Replacing
Requirements
with Hypotheses
AgileUX NYC 2012
Feb 25, 2012
Josh Seiden
@jseiden

Me and my hashtags
Josh Seiden
www.proof-nyc.com
@jseiden
@proof_nyc
#leanUX
#leanStartup
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
2 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Internet Mouse
www.proof-nyc.com
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
3 License: Creative Commons Attribution-
Share Alike 3.0 United States

Internet Mouse
www.proof-nyc.com
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
3 License: Creative Commons Attribution-
Share Alike 3.0 United States

What are we talking about?
Requirements and hypotheses can both be
used to frame the work of teams.
- Example of a requirement: create an
Internet Mouse that people can use when
surfing the internet on their TV from their
couch.
- Hypothesis: we believe that people will pay
for a device that makes it easier and
more fun to surf the internet from their
living room couches in front of the TV.
www.proof-nyc.com
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
4 License: Creative Commons Attribution-
Share Alike 3.0 United States

For many teams, in many
contexts, hypotheses are a
more effective way to
manage your work than
requirements.
5

Extreme uncertainty
www.proof-nyc.com
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
6 License: Creative Commons Attribution-
Share Alike 3.0 United States

The problem with requirements
The business owners express needs as
“requirements.”
Problem: the team has no visibility to user/market
need.
Problem: “The business” does the
thinking, the design/dev team
does the implementing.
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
7 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Requirements vs. hypotheses
When you’re in production, building to a
known standard, you want requirements.
When you’re in an environment of uncertainty,
you want hypotheses.
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
10 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Why hypotheses are better

Why are hypotheses more effective?
They are understood to be only provisionally
true: in other words, they express
assumptions that need to be tested.
Hypotheses are answers put forth in the spirit
of a question.
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
12 Share Alike 3.0 United States

On questions...
“We get wise by asking questions, and even if
these questions are not answered we get
wise, for a well-packed question carries its
answer on it’s back as a snail carries its
shell.”
James Stephens, The Boyhood of Fionn
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
13 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Wisdom? Who cares?
“Working software is the primary measure of
progress.”
“Validated learning is the primary measure of
progress.”
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
14 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Reduce Inventory, Risk and Waste
Make a Get
design feedback
decision from market
Concept credit: @clevergirl
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
15 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Reduce Inventory, Risk and Waste
This is
going to be
BIG!
Make a Get
design feedback
decision from market
Concept credit: @clevergirl
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
15 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Reduce Inventory, Risk and Waste
This is No one
going to be clicked.
BIG!
Make a Get
design feedback
decision from market
Concept credit: @clevergirl
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
15 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Reduce Inventory, Risk and Waste
This is No one
going to be clicked.
BIG!
Make a Get
design 3 MONTHS feedback
decision from market
Concept credit: @clevergirl
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
15 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Reduce Inventory, Risk and Waste
This is No one
going to be clicked.
BIG!
Make a Get
design 3 MONTHS feedback
decision from market
3 HOURS
Concept credit: @clevergirl
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
15 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Less risk, more often
The old
way...
The new
way!
Concept credit: @clevergirl
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
16 Share Alike 3.0 United States

What is a hypothesis?

What is a hypothesis?
An hypothesis is a proposed explanation of
the way things work.
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
18 Share Alike 3.0 United States

What is a Hypothesis?
We believe that ________________.
...and:
We’ll know that we’re right when we see this
signal: ______________.
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
19 Share Alike 3.0 United States

What is a Hypothesis?
We believe that people will pay for a device that
makes it easier and more fun to surf the internet
from their living room couches.
...and:
We’ll know that we’re right when
1. People use our mockups without trouble.
2. People offer to pay when we offer to leave the
mockups with them.
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
20 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Techniques

Process
Replace requirements with hypotheses by:
1. Identifying assumptions
2. Expressing assumptions as hypotheses
3. Test the riskiest assumptions first
4. Break your hypotheses down into testable parts
5. Use MVP concept to test your hypothesis
6. Get out of the building
7. Lather, rinse, and repeat
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
22 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Method: Declare your assumptions
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden Share Alike 3.0 United States

Method: Declare your assumptions
What assumptions do you have?
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden Share Alike 3.0 United States

