1Q | 2013                 As of December 31, 2012                       ®Guide to the Markets
Table of Contents     EQUITIES                                                                  4     ECONOMY             ...
Page Reference                                                                   36.   Fixed Income Yields and Returns    ...
Returns by Style           Charts reflect index levels (price change only). All returns and annotations reflect total retu...
Returns by Sector                                                                                                         ...
S&P 500 Index at Inflection Points            S&P 500 Index                                      Characteristic         Ma...
Stock Valuation Measures: S&P 500 Index            S&P 500 Index: Valuation Measures                                      ...
Earnings Estimates and Valuations by Style            S&P 500 Index: Forward P/E Ratio                                    ...
Corporate Profits             S&P 500 Earnings Per Share                                                            Adjust...
Sources of Earnings per Share Growth             S&P 500 Year-Over-Year EPS Growth             Growth broken into revenue ...
Confidence and the Capital Markets            Multiple Expansion and Contraction                                          ...
Deploying Corporate Cash            Corporate Cash as a % of Current Assets                                               ...
Broad Market Lagged Price to Earnings Ratio            Lagged P/E Ratio – All U.S. Corporations            Ratio of market...
P/E Ratios and Equity Returns             P/E and Total Return Over 1-yr. Periods                                         ...
Equity Correlations and Volatility            Large Cap Stocks                                                            ...
Economic Growth and the Composition of GDP           Real GDP                                                             ...
Cyclical Sectors           Light Vehicle Sales                                                                   Change in...
Consumer Finances           Consumer Balance Sheet                                                                      Ho...
Corporate Finances          Corporate Financing Gap                                                                       ...
Federal Finances: Outlays and Revenues           The 2012 Federal Budget                                                  ...
Federal Finances: Deficits and Debt           Federal Budget Surplus/Deficit                                              ...
Tax Rates and the Distribution of Income & Taxes           Historical Average Maximum Tax Rates by Decade                 ...
Current Account Deficit and U.S. Dollar           Current Account Balance, % of GDP                                       ...
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Jp littlebook2013

  1. 1. 1Q | 2013 As of December 31, 2012 ®Guide to the Markets
  2. 2. Table of Contents EQUITIES 4 ECONOMY 16 FIXED INCOME 34 INTERNATIONAL 42 ASSET CLASS 55 U.S. Market Strategy Team Dr. David P. Kelly, CFA david.p.kelly@jpmorgan.com Joseph S. Tanious, CFA joseph.s.tanious@jpmorgan.com Andrés D Garcia-Amaya D. Garcia Amaya andres.d.garcia@jpmorgan.com andres d garcia@jpmorgan com Brandon D. Odenath brandon.d.odenath@jpmorgan.com David M. Lebovitz david.m.lebovitz@jpmorgan.com Gabriela D. Santos gabriela.d.santos@jpmorgan.com Anthony M. Wile anthony.m.wile@jpmorgan.com www.jpmorganfunds.com/mi Past performance is no guarantee of comparable future results.2
