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Investment Strategy
A Snapshot – Apr’15
www.capitaladvisors.co.in
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Macro view – Global & India
• In the latest in a recent string of disappointing economic da...
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Fixed Income view – India
Long Term Rates: Positive
• US Fed has removed the word “Patient”...
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Equity view – India
• Indian Equity has performed well in last financial year while compari...
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View on Currency & Commodity – India
• We still remain positive on US
Dollar considering st...
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Contact Details
Jignesh Shah
Capital Advisors
+ 91 – 9820296989
jshah@capitaladvisors.co.in...
www.company.comwww.company.com
Disclaimer
This information has been distributed by CAPITAL ADVISORS or ‘the Firm’). Relate...
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Investment Strategy - Apr'15

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Investment Strategy for Indian Markets by Capital Advisors Team

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Investment Strategy - Apr'15

  1. 1. www.company.comwww.company.com Investment Strategy A Snapshot – Apr’15 www.capitaladvisors.co.in
  2. 2. www.company.comwww.company.com Macro view – Global & India • In the latest in a recent string of disappointing economic data, the Labor Department released showing that employment in the U.S. rose by much less than expected in the month of March. The pace of job growth slowed to its lowest level since December of 2013. This is watched closely as decision to raise Fed rates depends on overall growth in economy. • With relatively lower growth globally, interest rates across various economies are coming off. German Bond Yield continued to decline due to QE. German 10 year bond yield fell from 0.32% to 0.17% in the month of March-15. • In India, RBI surprised the market by giving a repo rate cut by 25 bps on March 4th 2015 outside of the meeting schedule. Headline CPI (New Series) for Feb recorded 5.37% which is slightly higher than expectations. The core CPI for Feb is at 4.1%. • Challenge remains on meeting fiscal deficit. However, lower global crude prices and continuing divestment shall help fiscal management.
  3. 3. www.company.comwww.company.com Fixed Income view – India Long Term Rates: Positive • US Fed has removed the word “Patient” from the recent statement and is now basing its future course of action on inflation & employment data; rather than time. • CPI is expected to be lower for calendar year 2015. • We expect RBI to cut rate by 50 bps over the course of next 12 months. • The RBI’s policy action will be gradual and data driven. Short Term Rates: Positive • RBI will ensure adequate liquidity to maintain overnight rates around repo rate. Generally, 1Q of FY yield curve softens as liquidity improves. • Short term curve would be flat to steepen (up to 2 years) on expectation of interest rate cuts.
  4. 4. www.company.comwww.company.com Equity view – India • Indian Equity has performed well in last financial year while comparing with global markets. In the month of Mar15, markets corrected on profit booking and increased volatility in oil prices on account of conflicts in middle-east. • We have downgraded Equity in later half of Feb’15 from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Neutral’ and we maintain the position, as we closely watch this result season and management guidance during the same. Source – Kotak AMC
  5. 5. www.company.comwww.company.com View on Currency & Commodity – India • We still remain positive on US Dollar considering strength in US economy vis-à-vis other economies. Also, expectation of higher interest rates in 2015 may keep dollar strong in future, but with slower pace. We Simultaneously, considering stronger foreign exchange reserves position, INR may remain in range of Rs.60 - 63 With below expected employment data in USA the expectation of rate hike is getting shifted towards last quarter of CY15 from mid of year. Accordingly Gold has firmed. We think this could be just short term rally but gold to remain in range of around 1140 to 1300 in near term. In INR terms also , Gold may remain range-bound. Source – Kotak AMC
  6. 6. www.company.comwww.company.com Contact Details Jignesh Shah Capital Advisors + 91 – 9820296989 jshah@capitaladvisors.co.in 05apr15
  7. 7. www.company.comwww.company.com Disclaimer This information has been distributed by CAPITAL ADVISORS or ‘the Firm’). Related financial products or services are available only to eligible investors who have sufficient financial experience and understanding to participate in financial markets and are aware of the risks and rewards of any potential investments related to such products. This document has been prepared by CAPITAL ADVISORS / Issuer of securities solely for information purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. The information on which the document is based and / or the document itself has been obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, and in good faith, but we have not independently verified such information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, are made as to their accuracy. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns. Investors should note that the value of securities or income may rise or fall and they may receive back less than they may expect to receive. The transaction may also be subjected to currency fluctuations. CAPITAL ADVISORS and/or any other related parties to CAPITAL ADVISORS group accept no liability and / or responsibility whatsoever for any consequential loss of any kind arising out of the use of this document or any part of its contents. CAPITAL ADVISORS and / or any person connected with it may act upon or make use of the material referred to herein and/or any of the information upon which it is based, prior to publication of this presentation. There is no minimum investment period, though we would recommend that you view your investment as a medium to long term one. All expression of opinion and estimates, if any, contained in this presentation (including the mention of specific stocks) constitute the Issuer’s judgment and view as of the date of the presentation and are subject to change without notice. The information contained is published for the assistance of recipients, but is not to be relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment by the recipient. This document should not be printed, reproduced, distributed, published or advertised in any manner without expressed prior approval of CAPITAL ADVISORS. In addition, the information is not intended for distribution to or for use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of a country, or have their domicile or registered offices in a country where the distribution, publication, provision or use of this information would violate applicable laws or regulations, or in a country in which CAPITAL ADVISORS would have to comply with registration or approval requirements. This Disclaimer is in addition and not in lieu of any other disclaimers, warranties that the Issuer of the securities/manufacturers of the products/Distributors may have for this product/information.

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