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Regional Peace Poll - Israel-UAE-Bahrain - Konrad Adenauer Stiftung Israel - KEEVOON Global Research - 11 Nov 2020

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Measuring the Attitudes of Citizens in Israel, UAE, Bahrain, Palestinian Authority, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Morocco, United States, and Germany Towards the Israel-UAE-Bahrain Peace Accords
Poll Commissioned by: Konrad Adenauer Foundation Israel Office
Pollster: Mitchell Barak, KEEVOON Global Research

Published in: News & Politics
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Regional Peace Poll - Israel-UAE-Bahrain - Konrad Adenauer Stiftung Israel - KEEVOON Global Research - 11 Nov 2020

  1. 1. A Multi-Country Study Measuring the Attitudes of Citizens in Israel, UAE, Bahrain, Palestinian Authority, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Morocco, United States, and Germany Towards the Israel-UAE-Bahrain Peace Accords Dr. Alexander Brakel, Representative to Israel KONRAD-ADENAUER-STIFTUNG – ISRAEL OFFICE Mitchell Barak KEEVOON Global Research 11 November 2020
  2. 2. Survey Methodology ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH (W. Bank) SAUDI ARABIA QATAR MOROCCO GERMANY USA Sample Size 503 HEB 86 ARB 399 317 404 505 267 499 500 534 Data Collection 18-23 October 18-25 October 18 Oct – 2 Nov 18-29 October 18-24 October 19 Oct – 2 Nov 18-24 October 19-26 October 18-27 October Margin of Error +/- 4.04% 4.91% 5.50% 4.88% 4.36% 6.00% 4.39% 4.38% 4.24% • Representative sample in each country • Quotas for Gender and Age based on population • Data collection via mobile telephone, in-APP • Screener for nationality in Gulf countries
  3. 3. Key Findings I • Iran is not as big a threat as we like to think • UAE and Bahrain are really 2 different countries – Abraham Accords • Israelis like Emiratis and Bahrainis much more than they like us • Minimal support for Abraham Accords among Gulf States • Everybody likes the Palestinians (in the Gulf States) • No “best broker” for Israelis and Palestinians – not even….USA • Lukewarm support for right of Israel to exist, except UAE • Moving US Embassy to Jerusalem diminishes possibility for Peace • Health a greater concern than Finances for most • Strong confidence in Government handling of COVID-19, except Israel • Gulf States probably happy Joe Biden was elected, Israel MUCH less so
  4. 4. Generally, speaking, do you think that things in ________ are going in the RIGHT DIRECTION, or the WRONG DIRECTION? 25 88 69 25 82 40 86 39 33 54 8 9 43 7 32 7 39 59 21 4 22 32 11 28 7 22 8 ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI ARABIA MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA RIGHT DIRECTION WRONG DIRECTION
  5. 5. COUNTRIES Favorable / Unfavorable
  6. 6. Do you have a FAVORABLE or UNFAVORABLE impression of…… CHART SHOWS TOTAL FOR ALL RESPONDENTS (4,014) 39 60 55 65 54 63 55 76 62 47 29 25 22 35 21 27 15 31 ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI ARABIA MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE
  7. 7. Do you have a FAVORABLE or UNFAVORABLE impression of……ISRAEL 76 46 31 33 23 16 28 26 53 20 43 48 56 65 70 59 49 28 4 11 21 11 12 14 13 25 19 ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI ARABIA MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NOT SURE
  8. 8. Do you have a FAVORABLE or UNFAVORABLE impression of……UAE 67 93 84 30 86 64 58 30 35 25 5 8 60 12 29 33 46 37 8 2 8 10 2 7 9 24 28 ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI ARABIA MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NOT SURE
  9. 9. Do you have a FAVORABLE or UNFAVORABLE impression of……BAHRAIN 49 89 86 29 85 60 65 24 26 32 8 5 59 11 20 28 31 26 19 3 9 12 4 20 7 45 48 ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI ARABIA MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NOT SURE
  10. 10. Do you have a FAVORABLE or UNFAVORABLE impression of…… PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY 20 74 70 56 71 73 80 21 28 73 21 13 34 20 19 15 48 42 7 5 17 10 9 8 5 31 30 ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI ARABIA MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NOT SURE
  11. 11. Do you have a FAVORABLE or UNFAVORABLE impression of……SAUDI ARABIA 45 86 83 38 93 54 64 21 28 43 12 10 52 4 38 30 56 52 12 2 7 10 3 8 6 23 20 ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI ARABIA MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NOT SURE
  12. 12. Do you have a FAVORABLE or UNFAVORABLE impression of……MOROCCO 52 82 65 68 79 74 78 32 52 32 13 12 23 13 21 12 38 1616 5 23 9 8 5 10 30 32 ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI ARABIA MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NOT SURE
