New Zealand 2040: Changing PeopleChanging Transport<br />Global trends are impacting the delivery of transport solutions<b...
What moral, ethical, and social objectives do we adhere to?<br />Agreement on fundamental quality of life issues<br />Soci...
2040 and beyond<br />Inform<br />Assess<br />Inputs<br />Aging population<br />Identify risks<br />System design & Spatial...
Population Growth<br />
Inputs: Freight<br />
Input: Climate Change<br />Raw data: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/comparl/tempcom/clim/sessions/20070910/meinshausen_en.p...
Inputs: Transport Energy<br />
What do these inputs tell us<br />Climate, energy, and costs willaffect system resiliency <br />Infrastructure costs will ...
Transportation responses to demographic trends<br />
Aging Population: Likely Transport Trends<br />Less likely to purchase more efficient car or utilise newest technology<br ...
Aging Population: Travel Mode Choice<br />
Urbanisation<br />Forecasts from 2006 - 2031<br />
Urbanised: Transport <br />Increasing proximity to goods, services, and people<br />Increased competition for space<br />P...
Quality Transport – Chicken and Egg<br />You build it and they will come<br />Show me the money  (or the demand) <br />
Urbanised: Housing<br />No McMansions for Millennials<br />“Here’s what Generation ‘Y’ doesn’t want: formal living rooms, ...
Housing needs<br />Baby boomers are downsizing <br />Generation Y have different needs and preferences than their parents ...
transit-oriented
economically dynamic
job-rich neighbourhoods
Affordable</li></li></ul><li>Urbanised: Social Equality<br />Get 27% increase in financial housing stress<br />If 25% incr...
Households in drivable suburban neighbourhoods devote on average 24 percent of their income to transportation; those in wa...
Investigating Transport Options<br />Source: adapted from R. Tolley and B. Turton (1995), p. 63. <br />
Investigating Transport Options<br />Source: adapted from R. Tolley and B. Turton (1995), p. 63. <br />
Energy Efficient Transport<br />
Patterns of Density affect energy<br />
Transport solutions<br />Focus on provision of long-term, cost-effective infrastructure investments<br />Supply non-car al...
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  • Changing demographics of the NZ population mandate that we plan for these changes. Older populations, increasingly diverse populations, increasing needs of literacy, education, skills, etc. Costs are likely to increase for many of the items that we take for granted for today. What policies can be consider today to be important to reduce the effect of these costs on our society? Increasing costs and regressive systems can reduce overall social mobility and social equality – we need to appreciate how transport has a role to play toward a proactive solution.
  • The geographic distribution and international supply of fuels remains critical. NZ Imports nearly 50% of refined petrol and also imports the majority of crude for refining. Traded in US dollars on the international market exposes these trades to risks and potentially volatile market conditions. [source: greenstone energy FAQs]Additional risk is also the location where these fuels are produced. Currently, Middle eastern and North African countries produce 35% of global liquid fuel production.
  • Crystal ball gazing - Based on informed reading of global trends, occurring primarily in developed western societies, but many of these trends hold internationally – everywhere.
  • 2006 Census data published by Statistics NZ (2007) showed that the median income for people aged 65+ was $15,500, compared with $27,400 for all people aged 15–64 years. The median income for older women was about $2,000 less ($14,800) than for older men ($16,800).‘one way in which older people without transport cope is to stay at home more’ (p 20).NZTA Research Report 369http://www.nzta.govt.nz/resources/research/reports/369/docs/369.pdf
  • NZTA Research Report 369http://www.nzta.govt.nz/resources/research/reports/369/docs/369.pdf
  • Transport infrastructureThe mismatch between areas of employment growthand workers’ homes will significantly increase thenumber of commuters into Auckland City, especiallyfor workers from three Housing Management Area’s: North Shore, Waitākereand Manukau North.
  • NZ AA estimates that average current cost of car ownership is about $8,400 per annum for a small car and $13,500 for a large vehicle. Even small increases in transport costs will havea significant impact. If household transport costs increase by 25%, over and above the increase in household income between 2006 and 2026, The number of households experiencing financial housing stress would effectively increase by 27%, and stressed households as a proportion of all renters would rise from 40.1% in 2026 to 51.3% of all renters.
  • http://htaindex.cnt.org/mapping_tool.php#region=San%20Diego%2C%20CA&amp;theme_menu=1&amp;layer1=1&amp;layer2=30
  • Review the meaning and the use of Whole of Life and Good Value for Money terms.
