The wichita anti drunk driving campaign-final version

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The wichita anti drunk driving campaign-final version

  1. 1. The Wichita Anti-Drunk Driving Campaign Presented by: Kelly Kavitski & Dave Meholchick
  2. 2. Introduction to the Problem <ul><li>Each year drunk driving is responsible for approximately 24,000 traffic fatalities in the U.S. </li></ul><ul><li>A disproportionate number of traffic fatalities are young people between 15 and 24 years of age. </li></ul><ul><li>Market research has suggested that driving under the influence might be reduced by a mass media communications/advertising program </li></ul><ul><li>On the flip side, past anti-drinking & driving campaigns have shown little success </li></ul>
  3. 3. Wichita Advertising Campaign <ul><li>Between March and August of 1986, an anti-drinking & driving advertising campaign was conducted in the city of Wichita. </li></ul><ul><li>Messages were aired on the TV, radio, and appeared on Billboards & in newspapers </li></ul><ul><li>Successfully funded to create impressive ads (not like past attempts at advertising with donated talent) </li></ul><ul><li>Final version won an OMNI award </li></ul>
  4. 4. Evaluation of the Effectiveness of the Wichita Advertising Campaign <ul><li>Researchers collected before and after data </li></ul><ul><li>In addition to collecting the data in Wichita, researchers also collected data from Omaha, Nebraska </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Omaha was selected because it is arguably similar to Wichita (and was not subject to the advertisements) </li></ul></ul>
  5. 5. Background Demographics on the test & control cities Table 1 contains background demographics on the test and control cities.   Wichita Omaha Total population 411,313 483,053 Percentage 15—24 years 19.2 19.5 Race White 85 87 Black 8 9 Hispanic 4 2 Other 3 2 Percent high school graduates among 75.4 79.9 those 18 years and older Private car ownership 184,641 198,723 Table 1. Demographics for Wichita and Omaha
  6. 6. Can we assume the 2 cities are equal demographically? <ul><li>We performed the following 2-sample hypothesis tests to determine if the 2 cities were equal: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Compared the # of people age 15-24 years old in each city to the total # of people in each city </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Compared the # of white people in each city to the total # of people in each city </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Compared the # of people who own a private car to the total # of people in each city </li></ul></ul>
  7. 7. Results of Demographic 2 Sample Hypothesis Testing <ul><li>Test 1 (Proportion of people between age 15-24) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Result: Reject the null – Wichita has a smaller proportion of people age 15-24 than Omaha </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Test 2 (Proportion of White People) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Result: Reject the null – Wichita has a smaller proportion of white people than Omaha </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Test 3 (Proportion of people who own a private vehicle) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Result: Reject the null – Wichita has a smaller proportion of private car owners than Omaha </li></ul></ul>
  8. 8. Part 2: Additional Data received via (random) Telephone Surveys <ul><li>Surveyed 18-24 year old males in both cities </li></ul><ul><li>Pre-program data collected in Sep.1985 & post-program data was collected in Sep 1986 </li></ul><ul><li>Questions asked: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Have you driven under the influence of 4 or more drinks? (at least once in the previous month) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>How about under the influence of 6 or more drinks? (at least once in the previous month) </li></ul></ul>
  9. 9. Telephone Survey Data Results   Wichita Omaha   Pre-Program Post-Program Pre-Program Post-Program No. of Respondents 205 221 203 157 Drove after 4 drinks 71 61 77 69 Drove after 6 drinks 42 37 45 38 Table 2. Telephone Survey of 18-to-24 year old Males
  10. 10. Can we assume the program was effective by looking at the telephone survey results? <ul><li>We performed the following 2-sample hypothesis tests to determine if the program was effective: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Compared the number of respondents who drove after 4 drinks in Wichita pre-program to the same group of respondents in Omaha </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Compared the number of respondents who drove after 6 drinks in Wichita post-program to the same group of respondents in Omaha </li></ul></ul>
  11. 11. Results of Telephone Survey Effectiveness 2-Sample Hypothesis Testing <ul><li>Test 1 (4 drinks – pre campaign–Omaha & Wichita) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Result: Do not reject the null – Wichita and Omaha had the same proportion of people who drove after 4 drinks </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Test 2 (6 drinks – pre campaign-Omaha & Wichita) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Result: Do not reject the null – Wichita and Omaha had the same proportion of people who drove after 6 drinks </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Test 3 (4 drinks – post campaign-Omaha & Wichita) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Result: Do not reject the null – Wichita and Omaha had the same proportion of people who drove after 4 drinks </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Test 4 (6 drinks – post campaign-Omaha & Wichita) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Result: Do not reject the null – Wichita and Omaha had the same proportion of people who drove after 6 drinks </li></ul></ul>
  12. 12. Total number of fatal or incapacitating accidents     Wichita Omaha Driver Group Accident Type 1985 1986 1985 1986 18-to-24 year old Males Total 68 55 41 40 15-to-24 year old Males & Females Total 117 97 59 57
  13. 13. Can we assume that program was effective? <ul><li>We performed the following 2 sample hypothesis tests to determine if the drinking and driving advertising campaign had any effect on fatal accidents: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Compared the # of fatal accidents in 1985(pre-program) versus the # of fatal accidents in 1986(post-program) in Wichita </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Compared the # of fatal accidents in 1985 versus the # of fatal accidents in 1986 in Omaha </li></ul></ul>
  14. 14. Results of Telephone Survey Effectiveness 2-Sample Hypothesis Testing <ul><li>Test 1 (The proportion of driver accidents in Wichita pre-program versus post program) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Result: Reject the null-There is a significant difference between the total number of fatal accidents that occurred in 1985 vs. 1986 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Test 2 (The proportion of driver accidents in Omaha pre-program versus post program) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Result: Do not reject the null- There is no difference in the total number of fatal accidents that occurred in 1985 vs. 1986 </li></ul></ul>
  15. 15. Conclusion – Was the campaign EFFECTIVE? <ul><li>Our tests have shown that the two cities in comparison are not equal. This may be an unfair comparison. </li></ul><ul><li>The telephone results have shown that people did continue to drink after the program. This may be true or may in fact be skewed slightly because people may have not answered the questions honestly. </li></ul><ul><li>The fatal accidents results show that the drinking and driving advertising campaign worked and that there was a decrease in drunk drivers after the program. But are the results strong enough to invest $25 million dollars into this program? </li></ul>

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