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1. Making Leaders Successful Every Day

2. The Future of Mobile Development Julie Ask, VP, Principal Analyst @julieask Jeffrey Hammond, VP, Principal Analyst @jhammond May 22, 2013

3. 3 Entire contents © 2010 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Source: Flickr (http://www.flickr.com/photos/sashawolff/3793206523/sizes/l/) 9/12 400 M+ iOS devices sold to date Over 700M smart phones sold worldwide in 2012 1/13 Samsung Galaxy SIII: 96 million, iPhone 5: 54 million 5/13 Over 900 million total Android devices The Mobile Shift is upon us…

4. Mobile devices drive ~ 15% of web traffic Source: Adobe Digital Index (http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/digital-index/)

5. Mobile phones have accelerated the reach of information and services more than any other innovation < 1800’s 1800’s 1900’s Billion s Million s Thousa nds Commu nity 2000’s TIME REACH(ACCESS) Paper Radio Train Car Phone Internet + Broadband TV Mobile Phones with Internet Access Telegraph Mail

6. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 6 Key Questions › What are the key trends in mobile? › How will mobile development evolve? › How will mobile disrupt existing business models? › What steps should business leaders and developers take to capitalize?

7. © 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited Mobile Trends 1. Mobile platforms will be the catalyst for the next generation of connected experiences 2. Tablet commerce will outpace mobile commerce, but the comparison is irrelevant 3. Sophisticated analytics wrapped around big data will power next generation, smart apps 4. Mobile will play a leading role in engaging consumers in emerging markets

8. 1. Mobile platforms are the catalyst for new, connected experiences Consumer Platforms

9. 2. Tablet and phone use case will diverge

11. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 11 Today Future Track success relative to objectives. Use analytics to drive consumer- oriented results through relevancy. 3. Analytics wrapped around contextual data will power next-gen apps

12. –2 days • Change reservation • Reserve seat • View reservations –2 hr • Check gate • Departure time • Lounge access • Upgrade Flight • Arrival time • Food order • Movies • Wi-Fi +2 hr • Ground transportation • Lost luggage • Navigation + 2 days • Customer service • Mileage status • Reward travel • Upcoming reservations Contextual use of time will help prioritize home page content Airline example based on user time

13. 4. Adoption of mobile phones has exploded globally, and will continue $12B €2.7

15. © 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited How will mobile development evolve? 1. The focus will shift beyond mobile apps 2. Architects will need to modernize infrastructure 3. There will be no “magic bullet” approach to client side dev

17. Infrastructure integration will play a larger role, absorb more effort, and drive costs up February 2013 “2013 Mobile Trends For eBusiness Professionals”

18. • Customer service • Mileage status • Reward travel • Upcoming reservations Traveler mobile tasks Looking at the realities of context Flight- 2 days + 2h- 2h + 2 days • Book reservation • Change reservation • Request upgrade • Reserve seat • Check gate • Departure time • Lounge access • Upgrade • Arrival time • Food order • Movies • Wi-Fi • Baggage carousel • Ground transportation • Lost luggage • Navigation Flight reservation processes Flight timeline Travel business processes Customer loyalty processes Flight processes Baggage handling processes

19. A modern mobile architecture

20. 2. Architects will need to modernize infrastructure

21. Traits of A Modern Application Rationale APIs everywhere APIs must be asynchronous and consumable across multiple platforms Uses asynchronous communication Event-driven architecture improves performance by eliminating blocking at infrastructure layer Uses lightweight process communication frameworks (e.g. REST, JSON, node.js, Nginx) Reduces resource consumption, effectively uses smaller processing instances, smaller thread pools Composed of independent service endpoints Individual service can change independently, applications can continue to function if an individual service fails Use of in-memory DBs Reduces latency between mobile clients and infrastructure Services deployed on elastic infrastructure Makes is easier and cheaper to scale up and down on demand Sharded SQL DBMSes or NoSQL DBMSes Makes it possible to support millions of customers with commodity, scale-out hardware Uses dynamic languages in concert with languages like Java and .NET Simplifies programming constructs. Allow applications to evolve without recompiling services.

22. Architecture patterns evolve to exploit scale out MVC Data Source Filter (n) Data Sink Pipes and Filters Pipes (n +1) View ControllerModel Broker Message Bus Service Service Service Bridge Clients (Web & Mobile) Gateway

23. Domain REST API Screen-based REST API What powers Linked-in Mobile › Node.js for high scale asynchronous eventing to clients › Mobile server intermediates between client and LinkedIn platform › Screen API (JSON) – Domain API (Thrift) › Nginx for higher throughput of messages Cloud Native Elements iOS JS/HTML + Native Android Native Mobile Web JS/HTML Other Wrap JS/HTML Load Balancer Nginx Nginx Node JS Server Node JS Server LinkedIn Core Platform Mongo DB Logging Server Tracking Server MobileServer

