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We 110603

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We 110603

  1. 1. WEEKLY SUMMARY May 30 - June 3, 2011 Close w/w (%) 3M (%) YTD (%) y/y (%) 52W Low 52W HighPX 1,232 -0.6 0.1 0.6 #N/A 1,100 1,276CZK/EUR 24.33 0.8 0.2 3.3 6.4 23.99 26.02CZK/USD 16.63 3.0 6.5 13.8 28.1 16.27 21.81PRIBOR 6M 1.56% 0bp -1bp 0bp 3bps 1.47% 1.58%10Y GB 3.75/20 3.64% -11bps -33bps -27bps -66bps 3.23% 4.35%Prague Stock Exchange Close w/w (%)AAA Auto 25.0 -2.4CME 348 -6.3 CZK m PX IndexCEZ 900 -3.2 4,000 1,300ECM 33 -4.9Erste 843 0.9Fortuna 134 3.8 3,000 1,250KB 4,100 1.1KITD 199 -5.2NWR 240 -12.3 2,000 1,200Orco 218 -4.6Pegas 446 1.1PMCR 9,460 2.3 1,000 1,150TEF 417 1.3Unipetrol 181 0.2VIG 958 -0.4 0 1,100 Equity Bonds 6/05 13/05 20/05 27/05 3/06CZK m 9,168 9,087EUR m 374.4 371.6Source: Bloomberg, PSE, ATLANTIK FTHEADLINES ONE-WEEK OUTLOOKCEZ Given the unfavourable macroeconomic data released last- Shutdown at Temelin extended week (especially US monthly unemployment report) and the- Ex-dividend day absence of new events, we still expect to see negative- Managers sell company shares sentiment and potential profit-taking this week.Pegas Fortuna is going ex-dividend today, 6 June (EUR 0.3 per- Investment in Egypt worth EUR 55-60m share; 5.7% gross. div. yield). The situation around Sazka will be still monitored, with a potential impact on Fortuna;NWR however, that should be already priced in.- Majority owner to sell up to 16m shares In case of CEZ, there will be on external factor – German- Third closing date of share-for-share offer parliament is to decide today on the future of the nuclearFortuna energy programme.- Last cum-dividend day NWR should know the outcome of the FTSE- Offer for lottery activities of Sazka committees review of the index on Wednesday (8Economy June). The effect of potential inclusion of NWR in the index- Weaker industrial output in April should be seen on 17 June. Due to an additional supply- Trade balance surplus offset by high crude oil of shares by majority owner BXR of up to 16m piecesprices (6.1% of the companys value), we consider this factor neutral without an impact on the stock price. Concerning macroeconomic events, the upcoming week will be just the opposite of the previous week as regards the number and the importance of macroeconomic releases. Markets will probably follow FEDs Beige Book (Wednesday), which assesses the US economy and provides an economic outlook. In Europe, the ECB meets on Thursday. The interest rates are expected to be left unchanged at 1.25%. The central banks commentary will be followed. For the time being, market expects interest rates to be raised at the next meeting in July.
  2. 2. EQUITY MARKET – PRAGUE STOCK EXCHANGEMARKET NEWSThe first week of June was marked by weak macroeconomic data, which triggered profit-taking. The domestic market wasno exception. The PX Index closed the week at 1,232 points, down 0.6% w/w. Investors followed US macroeconomicdata and rating agencies announcements. For example, Moody´s mentioned a potential US rating downgrade if noagreement is reached on budgetary needs and gradual budget deficit cuts. The anticipated US monthly unemploymentreport came in below expectations (54 thousand jobs vs. exp. +162 thousand).The local market monitored events around Sazka, which showed up in the stock price of Fortuna. The stock almost reachedCZK 150 during the week, finishing at CZK 134 (+3.8% w/w) as the biggest gainer of the week. NWR, by contrast, wasthe most declining stock (-12.3% to CZK 240.3) after BXR (majority owner of NWR) offered up to 16m shares for sale tomeet investors demand in anticipation of potential inclusion of the stock in the FTSE 250 index. As a result, the positiveeffect of higher demand upon the potential inclusion was counterbalanced. In addition, the upcoming IPO of Polish peerJSW (end of June) could be a potentially negative factor. Index Close w/w (%) 3M (%) YTD (%) y/y (%) 52W Low 52W High PX 1,232 -0.6 0.1 0.6 8.5 1,100 1,276 Wien (ATX) 2,764 0.6 -4.3 -4.8 21.9 2,217 3,001 Warsaw (WIG 20) 2,884 0.6 7.1 4.6 22.5 2,271 2,933 Budapest (BUX) 23,076 0.1 1.5 8.4 8.4 20,221 24,451 Euro Stoxx50 2,789 -1.1 -6.5 -0.6 9.2 2,508 3,068 Dow Jones 12,151 -2.3 0.8 5.0 22.3 9,686 12,811 S&P500 1,300 -2.3 -0.5 3.4 22.1 1,023 1,364 Nasdaq 2,733 -2.3 -0.2 2.6 23.1 2,092 2,874COMPANY NEWSCEZ ndThe ongoing shut-down of the 2 unit of Temelin will be extended by two weeks vs. the original plan. The delay isdue to technical problems. We had already informed about this last week and consider the news