leaders 2007 to 2015 Source: SWM Ltd. Projections © , IEA WEO 2008
  23. 24. Oil Export Leaders 2030 Source: SWM Ltd. Projections © , IEA WEO 2008
  24. 25. Production to continue for 100+ years Source: Sustainable Wealth Management Ltd. Estimates ©, IEA Reserves Production Rate (boe/d) Years of Production at Estimated Production Rates Current Reserves under development 83.9 Billion boe 1,150,000 boe/day 200 Total Proven Reserves 174 Billion boe 3,600,000 boe/day (IEA Estimate for 2018) 132 Total Proven & Probable Reserves 305 Billion boe 5,900,000 boe/day (IEA Estimate for 2030) 142
  25. 26. Best Buying Opportunity in 4 Years! Source: Bloomberg, Sustainable Wealth Management, Ltd. Production is up over 50% since 2004 and average oil prices have increased significantly.
  26. 27. Canada’s Other Energy Resources – Nuclear <ul><li>Canada is the world’s largest producer of uranium, providing over 25% of world supply </li></ul><ul><li>Canada is second only to Australia in terms of uranium reserves </li></ul><ul><li>Canada has its own nuclear power plant design and producers 16% of its electricity needs from uranium </li></ul>Source: World Nuclear Association
  27. 28. Canada’s Other Energy Resources – Natural Gas <ul><li>Canada is the world’s third largest producer of natural gas and the largest supplier of natural gas to the United States </li></ul><ul><li>Conventional reserves are 58 Tcf, and Natural Gas from Coal could add 200 Tcf to 550 Tcf </li></ul><ul><li>Tight gas and shale gas will add another 500+ Tcf to Canada’s natural gas reserves </li></ul>Source: Canadian Society for Unconventional Gas, CAPP
  28. 29. Canada’s Other Energy Resources – Coal <ul><li>Canada has about 10 Billion Tonnes of Coal of which we produce about 100 Million Tonnes per year </li></ul><ul><li>Canada is one of the world’s largest producers of coking coal for steel production </li></ul><ul><li>We have a 100 year plus supply of coal at our present consumption rate </li></ul>Source: Coal Association of Canada
  29. 30. Canada’s Other Energy Resources – Hydroelectric <ul><li>Canada is the largest producer of hydroelectric power in the world, representing over 13% of world production </li></ul><ul><li>The is another 182,832 MW of new potential power projects, 34,371 MW is practical in today’s economic and environmental situation </li></ul><ul><li>Canada is the lowest cost producer of hydroelectric power in the world </li></ul>Source: International Journal on Hydropower and Dams, Government of Canada
  30. 31. Canada’s Other Energy Resources – Wind <ul><li>Current installed capacity provides electricity to over 563,000 homes, about 3% of world capacity </li></ul><ul><li>Canada’s has the world’s longest coastline and some of the world’s largest plain land areas, giving it one of the largest potential wind resource </li></ul><ul><li>We have a 100 year plus supply of coal at our present consumption rate </li></ul>Source: Canadian Wind Energy Association
  31. 32. Canada’s Other Energy Resources – Biomass <ul><li>Current installed capacity is 1,500 MW mostly using wood waste in the forestry industry </li></ul><ul><li>Canada has 10% of the world’s forests and a large agricultural sector to provide feedstock </li></ul><ul><li>1,500,000 Canadian homes rely on wood for home heating </li></ul><ul><li>Ethanol production from wheat, corn and other sources could triple in the near future from current production of 175 million L per year </li></ul>Source: Centre for Energy, Forestry Canada
  32. 33. Contact Information Derek Gates, CFA, CIM, CFP, FCSI President & CIO Sustainable Wealth Management Ltd. Suite 224, 222 – 16 th Ave NE Calgary Alberta T2E 1J8 Phone 403 454-0881 Fax 403 454-0882

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