Method: Declare your assumptions
What assumptions do you have?
…about your customers?
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden Share Alike 3.0 United States

Method: Declare your assumptions
What assumptions do you have?
…about your customers?
…that if proven false, will cause you to fail?
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden Share Alike 3.0 United States

Method: probe deeply for assumptions
Who is the user? Who is the customer?
Where does our product fit in their work or life?
What problems does our product solve?
When and how is our product used?
What features are important?
How should our product look and behave?
How will we make money?
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden Share Alike 3.0 United States

Test your riskiest assumptions first
high risk
known unknown
low risk
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden Share Alike 3.0 United States

Method: Write the test first
We believe that ______________.
We will know we have succeeded when qualitative and
quantitative outcome. This will improve KPI.
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden Share Alike 3.0 United States

Method: Minimum Viable Product
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden Share Alike 3.0 United States

Method: Minimum Viable Product
What is the smallest thing we can make to test
our hypothesis?
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden Share Alike 3.0 United States

Method: Minimum Viable Product
What is the smallest thing we can make to test
our hypothesis?
The answer to this question is your MVP.
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden Share Alike 3.0 United States

An example
28

Case study: recent client
A web service that you plug in to your
commerce site
Provides a set of features to end users
Merchant gains insight because the widget
generates metrics
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
29 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Case study: recent client
The problem: they had a feature backlog, and
were not sure how to prioritize what to work
on next.
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
30 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Case study: identifying assumptions
To deal with “requirements” we built a story
map
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
31 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Case study: identifying risk
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
32 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Case study: the biggest risk
Do our customers
value our offering
enough to pay for
it?
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
33 Share Alike 3.0 United States

The value hypothesis
We believe that our customers value our
offering because:
1. Our widget adds a valuable feature to their pages.
2. Our widget generates traffic for them. Free offering
3. Our widget generates sales for them.
4. Our widget generates valuable data. Paid offering
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
34 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Case study: find the riskiest assumptions
1. Customers will value our high risk
widget’s basic functionality
enough to choose it over the 1
free competitors. 2
2. Customers will value our
analytics enough to upgrade
known unknown
to the paid version of our
product.
low risk
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
35 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Startup Metrics for Pirates
Awareness Learns about our product
Installation Installs widget on site
Values analytics enough
Purchase
to upgrade to premium
Doesn’t cancel after
Repurchase
30-day trial
Refers
Referral Friends
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden 36 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Startup Metrics for Pirates
We believe that if we show
Awareness Debbie how important [our
Learns about our product functionality] is she will give
us her email address.
Installation Installs widget on site
Values analytics enough
Purchase
to upgrade to premium
Doesn’t cancel after
Repurchase
30-day trial
Refers
Referral Friends
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden 36 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Startup Metrics for Pirates
We believe that if we show
Awareness Debbie how important [our
Learns about our product functionality] is she will give
us her email address.
We believe that our free offering
Installation Installs widget on site is strong enough that she will
install us over our competitor.
Values analytics enough
Purchase
to upgrade to premium
Doesn’t cancel after
Repurchase
30-day trial
Refers
Referral Friends
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden 36 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Startup Metrics for Pirates
We believe that if we show
Awareness Debbie how important [our
Learns about our product functionality] is she will give
us her email address.
We believe that our free offering
Installation Installs widget on site is strong enough that she will
install us over our competitor.
Values analytics enough We believe that Debbie will value our
Purchase analytics enough to pay for this level of
to upgrade to premium
service.
Doesn’t cancel after
Repurchase
30-day trial
Refers
Referral Friends
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden 36 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Startup Metrics for Pirates
We believe that if we show
Awareness Debbie how important [our
Learns about our product functionality] is she will give
us her email address.
We believe that our free offering
Installation Installs widget on site is strong enough that she will
install us over our competitor.
Values analytics enough We believe that Debbie will value our
Purchase analytics enough to pay for this level of
to upgrade to premium
service.
Doesn’t cancel after
Repurchase
30-day trial
Refers
Referral Friends
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden 36 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Hypothesis: activation/installation
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
37 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Hypothesis: activation/installation
Hypothesis: Our customers will value our free widget
enough to install it.
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
37 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Hypothesis: activation/installation
Hypothesis: Our customers will value our free widget
enough to install it.
Sub-hypothesis: they will install the free widget only if
the installation process is easy enough.
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
37 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Hypothesis: activation/installation
Hypothesis: Our customers will value our free widget
enough to install it.
Sub-hypothesis: they will install the free widget only if
the installation process is easy enough.
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
37 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Hypothesis: activation/installation
Hypothesis: Our customers will value our free widget
enough to install it.
Sub-hypothesis: they will install the free widget only if
the installation process is easy enough.
Problem: the installation process is too hard for our
customer. It is preventing us from measuring
customer behavior.
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
37 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Hypothesis: activation/installation
Hypothesis: Our customers will value our free widget
enough to install it.
Sub-hypothesis: they will install the free widget only if
the installation process is easy enough.
Problem: the installation process is too hard for our
customer. It is preventing us from measuring
customer behavior.
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
37 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Experiment one: will they install it?
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
38 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Experiment one: will they install it?
vs. Install with one click...
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
38 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Experiment one: will they install it?
vs. Install with one click...
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
38 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Requirement vs Hypothesis
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
39 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Requirement vs Hypothesis
Requirement: build an installer
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
39 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Requirement vs Hypothesis
Requirement: build an installer
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
39 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Requirement vs Hypothesis
Requirement: build an installer
Hypothesis: Our customers will value our free widget enough
to install it.
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
39 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Requirement vs Hypothesis
Requirement: build an installer
Hypothesis: Our customers will value our free widget enough
to install it.
Sub-hypothesis: they will install the free widget only if the
installation process is easy enough.
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
39 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Requirement vs Hypothesis
Requirement: build an installer
Hypothesis: Our customers will value our free widget enough
to install it.
Sub-hypothesis: they will install the free widget only if the
installation process is easy enough.
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
39 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Requirement vs Hypothesis
Requirement: build an installer
Hypothesis: Our customers will value our free widget enough
to install it.
Sub-hypothesis: they will install the free widget only if the
installation process is easy enough.
MVP: build a page that supports a concierge installer.
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
39 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Requirement vs Hypothesis
Requirement: build an installer
Hypothesis: Our customers will value our free widget enough
to install it.
Sub-hypothesis: they will install the free widget only if the
installation process is easy enough.
MVP: build a page that supports a concierge installer.
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
39 Share Alike 3.0 United States

