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2009: the year
of uncertainty
As we know
There are known knowns.
There are things we know                          we know.
We also know
There are known unknowns.
That is to say
We know there are some things
We do  not know.
But there are also unknown unknowns
The ones we don't know we don't know
Hart Seely, The existential poetry of Donald H Rumsfeld
Things fall apart; the
centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is
loosed upon the
world
      W.B. Yeats, The Second Coming
‘Nothing in life is ever
certain, but these
measures we think will
work in the long-term...
I don’t know how long it
will take’
   Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of
                England, 5 March 2009
the risks...
    1
the risks...
2 climate
‘The scientific evidence
is now overwhelming:
climate change presents
very serious global risks,
and it demands an
urgent global response.’
   Introduction to the Stern review of the
       economics of climate change, 2006
‘Looking back, the Stern
review underestimates
the risks and
underestimates the
damage from inaction’
    Lord Stern, speaking at the Copenhagen
climate change conference, 12 March 2009
the risks...
3 reduced
resources
Half of England’s local
authorities have cut jobs
in the last few months...
seven out of ten expect
further redundancies
   Local Government Association survey,
                        February 2009
the risks...
 4 political
uncertainty
So what about the
 opportunities?
A green new deal?
Germany has one
  million people
   working in
renewable energy
   ...the UK has 7,000
Local democracy
    revived?
Only 35% of
 eligible voters
took part in local
elections in 2008
Local economic
development?
20% of economic
   development and
 regeneration staff in
Yorkshire will retire in
  the next five years.
So what future for
  ‘great places’?
New investment?
‘Public resources are
keeping regeneration
going as much as the
   private sector’
 Michael Parkinson’s report on the credit
 crunch and regeneration, January 2009
What about
 poverty?
‘If the enormous volume of
   the philanthropy of the
   present day were wisely
directed it would, I believe,
in the course of a few years,
       change the face of
           England.’
              Joseph Rowntree, 1904
‘Breadline poverty levels
      are rising and
    socioeconomic and
geographical polarisation is
        increasing.’

      Poverty, wealth and place in Britain,
                            1968 to 2005
A stressed-out
    society
• 40% of incapacity benefit
 claimants suffer mental
 illness

• one third of GP patients have
 mental health problems

• six million people suffer from
 depression or anxiety
Social unrest?
This year’s
    fashion:
mashable culture
A Web 2.0 world:

• 184 million blogs, around 900,000
  posts daily

• 175 million people use Facebook
• 35 million people on LinkedIn
• 6 million people using Twitter
• what next?
‘You’re better off being
alone in the dark in this
  age of information’

       - Bill Bruford
‘I can’t remember the
 lines I used to think I
 could read between’

        - Brian Eno
A Web 2.0 world:
• disruptive technology?
• communication and collaboration?
• the world’s collective consciousness?
• a huge cocktail party, but without the
  cocktails?

• a new world order, but without the
  order?
‘There is only one thing
 in life worse than being
talked about, and that is
 not being talked about’
        - Oscar Wilde
No more business
    as usual
What do we value
- and what are our
      values?
• community self-help, or
 government direction?

• local distinctiveness, or
 economy of scale?

• equality of opportunity, or
 survival of the fittest?
‘In a universe of blind forces
and physical replication, some
 people are going to get hurt,
 others are going to get lucky,
and you won’t find any rhyme
or reason in it, nor any justice.’

              - Richard Dawkins,
                River Out of Eden
In a world where we
can’t agree about what
we think, what are the
   implications for
      what we do?
‘All the art and science
  of city planning are
  helpless to prevent
         decay.’

                     - Jane Jacobs, 1960
   The Death and Life of Great American
                                   Cities
Welcome to the future?
‘Knowledge is knowing
that a tomato is a fruit.
Wisdom is knowing not
to put it in a fruit salad’

       - Miles Kington

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The year of uncertainty

  • 1. 2009: the year of uncertainty
  • 2. As we know There are known knowns. There are things we know we know. We also know There are known unknowns. That is to say We know there are some things We do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns The ones we don't know we don't know Hart Seely, The existential poetry of Donald H Rumsfeld
  • 3. Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold; Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world W.B. Yeats, The Second Coming
  • 4. ‘Nothing in life is ever certain, but these measures we think will work in the long-term... I don’t know how long it will take’ Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England, 5 March 2009
  • 6.
  • 8.
  • 9. ‘The scientific evidence is now overwhelming: climate change presents very serious global risks, and it demands an urgent global response.’ Introduction to the Stern review of the economics of climate change, 2006
  • 10. ‘Looking back, the Stern review underestimates the risks and underestimates the damage from inaction’ Lord Stern, speaking at the Copenhagen climate change conference, 12 March 2009
  • 12.
  • 13. Half of England’s local authorities have cut jobs in the last few months... seven out of ten expect further redundancies Local Government Association survey, February 2009
  • 14. the risks... 4 political uncertainty
  • 15.
  • 16. So what about the opportunities?
  • 17. A green new deal?
  • 18.
  • 19. Germany has one million people working in renewable energy ...the UK has 7,000
  • 20. Local democracy revived?
  • 21.
  • 22. Only 35% of eligible voters took part in local elections in 2008
  • 24. 20% of economic development and regeneration staff in Yorkshire will retire in the next five years.
  • 25. So what future for ‘great places’?
  • 26.
  • 28.
  • 29. ‘Public resources are keeping regeneration going as much as the private sector’ Michael Parkinson’s report on the credit crunch and regeneration, January 2009
  • 31.
  • 32. ‘If the enormous volume of the philanthropy of the present day were wisely directed it would, I believe, in the course of a few years, change the face of England.’ Joseph Rowntree, 1904
  • 33. ‘Breadline poverty levels are rising and socioeconomic and geographical polarisation is increasing.’ Poverty, wealth and place in Britain, 1968 to 2005
  • 34. A stressed-out society
  • 35. • 40% of incapacity benefit claimants suffer mental illness • one third of GP patients have mental health problems • six million people suffer from depression or anxiety
  • 37.
  • 38. This year’s fashion: mashable culture
  • 39. A Web 2.0 world: • 184 million blogs, around 900,000 posts daily • 175 million people use Facebook • 35 million people on LinkedIn • 6 million people using Twitter • what next?
  • 40. ‘You’re better off being alone in the dark in this age of information’ - Bill Bruford
  • 41.
  • 42. ‘I can’t remember the lines I used to think I could read between’ - Brian Eno
  • 43. A Web 2.0 world: • disruptive technology? • communication and collaboration? • the world’s collective consciousness? • a huge cocktail party, but without the cocktails? • a new world order, but without the order?
  • 44. ‘There is only one thing in life worse than being talked about, and that is not being talked about’ - Oscar Wilde
  • 45. No more business as usual
  • 46. What do we value - and what are our values?
  • 47. • community self-help, or government direction? • local distinctiveness, or economy of scale? • equality of opportunity, or survival of the fittest?
  • 48. ‘In a universe of blind forces and physical replication, some people are going to get hurt, others are going to get lucky, and you won’t find any rhyme or reason in it, nor any justice.’ - Richard Dawkins, River Out of Eden
  • 49. In a world where we can’t agree about what we think, what are the implications for what we do?
  • 50. ‘All the art and science of city planning are helpless to prevent decay.’ - Jane Jacobs, 1960 The Death and Life of Great American Cities
  • 51. Welcome to the future?
  • 52. ‘Knowledge is knowing that a tomato is a fruit. Wisdom is knowing not to put it in a fruit salad’ - Miles Kington