  • Changing People Changing Transport2040 Slason

    1. 1. New Zealand 2040: Changing PeopleChanging Transport<br />Global trends are impacting the delivery of transport solutions<br />Jonathan Slason, PE<br />Transportation Engineer at Beca (www.beca.com)<br />The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Beca or any other organisation or agency. <br />Further detail behind the issues raised is available by contacting jonathan.slason@beca.com<br />
    2. 2. What moral, ethical, and social objectives do we adhere to?<br />Agreement on fundamental quality of life issues<br />Social Equality & Social Mobility<br />Inter-generational<br />Socioeconomic <br />
    3. 3. 2040 and beyond<br />Inform<br />Assess<br />Inputs<br />Aging population<br />Identify risks<br />System design & Spatial form<br />Urbanised<br />Probability<br />Manage<br />Population growth<br />Freight and export focus<br />Effect<br />Climate change<br />Fossil fuel cost increases <br />
    4. 4. Population Growth<br />
    5. 5. Inputs: Freight<br />
    6. 6. Input: Climate Change<br />Raw data: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/comparl/tempcom/clim/sessions/20070910/meinshausen_en.pdf<br />Sources:<br />Meinshausen Potsdam Climate Research, Denmark.<br />
    7. 7. Inputs: Transport Energy<br />
    8. 8. What do these inputs tell us<br />Climate, energy, and costs willaffect system resiliency <br />Infrastructure costs will increase<br />Economic activity will be increasingly urban centric<br />Population and economic activity will grow<br />Demand for mixed use, urban living with high amenity<br />Access and mobility- with less cost, carbon, and energy<br />
    9. 9. Transportation responses to demographic trends<br />
    10. 10. Aging Population: Likely Transport Trends<br />Less likely to purchase more efficient car or utilise newest technology<br />Less individual driving trips (and more likely to be involved in crashes)<br />More (short) walking trips<br />More non-driver trips  more public transport and taxi<br />Will often avoid making trips because of inadequate transport options<br />
    11. 11. Aging Population: Travel Mode Choice<br />
    12. 12. Urbanisation<br />Forecasts from 2006 - 2031<br />
    13. 13. Urbanised: Transport <br />Increasing proximity to goods, services, and people<br />Increased competition for space<br />Per capita energy and CO2 can reduce<br />Travel options increase with less distance required<br />Challenge<br />maintain quality mobility while enabling the accessibility that density provides<br />Mobility and Accessibility<br />
    14. 14. Quality Transport – Chicken and Egg<br />You build it and they will come<br />Show me the money (or the demand) <br />
    15. 15. Urbanised: Housing<br />No McMansions for Millennials<br />“Here’s what Generation ‘Y’ doesn’t want: formal living rooms, soaker bathtubs, dependence on a car.<br />In other words, they don’t want their parents’ homes.”<br />Demographic shifts and changing values will increase demand for pedestrian-friendly, mixed-use communities in both urban and suburban settings, according to John McIlwain of the Urban Land Institute.<br />
    16. 16. Housing needs<br />Baby boomers are downsizing <br />Generation Y have different needs and preferences than their parents did at their age<br />Both want homes in <br /><ul><li>walkable
    17. 17. transit-oriented
    18. 18. economically dynamic
    19. 19. job-rich neighbourhoods
    20. 20. Affordable</li></li></ul><li>Urbanised: Social Equality<br />Get 27% increase in financial housing stress<br />If 25% increase in transport costs<br />=<br />51% of all 2026 renters in financial housing stress<br />
    21. 21. Households in drivable suburban neighbourhoods devote on average 24 percent of their income to transportation; those in walkable neighbourhoods spend about 12 percent.<br />Put another way, dropping one car out of the typical household budget can allow that family to afford a $100,000 larger mortgage. <br />
    22. 22. Investigating Transport Options<br />Source: adapted from R. Tolley and B. Turton (1995), p. 63. <br />
    23. 23. Investigating Transport Options<br />Source: adapted from R. Tolley and B. Turton (1995), p. 63. <br />
    24. 24. Energy Efficient Transport<br />
    25. 25. Patterns of Density affect energy<br />
    26. 26. Transport solutions<br />Focus on provision of long-term, cost-effective infrastructure investments<br />Supply non-car alternatives<br />Implement demand controls on existing high priority routes to enable efficient movement of high value goods and services<br />Land use is crucial to unlock the full potential of public transport and active modes<br />NZ urban land re-development will lead the show<br /> Review of housing types and strategies for housing development and diversity of sizes<br /> Inclusionary zoning and density bonuses<br />
    27. 27. Solutions: Supply Provision<br />Infrastructure Provision<br />Funding commission for innovative finance<br />Whole-of-life investment decisions<br />Decrease climate change and oil availability risks to system<br />Review moral, ethical, and social objectives to provide appropriate infrastructure<br />Long-term thinking is needed – the infrastructure will be here to stay<br />Appian Way, Italy. ~2000 years old<br />
    28. 28. People<br />Services<br />Goods<br /> Point A to Point B<br />Freight and export focus<br />Aging population<br />Issues<br />Urbanised<br />Climate change<br />Population growth<br />Fossil fuel cost increases <br />Transport that enables a quality lifestyle <br />
    29. 29. Thank you<br />Jonathan Slason, P.E.<br />jonathan.slason@beca.comp. 09-300-9000<br />

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