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First year of the basic income: further results

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Ohto Kanninen: First year of the basic income: further results. Experimenting with Income Support in the Netherlands. Presentation at seminar "Finnish Basic Income Experiment – Science meets social security reform" in Kela 4.4.2019.

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First year of the basic income: further results

  1. 1. First year of the basic income: further results Ohto Kanninen 4.4.2019
  2. 2. Summary • No significant effect on employment • A large extent of the treatment group chose not to opt out of active labor market policies • Basic Income lowered participation tax rates by around 12 to 23 percentage points on average
  3. 3. Primary outcome: employment
  4. 4. Mean Differ ence Regression C T - C S.E. p-value Estimate S.E. p- value Primary outcome: days in employment 49.25 0.39 2.34 0.87 1.11 1.97 0.57 R: No earnings limit 77.13 1.52 2.87 0.60 3.01 2.35 0.20
  5. 5. Result by subgroup Estimate S.E. p-value N in treatment group Main specification 1.11 1.97 0.57 2000 Age 25–34 0.38 3.41 0.91 670 35–44 2.61 3.76 0.49 549 45–59 0.68 3.16 0.83 781 Sex Male 1.73 2.73 0.53 1045 Female 0.44 2.85 0.88 955 Education Primary 0.36 3.50 0.92 634 Secondary or higher 1.46 2.39 0.54 1366 Family type With children 7.66 3.82 0.045 532 No children -1.18 2.59 0.65 1156 Adult and children -1.56 4.99 0.76 312 Municipality group I–II -6.10 4.08 0.13 468 III 3.14 2.96 0.29 886 IV 3.54 3.47 0.31 646 Benefit type Labor m. subsidy 1.73 2.11 0.41 1743 Basic unemp. all. -3.06 5.49 0.58 257 Working days in 2016 0 0.71 2.17 0.74 1655 1–366 3.04 4.75 0.52 345
  6. 6. Further outcomes Mean Difference Regression C T - C S.E. p-value Estimate S.E. p-value Earnings (€). 4251 -21.09 172.0 0.90 10.03 148.9 0.95 Of which through entrepreneurship(€) 70.71 39.43 27.24 0.15 41.55 27.19 0.13 Taxable income + BI (€) 11965 1342 140.8 <0.01 1362 123.3 <0.01 Social assistance (€) 1344 -403.1 51.22 <0.01 -429.2 43.75 <0.01 Days on unemployment benefit 252.0 -49.64 3.00 <0.01 -49.84 2.61 <0.01 Days of subsidized work 15.62 0.00 1.25 1.00 -0.29 1.24 0.81 Housing benefit (€) 2509 15.75 57.11 0.78 -31.82 32.16 0.32 Sickness allowance (€) 216.4 -95.69 24.06 <0.01 -99.88 23.75 <0.01
  7. 7. Background variables and treatment
  8. 8. T C Difference T-C p-value Outcome variables in 2016 Days in employment 23.83 24.00 -0.17 0.91 (70.05) (70.85) Days is unemployment 286.0 285.6 0.42 0.86 (106.3) (106.5) Earnings (€) 1864 1896 -31.27 0.75 (4275) (4324) Background characteristics (%) Benefit LM Subsidy 87.15 84.63 2.52 0.00 Female 47.75 47.48 0.27 0.83 Age 0.29 25–34 33.50 35.12 -1.62 35–44 27.45 27.14 0.31 45–59 39.05 37.74 1.31 Education 0.10 Primary 31.70 33.77 -2.07 Secondary 46.65 45.99 0.66 Tertiary 21.65 20.24 1.41 Family type 0.72 Single 39.55 39.51 0.04 Couple 18.25 17.98 0.27 Couple and children 26.60 26.01 0.59 Adult and children 15.60 16.50 -0.90 Foreign language 24.55 25.36 -0.81 0.42 Sickness diagnosis 16.20 16.48 -0.28 0.76 Municipality group 0.99 I 13.85 13.74 0.11 II 9.55 9.47 0.08 III 44.30 44.69 -0.39 IV 32.30 32.10 0.20 N 2000 173 222
  9. 9. 2016 2017 T C Diff. p- value T C Diff. p- value All statements 0.80 0.81 -0.00 0.69 0.79 0.81 -0.02 0.04 Critical statements 0.07 0.07 0.01 0.13 0.11 0.09 0.02 0.00 Statements by the employment office
  10. 10. Earnings 1000 e/month Earnings 2000 e/month Housing benefit Social assistance N C T C T No No 45757 40.6 24.0 53.6 28.3 Yes 1346 68.5 54.0 70.2 45.8 Yes No 53638 52.1 42.1 67.2 44.8 Yes 28000 74.8 67.6 81.4 61.4 All 128741 53.1 41.3 65.5 42.5 Participation Tax rates
  11. 11. Summary • No significant effect on employment • A large extent of the treatment group chose not to opt out of active labor market policies • Basic Income lowered participation tax rates by around 12 to 23 percentage points on average
  12. 12. Thank you!

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