neutral.CEZs shares went ex-dividend on 3 June. The dividend approved by the general meeting from 2010 profit is CZK50/share (5.30% gross div. yield). The dividend record day is on 7 June and the payment day falls on 1 August.According to the Czech National Bank, CEZs managers sold in aggregate 450,000 shares of the company from 27May to 1 June 2011. CEO Martin Roman was one of the sellers. Sale of shares by members of management could beperceived negatively by the market but we believe that given the significant stock price growth in the past few monthssuch sale could be expected.Pegas NonwovensPegas Nonwovens announced an investment in a new production facility in Egypt. Initial costs are estimated toreach EUR 55-60m. The investment depends on an agreement with a major customer, which is interested in thecompanys production in the Middle East. The contract should be signed within the next few months. According to a pressrelease, in the first phase, Pegas plans to build a production line with an annual capacity of 20kt, which should belaunched in 2H 2013. If markets conditions are favourable, a second line could be added (2015-2016).Details about how the acquisition will be funded were not released but the funding should be done through own sourcesor bank loans. We do not expect a share issue. The investment should not jeopardize the progressive dividend policy ofthe company, as confirmed in the 1Q11 conference call.A new production facility will be an entry point for the company to North Africa, Middle East and Asia markets. We regardthe deal as the right investment decision.NWRNWR announced that as at 1 June (4 p.m. CET), the third closing date of the share offer, it received acceptances inrespect of 2,174,475 shares. Total acceptances represent almost 99% of the issued shares. Trading in the new sharesstarted on 2 June in London and Prague and on 3 June 2011 in Warsaw. As a reminder, the offer is related to NWRsreincorporation to the UK and subsequent inclusion into the FTSE index. The news is neutral.NWR has announced that its majority owner BXR Mining will sell up to 16m shares of NWR (about 6.1% stake),reducing its stake (64.3% in NWR) in order to enhance liquidity in connection with the inclusion of NWR in the FTSEindex. The offer will be non-public and is subject to the price offered.
  3. 3. EQUITY MARKET – PRAGUE STOCK EXCHANGEThe announced transaction is neutralizing the positive effect (in terms of higher demand) related to potentialinclusion of the stock in the FTSE index. Please note that NWR expects to be included in the FTSE 250 index duringthe next quarterly review (scheduled for 8 June 2011), effective from 17 June. The inclusion is subject to approval by theFTSE committee.In addition, the stock could potentially face certain pressure in connection with investors freeing funds for the IPOof Polish miner JSW (book-building period: 13-28 June; trading on the WSE will commence on 6 July).The announced sale does not change our fundamental view of the stock and we therefore maintain our target price.However, the higher supply is of course felt on the market.Nevertheless, increasing the free float could lead to potentially higher weighting of NWR in the FTSE 250 index. Havingsaid that, the potential positive effect (higher demand) of inclusion in the index will be muted at least in the short term and,moreover, the stock could potentially remain under pressure due to the anticipated IPO of JSW.FortunaFortunas shares are going ex-dividend today, 6 June (EUR 0.3 per share). At the present currency rate, this meansabout 5.7% gross dividend yield. The dividend payment day is on 24 June.Penta (majority owner of Fortuna) and E-invest submitted a joint offer for lottery activities of Sazka, which wasofficially declared bankrupt last Monday. The offer price is CZK 3.5bn and the companies also offer to pay CZK 300mannually from lottery earnings to sports clubs. Penta intends to take advantage of the synergy of Sazka and Fortuna tocreate a dominant player on the Czech lottery market. There are more companies interested in acquiring Sazka(Fortuna itself had earlier submitted an independent offer worth CZK 2 – 2.5bn) and negotiations may be expected to belengthy. This is positive for Fortuna even if the acquisition fails. In the second half of July, Fortuna is launching its ownlottery and the unresolved problems regarding Sazka would make it much easier for Fortuna to start the lottery andacquire a market share faster. Pentas strategy will be to seek Sazkas acquisition or at least try to delay the finalresolution of Sazkas situation.
