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Disrupted futures - Shaping Tomorrow Trend Alert

Driving forces: Over the next 10 years the world of work is set to rapidly change, with the World Economic Forum predicting that disruptive changes to business models will have a profound impact on the employment landscape in the coming years

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Disrupted futures - Shaping Tomorrow Trend Alert

  1. 1. Disrupted Futures 5th November 2019
  2. 2. Introduction Read on to discover what our robot, Athena, has found on the future of travel and act accordingly for you, your family and organization in the years ahead Or, click any link to read the evidence she found in 2,210 forecasts she gleaned from reports, articles and PowerPoints from the Web and Social Media in a few seconds If you are new to foresight, we recommend you view this slide presentation first to get the best out of this report Analysis For more detailed explanation of the graphics used in this presentation please click here. All outlooks based on 2025 unless otherwise stated Speaker notes are also provided on every page to assist you in interpreting the slide. 2 All Rights Reserved
  3. 3. Driving Forces All Rights Reserved 3 Over the next 10 years the world of work is set to rapidly change, with the World Economic Forum predicting that disruptive changes to business models will have a profound impact on the employment landscape in the coming years
  4. 4. Trends Combining all three trends - disruption to international trade, governance challenges at the IMF and a spike in economic risk - will almost certainly result in serious consequences for the global economy All Rights Reserved 4
  5. 5. Causes The World Economic Forum's (WEF) Global Risks Report 2018 names cyberattacks and cyber warfare as a top cause of disruption in the next five years. The two key sectors causing change are Technology and Government All Rights Reserved 5
  6. 6. Consequences The speed of disruption across all industry sectors will not take years or even months but only an instant in future All Rights Reserved 6
  7. 7. Solutions All Rights Reserved 7 One of the top potential disruptive technologies in the next five years or so will be the use of quantum computing or quantum computing services to solve difficult problems and offer new applications
  8. 8. Cloud All Rights Reserved 8 2019 will witness new enterprise resource planning (ERP trends) getting introduced in the market which can disrupt the entire business and technical scenario in an organization
  9. 9. Systems Map Digital technologies, particularly AI, Blockchain, Cyber and automation will be at the heart of disruptions affecting every sector All Rights Reserved 9
  10. 10. Radar Smart cities, integrated travel and new forms of marketing will lead the charge, followed by greater use of sustainable materials and efforts to contain cyberattacks All Rights Reserved 10
  11. 11. Graph-It By 2025, healthcare diagnoses and treatments will increasingly be digital and carried out in the home rather than in hospitals, use of AI will have advanced dramatically in all sectors and most consumption will have been initiated and, in non- physical objects, delivered in real-time All Rights Reserved 11
  12. 12. Trend Waves The level of expected future disruption has almost doubled in the last four years. It’s effect will last until at least 2036. All organizations need to know what’s emerging far faster than four years ago or they risk joining the ranks of those who failed to see the future: high-street shops, newspapers etc Four years ago Now
  13. 13. Sentiment Positive sentiments mainly revolve around better health outcomes and improved leadership as a result of better data partially offset by fear of extremists, geopolitical conflict and loss of key resources such as water. Overall sentiment is very positive however All Rights Reserved 13
  14. 14. Negative sentiments from recent Xtinction Rebellion protests may change public opinion going forward and continued geopolitical conflict and concerns for future jobs continue to impact news headlines 14 Latest Sentiment
  15. 15. 15 Influencers The technology and energy sectors are leading emerging change with the USA, China and the UK setting the pace, while Amazon not only disrupts its own markets but causes other sectors to follow their initiatives
  16. 16. Pie Charts Alll Rights Reserved 16 Pie Chart The Pie Charts suggest the tipping point, when the general public will accept the disrupted future as the new normal, will be around 2041: a generation away. The majority of these disruptions are likely, though many are at an early stage. We can expect more rapid rollout of these disruptions than have ever been witnessed in the past with the winners making billions or trillions of dollars from their innovations or being in the right place at the right time. Now is not the time for complacency or you risk being left behind!
  17. 17. Geographies What is surprising about this chart is the number of countries seemingly in a disruptive state, led by China and India. Geopolitically, and technologically we can expect major power shifts going forward towards Australasia. All Rights Reserved 17
  18. 18. Cities And, again surprisingly, there are very few cities, as yet, influencing future disruption. But this will likely change as countries like Singapore automate their cities and gain significant competitive advantage over less prepared rivals All Rights Reserved 18
  19. 19. Heatmap What’s striking about this chart is the lack of strong disruption signals in any sector or country apart from Construction in the US. But, many countries and sectors have begun this journey with plenty of white space for those wanting to compete but yet to play All Rights Reserved 19
  20. 20. Challenges The most likely disrupted sectors in the short-term will be Manufacturing, Software, retail and Pharmaceuticals. Followed by Tech, Financial Services and Health. But, sudden new disruptors could change the order of likely disruption here. No sector is safe from entrepreneurs with a better business model and product as Amazon continuluosly demonstrates All Rights Reserved 20