  3. 3. Page Reference 36. Fixed Income Yields and Returns Equities 37. The Fed and the Money Supply 4. Returns by Style 38. Credit Conditions 5. Returns by Sector 39. High Yield Bonds 6. S&P 500 Index at Inflection Points 40. Municipal Finance 7. Stock Valuation Measures: S&P 500 Index 41. Emerging Market Debt 8. Earnings Estimates and Valuations by Style 9. Corporate Profits International 10. Sources of Earnings per Share Growth 42. Global Equity Markets: Returns and Composition 11. Confidence and the Capital Markets 43. Global Economic Growth 12. Deploying Corporate Cash 44. Global Monetary Policy 13. 3 Broad Market Lagged Price to Earnings Ratio oad a et agged ce a gs at o 45. The Importance of Exports p p 14. P/E Ratios and Equity Returns 46. Global Manufacturing Wages 15. Equity Correlations and Volatility 47. The Impact of Global Consumers 48. European Crisis: Fiscal Challenges Economy 49. European Crisis: Sovereign Bond Yields 16. Economic Growth and the Composition of GDP 50. Chinese Growth and Economic Policy 17. Cyclical Sectors 51. Global Equity Valuations – Developed Markets 18. 18 Consumer Finances 52. 52 Global Equity Valuations – Emerging Markets 19. Corporate Finances 53. Emerging Market Equity Composition 20. Federal Finances: Outlays and Revenues 54. International Economic and Demographic Data 21. Federal Finances: Deficits and Debt 22. Tax Rates and the Distribution of Income & Taxes Asset Class 23. Current Account Deficit and U.S. Dollar 55. Asset Class Returns 24. The Aftermath of the Housing Bubble 56. Correlations: 10-Years 25. 25 Employment 57. 57 Mutual Fund Flows 26. Job Growth, Productivity and Labor Force 58. Dividend Income: Domestic and Global 27. Employment and Income by Educational Attainment 59. Global Commodities 28. Consumer Price Index 60. Gold 29. Returns in Different Inflation Environments – 40 years 61. Historical Returns by Holding Period 30. Oil and the Economy 62. Diversification and the Average Investor 31. Global Oil Supply 63. Annual Returns and Intra-year Declines 32. Domestic Natural Gas 64. Cash Accounts C 33. Consumer Confidence and the Stock Market 65. Corporate DB Plans and Endowments 66. The Dow Jones Industrial Average Since 1900 Fixed Income 34. Fixed Income Sector Returns3 35. Interest Rates and Market Performance
  4. 4. Returns by Style Charts reflect index levels (price change only). All returns and annotations reflect total return, including dividends. 4Q 2012 2012 S&P 500 Index Value Blend Growth Value Blend Growth 1,500 , 4Q12:Equities -0.4% Large Large 1,450 1.5% -0.4% -1.3% 17.5% 16.0% 15.3% 1,400 Mid Mid 1,350 3.9% 2.9% 1.7% 18.5% 17.3% 15.8% 2012: +16.0% 1 300 1,300 Small Small 1,250 3.2% 1.9% 0.4% 18.1% 16.3% 14.6% Dec-11 Mar-12 May-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Since Market Peak (October 2007) Since Market Low (March 2009) S&P 500 Index Since 10/9/07 Peak: Value Blend Growth Value Blend Growth 1,600 1 600 +2.3% Large Large 1,400 -5.5% 2.3% 12.7% 135.7% 128.7% 129.9% 1,200 Mid Mid 1,000 10.0% 11.4% 11.6% 180.9% 168.9% 158.1% Since 3/9/09 Low: +128.7% 800 Small Small 5.6% 8.2% 10.1% 161.2% 160.9% 159.9% 600 Dec-06 Mar-08 May-09 Aug-10 Oct-11 Dec-12 Source: Russell Investment Group, Standard & Poor’s, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. All calculations are cumulative total return including dividends reinvested for the stated period Since Market Peak represents period 10/9/07 return, period. – 12/31/12, illustrating market returns since the most recent S&P 500 Index high on 10/9/07. Since Market Low represents period 3/9/09 – 12/31/12, illustrating market returns since the S&P 500 Index low on 3/9/09. Returns are cumulative returns, not annualized. For all time periods, total return is based on Russell-style indexes with the exception of the large blend category, which is reflected by the S&P 500 Index. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Data are as of 12/31/12.4