  4. 4. EQUITY MARKET – PRAGUE STOCK EXCHANGEMARKET IN FIGURES Market Volume (CZK m) Change (%) (EUR m) Change (%) (USD m) Change (%) 9,167.5 16.7 374.4 16.6 540.3 21.3Note: Percentage change relative to the average weekly volume over the past six months Close w/w 3m y/y 52W Weekly volume (%) (%) rel. (%)* (%) rel. (%)* Low High CZK m rel. (%) AAA Auto 25.0 -2.4 2.4 2.3 36.1 30.7 17 28 4 -3 CME 348 -6.3 2.6 2.5 -39.0 -41.4 311 559 98 -49 CEZ 900 -3.2 11.8 11.7 -1.0 -4.9 736 967 4,655 47 ECM 33 -4.9 -60.5 -60.5 -83.9 -84.6 25 208 2 -39 Erste 843 0.9 -7.5 -7.5 12.9 8.4 642 965 607 -30 Fortuna 134 3.8 30.2 30.1 n.a. n.a. 84 149 526 -40 KB 4,100 1.1 -4.0 -4.1 11.1 6.7 3,275 4,600 1,201 -37 KITD 199 -5.2 -10.6 -10.6 -11.6 -15.0 163 318 27 37 NWR 240 -12.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 240 290 1,450 103 Orco 218 -4.6 9.1 9.0 39.0 33.6 110 252 21 -13 Pegas 446 1.1 2.1 2.0 1.4 -2.6 410 475 36 13 PMCR 9,460 2.3 2.3 2.2 13.6 9.1 8,015 10,801 95 -96 TEF 417 1.3 4.5 4.4 0.5 -3.5 369 452 403 -32 Unipetrol 181 0.2 3.7 3.6 -7.9 -11.6 170 229 32 -99 VIG 958 -0.4 -5.9 -6.0 9.7 5.4 801 1,067 7 -75Note: *Percentage change relative to the index PX.** Percentage change relative to the average weekly volume over the past six months. Ratios P/E P/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/ Sales Target LT ST 2010 2011e 2010 2011e 2010 2011e 2010 2011e Price Recomm. Outlook AAA Auto 13.7 n.a. 0.3 n.a. 8.9 n.a. 0.5 n.a. Not rated CME 13.3 -11.9 1.8 1.7 22.8 12.3 3.3 3.1 USD 25 Buy Neutral CEZ 10.3 11.6 2.4 2.4 7.5 7.6 3.3 3.2 CZK 940 Buy Neutral ECM -0.8 n.a. 1.2 n.a. 2.4 n.a. 1.2 n.a. Not rated Fortuna 16.3 16.5 3.5 3.4 11.1 10.8 3.5 3.4 CZK 127 Buy Neutral KITD n.a. n.a. 1.2 n.a. 0.0 n.a. 1.2 n.a. Not rated NWR 11.8 8.0 1.6 1.4 5.6 3.9 1.6 1.4 CZK 308 Buy Positive Orco 12.2 n.a. 7.6 n.a. 70.1 n.a. 7.6 n.a. Not rated Pegas 7.9 6.9 1.4 1.2 4.9 4.0 1.4 1.2 CZK 488 Buy Neutral PMCR 11.6 10.9 2.4 2.1 8.0 7.6 2.4 2.1 Pending Pending Neutral TEF 11.0 16.1 2.4 2.5 5.8 6.1 2.4 2.5 CZK 427 Hold Neutral Unipetrol 31.7 11.2 0.4 0.5 6.3 4.3 0.4 0.5 Pending Pending Pending Ratios P/E P/BV Target LT ST 2010 2011e 2010 2011e Price Recomm. Outlook KB 11.7 11.1 2.0 2.0 CZK 4,441 Hold Neutral Erste 12.9 9.7 1.0 0.9 EUR 34.0 Hold Neutral VIG 12.6 10.5 1.1 1.0 EUR 46.5 Buy Neutral
  5. 5. EQUITY MARKET – BRATISLAVA STOCK EXCHANGE Weekly volume Close w/w (%) 3M (%) y/y(%) 52W Low 52W High (EUR ths) VUB 81.0 -0.6 -11.2 15.7 67.0 95.0 7 SES Tlmače 7.0 -50.0 -50.0 -58.8 7.0 17.0 0 OTP 4.00 0.0 81.0 33.3 2.01 4.10 0 Biotika 21.0 0.0 -2.3 130.6 9.1 23.2 5 Slovnaft 50.0 0.0 0.0 -7.5 40.0 58.3 0 BHP 11.2 0.1 1.0 8.2 10.3 11.2 334 TMR 42.0 -0.2 1.4 5.5 39.7 42.5 416 SAX Index 230.34 -2.5 0.8 11.2 204 248.53 762 MARKET COMMENT After a previous long pause following the 2010 results, SES Tlmače traded at EUR 7, down 50% last week. VÚBs shares stayed at EUR 81.50 almost all week, eventually falling to EUR 81 and closing down 0.6%. TMR traded SAX Index within a narrow range of EUR 42 – 42.28 and closed 255 down about 0.2% at EUR 42. Slovnaft first fell to EUR 250 47.50 before rebounding to EUR 50, i.e. flat w/w. Biotika closed also flat at EUR 21.01. The only growing stock in 245 the SAX Index was BHP, which finished up 0.1% at EUR 240 11.20. 235 The SAX Index posted a loss of 2.5% to 230.34 points. Traded volumes reached about EUR 750 thousand, with 230 half of the volumes traded in TMR. Of stocks not included in the SAX Index, Zentiva is worth mentioning. The shares 225 were traded within EUR 131.03 – 131.27 and they gained 220 about 64% YTD. 6/05 13/05 20/05 27/05 3/06EUR TMR - Tatry Mountain Resorts EUR BHP - Best Hotel Properties 11.2442.442.2 11.2042.041.8 11.1641.6 11.1241.441.2 11.08 6/05 13/05 20/05 27/05 3/06 6/05 13/05 20/05 27/05 3/06