  21. 21. Alternative Futures All four alternative futures methods presented, here at a high level, suggest massive disruption is going to change the world in the next 25 years. Entrepreneurs will change existing paradigms in profound ways, many businesses will collapse, myths will be exploded and associated complicated, complex and chaotic change towards very different futures will be very messy. To remain agile and resilient in this VUCA world organizations need to determine their path forward. All Rights Reserved 21 Contact us to develop alternative futures that help you remain resilient and agile into the future. Our digital methods above can deliver robust results in hours rather than the months and years of effort required by traditional consultancy projects VUCA is an acronym used by the American Military. It stands for Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous. Foresight Methods - Donuts
  22. 22. 22 Potential shocks! • Trade war • Oil supply and demand • Military war • Terrorism • Protests • Recession • Pandemic • Natural disaster • Mass migration • Climate change • Water and food shortages
  23. 23. SWOT Most pundits and experts have a very positive view of future disruption, geopolitical threats excepted. All Rights Reserved 23 Strengths | Weaknesses | Opportunities | Threats (To access click the presented Forecasts button and then your selection - subscribers only)
  24. 24. Questions for you to consider Could AI-generated parent coaching help disrupt the strong connection between socioeconomic background and student outcomes? Can Uber disrupt personal ownership or just the taxi market? Can blockchain disrupt social media? “People usually overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.” - Bill Gates Take a least a medium term, not a short-term view when considering these questions All Rights Reserved 24
  25. 25. Potential Responses • Use the findings of this Trend Alert to determine and rank your options and choose how you can respond by examining your Options either on your own publicly, or collaboratively if our private client using our extensive Tools • We can produce equivalent reports to this one on any topic for just US $450 (Plus VAT in Europe). Includes the associated evidence spreadsheet. Market rates are usually at least twenty times this price. • Or, you can subscribe to our service and make these yourself at will and use the forecasts in private, collaborative workshops to develop your strategic responses in hours rather than the weeks and months of traditional foresight projects using these methods Contact us if you would like some free training with these methods, want to order reports or subscribe Why buy a standard, soon out-of-date report at a higher price from elsewhere and fish in the same pool as your rivals? When you can have customized, quality reports that are real-time, low cost, fast to receive and ready made for you to present or respond too.
  26. 26. Sources Athena used the top sources shown here as the ones to create this report and determined which embedded forecasts are included in this Trend Alert. She found 2,372 forecasts in seconds on 24th October 2019 to allow us to publish this report in less than one hour All Rights Reserved 26
  27. 27. Evidence • Search term: “travel*. Use this search term to explore Shaping Tomorrow’s extensive database for more knowledge and wisdom and latest data and information on the topic. • To view the up-to-date list of related forecasts, click here All Rights Reserved 27
  28. 28. Athena I do show duplicates to aid your understanding of themes as well as contradictory forecasts. I may also show near-duplicates. You can speed read past the duplicates and near-duplicates if you wish, though the latter may show additional information. You can use the contradictory, and likely uncertain forecasts she finds to imagine different scenarios. The future is unpredictable, but we can examine the possibilities and choose our preferable future from the choices I present. I’m apolitical. I report forecasts from different viewpoints however distasteful that might be to our own values. However, my news algorithm does not allow me to show fake or hate news. But, i can show you highlighted rumours or controversies that may turn out to come true. Wearing rose-colored glasses is not my purpose; reporting potential futures is. So, I recommend you check my veracity before responding to the extracted forecasts. Just like humans, I can be fallible. Do recognize that you and your associates are biased too. But whereas you tire, make mistakes and only recognize what interests you, I do not. I might miss or misinterpret as you do, but with far less frequency and I'll take uncomfortable truths and alternative ideas in my stride. But, please let us know if you feel my bias can be reduced. We want to do our best for you. And, as with any research, you should check and triangulate my findings for yourself. All Rights Reserved 28 Contact us if you would like some free training with these methods
  29. 29. Keep up to date You can stay up-to-date on this topic or choose from our many automatic reports to determine what’s next in seconds at www.shapingtomorrow.com You can also ask us to set-up private topics for you (clients only) to achieve the same thing as this Trend Alert for your associates or set up email subscriptions (Registration required) on your favorite subjects The Shaping Tomorrow team behind me They don’t bite and don’t hide behind me. Feel free to contact them and you’ll see what i mean. They would be delighted to help you All Rights Reserved 29 Do re-post this free report to your associates and invite them to join Shaping Tomorrow. You will earn substantive commission if they pay for our other services
  30. 30. 30 We hope you will now take positive action on the issues that affect you, your family, your organization and society at large for the benefit of all "If you don't know where you're going, any road will take you there." George Harrison
  31. 31. Do contact us to discover our other full-service strategic foresight capabilities Thanks for reading. Please give us your feedback "Leaders keep their eyes on the horizon, not just on the bottom line." Warren Bennis 31

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Driving forces: Over the next 10 years the world of work is set to rapidly change, with the World Economic Forum predicting that disruptive changes to business models will have a profound impact on the employment landscape in the coming years

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