  5. 5. Returns by Sector x es de . y e cr pl In ls og ar ls is ta ls ria ia m C 0 l .D .S es no ia 50 y nc co th st g er iti ns ns ch er du al na P le at il S& En Co Co He Te Te Ut In Fi MEquities S&P Weight 15.6% 19.0% 12.0% 10.1% 11.0% 11.5% 10.6% 3.1% 3.4% 3.6% 100.0% Weight Russell Growth Weight 4.6% 30.9% 12.0% 12.7% 4.0% 16.7% 12.5% 2.3% 0.2% 4.0% 100.0% Russell Value Weight 27.5% 6.4% 11.5% 9.2% 16.1% 8.3% 7.2% 3.4% 6.5% 3.9% 100.0% 4Q 2012 5.9 -5.7 0.1 3.7 -2.7 2.1 -1.7 -6.0 -2.9 2.7 -0.4 2012 28.8 14.8 17.9 15.3 4.6 23.9 10.8 18.3 1.3 15.0 16.0 rn Retur Since Market Peak -48.6 15.8 23.3 -1.4 1.4 37.5 45.1 6.7 5.4 -0.6 2.3 (October 2007) Since Market Low 180.8 142.6 98.9 171.1 85.6 218.3 103.5 103.8 84.5 136.8 128.7 (March 2009) Beta to S&P 500 1.43 1.16 0.65 1.20 0.95 1.14 0.53 0.71 0.50 1.30 1.00 β Forward P/E Ratio 10.9x 10 9x 12.2x 12 2x 12.6x 12 6x 13.0x 13 0x 11.0x 11 0x 14.9x 14 9x 15.1x 15 1x 16.2x 16 2x 14.3x 14 3x 13.2x 13 2x 12.5x 12 5x 15-yr avg. 12.8x 23.8x 18.4x 16.9x 14.7x 18.7x 18.1x 17.5x 13.6x 16.2x 16.7x P/E Trailing P/E Ratio 12.8x 14.6x 17.7x 14.6x 11.2x 15.4x 17.6x 40.9x 16.6x 18.5x 14.9x 20-yr avg. 15.8x 26.7x 24.1x 20.3x 18.1x 19.4x 21.1x 19.7x 14.4x 19.5x 19.5x Dividend Yield 2.0% 1.7% 2.2% 2.5% 2.3% 1.6% 2.9% 4.7% 4.4% 2.8% 2.2% Div 20-yr avg. 2.1% 0.6% 1.5% 1.8% 1.8% 1.0% 2.1% 3.8% 4.4% 2.1% 1.7% Source: Standard & P ’ R S St d d Poor’s, Russell I ll Investment G t t Group, F tS t J.P. Morgan Asset Management. FactSet, J P M A tM t All calculations are cumulative total return, not annualized, including dividends for the stated period. Since Market Peak represents period 10/9/07 – 12/31/12. Since Market Low represents period 3/9/09 – 12/31/12. Forward P/E Ratio is a bottom-up calculation based on the most recent S&P 500 Index price, divided by consensus estimates for earnings in the next 12 months (NTM), and is provided by FactSet Market Aggregates. Trailing P/E ratios are bottom-up values defined as month-end price divided by the last 12 months of available reported earnings. Historical data can change as new information becomes available. Note that P/E ratios for the S&P 500 may differ from estimates elsewhere in this book due to the use of a bottom-up calculation of constituent earnings (as described) rather than a top-down calculation. This methodology is used to allow proper comparison of sector level data to broad index level data. Dividend yields are bottom-up values defined as the bottom up annualized value of the most recent cash dividend as a percent of month-end price. Beta calculations are based on 10 years of monthly price returns for the S&P 500 and its sub-indices. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Data are as of 12/31/12.5
  6. 6. S&P 500 Index at Inflection Points S&P 500 Index Characteristic Mar-2000 Oct-2007 Dec-2012 Oct. 9, 2007 Mar. 24, 2000 Index level 1,527 1,565 1,426 1,600 P/E (fwd.) = 15.2x P/E (fwd.) = 25.6x P/E ratio (fwd.) 25.6x 15.2x 12.5x 1,565 Dec. 31, 2012 , 1,527 1 527 Dividend yield 1.1% 1 1% 1.8% 1 8% 2 2% 2.2% P/E (fwd.) = 12.5xEquities 10-yr. Treasury 6.2% 4.7% 1.8% 1,426 1,400 +101% 101% 1,200 +106% -57% -49% 1,000 1 000 +111% 800 Dec. 31, 1996 Oct Oct. 9, 2002 00 P/E (fwd.) = 16.0x Mar. 9, Mar 9 2009 P/E (fwd.) = 14.1x P/E (fwd.) = 10.3x 741 777 677 600 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Source: Standard & Poor’s, First Call, Compustat, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Dividend yield is calculated as the annualized dividend rate divided by price, as p y yp provided by Compustat. Forward Price to Earnings Ratio is a bottom-up calculation based y p g p on the most recent S&P 500 Index price, divided by consensus estimates for earnings in the next 12 months (NTM), and is provided by FactSet Market Aggregates. Returns are cumulative and based on S&P 500 Index price movement only, and do not include the reinvestment of dividends. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Data are as of 12/31/12.6
