TOURISM DEVELOPMENTS: The future just isn’t the same anymore…<br />I see…<br />Uhhh…<br />Kurt Ackermann<br />Getaway Trav...
SMART PHONES ON(BUT SILENT)<br />Conference Hashtag:<br />#GT&TC2011<br />@kurt_a<br />
Once upon a time back in 2010…<br />
Everyone knows what happens to a World Cup host…<br />
The future<br />Nightmarish landscape - “Let’s get real” the fantasy is over… (Clip from The Matrix)<br />
The future<br />Nightmarish landscape - “Let’s get real” the fantasy is over… (Clip from The Matrix)<br />
The future<br />Nightmarish landscape - “Let’s get real” the fantasy is over… (Clip from The Matrix)<br />
circa-2012<br />Future Tourism Economy<br />(pessimist view)<br />
The future<br />Nightmarish landscape - “Let’s get real” the fantasy is over… (Clip from The Matrix)<br />Aristocratic eli...
OK, let’s get serious…<br />
“What ARE <br />the key developments affecting the future of South Africa’s tourism industry?”<br />
First, a brief pause to get defensive…<br />
1400+ industries<br />No ‘Tourism’ <br />per se<br />
‘Industry’<br />vs.<br />‘Economy’<br />Source: Gauteng Tourism Theme Paper, 2009<br />
Overcapacity!<br />Undercapacity!<br />Municipalities<br />Bad marketing!<br />0<br />No Domestic<br />Focus!<br />Poor Se...
(2010 IMNSHO)<br />
Brand improvement<br />
2010 a technical and football success<br />“FIFA President, SeppBlatter, has given South Africa 9 out of 10 for organising...
“I am shocked, shocked…”<br />
“Loss of permanent visitors”<br />“The sobering reality of mega-events is that nearly all host cities and nations learn a ...
SINCE 2010<br />
Jozi, Cape Town IRT bus services<br />
High-speed <br />rail<br />Photo: urbanjoburg<br />
MPUMALANGA<br />…the implosion continues<br /><br />TSHWANE<br />…getting it together<br /><br />BUFFALO CITY<br />?!?<b...
400+<br />2011 est.<br /> 15 July<br />218<br />Rhino poaching<br /><br /> 31 May<br />173<br />Source: SAN Parks data ...
TODAY<br />
Bookings Down<br />Over-capacity<br />‘Oh *(@#!’<br />Too Expensive<br />Long Haul is Dead<br />Tourism <br />Stats<br />
“A rising tide lifts all boats”<br />SA Economic Output Doubled<br />South Africa’s GDP<br />
World GDP Growth<br />
Tourism Core Market GDP Growth<br />
Your Traditional Customer<br />
The Pain is Real.<br />Photo: flickr.com/allforblue<br />
Key Facts<br /><ul><li>Overseas and domestic travel down
African land travel volume up
Total spend up
Weak job creation
Government spending up
Innovation required to stay competitive</li></li></ul><li>Key Actions<br /><ul><li>R35bn government investment in tourism ...
Resolution of land ownership obstacles by 2012
Minimum work standards by 2012
Domestic tourism focus
5 new African offices
More regional programmes (TFCAs)
Emphasize rural & less visited areas
TBCSA or similar at provincial and city levels
National Convention Bureau
PCO accreditation
National VICs using national database
Grading extensions beyond accommodation
Government procurement from BEE-compliant service providers only</li></li></ul><li>Then<br />Now<br />
Now<br />Then<br />
Companies Act 71 of 2008<br />
Electricity Tariff Increase<br />Electricity price doubles twice in 10 years<br />90%<br />77%<br />
BRIC + S<br />Photo: China News<br />
Lion’s share of GDP growth to 2014<br />Not driven by consumer spending<br />Bigger economies than G7 by 2050<br />
National Standard for Responsible Tourism<br />
Cape Town Declaration<br />RESPONSIBLE TOURISM IN DESTINATIONS<br />Shaping sustainable spaces into better places<br />We,...
HEADED OUR WAY<br />
Tourism BEE Charter targets ratchet up in 2013<br />
Carbon-constrained future<br />
?<br />
UNCERTAINTY:<br />Risk? or Opportunity?<br />
LONGER TERM FACTORS<br />
City-regions as gateways<br />
Local Travel. <br />Slow Travel.<br />
LOHAS<br />
“The Good Life”<br />
OMG<br />
+2 billion people in next 40 years…<br />
Consider <br />2001 – 2011…<br />
$73.44/bbl<br />2011<br />2.5x increase<br />in real dollar terms<br />$29.23/bbl<br />2001<br />
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The future isn't what it used to be: Tourism Developments in South Africa Post 2010

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An overview of the key developments affecting the future of South Africa's Tourism Industry. Presented by Kurt Ackermann at the Getaway Travel & Tourism Conference on 1 September 2011 in Johannesburg, South Africa.