  13. 13. Do you have a FAVORABLE or UNFAVORABLE impression of……QATAR 45 63 69 66 54 81 91 27 28 39 29 15 25 36 10 5 39 29 16 8 16 9 10 9 4 34 43 ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI ARABIA MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NOT SURE
  14. 14. Do you have a FAVORABLE or UNFAVORABLE impression of……GERMANY 65 89 72 80 86 90 78 68 65 29 7 9 11 9 5 14 23 18 6 4 19 9 5 5 8 9 17 ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI ARABIA MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NOT SURE
  15. 15. Do you have a FAVORABLE or UNFAVORABLE impression of……USA 78 73 62 45 69 70 61 25 74 20 23 25 45 25 26 34 62 21 2 4 13 10 6 4 5 13 5 ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI ARABIA MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NOT SURE
  16. 16. ABRAHAM ACCORDS
  17. 17. Recently, the Abraham Accords, a Peace Agreement between Israel, United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain was signed at the White House. Brokered by the United States, it normalizes relations between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain. Do you SUPPORT or OPPOSE the agreement? 86 69 46 21 35 17 36 57 67 10 22 31 70 48 63 52 18 13 4 9 23 9 17 20 12 25 20 ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI ARABIA MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA SUPPORT OPPOSE NOT SURE
  18. 18. Which areas do you think are most important for relations between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain? (2 Combined Choices = 200%) 51 50 35 23 23 13 5 47 40 32 35 24 16 6 36 38 31 21 25 17 32 36 36 31 38 18 16 25 37 38 30 30 25 15 25 47 42 25 23 25 9 2929 44 31 22 28 16 30 61 49 15 16 29 14 16 56 43 19 20 20 31 11 SEC COOP ME TRADE/COMMERCE TOURISM SCIENCE/TECH REG DEV CULTURE NOT SURE ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI ARABIA MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA
  19. 19. Which areas do you think are most important for relations between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain? (2 Combined Choices = 200%) 51 47 36 36 37 47 29 50 40 38 36 38 42 4 35 32 31 31 30 25 31 23 35 21 38 30 23 22 23 24 25 18 25 25 28 13 16 17 6 15 9 16 5 6 32 25 25 29 30 ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI ARABIA MOROCCO QATAR SEC COOP TRADE TOURISM SCI/TECH REG DEV CULTURE NOT SURE
  20. 20. When thinking the Abraham Accords, who benefits most, Israel, the UAE and Bahrain, or the United States? 35 24 25 57 41 47 34 21 17 20 47 29 10 16 7 24 13 16 25 18 16 14 20 30 18 38 36 ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI ARABIA MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA ISRAEL UAE/BAHRAIN USA
  21. 21. REGIONAL STABILITY
  22. 22. Which country do you think threatens regional stability MOST? 4 17 24 37 33 43 39 9 5 45 27 18 14 25 10 8 12 17 4 12 9 12 7 13 8 13 26 18 8 4 6 3 3 7 9 7 5 3 3 4 2 3 5 9 13 4 7 5 4 7 2 5 11 33 6 5 4 9 4 8 5 6 7 7 2 4 2 3 2 10 7 5 3 3 2 2 1 2 3 2 ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI ARABIA MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA ISRAEL IRAN USA PAL AUTH RUSSIA TURKEY SAUDI ARABIA SYRIA LEBANON
  23. 23. How great a threat to the region do you think IRAN is? 1 – 10 / Chart Shows MEAN (Average) 7.4 6 3.8 5.4 6.8 5.3 4.6 6.2 6.5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI ARABI MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA
  24. 24. How great a threat to the region do you think Iran is? 16 26 42 29 19 28 37 17 16 24 33 11 22 27 21 30 47 43 56 30 14 24 46 22 17 25 35 ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI ARABIA MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA WEAK 1-4 MODERATE 5-7 STRONG 8-10
  25. 25. PALESTINIANS & ISRAELIS ISRAELIS & PALESTINIANS
  26. 26. Do you AGREE or DISAGREE that there should be a Palestinian State? 35 81 72 84 88 90 85 47 45 58 11 6 9 7 2 9 24 22 7 8 22 7 5 8 6 29 33 ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI ARABIA MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA AGREE DISAGREE NOT SURE
  27. 27. If an independent Palestinian State is not an option, which of the following would you support MOST? 17 10 8 8 11 6 12 13 13 26 17 15 26 24 21 29 11 13 9 36 15 9 20 18 16 21 15 24 17 12 10 8 8 16 13 15 24 20 50 47 37 47 27 42 44 ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI ARABIA MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA BINAT STATE W/IL BINAT STATE W/JORDAN IL-PAL FEDERATION PAL UNDER IL - NO CITIZEN NOT SURE
  28. 28. Do you AGREE or DISAGREE that ISRAEL has the right to exist as the “Nation-State of the Jewish People”? 81 61 22 13 24 20 30 46 69 14 28 29 76 63 61 46 18 12 5 11 49 11 13 19 24 36 19 ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI ARABIA MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA AGREE DISAGREE NOT SURE