  7. 7. Stock Valuation Measures: S&P 500 Index S&P 500 Index: Valuation Measures Historical Averages Valuation 1-year 3-year 5-year 10-year 15-year Latest* Measure Description ago avg. avg. avg. avg. P/E / Price to Earnings 12.5x 11.8x 12.6x 12.8x 14.2x 16.7xEquities P/B Price to Book 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.5 3.0 P/CF Price to Cash Flow 8.5 8.1 8.4 8.4 9.7 11.0 P/S Price to Sales 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.5 PEG Price/Earnings to Growth 1.3 1.2 0.9 1.7 1.5 1.5 Div. Yield Dividend Yield 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.3% 2.1% 1.9% S&P 500 Shiller Cyclically Adjusted P/E S&P 500 Earnings Yield vs. Baa Bond Yield Adjusted using trailing 10-yr. avg. inflation adjusted earnings 10% 50x S&P 500 Earnings Yield: 9% ( (Inverse of fwd. P/E) 8.0% ) 40x 8% 30x 4Q12: 7% 21.1x 6% 20x Average: 19.0x 5% 10x 4% Moody’s Baa Yield: 4.6% 0x 3% 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Source: (Top) Standard & Poor’s, FactSet, Robert Shiller Data, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Price to Earnings is price divided by consensus analyst estimates of earnings per share for the next 12 months. Price to Book is price divided by book value per share. Data post 1992 post-1992 include intangibles and are provided by Standard & Poor’s Price to Cash Flow is price divided by consensus analyst estimates of cash flow per share for the next 12 Poor s. months. Price to Sales is calculated as price divided by consensus analyst estimates of sales per share for the next 12 months. PEG Ratio is calculated as NTM P/E divided by NTM earnings growth. Dividend Yield is calculated as consensus analyst estimates of dividends for the next 12 months divided by price. All consensus analyst estimates are provided by FactSet. (Bottom left) Cyclically adjusted P/E uses as reported earnings throughout. *Latest reflects data as of 12/31/2012. (Bottom right) Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data are as of 12/31/12.7
  8. 8. Earnings Estimates and Valuations by Style S&P 500 Index: Forward P/E Ratio Current P/E vs. 20-year avg. P/E 28x Value Blend Growth 11.8 12.5 15.2 rge 24x LarEquities 14.0 16.2 20.9 20x 12.7 14.4 16.7 Mid Average: 16.1x 16x 14.0 16.3 21.8 13.2 14.6 16.3 Small 12x Dec. 2012: 12.5x 14.2 17.1 21.3 8x 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Current P/E as % of 20-year avg. P/E S&P 500 Operating Earnings Estimates E.g.: Large Cap Blend stocks are 23.1% g g p Consensus estimates of the next twelve months’ rolling earnings cheaper than their historical average. 4Q12: $112.62 $120 Value Blend Growth Large $100 84.8% 76.9% 72.7% $80 $60 Mid 91.0% 88.3% 76.6% $40 Small $20 92.9% 85.7% 76.6% $0 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Source: (Top and bottom left) Standard & Poor’s, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Right) Russell Investment Group, IBES, FactSet. Earnings estimates are for calendar years and taken at quarter end dates throughout the year. Forward Price to Earnings is price divided by consensus analyst estimates of earnings per share for the next 12 months. P/E ratios are calculated and provided by Russell based on IBES consensus estimates of earnings over the next 12 months except for large blend, which is the S&P 500. Data are as of 12/31/12.8
