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Medium term scenario

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China medium term growth scenario (IMF)

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Medium term scenario

  1. 1. Medium Term Scenario April 2012
  2. 2. 2010 2011 2012F 2013FGross domestic product, constant prices Percent change 10.4 9.2 8.2 8.8Inflation, average consumer prices Percent change 3.3 5.4 3.3 3.0Current account balance U.S. dollars 305 201 182 229Unemployment rate Percent of total labor force 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0General government gross debt Percent of GDP 33.5 25.8 22.0 19.4Total investment Percent of GDP 48 48 48 48Gross national savings Percent of GDP 53 51 51 51Volume of imports of goods and services Percent change 20.1 9.5 10.1 10.9Volume of exports of goods and services Percent change 28.4 8.2 6.7 9.9 GDP growth falls in 2012, and returns to near 9% in 2013 Inflation will be under control at 3% Export strength returns as Europe and US demand expand in 2013 Unemployment rate remains at 4% Investment remains structurally high at near 50% of entire economy Savings remain high
  3. 3. China: GDP growth (IMF)12 10.410 9.2 8.8 8.7 8.286420 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
  4. 4. World GDP growth (IMF)6 5.35 4.4 4.14 3.9 3.53210 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-1 World Europe US
  5. 5. Metal Price: All metal and Aluminum ($, 2005=100)250 230 202 206 204200150 126 124 114 11810050 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 Commodity Price AL Price
  6. 6. China: GDP growth VS Industrial Production growth16.00 13.814.00 12.012.00 11.5 10.210.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 GDP IP

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