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  1. 1. Making Leaders SuccessfulEvery Day
  2. 2. The Future of Mobile DevelopmentJulie Ask, VP, Principal Analyst@julieaskJeffrey Hammond, VP, Principal Analyst@jhammondMay 22, 2013
  3. 3. 3 Entire contents © 2010 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.Source: Flickr (http://www.flickr.com/photos/sashawolff/3793206523/sizes/l/)9/12 400 M+ iOS devices sold to dateOver 700M smart phones sold worldwide in 20121/13 Samsung Galaxy SIII: 96 million, iPhone 5: 54 million5/13 Over 900 million total Android devicesThe Mobile Shift is upon us…
  4. 4. Mobile devices drive ~ 15% of web trafficSource: Adobe Digital Index (http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/digital-index/)
  5. 5. Mobile phones have accelerated the reach of information andservices more than any other innovation< 1800’s 1800’s 1900’sBillionsMillionsThousandsCommunity2000’sTIMEREACH(ACCESS)PaperRadioTrainCarPhoneInternet +BroadbandTVMobile Phoneswith InternetAccessTelegraphMail
  6. 6. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 6Key Questions› What are the key trends in mobile?› How will mobile development evolve?› How will mobile disrupt existing businessmodels?› What steps should business leaders anddevelopers take to capitalize?
  7. 7. © 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction ProhibitedMobile Trends1. Mobile platforms will be the catalyst for the nextgeneration of connected experiences2. Tablet commerce will outpace mobile commerce, butthe comparison is irrelevant3. Sophisticated analytics wrapped around big data willpower next generation, smart apps4. Mobile will play a leading role in engaging consumersin emerging markets
  8. 8. 1. Mobile platforms are the catalyst fornew, connected experiencesConsumerPlatforms
  9. 9. 2. Tablet and phone use case will diverge
  10. 10. © 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction ProhibitedTablets are primarily used at home whilesmartphones are used everywhere
  11. 11. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 11TodayFutureTrack successrelative toobjectives.Use analytics todrive consumer-oriented resultsthrough relevancy.3. Analytics wrapped around contextual data willpower next-gen apps
  12. 12. –2 days• Change reservation• Reserve seat• View reservations–2 hr• Check gate• Departure time• Lounge access• UpgradeFlight• Arrival time• Food order• Movies• Wi-Fi+2 hr• Groundtransportation• Lost luggage• Navigation+ 2 days• Customer service• Mileage status• Reward travel• Upcoming reservationsContextual use of time will help prioritize home page contentAirline example based on user time
  13. 13. 4. Adoption of mobile phones has explodedglobally, and will continue$12B€2.7
  14. 14. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 14Key Questions› What are the key trends in mobile?› How will mobile development evolve?› How will mobile disrupt existing businessmodels?› What steps should business leaders anddevelopers take to capitalize?
  15. 15. © 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction ProhibitedHow will mobile development evolve?1. The focus will shift beyond mobile apps2. Architects will need to modernize infrastructure3. There will be no “magic bullet” approach to client sidedev
  16. 16. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 161. The focus shifts beyond mobile apps
  17. 17. Infrastructure integration will play a larger role,absorb more effort, and drive costs upFebruary 2013 “2013 Mobile Trends For eBusiness Professionals”
  18. 18. • Customer service• Mileage status• Reward travel• Upcoming reservationsTravelermobiletasksLooking at the realities of contextFlight- 2 days + 2h- 2h + 2 days• Book reservation• Change reservation• Request upgrade• Reserve seat• Check gate• Departure time• Lounge access• Upgrade• Arrival time• Food order• Movies• Wi-Fi• Baggage carousel• Ground transportation• Lost luggage• NavigationFlight reservation processesFlighttimelineTravelbusinessprocessesCustomer loyalty processesFlight processesBaggage handling processes
  19. 19. A modern mobile architecture
  20. 20. 2. Architects will need to modernizeinfrastructure
  21. 21. Traits of A Modern Application RationaleAPIs everywhere APIs must be asynchronous and consumable across multipleplatformsUses asynchronous communication Event-driven architecture improves performance by eliminatingblocking at infrastructure layerUses lightweight processcommunication frameworks (e.g.REST, JSON, node.js, Nginx)Reduces resource consumption, effectively uses smallerprocessing instances, smaller thread poolsComposed of independent serviceendpointsIndividual service can change independently, applications cancontinue to function if an individual service failsUse of in-memory DBs Reduces latency between mobile clients and infrastructureServices deployed on elasticinfrastructureMakes is easier and cheaper to scale up and down on demandSharded SQL DBMSes or NoSQLDBMSesMakes it possible to support millions of customers withcommodity, scale-out hardwareUses dynamic languages in concertwith languages like Java and .NETSimplifies programming constructs. Allow applications to evolvewithout recompiling services.
