1.
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
Jörg Osarek, Partner
www.its-people.de
November 2011
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 1

2.
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
Agenda
Liftoff Introduction
its-people and Jörg Osarek
Welcome to the Cloud Computing Age: We live in a science fiction world!
Learning Curve What we learned from the past
Where are we now?
Complexity wins and won't stop
The new Potion We need a new Magic Potion to beat complexity
Sample Projects
Organic Computing / Organic Information Technology
3 Ingredients 3 Ingredients for our Potion
1) Computing Power , 2) Organic Architecture
3) Organic Thinking and Acting = our Survival Strategy
Survival Strategy Business Survival Strategy: Organic Thinking and Acting
New Ancient thoughts on Control, Growth Maximazation and Competition
Broader Picture Organic IT is only Part of the Q-GRINS Paradigm Shift
A New MindSet for the 21st Century
Time for the next level
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 2

3.
its-people® auf einen Blick
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Copyright its-people® 3

4.
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
Introduction Jörg Osarek
IT
Manage-
Cloud ment
Computing Game
Changing Bio inspired IT &
Technologies Organic Computing
IT &
www.its-people.de Business
Co-Founder & Partner Strategy
IT Archi-
tecture
www.skilltower.de
Founder & CEO
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 4

5.
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
Welcome to the Cloud Computing Age
Fascinated with Science Fiction
(=Technology & Mythology since the 1970s)
Which fiction became reality?
Space ships leaving solar system yes
Everybody has a planetwide walkie-talkie yes
Space tourism yes
Planetwide computer network yes
Tablet computers yes
Portable universal translator (rudimentary) yes
Autostereoscopic Holograms yes
Warp drive not yet
Autonomous robots on distant planets yes
Self conscious machines not yet
...
Information Technology = Transformation Key Role
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 5
© Jörg Osarek - own work from the 1970s

6.
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
Welcome to the Cloud Computing Age
Today we live in a Science Fiction World called:
The Cloud Computing Age
While everybody is busy with that
I wondered:
What's the next
Megatrend after that?
With which Business Strategy
can you survive this coming age?
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 6
© Jörg Osarek - own work from the 1970s

7.
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
The Universe Learning Curve from the Past
You are
Complexity Here today.
beats simplicity -
and it won't stop
Sciences
growing! Technology
DNA
Big Molecules
Mythology
Bang Quarks Atoms
and others Culture
Life
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 7

8.
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
The Universe Learning Curve from the Past
Complexity
beats simplicity -
and it won't stop What can save us
growing! from the greedy
complexity monster?
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 8

9.
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
The new Magic Potion
What can save us
from the greedy
complexity monster?
A new Magic Potion that
enables systems to self
organize, self heal, self learn,
self optimize. Let's call it:
Organic IT or Bio inspired IT
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 9

10.
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
The new Magic Potion: widely used today
Organic Components used in our everyday lives:
■ E-Mail Spam Filters (Artificial Neural Networks)
■ Business-Intelligence-Systems (Data Mining)
■ OCR-Systems (Recognition of writing)
■ simple artificial characters and agents e.g. in Computer games (Bots)
■ Speech and speaker recognition (Service-Hotlines)
■ Systems that predict stock markets and the weather
■ Systems that pilot unmanned drone aircrafts
■ ...
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 10

11.
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
The new Magic Potion: Example Projects
■ AnimatLab: IDE for ALife and
Neural Networks with Physics Simulation
■ Blue Brain project since 2005
(École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Switzerland) : Goal:
Constructing a complete virtual brain in a supercomputer.
Success: simulating a rat cortical column.
■ (Cat-)Brain Simulator from IBM funded by DARPA with 40 Million US$.
http://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/hardware/ibm-unveils-a-new-brain-simulator
■ IBM's Autonomic Computing Initiative
■ China Brain project: 2008-2011
■ Triops of the Artificial Life Lab:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Wx6DvjndhA
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 11

12.
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
The new Magic Potion: Example Projects
Priority Research Program of German Research Foundation
(DFG 1183) 2006-2011 (challenges for informatics regarding creation of technical systems from 2015)
■ Controlled Self Organization@complex networked systems
■ OC Workshop on ICAC 2011 in Karlsruhe
■ overlaps in main areas with IBM's Autonomic Computing
■ Bio inspired IT-Systems: Hardware and Software
■ Self-x-abilities
(self configuring, self optimizing, self healing, self protecting, self explaining)
■ Principles: Robustness, Flexibility, Adaptivity
■ uses Agents, Artificial Neural Networks, Genetic Algorithms, etc. http://www.amazon.de/dp/3034801297/
■ Observer/Controller Architectures
Zentral Mehrschichtig Hierarchisch Verteilt
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 12

13.
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
The new magic potion: Areas of use & rulers of the game
Areas of use
■ intelligent systems managing
traffic, energy, water, it systems
■ virtual receptionist
■ virtual butler
■ self conscious robots
■ ...
Control and market dominance
■ who controls the intelligence
building blocks dominates the
market while producing copies at
no costs (software)
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 13

14.
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
3 Ingredients for our Potion
Computing Power
Organic IT-Architecture
Survival Strategy:
Organic Thinking and Acting
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 14

15.
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
Ingredient 1: Computing Power
With the same increase in performance as computers a
standard passenger car today would be able to transport
the passengers as many containers
of the Oasis as fast as as the
of the Seas comet Halley Colombo Express
© DannyCornelissen www.portpictures.nl - free to use for any purpose
Computers after 25 years:
131.000 x RAM
12.500 x processing speed,
6,25 million x as many storage
+ many extras
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 15