  9. 9. Corporate Profits S&P 500 Earnings Per Share Adjusted After-Tax Corporate Profits (% of GDP) Operating basis, quarterly Includes inventory and capital consumption adjustments 3Q12: $24.36 $26 2Q07: $24.06 11% 3Q12: 9.6% 9 6%Equities $23 10% $20 9% $17 8% $14 7% $11 50-yr. avg.: 6.2% 6% $8 5% $5 $2 4% -$1 3% 02 04 06 08 10 12 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 Source: Standard & Poor’s, Compustat, BEA, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. EPS levels are based on operating earnings per share. Most recently available data is 3Q12. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Data are as of 12/31/12.9
  10. 10. Sources of Earnings per Share Growth S&P 500 Year-Over-Year EPS Growth Growth broken into revenue growth and margin expansion, quarterly 50% Margin Share of EPS GrowthEquities 40% Revenue Share of EPS Growth 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% 3Q94 3Q96 3Q98 3Q00 3Q02 3Q04 3Q06 3Q08 3Q10 3Q12 Source: Standard & Poor’s, Compustat, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. EPS levels are based on operating earnings per share. Most recently available data is 2Q12. *3Q12 data are Standard & Poor’s estimates. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. 4Q2008, 1Q2010 and 2Q2010 reflect -101%, 92% and 51% growth in operating earnings, and are adjusted on the chart. Data are as of 12/31/12.10
  11. 11. Confidence and the Capital Markets Multiple Expansion and Contraction Est. impact of a 10pt. rise in sentiment: +2.0 multiple points* S&P 500 forward P/E based on consensus EPS estimates 26x Forward P/E Consumer Sentiment 120 24x 110Equities 22x 100 20x 90 18x 80 16x 14x 70 12x Correlation Coefficient: 0.75 60 10x 50 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Sentiment & Real Yields Est. Est impact of a 10pt. rise in sentiment: +54 basis points* 10pt Real yield based on nominal 10-yr. yield minus year-over-year core CPI 6% Real 10-year Yield Consumer Sentiment 120 5% 110 4% 100 3% 90 2% 80 1% 70 0% Correlation Coefficient: 0.68 60 -1% 50 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Source: (Top) Standard & Poor’s, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Bottom) U.S. Treasury, BLS, University of Michigan, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Price to Earnings is price divided by consensus analyst estimates of earnings per share for the next twelve months. Real 10- year Treasury yields are calculated as the daily Treasury yield less year-over-year core inflation for that month. *Estimated impact based on11 coefficients from regression analysis. Data are as of 12/31/12.
  12. 12. Deploying Corporate Cash Corporate Cash as a % of Current Assets Corporate Growth S&P 500 companies – cash and cash equivalents, quarterly $bn, nonfarm nonfinancial capex, quarterly value of deals completed 30% $1,300 $1,600 Capital Expenditures M&A Activity 28% % $1,200 $ $1,400 $1 400Equities 26% $1,200 $1,100 24% $1,000 $1,000 22% $800 $900 20% $600 $800 18% $400 16% $700 $200 14% $600 $0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Dividend Payout Ratio y Cash Returned to Shareholders S&P 500 companies, LTM S&P 500 companies, rolling 4-quarter averages, billions USD 60% $33 $160 $30 Dividends per Share $140 50% $120 $27 $100 40% $24 $80 $21 $60 30% $18 Share Buybacks $40 20% $15 $20 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Source: Standard & Poor’s, FRB, Bloomberg, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Securities, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Top left) Standard & Poor’s, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Top right) M&A activity is the quarterly value of deals completed and capital expenditures are for nonfarm nonfinancial corporate business. (Bottom left) Standard & Poor’s, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Bottom right) Standard & Poor’s, Compustat, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data are as of 12/31/12.12