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The future isn't what it used to be: Tourism Developments in South Africa Post 2010

  1. 1. TOURISM DEVELOPMENTS: The future just isn’t the same anymore…<br />I see…<br />Uhhh…<br />Kurt Ackermann<br />Getaway Travel & Tourism Conference 1 September 2011 Ozinsky & Ackermann<br />
  2. 2. SMART PHONES ON(BUT SILENT)<br />Conference Hashtag:<br />#GT&TC2011<br />@kurt_a<br />
  3. 3. Once upon a time back in 2010…<br />
  4. 4.
  5. 5. Everyone knows what happens to a World Cup host…<br />
  6. 6. The future<br />Nightmarish landscape - “Let’s get real” the fantasy is over… (Clip from The Matrix)<br />
  7. 7. The future<br />Nightmarish landscape - “Let’s get real” the fantasy is over… (Clip from The Matrix)<br />
  8. 8. The future<br />Nightmarish landscape - “Let’s get real” the fantasy is over… (Clip from The Matrix)<br />
  9. 9. circa-2012<br />Future Tourism Economy<br />(pessimist view)<br />
  10. 10. The future<br />Nightmarish landscape - “Let’s get real” the fantasy is over… (Clip from The Matrix)<br />Aristocratic elite travellers<br />Tourism industry as anarcho-syndicalist commune<br />(Lovely muck)<br />Future Tourism Economy<br />(optimist view)<br />Nostalgic<br />Python-ic<br />
  11. 11. OK, let’s get serious…<br />
  12. 12. “What ARE <br />the key developments affecting the future of South Africa’s tourism industry?”<br />
  13. 13. First, a brief pause to get defensive…<br />
  14. 14. 1400+ industries<br />No ‘Tourism’ <br />per se<br />
  15. 15. ‘Industry’<br />vs.<br />‘Economy’<br />Source: Gauteng Tourism Theme Paper, 2009<br />
  16. 16.
  17. 17. Overcapacity!<br />Undercapacity!<br />Municipalities<br />Bad marketing!<br />0<br />No Domestic<br />Focus!<br />Poor Service Quality!<br />SMMEs<br />Private Sector<br />National Department<br />SA Tourism<br />DMOs<br />0<br />Global Recession!<br />0<br />Airline Fees!<br />
  18. 18. (2010 IMNSHO)<br />
  19. 19. Brand improvement<br />
  20. 20. 2010 a technical and football success<br />“FIFA President, SeppBlatter, has given South Africa 9 out of 10 for organising a successful World Cup.” (12 July 2010)<br />
  21. 21.
  22. 22. “I am shocked, shocked…”<br />
  23. 23. “Loss of permanent visitors”<br />“The sobering reality of mega-events is that nearly all host cities and nations learn a hard lesson: they over-estimate the benefits beforehand and get stuck with under-utilised infrastructure afterwards. They face an extended period of anti-climax…”<br />October 2007<br />
  24. 24. SINCE 2010<br />
  25. 25. Jozi, Cape Town IRT bus services<br />
  26. 26. High-speed <br />rail<br />Photo: urbanjoburg<br />
  27. 27. MPUMALANGA<br />…the implosion continues<br /><br />TSHWANE<br />…getting it together<br /><br />BUFFALO CITY<br />?!?<br />
  28. 28. 400+<br />2011 est.<br /> 15 July<br />218<br />Rhino poaching<br /><br /> 31 May<br />173<br />Source: SAN Parks data via stoprhinopoaching.com<br />
  29. 29. TODAY<br />
  30. 30. Bookings Down<br />Over-capacity<br />‘Oh *(@#!’<br />Too Expensive<br />Long Haul is Dead<br />Tourism <br />Stats<br />
  31. 31. “A rising tide lifts all boats”<br />SA Economic Output Doubled<br />South Africa’s GDP<br />
  32. 32. World GDP Growth<br />
  33. 33. Tourism Core Market GDP Growth<br />
  34. 34. Your Traditional Customer<br />
  35. 35.
  36. 36. The Pain is Real.<br />Photo: flickr.com/allforblue<br />
  37. 37.
