Epidemiological Transition

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Epidemiological Transition

  1. 1. The Epidemiologic Transition 1
  2. 2. Morbidity  Sickness  Case fatality rate  Classifications  Communicable (Infectious)  Degenerative (Non-communicable)  Epidemiologic Transition 2
  3. 3. Epidemiologic Transition  Reductions in overall mortality levels  The role of communicable or degenerative diseases in overall death rates  Accompanied by a significant rise in the average life expectancy of those involved 3
  4. 4. The Epidemiologic Transition Dynamics STAGE: 1 2 Overlap of stages 3 Overlap of stages 4 Merging with… 5 Future stages Pestilence and Receding Epidemics Degenerative, Declining CVD Aspired quality Famine stress & mortality, of life with Health transition man-made ageing & persistent Determinants of Changing patterns of: diseases emerging inequalities disease and Health survival diseases QUALITY OF LIFE FOR ALL mortality change disease, & mortality Continued dynamic change Fertility: With chronicity plus Determinants of High then declines emerging diseases Fertility decline Age structure: According to transition model Young, then older Decline in CVDs: actual (West) DEMOGRAPHIC or potential non-western models TRANSITION & Aging Lifestyle and education Health care Technical Environmental transition transition transition factors Flow of the Transition can be disrupted or reversed under crises or may accelerate 4 under strikingly favorable conditions. Source:World Health Statistics Quarterly, 51(No.2/3),1998
  5. 5. Epidemiologic Transition  Three basic models  Classic or Western model  Western societies  The last 200 years  Accelerated model  Japan, Eastern Europe, & the Soviet Union  Delayed model  Most LDCs  Since the end of WWII  Hybristic stage  Personal behavior and lifestyle 5
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  8. 8. Causes of Death MDCs LDCs  Age 15 to 44  Age 15 to 44  Accidents  Accidents  Cancer  Coronary Heart Disease  Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) (CHD)  Cancer  Age 45 -54  Age 45 -54  Coronary Heart Disease  Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) (CHD)  Cancer  Cancer  Accidents  Accidents 8
  9. 9. Epidemiologic Transition  Causes of death based on immediacy  Proximate  Immediate  Cancer  Murder  Non-proximate  Not immediate  Chemical pollution  Smoking  Crime rate of area of residence  Obesity 9
  10. 10. Infectious and Parasitic Diseases  Human settlements provided a good environment for infectious disease  Denser populations  Poor sanitation  Trade between settlements  19th and 20th Centuries – lowered incidence of infectious diseases  Improvements in  Housing  Sanitation  Nutrition  Public health interventions 10
  11. 11. Infectious and Parasitic Diseases  Main causes of death  TB  Bronchitis  Pneumonia  Influenza  Measles  1950s  Effects of advances in medical technology on mortality could be seen 11
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  14. 14. Re-emergence of Infectious and Parasitic Diseases (IPDs)  Ebola  Multi-drug resistant TB  Malaria  Meningitis  New forms of cholera 14
  15. 15. Re-emergence of Infectious and Parasitic Diseases (IPDs)  Reasons for re-emergence  Change to the natural environment  Misuse of antibiotics  Agricultural practices and their effects on the environment  Population movement  Breakdown in provision of public health  Civil strife 15

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