  13. 13. Broad Market Lagged Price to Earnings Ratio Lagged P/E Ratio – All U.S. Corporations Ratio of market value of all U.S. corporations to adjusted after-tax corporate profits for prior four quarters 35xEquities 30x P/E Ratios Avg. During Recessions 12.6x 25x Avg. During Expansions 13.9x December 31, 2012 13.1x 20x 15x Average: 13.7x 10x Dec. 31, 2012*: 13.1x 5x 0x 52 52 55 55 58 58 61 61 64 64 67 67 70 70 73 73 76 76 79 79 82 82 85 85 88 88 91 91 94 94 97 97 00 00 03 03 06 06 09 09 12 12 Source: BEA, Federal Reserve Board, Wilshire Associates, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. *The December 31, 2012 price is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management estimated based on the daily value of the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index. Data are as of 12/31/12.13
  14. 14. P/E Ratios and Equity Returns P/E and Total Return Over 1-yr. Periods P/E and Total Return Over 5-yr. Annualized Periods Quarterly, 1Q 1952 to 3Q 2011 Quarterly, 1Q 1952 to 3Q 2007 60% 60% Current P/E: 13.1 Current P/E: 13.1Equities 12/31/12 12/31/12 Implied Annual Return 15.1% Implied Annual Return 13.2% 40% Standard Error 17.2% 40% Standard Error 5.7% 20% 20% 0% 0% 5x 10x 15x 20x 25x 30x 5x 10x 15x 20x 25x 30x -20% -20% 20% -40% -40% Source: BEA, FRB, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Prices are based on the market value of all U.S. corporations and include quarterly dividends. Valuation based on long-term PE ratio. Note: Orange line denote results of linear regression with R-squared of 0.15 for 1-yr. returns (left) and 0.35 for 5-yr. returns (right). Data are as of 12/31/12.14
  15. 15. Equity Correlations and Volatility Large Cap Stocks Sovereign Debt Correlations Among Stocks Crisis 70% Great Depression / Lehman 60% World War II Bankruptcy 1987 CrashEquities 50% Cuban Missile Crisis OPEC Oil 40% Crisis Tech Bust & 9/11 30% 20% Average: 26.7% Dec. 2012: 34.4% 10% 0% 26 32 38 44 50 56 62 68 74 80 86 92 98 04 10 Daily Volatility of DJIA 3.5% Volatility Measure ’08 Peak Average Latest 90 DJIA (Left) 3.30% 0.72% 0.53% 3.0% DJIA vol. shown VIX (Right) 80.9 20.4 18.0 75 in 3-month 2.5% moving average 60 2.0% 2 0% 45 1.5% 30 1.0% 0.5% 15 0.0% 0 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 Source: (Top) Empirical Research Partners LLC, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Capitalization weighted correlation of top 750 stocks by market capitalization, daily returns, 1926 – Dec. 31, 2012. (Bottom) CBOE, Dow Jones, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. DJIA volatility are represented as three-month moving averages of the daily absolute percentage change in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Charts shown for illustrative purposes only. Data are as of 12/31/12.15
  16. 16. Economic Growth and the Composition of GDP Real GDP Components of GDP % chg at annual rate 3Q12 nominal GDP, billions USD 10% 20-yr avg. 3Q12 $18,000 Real GDP: 2.5% 3.1% 2.5% Housing 8% $16,000 10.7% Investment ex-housing 6% $14,000 $625 bn of 19.6% my 4% output lost pEconom $12,000 $12 000 Gov t Gov’t Spending 2% $10,000 0% $8,000 2% -2% 71.0% $951 b of bn f output $6,000 Consumption -4% recovered $4,000 -6% $2,000 -8% $0 -10% - 3.3% Net Exports 04 06 08 10 12 -$2,000 Source: BEA, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. GDP values shown i l l h in legend are % change vs. prior quarter annualized and reflect 3Q12 GDP d h i t li d d fl t GDP. Data are as of 12/31/12. 16