  22. 22. Architecture patterns evolve to exploitscale outMVCData Source Filter (n) Data SinkPipes and FiltersPipes (n +1)ViewControllerModelBrokerMessageBusServiceServiceServiceBridgeClients(Web &Mobile)Gateway
  23. 23. Domain REST APIScreen-based REST APIWhat powers Linked-in Mobile› Node.js for high scale asynchronouseventing to clients› Mobile server intermediatesbetween client and LinkedIn platform› Screen API (JSON) – Domain API(Thrift)› Nginx for higher throughput ofmessagesCloud Native ElementsiOSJS/HTML +NativeAndroidNativeMobile WebJS/HTMLOtherWrapJS/HTMLLoad BalancerNginx NginxNode JSServerNode JSServerLinkedIn Core PlatformMongoDBLoggingServerTrackingServerMobileServer
  24. 24. The NPR API architecture› 43M pageviews in 2010 to88M – 30M mobile› Following a COPE strategy› Appservers, Java, JSP, Struts› MySQL as data managementlayer› NoSQL XML repository for APIstaging› PHP 5 /Linux in the APIhandling layer› Memcache to accelerateCloud Native Elements
  25. 25. 3. There will be no “magic bullet” approachNativeToolsPerformanceCostAgilityExperienceConnected TasksFull JS FrameworkHybridMobileMiddlewareLight JSFrameworkResponsiveWeb
  26. 26. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 26Developers say “Yes” to all the aboveSource: Forrsights Developer Survey, Q1 2013What approach(s) do you take for multiplatform development?3%31%32%42%42%66%None of the aboveI decide on a core set of platform(s) and maintain aportable common code baseI use a hybrid approach that mixes native platform codeand HTML/JavaScript as part of the same appI write native code on a platform Im familiar with, then portto other platforms opportunisticallyI create apps using a cross-platform development toolI use HTML, JavaScript, and other Web technologies tosupport multiple platformsBase: 272 North American Software Developers building mobile apps or websites that deploy to multiple OSes
  27. 27. Mobile app strategies — WebDeveloping apps that use the device browser› Content centric experiences› “Glanceable” experiences› Situational applications› Use progressive enhancement, gracefuldegradation, or responsive design› Security, manageability concerns mirrorregular web apps› Best for tablet-centered experiences
  28. 28. Responsive design is on the rise43%28%14%9%15%Progressive enhancementResponsive designResponsive design plus server-sidecomponents (RESS)Graceful DegradationDont Know“Which of the following design philosophies best reflect how youdevelop websites?”N= 579 developers using HTML 5Source: 2013 Developer Forrsights Survey
  29. 29. Mobile app strategies — Light JS• Build on a philosophy of progressiveenhancement• Quick to configure, basic set of commonlyused controls – form driven• Good for connected apps, campaigns, and“glanceable” apps• Use CSS for styling• Small payloads = quick downloadsLightweight Javascript Frameworks Focus On Open Web Experience
  30. 30. Mobile app strategies — Full JS• Philosophy tends to favor a graceful degradationapproach• JavaScript centric programming – larger API set• Richer set of controls – charts, support for SVG• Good for more complex connected apps,dashboards, reporting• More prescriptive programming models (e.g.MVC)Full Javascript Frameworks appeal to IT application developers
  31. 31. Development considerations1. How extensive does offline support need to be? Rich media?2. Do you need cutting-edge platform features like GPU acceleration or NFC?3. Do you want to monetize your apps?4. Are you more interested in progressive enhancement or functional APIs?5. Do you need to support more than two platforms/form factors?6. What staff capabilities will you match up against mobile?7. How important are predictable costs?8. What type of information are you building your app around?9. How important is it to control the distribution of your apps?10. What must be done custom versus using package apps?10 questions to ask before choosing a client technology:
  32. 32. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 32Key Questions› What are the key trends in mobile?› How will mobile development evolve?› How will mobile disrupt existingbusiness models?› What steps should business leaders anddevelopers take to capitalize?