16.
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
Ingredient 1: Computing Power
Für ca. 1.500,- € 2010/2011
Standard PC:
8GB RAM
4x3=12GHz
1TeraByte HD
1985
+ Extras like
WLAN, GPS,
64KByte RAM Bluetooth,
0,96MHz 2 cameras,
166KByte microphone,
Floppy (Video)Telephone
pos.transducer
Internet via 3G Computers after 25 years:
131.000 x RAM
12.500 x processing speed,
6,25 million x as many storage
+ many extras
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 16

17.
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
Ingredient 1: Computing Power
Für ca. 1.500,- € 2010/2011 2035
Standard ???Dev:
Standard PC:
1 Mio. GB RAM
8GB RAM
150.000 GHz
4x3=12GHz
6,25 Mio Terabyte Space
1TeraByte HD
1985 ???
+ Extras like Device
WLAN, GPS,
64KByte RAM Bluetooth,
0,96MHz 2 cameras, + Extras???
166KByte microphone,
Floppy (Video)Telephone
pos.transducer
Internet via 3G Computers after 25 years:
131.000 x RAM
12.500 x processing speed,
6,25 million x as many storage
+ many extras
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 17

18.
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
Ingredient 1: Computing Power
Is it possible to create nested networked organic components
on a nano scale with 100 billion (100Mrd.) neurons and
70 trillion (Billionen) real time connections?
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 18

19.
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
Ingredient 1: Computing Power
Is it possible to create nested networked organic components
on a nano scale with 100 billion (100Mrd.) neurons and
70 trillion (Billionen) real time connections?
Neural Do-it-yourself Nanotech-Network.
Designation: Alexander
Yes, it is possible.
Building Time: 9 Months
We see 7 billion units
up and running
today on our planet.
Going Live: 07.07.2011
Status of training:
amazing neural abilities.
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 19

20.
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
Ingredient 2: Organic IT Architecture
Blueprint for an scalable, elastic Organic Cloud Architecture
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 20

21.
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
Ingredient 2: Organic IT Architecture
Blueprint for an scalable, elastic Organic Cloud Architecture
possible Development process
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 21

22.
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
Ingredient 2: Organic IT Architecture
Demo Time:
Human Pilot vs. Artificial Neural Network
on the classic Lunar Lander Game
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4GNzFAbk10A
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 22

23.
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
Ingredient 3: Survival Strategy: Organic Thinking & Acting
Two Questions first:
■ Can we fully control our complex
traditional IT systems today?
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 23

24.
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
Ingredient 3: Survival Strategy: Organic Thinking & Acting
Two Questions first:
■ Can we fully control our complex
traditional IT systems today?
■ So, do you believe we can fully
control those new dynamic, self
organizing, self healing, self
evolving and self defending
organic systems? (At least we
do have observer controller
architectures, right?)
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 24

25.
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
Ingredient 3: Survival Strategy: Organic Thinking & Acting
Will we be able to control
organic information technology?
My personal opinion:
Life
finds
a way!
DinoEggs: By de:User:He-ba-mue (uploaded by author) [CC-BY-SA-2.5 (www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.5)], via Wikimedia Commons
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 Jakub Hałun (Own work) , CC-BY-SA-3.0 (www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/) , via Wikimedia Commons
Allosaurus: By 25

26.
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
Ingredient 3: Survival Strategy: Organic Thinking & Acting
Facing these
dangers
Stop every progress in we have accept the challenge
our lives immediately
and return to the caves. 2 simple and prepare with and
organic thinking
a
options acting strategy.
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 26

27.
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
Business Survival Strategy: Organic Thinking and Acting
Exchange principles that don't work any longer
Less... More...
(Illusion of) ► Guide &
Control Influence
Growth & Profit ► Robustness,
Maximization Reserves,
Flexibility
Reckless ► Long Term
Competition Cooperation
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 27

28.
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
Organic IT is only Part of the Q-GRINS Paradigm Shift
The Q-GRINS key disciplines splice together
■ Quantum Physics
■ Genetics / Biotech
■ Robotics
■ Informatics
■ Nano Technology
■ Space Technology
Additional evolutionary changes happen in software,
hardware and the other Q-GRINS areas © Mike Kiev - Fotolia.com
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 28

29.
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
Organic IT is only Part of the Q-GRINS Paradigm Shift
In the 21st century there will be much more
massive change than in 20th century:
Technology changes life itself and its evolution!
We cross many natural borders while using yet
unknown leverages. This multiplies chances+risks.
To manage those new challenges mankind has to
move to the next mental level:
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 29

30.
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
Organic IT is only Part of the Q-GRINS Paradigm Shift
The next mental Level for mankind in 21st century:
Principles of the 21st century mindset:
Less... More...
(Illusion of) Guide &
Control Influence
Growth & Profit Robustness,
Maximization Reserves,
Flexibility
■ organic thinking (guide, reserves, cooperation)
Reckless Long Term
Competition Cooperation
■ boldness to develop and use new ideas
■ sustainability & purpose
■ wisely preserve our important heritage.
Let's subscribe to this
amazing adventure today!
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 30

31.
The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:
How to survive the Organic Computing Age
its-people®
Professionell
Partnerschaftlich
Innovativ
© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011 31