The next hypothesis...
We believe that if we show
Awareness Debbie how important [our
Learns about our product functionality] is she will give
us her email address.
We believe that our free offering
Installation Installs widget on site is strong enough that she will
install us over our competitor.
Values analytics enough We believe that Debbie will value our
Purchase analytics enough to pay for this level of
to upgrade to premium
service.
Doesn’t cancel after
Repurchase
30-day trial
Refers
Referral Friends
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden 40 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Experiment 2: do they value analytics?
Requirement: build an analytics dashboard
Hypothesis: Our customers will value our analytics dashboard
enough to pay for it.
We’ll know we’ve succeeded when 6 customers respond to
our mockups by signing Letters of Intent.
MVP: Mockup of analytics dashboard.
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
41 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Hypotheses win...
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
42 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Hypotheses win...
A way to re-frame requirements
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
42 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Hypotheses win...
A way to re-frame requirements
 Every decision you make about your offering is a design decision.
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
42 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Hypotheses win...
A way to re-frame requirements
 Every decision you make about your offering is a design decision.
 Every design decision is an hypothesis.
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
42 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Hypotheses win...
A way to re-frame requirements
 Every decision you make about your offering is a design decision.
 Every design decision is an hypothesis.
 Declare your assumptions and test them.
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
42 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Hypotheses win...
A way to re-frame requirements
 Every decision you make about your offering is a design decision.
 Every design decision is an hypothesis.
 Declare your assumptions and test them.
 Entire team engaged in the feedback loop
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden
42 Share Alike 3.0 United States

Enjoy what you saw? Follow @jseiden and @proof_nyc.
THANK YOU!
www.proof-nyc.com License: Creative Commons Attribution-
www.slideshare.net/jseiden Share Alike 3.0 United States