  6. 6. ECONOMYIndustrial output – AprilGrowth in industrial output slowed down to 4.7% y/y (vs. 12.9% on average in 1Q), falling short of expectations(8.0%). Seasonally adjusted production increased by 0.3% m/m. Although the year-on-year comparison was negativelyimpacted by a calendar effect (-1 working day), the adjusted result (7.7%) is still worse than expected and indicates anongoing slow-down, which started in February. The data fit into the weaker results of the German industry (in particular adecline in orders). Apart from the overall result, detailed figures do not reveal any major surprises.Exports remain the decisive factor; total sales grew by 6.5% y/y, of which export sales grew by 13% y/y and domesticsales by less than 1%. Industrial production growth could continue, albeit at a slower pace, which is indicated by a solidincrease in new orders (9%, of which new orders from abroad: 9%). Main growth drivers include car manufacturing (17%),machinery (10%) and metallurgy (7%). This year we expect an increase of 7%.Trade balance – AprilTrade balance in April ended with a surplus of CZK 12.6bn (CZK 14.1bn in April 2010), in line with our expectations(CZK 12bn) but slightly below market consensus (CZK 15bn). Exports continued to grow at a strong pace (15% y/y) intraditional categories. Car and machinery exports rose by 20%. Imports continued to grow too (17%), supported by arecovery in investment demand along with growing prices of commodities, crude oil in particular. The value of importedcrude oil, gas and fuels rose by 25% but the volume of crude oil and gas fell by 13% and 2%, respectively. The tradedeficit in energies increased by CZK 3.2bn, erasing a part of the 6.5bn higher surplus from trade in machinery and cars.According to the national methodology of balance of payments, foreign trade posted a surplus of CZK 0.9bn.The results passed without any reaction on the part of the FX market and the koruna stayed at 24.32 per euro.Indicators Last Figure Period 2009 2010 2011eGDP (real) %, y/y (real) 2.9 4Q/10 -4.0 2.2 2.0Industrial output %, y/y (real) 16.9 02/11 -13.4 10.5 7.5CPI %, y/y 1.8 02/11 1.0 1.5 2.2Trade balance bn CZK 1.0 12/10 151.7 124.5 105.2Current account % of GDP -1.0 2009 -1.0 -3.3 -1.8Unemployment % 9.7 01/11 8.1 9.0 8.1
  7. 7. FOREXCZK/EUR USD Koruna EUR 16.0 23.0The koruna stagnated against the euro all week around24.50 but firmed to 24.33 at the end of the week. Thefirming was triggered by the weakening of the dollar against 16.4 23.5the euro, which was subsequently reflected in other regionalcurrencies. 24.0We still expect rather calm and stable trading, and the koruna 16.8could firm further in the short term (24.2). By the end of the 24.5summer the koruna could get stabilized around 24.2-24.6. The 17.2long-term outlook remains unchanged and we expect to see USDthe Czech currency firm to 23.8. EUR 25.0 17.6 6/05 13/05 20/05 27/05 3/06CZK/USDThe koruna was firming against the dollar all week,moving from 17.20 to a month high of CZK 16.60/USD. The firming accelerated toward the end of the week, when thedollar weakened against the euro and the koruna firmed against the euro.Higher volatility will probably continue and the dollar could continue weakening (16.50?) in the short term. In the longterm (months) rather than a clear trend we expect to see higher volatility within CZK 16-20 per USD.USD/EURThe euro was steadily firming against the dollar. After moving from USD 1.43/EUR to 1.45/EUR, it jumped to a monthhigh of 1.463, as another loan by the EU to Greece is becoming a possibility. Moreover, US macroeconomic data,especially the unemployment report, were weak.The dollar got under a strong selling pressure and besides a technical correction there are not many events that wouldsupport the dollar in the short term. The ECB meets on Thursday. Interest rates are expected to be kept unchanged butat the same time the central bank is expected to indicate their raise in July. If expectations are not met, the euro couldsignificantly weaken. Exchange Rates Close w/w 3M YTD y/y 52W Forward Forward (%) (%) (%) (%) Low High 1M 6M CZK/EUR 24.33 0.8 0.2 3.3 6.4 24.0 26.0 24.3 24.3 CZK/USD 16.63 3.0 6.5 13.8 28.1 16.3 21.8 16.6 16.7 CZK/GBP 27.30 3.6 5.4 6.9 14.0 26.9 31.9 27.3 27.3 USD/EUR 1.464 -2.2 -5.9 -9.2 -16.9 1.19 1.48 1.46 1.46
