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GDP quarterly outlook

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Chinese GDP quarterly figures

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GDP quarterly outlook

  1. 1. GDP QUARTERLYOUTLOOKApril 2012
  2. 2. Contents Linear trends show possible paths for quarterly GDP Q12012 growth a surprise while growth needs to be higher to reach 7.5% annual growth Relationship between IP and GDP suggests strong IP may lead to high GDP growth
  3. 3. Linear trends show possible paths forquarterly GDP China: quarterly GDP growth track8.4% 8.35% 8.25%8.2% 8.15% 8.10%8.0% 7.85%7.8% 7.73%7.6% 7.60%7.4% 7.35% 7.35%7.2%7.0% 6.98%6.8% Jan-12 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 g=8.2(IMF) g=7.8 g=7.5(gov target)
  4. 4. Q12012 growth a surprise while growth needs tobe higher to reach 7.5% annual growth Annual growth at 8.2% (IMF) YOYgrowth will have to improve over the next 3 quarters to meet IMF forecast of 8.2% annual growth Annual growth at 7.8% Slower quarterly growth at above 7.3% will see annual growth reach 7.8% Annual growth at 7.5% (gov target) Slower quarterly growth at above 7% will see annual growth reach 7.5%. The current track of slowing will see annual growth at around 7.3%.
  5. 5. IP and GDP relationship suggest strongIP may lead to high GDP growth IP growth has shown strength in the first quarter of 2011 The relationship between IP growth and GDP growth suggest a possible development where for GDP to reach a relatively low number, the IP numbers have to be much lower than they have been. If production, demand and other indicators stay strong, there is a good chance for GDP to end in high territories
  6. 6. China: Industrial production growth China: GDP growth VS Industrial Production growth16.0014.0012.0010.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 GDP IP
  7. 7. Add more…

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