  33. 33. © 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction ProhibitedMobile will transform business modelsmany ways. Mobile will:1. Offer deeper consumer engagement2.Evolve into real-time interactions that depend heavilyon contextual information3. Alter pricing models4. Up-end existing cost structures (lower barriers toentry) and disintermediate ecosystem players5. Facilitate real time access to information and servicesfor the billions
  34. 34. • Bar code scanning• Consumer reviews• Coupons• In-store navigation• Lists (e.g., weddingregistries)• Loyalty• Promotions• Shopping listsIn-store• Coupons• In-store inventory• Nearest “store”• Pricing• PromotionsCompetitor’s store• Coupons• How-to videos• In-store inventory• Research tools• Shopping listbuilding• Store hours• Store location• Weekly circularHomeRetail example based on user location2. Intelligence added to location will dictateconsumer experiences on mobileImage: Julie Ask
  35. 35. 3. Pricing can and will vary by locationIf a retailer knows I am home,they may offer a priceassuming I won’t get in my carand drive.If a retailerknows I amin the store,they maypriceassuming Ineed theproductnow.
  36. 36. 4. Industries with complex or datedbusiness models ….TaxiMedallion InsuranceDispatchCall IVRWaiting WaitingNo Transparency
  37. 37. … will be susceptible to disruption asmobile phones eliminate elements …TaxiMedallion InsuranceDispatchCall IVRWaiting WaitingNo Transparency
  38. 38. … and offer value add services• Value-add services include: choiceof car, electronic receipts, cartracking, driver ratings/reviews,timely information, etc.• Vehicles are identified quicklywithout lengthy IVR interactions or“hold” times• Mobile-first company/service
  39. 39. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 405. Mobile phones offer unprecedentedconnectivity/computing power to billions› Mobile phones will have a profound impact on democratizing access to awealth of services• People living in rural areas in countries without the physical infrastructure andwealth we know in the US will have access to care• Scientists can track, for example, the outbreak of a simple flu or even malaria• “Connected cameras” in phones will facilitate remote diagnostics› Impact/WIM?• Lower the cost of care• Improve the quality of care based on more accurate information• Separate “place” from care … patients do not need to be in the same room ascare givers as often or for as many reasons
  40. 40. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 41Cellscope turns a cell phone camera intoa microscope for diagnostics
  41. 41. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 42Key Questions› What are the key trends in mobile?› How will mobile development evolve?› How will mobile disrupt existing businessmodels?› What steps should business leaders anddevelopers take to capitalize?
  42. 42. Business leaders anddevelopers must shifttheir focus together.
  43. 43. How to approach mobile services design:1. Think mobile first2. Focus on convenience3. Use feedback to rapidly evolve mobile services4. Organize around mobile service delivery5. Prepare for further technology disruption
  44. 44. © 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 451. Thinking “Mobile First” with context:› Deliver relevancy› Simplify tasks› Create a personalized serviceslayered on top of the physicalworld
  45. 45. Think of this less as “Big Brother” watchinghttp://www.flickr.com/photos
  46. 46. . . . and more like “Big Mother” helping
  47. 47. The line between creepy andhelpful is thin, gray, and curvy.
  48. 48. Creepy or helpful?What your phone/Amex knows:• You have traveled to Mexico.• You have rented a car.• You are staying at the Westin.• The weather there is 92oF.“We suspect you are drivingto Chichen Itza today. Ourtravel partner is offering aspecial price on tours ifbooked with your Amex.”
  49. 49. Creepy or helpful?What your phone/AMEX knows:• You have traveled to Mexico.• You have rented a car.• You are staying at the Westin.• The weather there is 92oF.“We see your card was justused to purchase tickets toChichen Itza. Please enteryour 4-digit passcode toconfirm you have possessionof your card.”