24. The NPR API architecture › 43M pageviews in 2010 to 88M – 30M mobile › Following a COPE strategy › Appservers, Java, JSP, Struts › MySQL as data management layer › NoSQL XML repository for API staging › PHP 5 /Linux in the API handling layer › Memcache to accelerate Cloud Native Elements

25. 3. There will be no “magic bullet” approach Native Tools Performance Cost Agility Experience Connected Tasks Full JS Framework Hybrid Mobile Middleware Light JS Framework Responsive Web

26. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 26 Developers say “Yes” to all the above Source: Forrsights Developer Survey, Q1 2013 What approach(s) do you take for multiplatform development? 3% 31% 32% 42% 42% 66% None of the above I decide on a core set of platform(s) and maintain a portable common code base I use a hybrid approach that mixes native platform code and HTML/JavaScript as part of the same app I write native code on a platform I'm familiar with, then port to other platforms opportunistically I create apps using a cross-platform development tool I use HTML, JavaScript, and other Web technologies to support multiple platforms Base: 272 North American Software Developers building mobile apps or websites that deploy to multiple OSes

27. Mobile app strategies — Web Developing apps that use the device browser › Content centric experiences › “Glanceable” experiences › Situational applications › Use progressive enhancement, graceful degradation, or responsive design › Security, manageability concerns mirror regular web apps › Best for tablet-centered experiences

28. Responsive design is on the rise 43% 28% 14% 9% 15% Progressive enhancement Responsive design Responsive design plus server-side components (RESS) Graceful Degradation Don't Know “Which of the following design philosophies best reflect how you develop websites?” N= 579 developers using HTML 5 Source: 2013 Developer Forrsights Survey

29. Mobile app strategies — Light JS • Build on a philosophy of progressive enhancement • Quick to configure, basic set of commonly used controls – form driven • Good for connected apps, campaigns, and “glanceable” apps • Use CSS for styling • Small payloads = quick downloads Lightweight Javascript Frameworks Focus On Open Web Experience

30. Mobile app strategies — Full JS • Philosophy tends to favor a graceful degradation approach • JavaScript centric programming – larger API set • Richer set of controls – charts, support for SVG • Good for more complex connected apps, dashboards, reporting • More prescriptive programming models (e.g. MVC) Full Javascript Frameworks appeal to IT application developers

31. Development considerations 1. How extensive does offline support need to be? Rich media? 2. Do you need cutting-edge platform features like GPU acceleration or NFC? 3. Do you want to monetize your apps? 4. Are you more interested in progressive enhancement or functional APIs? 5. Do you need to support more than two platforms/form factors? 6. What staff capabilities will you match up against mobile? 7. How important are predictable costs? 8. What type of information are you building your app around? 9. How important is it to control the distribution of your apps? 10. What must be done custom versus using package apps? 10 questions to ask before choosing a client technology:

33. © 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited Mobile will transform business models many ways. Mobile will: 1. Offer deeper consumer engagement 2.Evolve into real-time interactions that depend heavily on contextual information 3. Alter pricing models 4. Up-end existing cost structures (lower barriers to entry) and disintermediate ecosystem players 5. Facilitate real time access to information and services for the billions

34. • Bar code scanning • Consumer reviews • Coupons • In-store navigation • Lists (e.g., wedding registries) • Loyalty • Promotions • Shopping lists In-store • Coupons • In-store inventory • Nearest “store” • Pricing • Promotions Competitor’s store • Coupons • How-to videos • In-store inventory • Research tools • Shopping list building • Store hours • Store location • Weekly circular Home Retail example based on user location 2. Intelligence added to location will dictate consumer experiences on mobile Image: Julie Ask

35. 3. Pricing can and will vary by location If a retailer knows I am home, they may offer a price assuming I won’t get in my car and drive. If a retailer knows I am in the store, they may price assuming I need the product now.

36. 4. Industries with complex or dated business models …. Taxi Medallion Insurance Dispatch Call IVR Waiting Waiting No Transparency

37. … will be susceptible to disruption as mobile phones eliminate elements … Taxi Medallion Insurance Dispatch Call IVR Waiting Waiting No Transparency

38. … and offer value add services • Value-add services include: choice of car, electronic receipts, car tracking, driver ratings/reviews, timely information, etc. • Vehicles are identified quickly without lengthy IVR interactions or “hold” times • Mobile-first company/service

39. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 40 5. Mobile phones offer unprecedented connectivity/computing power to billions › Mobile phones will have a profound impact on democratizing access to a wealth of services • People living in rural areas in countries without the physical infrastructure and wealth we know in the US will have access to care • Scientists can track, for example, the outbreak of a simple flu or even malaria • “Connected cameras” in phones will facilitate remote diagnostics › Impact/WIM? • Lower the cost of care • Improve the quality of care based on more accurate information • Separate “place” from care … patients do not need to be in the same room as care givers as often or for as many reasons