  8. 8. CZK–MONEY AND BOND MARKETPRIBOR Fixing (%) w/w (bps) 3M (bps) YTD (bps) Y/Y (bps) 52W Low 52W High FRA 3M2W 0.83 -1 -3 0 -4 0.81 0.88 n.a.3M 1.21 0 0 -1 -4 1.18 1.25 1.326M 1.56 0 -1 0 3 1.47 1.58 1.521Y 1.83 -1 2 3 5 1.75 1.85 n.a. CZK - Yield curve CZK - Money Market 5.0 2.00 1.75 4.0 1.50 3.0 1.25 2.0 1.00 1.0 0.75 3/5/2011 3/5/2011 3/6/2011 3/6/2011 0.50 0.0 1W 2W 1M 3M 6M 9M 1Y 0 2 4 6 years 8 10 12 14Bond Market Volume (CZK m) change (%) (EUR m) change (%) (USD m) change (%) 9,087.1 -11.7 371.6 -11.4 537.6 -7.1Note: Percentage change relative to the average weekly volume over the past six monthsName Maturity Price w/w Volume YTM w/w Duration (bps) (CZK m) (%) (bps)GB 3.55/12 18-Oct-12 102.82 1 1,208 1.44 -3.6 1.3GB 3.70/13 16-Jun-13 103.95 -5 158 1.70 0.6 1.9GB 3.80/15 11-Apr-15 104.97 31 63 2.43 -9.0 3.6GB 5.00/19 11-Apr-19 110.05 27 1,439 3.51 -4.1 6.7GB 3.75/20 12-Sep-20 100.88 89 124 3.64 -11.5 7.8
  9. 9. COMMODITIES Close w/w (%) 3M (%) YTD (%) y/y (%) 52W Low 52W HighCrude Oil - Brent 115.8 0.7 0.4 24.4 53.6 71.5 126.7Crude Oil - WTI 100.2 -0.4 0.6 11.6 34.3 71.4 113.9Gold 1,542 0.4 7.6 9.8 27.8 1,162 1,564Electricity 59.5 0.1 12.6 11.0 13.2 46.6 60.7Coal 129.7 1.5 7.1 6.4 33.2 95.7 133.6Aluminium 2,637 0.5 1.0 7.5 34.9 1,868 2,797Copper 9,099 -1.1 -7.7 -4.2 39.4 6,101 10,160Wheat 773.8 -5.6 -0.3 -1.4 75.2 428 886Corn 754 -0.6 3.7 22.4 115.7 325 776Soybean 1,415 2.5 3.4 3.6 48.1 931 1,451 Crude oil & GoldCommodity markets were quite still last week with most USD/bbl 126 USD/oz. 1600major indices, as well as individual sectors, stagnating.Weaker US macroeconomic data were offset by a firming 1550dollar. Crude oil stayed on the same level for a second 120week in a row (Brent: USD 115; WTI: USD 102). Gold movedaround USD 1,540/oz., while silver weakened by 5% to USD 150036.2/oz halfway through the week. Agricultural commodities 114as a whole stagnated but separate commodities showed 1450mixed development. Wheat (-5% w/w) was hammered down Crude oil - Brentby news of a lifted ban on Russian exports, and cotton (+6%) Gold 108 1400was lifted by worries of drought in the USA, the leading 6/05 13/05 20/05 27/05 3/06exporter. USD/t Coal&Electricity EUR/MW USD/t Copper & Corn US cent/bu 10500 800 135 65 10000 750 130 9500 700 125 60 9000 120 650 8500 Coal 1Y ARA Copper Electricity Corn 115 55 8000 600 6/05 13/05 20/05 27/05 3/06 6/05 13/05 20/05 27/05 3/06
  10. 10. LOOKING AHEAD Date Time Country Indicator/Company Periods eAFT eMarket Previous6/6/2011 9:00 CR Construction output 04/11 - - 4.6% y/y6/6/2011 9:00 CR Industrial production 04/11 8.0% y/y 8.0% y/y 9.5% y/y6/6/2011 9:00 CR Trade balance 04/11 CZK 12.6bn CZK 15.0bn CZK 21.5bn6/6/2011 11:00 Eurozone PPI 04/11 - 0.8% m/m 0.7% m/m6/6/2011 11:00 Eurozone PPI 04/11 - 6.6% y/y 6.7% y/y7/6/2011 9:00 Slovakia Retail sales 04/11 - -0.4% y/y -3.4% y/y7/6/2011 11:00 Eurozone Retail Sales 04/11 - 0.0% y/y -1.7% y/y7/6/2011 11:00 Eurozone Retail Sales 04/11 - - -1.7% y/y7/6/2011 12:00 Germany Manufacturing Orders 04/11 - 2.0% m/m -4.0% m/m7/6/2011 - CR CEZ: Dividend record date 07/02 CZK 50 - CZK 538/6/2011 9:00 CR Unemployment rate 05/11 8.3% 8.2% 8.6%8/6/2011 9:00 Romania GDP Q1/11f - - 1.6% y/y8/6/2011 9:00 Romania Industrial production 04/11 - - 7.4% y/y8/6/2011 9:00 Slovakia GDP Q1/11f - 3.5% y/y 3.5% y/y8/6/2011 9:00 Slovakia Industrial production 04/11 - 6.5% y/y 6.8% y/y8/6/2011 11:00 Eurozone GDP s.a. Q1/11p - 2.5% y/y 2.5% y/y8/6/2011 11:00 Eurozone GDP s.a. Q1/11p - - 2.5% y/y8/6/2011 12:00 Germany Industrial