Decsion making


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Decsion making

  1. 1. DECISION MAKING Ranjan P. Joshi 9423574106
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  4. 4. Why Decision Making• For solving problems• For choosing right answers• For resolving confusion( or conflict?)• For satisfaction• A routine requirement – Professional or otherwise• Nothing is more difficult and therefore more precious than to be able to decide. Ranjan P. Joshi 9423574106
  5. 5. How Decision Making Ranjan P. Joshi 9423574106
  6. 6. What Is Decision Making• Decision – Making up our mind. – Making a choice among available alternatives.• Decision Making – A process of identifying problems and opportunities and resolving them. – The process of examining your options, comparing them and choosing a course of action.• Involves efforts before and after the actual choice. Ranjan P. Joshi 9423574106
  7. 7. Factors Influencing• Perception• Priority• Acceptability• Risk• Resources• The inability to make a decision has often been passed off as a patience Ranjan P. Joshi 9423574106
  8. 8. Factors Influencing• Goals• Values• Demands• Styles• Judgment• When you have to make a choice and don’t make it, that is in itself is a choice. Ranjan P. Joshi 9423574106
  9. 9. 6 C’s• Construct• Compile• Collect• Compare• Consider• Commit• Life is the sum of all your choices Ranjan P. Joshi 9423574106
  10. 10. 6 C’s• Construct – A clear picture of what must be decided• Compile – List of requirements that must be met• Collect – Information on alternatives that meet the requirements Ranjan P. Joshi 9423574106
  11. 11. 6 C’s• Compare – The alternatives that meet the requirements.• Consider – What might go wrong of each factor• Commit – To a decision and follow through it• Good decisions come from experience and experience comes from bad decisions. Ranjan P. Joshi 9423574106
  12. 12. Levels Of Decision Ranjan P. Joshi 9423574106
  13. 13. Types Of Decisions• Programmed – Routine decisions • Choices made in response to relatively well defined common problems and alternatives • Rules and procedures make it easy• Some persons are very decisive when it comes to avoiding. Ranjan P. Joshi 9423574106
  14. 14. Types Of Decisions• Non programmed – Made in response to situations that are • Unique, • Poorly defined and largely unconstructed, • Have significant consequences, • Uncertainty is great, • Decisions are complex, • Involve strategic thinking – Indecision becomes decision with time. Ranjan P. Joshi 9423574106
  15. 15. Types Of Decisions• Adaptive decisions – Choices made in response to combination of moderately unusual problems and alternative solutions• Innovative decisions – Decisions based on discover, identification and diagnosis of unusual and ambiguous problems. Ranjan P. Joshi 9423574106
  16. 16. Types Of Decisions Ranjan P. Joshi 9423574106
  17. 17. Decision Making Conditions• Certainty• Risk• Uncertainty• Ambiguity• Corporate culture Ranjan P. Joshi 9423574106
  18. 18. ProcessRanjan P. Joshi 9423574106
  19. 19. Process Define and Follow up and digest the control problemImplementing Set goals the solution Evaluate alternative Search for solutions and alternative select the solutions best Ranjan P. Joshi 9423574106
  20. 20. Barriers• Escalation of commitment• Technology• Psychological biases• Illusion of control Ranjan P. Joshi 9423574106
  21. 21. Inherent Personal Traps• Trying too hard to play it safe• Letting fears and biases hit your thinking and analysis• Getting lost in the minimum minutia can cause trouble• Craving for unanimous approval• Trying to make decisions which are outside realm of authority Ranjan P. Joshi 9423574106
  22. 22. Inherent System Traps• Willing to begin with too little, inaccurate or wrong information• Overlook viable alternatives or waste time considering alternatives which have no realistic prospects• Not following the six C’s• Failure to clearly define the results you expect to achieve• Worst of all failure to reach a decision Ranjan P. Joshi 9423574106
  23. 23. Styles• Using knowledge, skills and experience• Applying logic to reach conclusions• Analysing issues to understand the whole picture• Coming to conclusions by hunch• Being led by emotion and sensitivity• Using imagination to create new ideas Ranjan P. Joshi 9423574106
  24. 24. Strategies• Engage in constructive conflict / Brain storming• Nominal group technique• Delphi technique Ranjan P. Joshi 9423574106
  25. 25. Ranjan P. Joshi 9423574106
  26. 26. Always Remember• No decision can be made any longer without taking into account not only world as it is but the world as it will be• Decision making is the cognitive process leading to the selection of course of action among available and suitable alternatives• Every decision making process produces a final choice. It can be action or an opinion. Ranjan P. Joshi 9423574106
  27. 27. Always Remember• It begins when we used to do something but we do not know what. Therefore decision making is a reasoning process which can be rational and can be based on explicit assumptions or tacit assumptions. Ranjan P. Joshi 9423574106
  28. 28. 6 Hats• To use Six Thinking Hats to improve the quality of your decision-making, look at the decision "wearing" each of the thinking hats in turn.• Each "Thinking Hat" is a different style of thinking. These are explained below: Ranjan P. Joshi 9423574106
  29. 29. White HatWith this thinking hat, you focus on the dataavailable. Look at the information you have,and see what you can learn from it. Look forgaps in your knowledge, and either try to fillthem or take account of them.This is where you analyze past trends, and tryto extrapolate from historical data. Ranjan P. Joshi 9423574106
  30. 30. Red HatWearing the red hat, you look at the decisionusing intuition, gut reaction, and emotion.Also try to think how other people will reactemotionally, and try to understand theintuitive responses of people who do not fullyknow your reasoning. Ranjan P. Joshi 9423574106
  31. 31. Black HatWhen using black hat thinking, look at thingspessimistically, cautiously and defensively. Tryto see why ideas and approaches might notwork. This is important because it highlightsthe weak points in a plan or course of action.It allows you to eliminate them, alter yourapproach, or prepare contingency plans tocounter problems that arise. Ranjan P. Joshi 9423574106
  32. 32. Black Hat• Black Hat thinking helps to make your plans tougher and more resilient. It can also help you to spot fatal flaws and risks before you embark on a course of action. Black Hat thinking is one of the real benefits of this technique, as many successful people get so used to thinking positively that often they cannot see problems in advance, leaving them under-prepared for difficulties. Ranjan P. Joshi 9423574106
  33. 33. Yellow Hat:The yellow hat helps you to think positively. Itis the optimistic viewpoint that helps you tosee all the benefits of the decision and thevalue in it, and spot the opportunities thatarise from it. Yellow Hat thinking helps you tokeep going when everything looks gloomy anddifficult. Ranjan P. Joshi 9423574106
  34. 34. Green HatThe Green Hat stands for creativity. This iswhere you can develop creative solutions to aproblem. It is a freewheeling way of thinking,in which there is little criticism of ideas. Awhole range of creativity tools can help youhere. Ranjan P. Joshi 9423574106
  35. 35. Blue HatThe Blue Hat stands for process control. This isthe hat worn by people chairing meetings.When running into difficulties because ideasare running dry, they may direct activity intoGreen Hat thinking. When contingency plansare needed, they will ask for Black Hatthinking, and so on. Ranjan P. Joshi 9423574106
  36. 36. THANK YOU Ranjan P. Joshi 9423574106