Harper Collins Redux: A Cost Analysis of Harper Collins eBooks vs. Random House eBooks for Libraries

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Harper Collins Redux: A Cost Analysis of Harper Collins eBooks vs. Random House eBooks for Libraries

  1. 1. HarperCollins Redux A look at the numbers
  2. 2. The average price of a single ebook increased drastically in 2012 Average Price per eBook 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2010 2011 2012 2013
  3. 3. Current NYT Bestsellers Available as eBooks in OverDrive as of June 30, 2013 Fiction Hardcover Nonfiction Hardcover 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Inferno And the Mountains Echoed Bad Monkey The Silver Star The Eye of Moloch The King’s Deception The Last Original Wife Revenge Wears Prada The Hit Zero Hour Happy, Happy, Happy American Gun Lean In Dad is Fat Keep it Pithy Eleven Rings The Guns at Last Night Let’s Explore Diabetes with Owls 9. Collapse of Dignity 10. The Duck Commander Family
  4. 4. …including HarperCollins Books Hardcover Fiction Hardcover Nonfiction 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Inferno And the Mountains Echoed Bad Monkey The Silver Star The Eye of Moloch The King’s Deception The Last Original Wife Revenge Wears Prada The Hit Zero Hour Happy, Happy, Happy American Gun Lean In Dad is Fat Keep it Pithy Eleven Rings The Guns at Last Night Let’s Explore Diabetes with Owls 9. Collapse of Dignity 10. The Duck Commander Family
  5. 5. How much does a single copy of each book cost? One copy/one user • Inferno - $85 • Bad Monkey - $80.85 • The King’s Deception - $81 • Lean In – $74.85 • Dad is Fat - $75 • Keep it Pithy – $65.97 • Collapse of Dignity - $26.95 Metered access • The Last Original Wife $21.99 • American Gun - $23.99
  6. 6. How much does a single copy of each book cost? Price 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
  7. 7. Let’s assume each book is as popular as the most popular books in the collection… Fiction: 459 check outs Nonfiction: 334 check outs
  8. 8. How many HarperCollins licenses would we have to buy to meet the demand? Fiction: 18 copies Nonfiction: 13 copies
  9. 9. What would be the total cost based on each lending model? Total Cost 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
  10. 10. What is the cost per check out for each title? Cost per Circ $1.40 $1.20 $1.00 $0.80 $0.60 $0.40 $0.20 $0.00
  11. 11. What will the cost per circ be in the future?
  12. 12. 2010 2011 2012 2013 August July June May April March February January December November October September August July June May April March February January December November October September August July June May April March February January December November Pattern of circulation 25 20 15 10 The Confession Unbroken 5 0
  13. 13. 2010 2011 2012 2013 August July June May April March February January December November October September August July June May April March February January December November October September August July June 10 May 15 April 20 March February January December November Pattern of circulation 25 • 1 copy of The Confession every 1.9 months (about 6 copies a year) • 1 copy of Unbroken every 2.6 months (about 5 copies a year) The Confession Unbroken 5 0
  14. 14. Worst Case Scenario Metered access model • Cost stays the same - $21.99 • Project number of circs for 5 years – 780 • 30 licenses needed • $659.70 investment • $0.85 per check out • A potential additional investment of $131.94 every year One copy/one user • 5 copies already purchased at $85 • Project number of circs for 4 years – 780 • $425 investment • $0.54 per check out
  15. 15. Best case scenario Metered access model • Price falls to $12.99 after first year, then $9.99 the second year. • $21.99 for first 6 licenses = $134 • $12.99 for next 6 licenses = $74.94 • $9.99 for remaining licenses = $179.82 • Total investment = $388.76 • Cost per circ = $0.50 • A potential additional investment of $59.94 per year One copy/one user • 5 copies already purchased at $85 • Project number of circs for 5 years – 780 • $425 investment • $0.54 per check out
  16. 16. Projected Cost Per Circ 3 2.5 2 Metered access - price drops 1.5 Metered access - price stays the same One copy/one user 1 0.5 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

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