production 04/11 - 0.2% m/m 0.7% m/m8/6/2011 12:00 Germany Industrial production 04/11 - - 0.7% m/m8/6/2011 20:00 USA Feds Beige Book - -8/6/2011 - Poland Central bank - Interest rate - - 4.50% 4.25%9/6/2011 9:00 CR GDP Q1/11f - - 2.5% y/y9/6/2011 9:00 Hungary GDP Q1/11f - - 2.4% y/y9/6/2011 9:00 CR CPI 05/11 - 0.3% m/m 0.3% m/m9/6/2011 9:00 CR CPI 05/11 - 1.8% y/y 1.6% y/y9/6/2011 13:00 UK BOE interest rates decision - - 0.5% 0.5%9/6/2011 13:45 Eurozone ECB interest rates decision - - 1.25% 1.25%9/6/2011 14:30 USA Trade balance 04/11 - USD -48.9bn USD -48.2bn9/6/2011 - - Fotex - - - HUF 0.110/6/2011 8:00 Germany CPI 05/11f - 0.0% m/m 0.0% m/m10/6/2011 8:00 Germany CPI 05/11f - 2.3% y/y 2.3% y/y10/6/2011 9:00 Romania CPI 05/11 - 0.3% m/m 0.7% m/m10/6/2011 9:00 Romania CPI 05/11 - 8.5% y/y 8.3% y/y10/6/2011 17:00 CR Pegas - AGM Registration FY2010 - - -10/6/2011 - - National Semiconductor - - USD 0.27 USD 1.37
  11. 11. CONTACTSJ&T ATLANTIKTrading Trading Name Contact Name Contact Michal Semotan +420 221 710 130 David Novy +420 221 710 628 Trading and Sales semotan@jtbank.cz Trading – Czech and Foreign Equities david.novy@atlantik.cz Michal Znojil +420 221 710 131 Barbora Stieberova +420 221 710 648 Trading and Sales znojil@jtbank.cz Trading – Czech and Foreign Equities barbora.stieberova@atlantik.cz Michal Stubna +421 259 418 173 Tereza Jaluvkova +420 221 710 606 Trading – Slovak Equities stubna@jtbank.cz Trading – Czech and Foreign Equities tereza.jaluvkova@atlantik.cz Tomas Brychta +420 221 710 238 Marek Kijevsky +420 221 710 669 Money Market, Forex brychta@jtbank.cz Trading – Foreign Equities marek.kijevsky@atlantik.cz Petr Vodicka +420 221 710 155 Miroslav Nejezchleba +420 221 710 633 Fixed Income vodicka@jtbank.cz Trading – Foreign Equities miroslav.nejezchleba@atlantik.czPortfolio Management – Client Service Sales and Client Service Name Contact Name Contact Roman Hajda +420 221 710 224 Dalibor Hampejs +420 545 423 448 Chief Investment Officer hajda@jtbank.cz Mutual Funds dalibor.hampejs@atlantik.cz Petr Holinsky +420 221 710 429 Milerská Zuzana +420 800 484 484 Portfolio Manager holinsky@jtbank.cz Client Service atlantik@atlantik.czPortfolio Management Research Name Contact Name Contact Martin Kujal +420 221 710 698 Milan Vanicek +420 221 710 607 Chief Investment Officer; bonds martin.kujal@atlantik.cz Strategy, pharma, telecom milan.vanicek@atlantik.cz Marek Janecka +420 221 710 699 Milan Lavicka +420 221 710 614 Portfolio Manager; equity marek.janecka@atlantik.cz Banking, financials milan.lavicka@atlantik.cz Miroslav Padera +420 221 710 623 Bohumil Trampota +420 221 710 657 Portfolio Manager; DPM miroslav.padera @atlantik.cz Utilites, oil&gas bohumil.trampota@atlantik.cz Pavel Ryska +420 221 710 658 Media, real estate pavel.ryska@atlantik.cz Petr Sklenar +420 221 710 619 Macroeconomics, fixed income petr.sklenar@atlantik.cz ATLANTIK finanční trhy, a.s. Praha: Brno: Pobrezni 14 Vesela 24 186 00 Prague 8 602 00 Brno Czech Republic Czech Republic Tel.: +420 221 710 666 Tel.: +420 545 423 411 Fax: +420 221 710 626 Tel: 800 484 484 atlantik@atlantik.cz www.atlantik.cz Bloomberg: ATLK <GO> Reuters: ATLK J&T BANKA Czech Republic Slovakia J&T Banka, a. s. J&T Banka, a. s., pobočka zahraničnej banky Pobrezni 14 Lamacska cesta 3 186 00 Prague 8 841 04 Bratislava Czech Republic Slovakia Tel.: +420.221.710.111 Tel.: +421.259.418.111 www.jtbank.cz www.jt-bank.sk