  50. 50. Systems ofEngagement3. Use feedback to rapidly evolve servicesTime to SafetyTime to CertaintyTime to FeedbackSystems ofOperationSystems ofRecordLifecycle Focus
  51. 51. Adapt Agile principles for mobile› Use personas to drive insight› Create journey maps› Wireframes and prototypes build backlog› Feedback not requirements documents› Kanban boards to manage atomicdemand› Analytics built into applications
  52. 52. WowEnjoyableFunctionalNeutralMissed ItAwareness Consideration Research Purchase Engagement1234567 891011Identifycustomer andstages ofjourneyIndicateprimary (andsecondary )devices foreach stepDescribe eachstep in thejourney, thecustomer’sneeds andperceptionsIndicatesignificantstepsPersona:JamesA Multi-channel journey map
  53. 53. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecV 1.0(MVP)V 1.2.2V 1.2V 1.2.1Regression + EmergencyPatchNew OSversionreleasedV 2.0V 2.1Features +Defect fixesRegular Internal Sprint Cycle + Beta Testing (2 weeks)Move toward “release on demand”
  54. 54. Services will evolve in sophisticationLevelofmobilesophisticationHighLowEvolution of services over timeNothingMultichannel• Migrate services that arefrequently used onlineand are mobile.ConsistencyCross-channel• Mobile doesn’t have tobe a holistic replacementfor other channels ortouchpoints.EnhancementMobile-unique• New products,processes, andservicesBreakthroughAdvancedcontextualSimplicity
  55. 55. 4. Organize around mobile service deliverySingle MobileChampionMobileGroup“We have a mobile center of excellence. They are tasked withunderstanding the mobile ecosystem plus key trends, developing bestpractices and educating our staff.”Organization“It [mobile group] was great early on because we needed a small groupto get attention. But then there wasn’t enough fire to make mobile go.Mobile need to be infused everywhere. We disaggregated mobile.”
  56. 56. 4. Organize around mobile service delivery› Create a strategy for mobile services overall› Obtain appropriate senior buy-in, budget, andgovernance› Create “service teams” that combine business,development, testing, and operations› Put a plan in place to handle big data/analytics› Focus on communities of practice over centers ofexcellence
  57. 57. 5. Prepare for further technology disruption› Today’s cutting edge device features will comm0ditize› New sensors will enrich context› Motion and voice will augment touch inputs› Moore’s law will enable more edge processing› Heads up interfaces will emerge› Larger touch surfaces (portable and static)› Wearable and connectables create local networks› Apps give way to platforms and services› Tension over economics of native/web vs. unique platformservices
  58. 58. Phones will have a host of new technologiesTechnology Opportunity (examples)• 3D cameras• Biometrics• Conversational voice recognition• Near field communications (NFC)• Distance measured, gesture control• Security, access cards, ID• Verbal command (e.g., Siri)• Payments, ticketing, and informationControls• 3D displays• High-resolution displays• Micromirrors• Touch inputs (fine-tuned)• Augmented reality, video output• Media consumption, bar codes• Image projection, picoprojectorsDisplays• Accelerometers (detects motion/tilt)• Chemical sensors• Gyroscopes• Magnetometers• Microbolometers (infrared)• Pressure sensors• Phone orientation as control, pedometer• CO detection, food freshness• Gesture control, navigation, games• Directions — “Is it over there?”• Night vision, heat, light/dark• Height in buildingsDatacollectionSource: A.M. Fitzgerald & Associates, Yole Développement, and interviews with Atmel, InvenSense, and Sharp Electronics
  59. 59. In summary – Pulling it all together› Think mobile first – the numbers demand it› Think beyond apps – to modern applications› Think omni-channel – tablets /= smart phones› Think context – local, historical, and extended› Think convenience – provide relevant, simple,personalized services› Think horizontal – organize around service delivery› Think flexible – the mobile shift is just getting started!
  60. 60. Questions?
  61. 61. Thank you.Julie Ask+1 415 355 6002jask@forrester.comJeffrey Hammond+1 978 226 8886jhammond@forrester.comwww.forrester.com