  17. 17. Cyclical Sectors Light Vehicle Sales Change in Private Inventories Millions, seasonally adjusted annual rate Billions of 2005 dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate 24 $150 3Q12: 61.3 22 $100 20 $50 18 Nov. 2012: $0 16 15.5 $-50 Average: 15.1 Average: 28.8 my 14Econom $-100 $ 100 12 10 $-150 8 $-200 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 95 00 05 10 Housing Starts Real Capital Goods Orders Thousands, seasonally adjusted annuall rate Th d ll dj t d t Non-defense Non defense capital goods orders ex. aircraft, $ bn seasonally adjusted ex aircraft bn, 2,400 $75 $70 2,000 $65 1,600 $60 Average: 57.3 1,200 1 200 Average: 1 384 1,384 Nov. Nov 2012: $55 861 800 $50 400 $45 Nov. 2012: 55.8 0 $40 95 95 00 00 05 05 10 10 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Source: (Top left) BEA, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Top right) Census Bureau, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Bottom left) Census Bureau, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Bottom right) Census Bureau, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Capital goods orders deflated using the producer price index for capital goods. Data are as of 12/31/12. 17
  18. 18. Consumer Finances Consumer Balance Sheet Household Debt Service Ratio Trillions of dollars outstanding, not seasonally adjusted Debt payments as % of disposable personal income, seasonally adjusted 15% $80 Total Assets: $78 2tn $78.2tn 2Q-’07 Peak: $81.5tn 1Q-’09 Low: $65.2tn 3Q07: $70 14.1% Homes: 25% 14% my $60Econom Other Tangible: 7% 13% $50 Deposits: 10% $40 Pension Funds: 18% 12% $30 Revolving (e.g.: credit cards): 6% Non-revolving: 14% 1Q80: Other Liabilities: 8% 11.1% $20 11% Other Financial Assets: 41% Total Liabilities: $13.4tn $10 4Q12*: Mortgages: 72% 10.4% 10% $0 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 Source: (Left) FRB, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data includes households and nonprofit organizations. (Right) BEA, FRB, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. *4Q12 Household Debt Service Ratio is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management estimate. Data are as of 12/31/12. 18
  19. 19. Corporate Finances Corporate Financing Gap Total Leverage Nonfarm nonfinancial corporate business, billions USD S&P 500, ratio of total debt to total equity, quarterly $1,600 240% Total Internal Funds $1,400 Total Capital Expenditures $1,200 220% Companies must $1,000 borrow myEconom $800 200% Companies $600 can fund internally $400 180% 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Average: 173% Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT / Net Interest) S&P 500 quarterly 500, t l 9x 160% 2Q12: 8x 6.8x 7x 6x 140% 5x 4x 3x 120% 2x 1x 4Q12 : 107% 100% 0x 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 94 94 96 96 98 98 00 00 02 02 04 04 06 06 08 08 10 10 12 12 Source: Federal Reserve, Compustat, Standard & Poor’s, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Top Left): All data is from the Fed’s Flow of Funds tables report Z.1, F.102 lines 9 and 11. Total internal funds equals retained earnings plus depreciation. Data are as of 12/31/12. 19
  20. 20. Federal Finances: Outlays and Revenues The 2012 Federal Budget Federal Outlays and Receipts CBO Baseline forecast, trillions USD 1960 – 2012, % of GDP $4.0 26% Total S T t l Spending: $3.6tn di $3 6t $3.5 Other 24% $482bn (14%) Borrowing: $3.0 Net Int.: $220bn (6%) $1,158bn (32%) my 2012:Econom Non-defense Non defense % 22% 22.8% Discretionary: $2.5 $620bn (17%) Other: $226bn (6%) Average: 20.5% $2.0 Defense: 20% $669bn (19%) Social Insurance: $841bn (23%) $ $1.5 18% Social Security: Corp.: $237bn (7%) $768bn (22%) Average: 17.9% $1.0 2012: 15.8% 16% Revenues Income: $0.5 Medicare & Medicaid: $1,165bn (32%) Outlays $804bn (23%) $0.0 14% Total Government Spending Sources of Financing 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source: U.S. Treasury, BEA, OMB, CBO, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. 2012 Federal Budget is based on the CBO’s August 2012 Baseline Scenario. Note: Years shown are fiscal years (Oct. 1 through Sep. 30). Revenue breakout is based on 2012 tax revenue estimates from the Office of Management and Budget. Data are as of 12/31/12. 20