42. Business leaders and developers must shift their focus together.

43. How to approach mobile services design: 1. Think mobile first 2. Focus on convenience 3. Use feedback to rapidly evolve mobile services 4. Organize around mobile service delivery 5. Prepare for further technology disruption

44. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 45 1. Thinking “Mobile First” with context: › Deliver relevancy › Simplify tasks › Create a personalized services layered on top of the physical world

45. Think of this less as “Big Brother” watching http://www.flickr.com/photos

46. . . . and more like “Big Mother” helping

47. The line between creepy and helpful is thin, gray, and curvy.

48. Creepy or helpful? What your phone/Amex knows: • You have traveled to Mexico. • You have rented a car. • You are staying at the Westin. • The weather there is 92oF. “We suspect you are driving to Chichen Itza today. Our travel partner is offering a special price on tours if booked with your Amex.”

49. Creepy or helpful? What your phone/AMEX knows: • You have traveled to Mexico. • You have rented a car. • You are staying at the Westin. • The weather there is 92oF. “We see your card was just used to purchase tickets to Chichen Itza. Please enter your 4-digit passcode to confirm you have possession of your card.”

50. Systems of Engagement 3. Use feedback to rapidly evolve services Time to Safety Time to Certainty Time to Feedback Systems of Operation Systems of Record Lifecycle Focus

51. Adapt Agile principles for mobile › Use personas to drive insight › Create journey maps › Wireframes and prototypes build backlog › Feedback not requirements documents › Kanban boards to manage atomic demand › Analytics built into applications

52. Wow Enjoyable Functional Neutral Missed It Awareness Consideration Research Purchase Engagement 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Identify customer and stages of journey Indicate primary (and secondary ) devices for each step Describe each step in the journey, the customer’s needs and perceptions Indicate significant steps Persona: James A Multi-channel journey map

53. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec V 1.0 (MVP) V 1.2.2V 1.2 V 1.2.1 Regression + Emergency Patch New OS version released V 2.0 V 2.1 Features + Defect fixes Regular Internal Sprint Cycle + Beta Testing (2 weeks) Move toward “release on demand”

54. Services will evolve in sophistication Levelofmobile sophistication High Low Evolution of services over time Nothing Multichannel • Migrate services that are frequently used online and are mobile. Consistency Cross- channel • Mobile doesn’t have to be a holistic replacement for other channels or touchpoints. Enhancement Mobile- unique • New products, processes, and services Breakthrough Advanced contextualSimplicity

55. 4. Organize around mobile service delivery Single Mobile Champion Mobile Group “We have a mobile center of excellence. They are tasked with understanding the mobile ecosystem plus key trends, developing best practices and educating our staff.” Organization “It [mobile group] was great early on because we needed a small group to get attention. But then there wasn’t enough fire to make mobile go. Mobile need to be infused everywhere. We disaggregated mobile.”

56. 4. Organize around mobile service delivery › Create a strategy for mobile services overall › Obtain appropriate senior buy-in, budget, and governance › Create “service teams” that combine business, development, testing, and operations › Put a plan in place to handle big data/analytics › Focus on communities of practice over centers of excellence

57. 5. Prepare for further technology disruption › Today’s cutting edge device features will comm0ditize › New sensors will enrich context › Motion and voice will augment touch inputs › Moore’s law will enable more edge processing › Heads up interfaces will emerge › Larger touch surfaces (portable and static) › Wearable and connectables create local networks › Apps give way to platforms and services › Tension over economics of native/web vs. unique platform services

58. Phones will have a host of new technologies Technology Opportunity (examples) • 3D cameras • Biometrics • Conversational voice recognition • Near field communications (NFC) • Distance measured, gesture control • Security, access cards, ID • Verbal command (e.g., Siri) • Payments, ticketing, and information Controls • 3D displays • High-resolution displays • Micromirrors • Touch inputs (fine-tuned) • Augmented reality, video output • Media consumption, bar codes • Image projection, picoprojectors Displays • Accelerometers (detects motion/tilt) • Chemical sensors • Gyroscopes • Magnetometers • Microbolometers (infrared) • Pressure sensors • Phone orientation as control, pedometer • CO detection, food freshness • Gesture control, navigation, games • Directions — “Is it over there?” • Night vision, heat, light/dark • Height in buildings Datacollection Source: A.M. Fitzgerald & Associates, Yole Développement, and interviews with Atmel, InvenSense, and Sharp Electronics

59. In summary – Pulling it all together › Think mobile first – the numbers demand it › Think beyond apps – to modern applications › Think omni-channel – tablets /= smart phones › Think context – local, historical, and extended › Think convenience – provide relevant, simple, personalized services › Think horizontal – organize around service delivery › Think flexible – the mobile shift is just getting started!

60. Questions?

61. Thank you. Julie Ask +1 415 355 6002 jask@forrester.com Jeffrey Hammond +1 978 226 8886 jhammond@forrester.com www.forrester.com

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