Nws binghamton briefing2_2013_0612


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Nws binghamton briefing2_2013_0612

  1. 1. NWS BinghamtonHeavy Rain/Flood PotentialBriefing #2Issued 400 pm Wednesday 06/12/2013Jim BrewsterService Hydrologist/MeteorologistNational Weather ServiceBinghamton, NY
  2. 2. This Briefing applies to the NWS Binghamton ServiceArea only- This area includesbut isnot limitedtocitiessuch asSyracuse,Utica,Ithaca,Elmira,BinghamtonandOneontain NY State.- This area includesbut isnot limitedtocitiessuch asTowanda, Montrose,Scranton,Wilkes-BarreinPA.
  3. 3. Executive Summary- An unusually strong low pressure system will track from Iowa to across theOhio Valley tonight, to off the New Jersey coast by Thursday evening.- Rain will develop Thursday Morning and last until Thursday night.- Potential exists for a broad area of 1 to 3 inches northern half of our area to2 to 4 inches across northeastPAand southeastNY.- Lake and Reservoir levels could rise 1 to 2 feet. Spill flows on regionalreservoirs will likely increase.- Flash floodpotential will be moderate to high on smaller river tributaries,streams, urban andflood prone areas.-The timing of highest potential for flash flooding would be Thursdaymorning until the evening.-The timing of highest potential for river flooding wouldbe Thursday nightthroughFriday night.
  4. 4. Recent PrecipitationSearch:National Weather ServiceBinghamtonNWS BinghamtonIssued: 6/12/20134:00 PMFollowUs:@NWSBinghamtonHighlights- Above normal rainfall hasoccurred in the last twoweeks across the FingerLakes region to the UpperSusquehanna and UpperDelaware.- Below normal rain hasbeen the case in theChemung and MainStemSusquehanna.
  5. 5. Current Status of River and Stream FlowsSearch:National Weather ServiceBinghamtonNWS BinghamtonIssued: 6/12/20134:00 PMFollowUs:@NWSBinghamtonStream flows running well above normal at many gauges for this time of year
  6. 6. Forecast Rainfall through Thursday NightSearch:National Weather ServiceBinghamtonNWS BinghamtonIssued: 6/12/2013400 PMFollowUs:@NWSBinghamtonRainfall rangingfrom 1 to 2 inchesextending southfrom the FingerLakes to theSouthern Tier with2 to 4 inches acrossnortheast PA andthe Catskills.
  7. 7. Rainfall Timing: Model Projected Radar5 am Thu11 am Thu 2 pm Thu8 pm Thu
  8. 8. Potential for mainly Minor River FloodingSearch:National Weather ServiceBinghamtonNWS BinghamtonIssued: 6/12/20134:00 PMFollowUs:@NWSBinghamtonMinor flooding = Orange DotsModerate flooding = Red DotsMajor Flooding = Purple DotsHighest threatswill be to thetributariesand reservoirs of theDelaware river basin, plus areasof the Upper Susquehanna.
  9. 9. Plausible Worst Case Scenario(not what we currently expect is likely to happen)• Widespread 3 to 5 inches of rain.• Minor flooding expands to most river points withlocally moderate river flooding in hardest hitbasins.• Significant lake and reservoir rises of 2-3 feet ormore.• Widespread moderate to severe flash flooding.• Likelihood of this is small 5-10%.
  10. 10. Potential ImpactsSearch:National Weather ServiceBinghamtonNWS BinghamtonIssued: 6/12/20134:00 PMFollowUs:@NWSBinghamton- Significant rises of area rivers and lakes likely tomorrow into Friday.- Minor River Flooding possible at many gauges in the Susquehanna inNY and the Delaware basin from Thursday night into Friday night.Headwaters mostvulnerable. Slight potential for isolated moderateflooding.- Good chance for small stream flash flooding and urban flooding.- Initial flood planning should be considered in all major basins.
  11. 11. NWS Binghamton-led audio/webinar will be held forthe Delaware River Basin countiesonlyat 11:30 AM Thursday.- Another PDF Briefing will be issued Thursday morning.Additional decisions for webinar briefings in other areas willbe made as the event unfolds.For continuous updates:– General Weather Info: http://weather.gov/bgm– Graphical Forecasts: http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/wfo/sectors/bgm.php#tabs– River Forecasts:http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=bgm– Probability River Forecasts:http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mmefs/