  21. 21. Federal Finances: Deficits and Debt Federal Budget Surplus/Deficit Federal Net Debt (Accumulated Deficits) % of GDP, 1992 – 2022 % of GDP, 1992 – 2022 -12% 100% Forecast Forecast Adjusted CBO Adjusted CBO Baseline Scenario -10% Baseline Scenario New Year’s New Year’s 80% Compromise Scenario 2022: 72.8% -8% Compromise Scenario 2012 actual: 72.5% myEconom -6% 60% 2022: 58.3% -4% 40% -2% 0% 20% 2% 4% 0% 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 Source: U.S. Treasury, BEA, CBO, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. 2012 numbers are actuals Note: Years shown are fiscal years (Oct 1 through Sep. 30). Chart on the left displays federal surplus/deficit (revenues – actuals. (Oct. Sep 30) outlays). Federal net debt comprises all financial liabilities of the Federal government (gross debt) minus all intra-government holdings as assets. Deficit and debt scenarios are based on CBO budget forecasts from August 2012 and the CBO cost estimate for the American Taxpayer Relief Act, as passed by the Senate on January 1, 2013. Data are as of 12/31/12. 21
  22. 22. Tax Rates and the Distribution of Income & Taxes Historical Average Maximum Tax Rates by Decade Share of Income and Taxes by Income Level 100% Based on adjusted gross income and federal taxes, 2009 Income 80% Dividends Di id d 60% 5% to 25% 34.1% Wage Income 40% Capital Gains Top 5% my 31.7%Econom 20% Bottom 75% 0% 34.2% 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s Current Potential Tax Rate Changes 2012 and 2013 maximum federal tax rates under current law Taxes 50% 43.4% 2012 2013 40.0% 40% 37.9% 35.0% 30% 5% to 25% 23.8% 23.8% Top 5% 28.6% 20% 58.7% 15.0% 15.0% 12.4% 10.4% 10% Bottom 75% 0% 12.7% Wage Income Capital Gains* Dividends* Payroll Tax** Estate Tax*** Source: (Top left) IRS, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Wage income tax rates include employer and employee contributions to the Medicare tax. (Bottom left) IRS, The Tax Foundation, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Tax rates based on maximum U.S. individual income tax. Wage income tax rates include employer and employee contributions to the Medicare tax. *Includes recently enacted healthcare tax of 3.8%. **In 2011 and 2012, the payroll tax cut reduced the employee’s share of Social Security taxes by 2% and was allowed to expire for 2013. Rates shown include both employer and employee contributions to the payroll tax. ***For 2013, the estate tax exemption amount remained at $5.12 million. (Right) IRS, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Taxes paid are based on federal individual income taxes, which are responsible for about 25% of the nations taxes paid. Data are as of 12/31/12. 22
  23. 23. Current Account Deficit and U.S. Dollar Current Account Balance, % of GDP U.S. Dollar Index -8% Nominal trade-weighted exchange index: major currencies 115 4Q05: 4Q05 -6.5% 110 -6% 105 myEconom 100 95 -4% 90 Mar. Mar 2009: 84.0 85 3Q12: -2% -2.7% 80 75 0% 70 Mar. 2008: 70.3 Dec. 2012: 73.1 65 94 94 96 96 98 98 00 00 02 02 04 04 06 06 08 08 10 10 12 12 94 94 96 96 98 98 00 00 02 02 04 04 06 06 08 08 10 10 12 12 Source: BEA, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Source: Federal Reserve, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data are as of 12/31/12 and are reported quarterly. Data are as of 12/31/12. 23

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