  29. 29. Do you AGREE or DISAGREE that ISRAEL has the “Right to Exist”? 84 59 27 23 24 26 39 59 77 12 33 52 62 62 56 57 24 12 4 8 21 15 14 18 4 17 11 ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI ARABIA MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA AGREE DISAGREE NOT SURE
  30. 30. Nation State of the Jewish People VS. Right to Exist 81 61 22 13 24 20 30 46 69 84 59 27 23 24 26 39 59 77 ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI ARABIA MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA NATION STATE RIGHT TO EXIST
  31. 31. Of the following which do you think can most effectively broker a deal between Israelis and Palestinians? 34 23 13 9 13 12 16 7 43 8 18 11 8 15 16 10 8 5 6 18 5 7 8 9 9 17 15 12 11 9 7 21 3 10 3 4 5 7 3 12 6 6 4 16 4 5 4 3 5 3 6 6 11 3 7 2 4 8 4 3 10 4 44 4 3 6 3 3 4 4 2 ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI ARABIA MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA USA ARAB LEAGUE UNITED NATIONS SAUDI ARABIA EUROPEAN UNION GERMANY JORDAN RUSSIA
  32. 32. In 2018 the United States moved their Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem; do you think it IMPROVES or DIMINISHES the chances for Peace in the region? 44 52 24 9 23 14 29 19 46 33 33 28 60 53 54 42 41 28 19 7 10 16 12 17 12 18 10 4 8 38 15 12 15 17 22 16 ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI ARABIA MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA IMPROVES DIMINISHES NEITHER NOT SURE
  33. 33. BIDEN & TRUMP
  34. 34. Do you have a FAVORABLE or UNFAVORABLE impression of JOE BIDEN 41 69 37 28 42 45 62 49 54 38 18 19 41 36 23 23 26 39 21 13 44 31 22 32 15 25 7 ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI ARABIA MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NOT SURE
  35. 35. Do you have a FAVORABLE or UNFAVORABLE impression of DONALD TRUMP 58 51 28 14 38 19 38 15 47 37 41 33 69 44 61 53 73 46 5 8 39 17 18 20 9 12 7 ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI ARABIA MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NOT SURE
  36. 36. FAVORABLE JOE BIDEN vs. DONALD TRUMP 41 69 37 28 42 45 62 49 54 58 51 28 14 38 19 38 15 47 ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI ARABIA MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA BIDEN TRUMP
  37. 37. Which candidate do you think will be more successful in the Middle East when it comes to STABILITY and PEACE? 19 47 25 27 22 37 56 54 43 47 30 14 11 23 6 16 12 40 ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI ARABIA MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA BIDEN TRUMP
  38. 38. COVID-19
  39. 39. COVID-19: While both are critical, looking towards the future, are you and your family more concerned about your personal… HEALTH or FINANCES 48 52 65 50 61 45 60 66 66 52 48 35 50 39 55 40 34 34 ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI ARABIA MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA HEALTH FINANCES
  40. 40. COVID-19: While both are critical, looking towards the future, are you and your family more concerned about your personal… HEALTH or FINANCES 46 48 56 46 48 50 66 66 54 52 44 54 52 50 34 34 ISRAEL PAL AUTH GERMANY USA ISRAEL PAL AUTH GERMANY USA HEALTH FINANCES MAY 2020 NOVEMBER 2020
  41. 41. Do you SUPPORT or OPPOSE the way NETANYAHU / ABBAS / MERKEL / TRUMP / YOUR GOVERNMENT is handling the Coronavirus outbreak and crisis? 38 88 76 53 86 49 84 58 47 55 8 11 33 9 42 10 29 48 ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI ARABIA MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA SUPPORT OPPOSE
  42. 42. Do you SUPPORT or OPPOSE the way NETANYAHU / ABBAS / MERKEL / TRUMP is handling the Coronavirus outbreak and crisis? 67 59 55 45 38 53 58 47 24 29 29 36 55 33 29 48 ISRAEL PAL AUTH GERMANY USA ISRAEL PAL AUTH GERMANY USA SUPPORT OPPOSE MAY 2020 NOVEMBER 2020
  43. 43. Key Findings - Conclusion • Iran is not as big a threat as we like to think • UAE and Bahrain are really 2 different countries – Abraham Accords • Israelis like Emiratis and Bahrainis much more than they like us • Minimal support for Abraham Accords among Gulf States • Everybody likes the Palestinians (in the Gulf States) • No “best broker” for Israelis and Palestinians – not even….USA • Lukewarm support for right of Israel to exist, except UAE • Moving US Embassy to Jerusalem diminishes possibility for Peace • Health a greater concern than Finances for most • Strong confidence in Government handling of COVID-19, except Israel • Gulf States probably happy Joe Biden was elected, Israel MUCH less so
  44. 44. For more information….. Dr. Alexander Brakel Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung Jerusalem, Israel Tel: +972-2-567-1830 Alexander.Brakel@kas.de www.kas.de/israel Mitchell Barak KEEVOON Global Research Jerusalem, Israel Tel: +972-52-404-6600 mitchell@keevoon.com www.keevoon.com

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