Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.
The Sea Level Projections of USACE EC 1165-2-211 in Context<br />Kris Esterson & Sergey Gorlachev<br />Everglades Project ...
Overview of Presentation<br />How are SLR projections are developed using  USACE guidance (EC 1165-2-211)?<br />EC project...
Other projections in use in the region
Related climate change effects
Role in decision support</li></li></ul><li>How are the projections developed?<br />
Naples Tide Station Record<br />Record exceeds 40yr minimum<br />
High Rate Contribution (standard worldwide) <br />Intermediate Rate Contribution (standard worldwide) <br />
EC’s projections connected to orthometric and tidaldatums<br />
latest developments in the scientific literature<br />
Responding to Changes in Sea Level: Engineering Implications<br />The source of the EC’s <br />High and Intermediate Curve...
Sea Level Projections from the Literature<br /> From Rahmstorf (2010) <br />1.43m<br />0.18m<br />USACE <br />EC 1165-2-21...
Other Projection Methodologies<br />
SLR Projections & Planning Standards for South Florida<br />6 ft<br />?<br />>3-5’ for ~2100 (Miami-Dade., 2009)<br />5 ft...
Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenarios<br />
Typical SLR Impact Assessment<br />Drivers<br />Stressors<br />Impacts<br />Sea Level Rise<br />Impacts to Natural and Bui...
Exploring Causation<br />Drivers<br />Stressors<br />Impacts<br />Sea Level Rise<br />Impacts to Natural and Built Environ...
What GHG emissions scenario would produce this SLR?<br />
Actual Emissions vs IPCC SRES Scenarios<br />EC “High” SLR Projection<br />EC “Intermediate”<br />EC “Historic”<br />Sourc...
Related Effects of Climate Change <br />
What other climate change effects are related to this SLR scenario?<br />
What Climate Effects are Associated with a “High” SLR Scenario?<br />Drivers<br />Stressors<br />Impacts<br />Sea Level Ri...
Utility and limitations in Decision Support<br />
EC’s Projections & Decision Support<br />Scenarios- End of academic process and start of decision support.<br />Scenarios-...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

The Sea Level Projections Of USACE EC 1165-2-211 GEER 2010

709 views

Published on

Sea level rise projections of USACE EC 1165-2-211 in greater context.

  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

The Sea Level Projections Of USACE EC 1165-2-211 GEER 2010

  1. 1. The Sea Level Projections of USACE EC 1165-2-211 in Context<br />Kris Esterson & Sergey Gorlachev<br />Everglades Project Joint Venture<br />GEER 2010Greater Everglades Ecosystem Restoration<br />The Greater Everglades: A Living Laboratory of Change<br />July 14, 2010<br />
  2. 2.
  3. 3. Overview of Presentation<br />How are SLR projections are developed using USACE guidance (EC 1165-2-211)?<br />EC projections in the context of:<br /><ul><li>Latest scientific literature on sea level rise
  4. 4. Other projections in use in the region
  5. 5. Related climate change effects
  6. 6. Role in decision support</li></li></ul><li>How are the projections developed?<br />
  7. 7. Naples Tide Station Record<br />Record exceeds 40yr minimum<br />
  8. 8.
  9. 9. High Rate Contribution (standard worldwide) <br />Intermediate Rate Contribution (standard worldwide) <br />
  10. 10.
  11. 11. EC’s projections connected to orthometric and tidaldatums<br />
  12. 12. latest developments in the scientific literature<br />
  13. 13. Responding to Changes in Sea Level: Engineering Implications<br />The source of the EC’s <br />High and Intermediate Curves<br />NRC, 1987<br />
  14. 14. Sea Level Projections from the Literature<br /> From Rahmstorf (2010) <br />1.43m<br />0.18m<br />USACE <br />EC 1165-2-211<br />For Naples, FL<br />
  15. 15. Other Projection Methodologies<br />
  16. 16. SLR Projections & Planning Standards for South Florida<br />6 ft<br />?<br />>3-5’ for ~2100 (Miami-Dade., 2009)<br />5 ft<br />SFRPC 10% Worst Case<br />4 ft<br />EC 1165-2-211 High<br />?<br />NRC 2nd Biennial Review (2008) “not much more than 3 feet”<br />3 ft<br />?<br />SFRPC 50% Moderate Case<br />>1.5’ for ~2059 (Miami-Dade., 2009)<br />EC 1165-2-211 Intermediate<br />2 ft<br />1.7’ by 2100 (CGM 16, 2004)<br />1.09’ (34cm) for 2100 (Yellow Book, 1999)<br />SFRPC 90% Least Case<br />2.1” to 1’ for 2030 (Broward Co., 2009)<br />1 ft<br />EC 1165-2-211 Historic<br />0.8’ by 2050 (CGM 16, 2004)<br />0.5’ SFWMD Sensitivity Test (Trimble, 1998)<br />0.48’ (15cm) for 2050 (Yellow Book, 1999)<br />0 ft<br />2050<br />2100<br />2030<br />2000<br />
  17. 17.
  18. 18. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenarios<br />
  19. 19. Typical SLR Impact Assessment<br />Drivers<br />Stressors<br />Impacts<br />Sea Level Rise<br />Impacts to Natural and Built Environments<br />Increased Global Temperature<br />Greenhouse Gas Emissions<br />Hurricane Intensity<br />Precipitation Change<br />Ocean Acidification<br />CO2<br />
  20. 20. Exploring Causation<br />Drivers<br />Stressors<br />Impacts<br />Sea Level Rise<br />Impacts to Natural and Built Environments<br />Increased Global Temperature<br />Greenhouse Gas Emissions<br />Hurricane Intensity<br />Precipitation Change<br />Ocean Acidification<br />CO2<br />
  21. 21. What GHG emissions scenario would produce this SLR?<br />
  22. 22. Actual Emissions vs IPCC SRES Scenarios<br />EC “High” SLR Projection<br />EC “Intermediate”<br />EC “Historic”<br />Source: Global Carbon Project<br />Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS, updated; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; International Monetary Fund 2009<br />
  23. 23. Related Effects of Climate Change <br />
  24. 24. What other climate change effects are related to this SLR scenario?<br />
  25. 25. What Climate Effects are Associated with a “High” SLR Scenario?<br />Drivers<br />Stressors<br />Impacts<br />Sea Level Rise<br />Impacts to Natural and Built Environments<br />Increased Global Temperature<br />Greenhouse Gas Emissions<br />Hurricane Intensity<br />Precipitation Change<br />Ocean Acidification<br />CO2<br />Accelerated SLR cannot occur in a vacuum<br />
  26. 26. Utility and limitations in Decision Support<br />
  27. 27. EC’s Projections & Decision Support<br />Scenarios- End of academic process and start of decision support.<br />Scenarios- Three scenarios with equal chance of occurrence.<br />Not probabilistic- No “most likely” projection. <br />Not predictions/forecasts- They bound rather than hide uncertainty. Multiple futures rather than single line forecasts. <br />No information on “surprises”- Smooth projections don’t describe potential surprises such as leaps in the rate of rise<br />
  28. 28. EC’s Projections & Decision Support<br />Not probabilistic- Makes traditional risk assessment unclear. Calculation of traditional risk requires probabilities.<br />Not predictions/forecasts- Makes cost-benefit analysis difficult as benefits may vary depending on SLR scenario. Complicates engineering design.<br />No information on “surprises”- Management strategies (AM, SBP) based on SLR projections may not fully incorporate the range of potential outcomes.<br />
  29. 29. Questions?<br />

×