  12. 12. DISCLAIMERATLANTIK finanční trhy, a.s. (hereinafter only “ATLANTIK FT”) is a licensed securities brokerage and a member of the Prague Stock Exchange (Burzacenných papírů Praha, a.s.) authorized to provide investment services as outlined in Act No. 256/2004 Sb. on Business Activities on the Capital Market.J & T BANKA, a.s. (hereinafter only “the Bank“) is a licensed bank and a member of the Prague Stock Exchange authorized to provide investmentservices as outlined in Act No. 256/2004 Sb. on Business Activities on the Capital Market. ATLANTIK FT and the Bank prepare and disseminateinvestment recommendations in accordance with legal regulations, their internal regulations, and Directive No. 114/2006 Sb, "Impartial Presentation ofInvestment Recommendations." The activities of ATLANTIK FT and the Bank are subject to the oversight of the Czech National Bank, Na Příkopě 28,115 03 Prague 1 – http://www.cnb.cz/.ATLANTIK FT and the Bank disseminate recommendations pursuant to Directive No. 114/2006 Sb, "Impartial Presentation of InvestmentRecommendations", and this document contains some important information and notice related to the creation and dissemination of investmentrecommendations.ATLANTIK FT and the Bank issue investment recommendations created by the employees of ATLANTIK FT and/or the Bank (hereinafter only“Analysts”). Analysts who create investment recommendations bear full responsibility for the objectivity of such recommendations.Levels of investment recommendations usedATLANTIK FT and the Bank use the following levels of investment recommendations: BUY – It is anticipated that the percentage difference between the one-year target price of the share (determined by one of the valuation methods stated below) and the current market price exceeds the minimum theoretical required return for the respective share. This required return is calculated as the sum of earnings from a risk-free asset (Czech government bonds with the longest term to maturity) and the product of beta coefficient and a risk premium (determined individually for each company and derived from the risk premium for the Czech market). HOLD – It is anticipated that the percentage difference between the one-year target price of the share (determined by one of the valuation methods stated below) and the current market price is less than the minimum theoretical required return for the respective share but, at the same time, exceeds the return from a risk-free asset. SELL – It is anticipated that the percentage difference between the one-year target price of the share (determined by one of the valuation methods stated below) and the current market price is less than the return from a risk-free asset.Valuation methodsTo valuate companies and investment projects ATLANTIK FT and the Bank use first of all a method of discounted cash flow (FCFE or DDM). A methodof relative comparison is an integral part of every valuation, but it serves more as a corroborative test for the discounting method due to the followingreasons: (i) differences in accounting standards, (ii) differences in the sizes of companies, (iii) information availability, (iv) impacts of acquisitions andsubsidiaries on balance sheet structures, (v) differences in dividend strategies, and (vi) differences in expectations of future profit margins. If thefundamental valuation is in principle consistent with the range of values determined on the basis of the relative comparison, this implies that theprojections of cash flows and other key assumptions of the discount model are correct (especially the discount factor, growth rate for the so-called“infinite period,” capital structure, etc). In the reverse case, it is necessary to identify factors which cause principal differences between the findings ofthe two valuation methods.Measures preventing conflicts of interest in association with investment instruments:The remuneration to persons who participate in producing investment recommendations depends in particular on the quality of the work performed, theresults achieved and the company’s overall profit. Those who participate in producing the investment recommendations have neither financial nor othermotivations to issue investment recommendations of a particular level or direction. In complying with the rules for prudently providing investmentservices and