  38. 38. Key Facts<br /><ul><li>Overseas and domestic travel down
  39. 39. African land travel volume up
  40. 40. Total spend up
  41. 41. Weak job creation
  42. 42. Government spending up
  43. 43. Innovation required to stay competitive</li></li></ul><li>Key Actions<br /><ul><li>R35bn government investment in tourism infrastructure by 2020
  44. 44. Resolution of land ownership obstacles by 2012
  45. 45. Minimum work standards by 2012
  46. 46. Domestic tourism focus
  47. 47. 5 new African offices
  48. 48. More regional programmes (TFCAs)
  49. 49. Emphasize rural & less visited areas
  50. 50. TBCSA or similar at provincial and city levels
  51. 51. National Convention Bureau
  52. 52. PCO accreditation
  53. 53. National VICs using national database
  54. 54. Grading extensions beyond accommodation
  55. 55. Government procurement from BEE-compliant service providers only</li></li></ul><li>Then<br />Now<br />
  56. 56. Now<br />Then<br />
  57. 57.
  58. 58. Companies Act 71 of 2008<br />
  59. 59. Electricity Tariff Increase<br />Electricity price doubles twice in 10 years<br />90%<br />77%<br />
  60. 60. BRIC + S<br />Photo: China News<br />
  61. 61. Lion’s share of GDP growth to 2014<br />Not driven by consumer spending<br />Bigger economies than G7 by 2050<br />
  62. 62. National Standard for Responsible Tourism<br />
  63. 63. Cape Town Declaration<br />RESPONSIBLE TOURISM IN DESTINATIONS<br />Shaping sustainable spaces into better places<br />We, representatives of inbound and outbound tour operators, emerging entrepreneurs in the tourism industry, national parks, provincial conservation authorities, all spheres of government, tourism professionals, tourism authorities, NGOs and hotel groups and other tourism stakeholders, from 20 countries in Africa, North and South America, Europe and Asia; having come together in Cape Town to consider the issue of Responsible Tourism in Destinations have agreed this declaration…<br />2002<br />2001<br />1996<br />High<br />Expectations<br />2004<br />2006<br />2008<br />2009<br />2011<br />2011<br />2010<br />Calabash Tours (PE): Overall Winner 2004<br />Calabash Tours (PE): Best for Poverty Reduction 2004<br />Dyer Island Cruises: Best In a Marine Environment 2006<br /> – Highly Commended<br />Voluntours: Best Volunteering Organisation 2008<br />- Highly Commended<br />Stormsriver Adventures: Best for Poverty Reduction 2008<br />- Highly Commended<br />Great Plains Conservation: Best for Conservation of Wildlife and Habitats 2009<br />2011<br />Cape Town: Best Destination 2009<br />IOC Sport and Environment Award 2011<br />KZN: Best Destination 2011 - Longlisted<br />SANS 1162:2011<br />National Standard for Responsible Tourism<br />
  64. 64. HEADED OUR WAY<br />
  65. 65. Tourism BEE Charter targets ratchet up in 2013<br />
  66. 66. Carbon-constrained future<br />
  67. 67. ?<br />
  68. 68. UNCERTAINTY:<br />Risk? or Opportunity?<br />
  69. 69. LONGER TERM FACTORS<br />
  70. 70. City-regions as gateways<br />
  71. 71. Local Travel. <br />Slow Travel.<br />
  72. 72.
  73. 73. LOHAS<br />
  74. 74. “The Good Life”<br />
  75. 75. OMG<br />
  76. 76. +2 billion people in next 40 years…<br />
  77. 77. Consider <br />2001 – 2011…<br />
  78. 78.
  79. 79. $73.44/bbl<br />2011<br />2.5x increase<br />in real dollar terms<br />$29.23/bbl<br />2001<br />
  80. 80. 2001<br />
  81. 81.
  82. 82.
  83. 83. UNCERTAIN CERTAINTIES<br />
  84. 84.
  85. 85.
  86. 86. 2014 Elections?<br />
  87. 87.
  88. 88. WE ARE NOT ALONE IN THIS<br />
  89. 89. Photo: ibntimes<br />
  90. 90. Photo: historymike.blogspot.com<br />
  91. 91. “…The dominion of the West, is ending, not rapidly but steadily. Growth, jobs, expansion, excitement — and, yes, possibility — lie in the great non-Western arc from China through India to South Africa and Brazil. Go South! Go East! That’s the dictum of the age…”<br />Roger Cohen, International Herald Tribune and New York Times, 13 August 2011<br />
  92. 92. “May you live in interesting times.”<br />
  93. 93. “Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light, not our darkness that most frightens us.”<br />
  94. 94. Fortune favours the bold.<br />Kurt Ackermann<br />kurt@imagineer.cc<br />@kurt_a<br />Afrika-T.com<br />

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