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Futures strategies spotlight presentation CMTC by Joe Murphy librarian futurist


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Foresight strategies presented at the Christa McAuliffe Technology Conference in New Hampshire by Joe Murphy librarian and futurist December, 2015.
From a librarian to a foresight manager, Joe Murphy shares methods for planning the future through strategic foresight.

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Futures strategies spotlight presentation CMTC by Joe Murphy librarian futurist

  1. 1. Strategic Education Directions & Getting There Through Foresight Joe Murphy University of Houston MS in Foresight program. SFSU Exec. MBA Christa McAuliffe technology Conference. Manchester, NH. Dec, 2015
  2. 2. @libraryfuture Joe Murphy What if foresight factored in to design? Many Londoners disrupted by Tube strikes stuck with their change commutes after finding them more efficient despite what the Tube map optimized. The popular Tube map was not designed with future economic and social factors in mind. produced by Transport for London
  3. 3. Predictions @libraryfuture Joe Murphy The FUTURE Multiple alternative futures Approaches to the future Multiple alternative futures Multiple alternative futures
  4. 4. There are no rules about the future but are there laws? @libraryfuture Joe Murphy
  5. 5. @libraryfuture Joe Murphy The future is unknown, not unknowable
  6. 6. @libraryfuture Joe Murphy Mapping Art by Eileen Jerrett
  7. 7. @libraryfuture Joe Murphy unwrapping the present, the current era Art by Eileen Jerrett
  8. 8. @libraryfuture Joe Murphy
  9. 9. Questions in the context of technology in education and learning • 1. What current facts/variables dominate the discussion about technology in learning? • 2. Who are the important stakeholders in the education and technology ecosystem? • 3. Beyond the above stakeholders, who else is impacting the environment that should be considered? • 4. What basic past events began the current era of technology in learning? • 5. Name a few Trends (trends say “more” or “less” of something) of note in the arena. • 6. What are the most important and uncertain items facing us? • 7. What disrupting events, expected or not, may impact where the future is headed? • 8. What issues (conflicts/controversies/dilemmas and choices) whose resolution will impact futures. • 9. What new intriguing ideas, images, or perspectives are emerging? Joe Murphy @libraryfuture
  10. 10. STEEP QUESTIONS Joe Murphy @libraryfuture • What factors in the following areas have potential to impact the education ecosystem? • Political/regulatory - ______ • Economic factors - ______ • Social and cultural factors, the human and society side - ______ • Technology - ______ • Please name an accepted assumption about the future of education in a technological world. • Are there any weak signals that put that assumption at risk?
  11. 11. @libraryfuture Joe Murphy
  12. 12. History: era analysis & historiography @libraryfuture Joe Murphy
  13. 13. @libraryfuture Joe Murphy
  14. 14. @libraryfuture Joe Murphy Expected Normative Baseline
  15. 15. Alternative Futures @libraryfuture Joe Murphy The prototypical futurist tool
  16. 16. Preferred Future @libraryfuture Joe Murphy
  17. 17. @libraryfuture Joe Murphy Implications
  18. 18. @libraryfuture Joe Murphy
  19. 19. Strategic options, how we might respond to the issues What is the issue? _________________ Why is it important? _________________ What should we do about it? (actions required) _________________ How do we make it happen (resources required) _________________ Who “owns” it? (responsibility) _________________ @libraryfuture Joe Murphy
  20. 20. Design Thinking @libraryfuture Joe Murphy Art by Eileen Jerrett
  21. 21. Systems Thinking @libraryfuture Joe Murphy
  22. 22. @libraryfuture Joe Murphy Scenario planning
  23. 23. @libraryfuture Joe Murphy Six Pillars as another foresight method
  24. 24. Joe Murphy Spiral dynamics
  25. 25. Cross impact analysis Variable 1 Variable 2 Event 1 Event 2 @libraryfuture Joe Murphy
  26. 26. @libraryfuture Joe Murphy Art by Eileen Jerrett
  27. 27. @libraryfuture Joe Murphy Big questions
  28. 28. If we are now in the knowledge age, what is next? Joe Murphy @libraryfuture
  29. 29. Joe Murphy @libraryfuture What to ask/give futurists? Listen for implications when presented with “the future of X is Y” ask for: what you can provide as the industry insider (trends, scanning hits, ) to help guide a foresight framework? share assumptions, facts on recent historical era
  30. 30. Joe Murphy @libraryfuture studying our future ~ studying the past Island California we map the future that we expect m1327 Copyright © Stanford University. Creative Commons License. Image from the Glen McLaughlin Map Collection courtesy Stanford University Libraries.
  31. 31. A simple goal For us to walk away with an additional question or two to ask when considering our futures Joe Murphy @libraryfuture
  32. 32. Takeaways The future does not have to be a surprise The future does not have to be solely pushed externally When the future is a surprise - you have what it takes to deal with it (and guide it) Joe Murphy @libraryfuture
  33. 33. @libraryfuture Joe Murphy “What is a futurist?” Houston Foresight.
  34. 34. Joe Murphy My Story: Physics Degree -> MLISc – Uni Hawaii -> Yale Science Librarian -> Director Library Futures -> MBA -> M.S. Foresight My Habitat: Twitter @libraryfuture