for organizing the company’s internal operations, ATLANTIK FT and the Bank apply procedures and rules set forth by legal regulations andthe company’s internal regulations which prevent conflicts of interest in association with investment instruments contained in the investmentrecommendations disseminated by ATLANTIK FT and the Bank.Additional noticeATLANTIK FT, the Bank and their related parties, and persons that have a legal or actual relationship with them, including members of authorisedrepresentative bodies, senior employees or other employees, may trade in investment instruments or make other investments or transactions related tothem, and may during a decisive period buy or sell, or offer to buy or sell on regulated markets or elsewhere, whether as a broker, an intermediary, or inanother legal role.Traders and other employees of ATLANTIK FT and the Bank and/or related parties may offer clients and its own trading department oral or writtenmarket commentaries or trading strategies reflecting opinions which are at variance with the opinions expressed in investment recommendations.In making investment decision, investors should regard investment recommendations only as one of several factors to be considered. Investmentanalyses and recommendations issued by ATLANTIK FT and the Bank and/or related parties have been prepared in accordance with the rules ofconduct and internal regulations for managing conflicts of interest associated with investment recommendations.An overview of changes in the level for an investment instrument in regard to which ATLANTIK FT and the Bank have issued an investmentrecommendation and its price targets during the past 12 months are published and accessible at http://www.atlantik.cz/ and/or http://www.jtbank.cz.The issuer was not acquainted with the recommendation prior to its issuance and therefore the recommendation has not been modified or adjusted inany way at the issuer´s request.It is always the Client’s responsibility to make the final investment decisions and the Client bears full responsibility for them.Although investment recommendations of ATLANTIK FT and the Bank are prepared by Analysts in good faith, in a professional and a fair manner andwith due care, ATLANTIK FT and/or the Bank cannot accept responsibility and cannot guarantee that the information contained therein is complete oraccurate, except for the information concerning ATLANTIK FT and the Bank.The investment recommendations express the opinions of Analysts as at the date of their publication and may be changed without prior notice.Successful investments in the past do not guarantee the same results in the future. Investment recommendations do not in any case constitute an offerto purchase or sell any investment instruments. The individual investment instruments or strategies stated in the investment recommendations do nothave to be suitable for every investor. The opinions and recommendations stated therein do not take into account the situation of individual clients, theirfinancial positions, objectives or needs. The investment recommendations should serve those investors who are anticipated to make their owninvestment decisions without depending unreasonably on the information stated in the investment recommendations. These investors are obliged tomake their own decisions as to the expediency of investments made in any investment instruments by appropriately considering the price, possiblethreats and risks, along with their own investment strategies and financial situation. The value or price of any investment may change. Therefore,investors may receive funds in return that are lower than their original investments.Successful investments made in the past do not guarantee favourable results in the future.2011 © ATLANTIK finanční trhy, a.s., J & T BANKA, a.s.

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