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Us dairy to world

  1. 1. BRINGINGSCIENCE Agricultural Experiment Station / Cooperative Extension ServiceTO YOURLIFECOLLEGE OFAGRICULTURE ANDHOME ECONOMICSThe U.S. Dairy Industryand International Tradein Dairy ProductsTechnical Report 42
  2. 2. Agricultural Experiment Station / Cooperative Extension Service • Technical Report 42 1The U.S. Dairy Industry andInternational Trade in Dairy ProductsThe U.S. Dairy Industry produced over $20billion in sales in 2002. New Mexico rankedseventh nationally in dairy products sales,contributing over $730 million to the stateeconomy in 2002 (U.S. Census Bureau,2004). The Dairy sector accounted forapproximately 11% of national agriculturalsales in 2002, and dairy is the top contributorto the New Mexican economy, accounting for37% of agricultural cash receipts in 2003. Theimportance of this sector to New Mexicowarrants the need for a comprehensive reportof industry issues and challenges, both from adomestic production standpoint as well as aninternational trade perspective.The Structure of U.S. Dairy ProductionLocationAlthough milk is produced in all 50 states,the bulk of U.S. dairy production is heavilyconcentrated in only a few states. In 2004,five states accounted for 52% of milkproduction and 10 states accounted for 71%of milk produced. These states are, in orderof importance, California, Wisconsin, NewYork, Pennsylvania, Idaho, Minnesota, NewMexico, Michigan, Texas and Washington.(NASS, 2004).There are 10 dairy production regions inthe United States.: Northeast, Lake States,Corn Belt, Northern Plains, Appalachian,Southeast, Delta States, Southern Plains,Mountain and Pacific (Table 1). TheNortheast, Lake States and Corn Belt areThe U.S. Dairy Industry andInternational Trade in Dairy ProductsEreney Hadjigeorgalis1generally known as the traditional dairyregions (Blayney, 2002). Idaho, New Mexicoand Washington State, which are located inthe Mountain and Pacific Regions,respectively, have displaced the traditionaldairy states of Iowa, Ohio and Missouri inrecent years. The importance of Westernregions as major sources of milk supplies isnow a significant feature of the U.S. dairyindustry (Blayney, 2002).The fastest-growing milk-producingstates are Idaho and New Mexico (NASS,2004). From 2000-2004, milk productionincreased 28% in New Mexico and 26% inIdaho. This increase is attributable to increasesin both cow numbers and production percow. Texas has also grown rapidly since 2002.1Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agricultural Business, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, N.M.Table 1: U.S. Dairy Production RegionsRegion StatesNortheast Maine, Vermont, New York,Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut,New Hampshire, Delaware, RhodeIsland, Massachusetts, New JerseyLake States Michigan, Minnesota, WisconsinCorn Belt Iowa, Missouri, Ohio, Illinois, IndianaNorthern Plains North Dakota, South Dakota,Nebraska, KansasAppalachian Virginia, West Virginia, Kentucky,Tennessee, North CarolinaSoutheast Florida, South Carolina, Georgia,AlabamaDelta States Mississippi, Louisiana, ArkansasSouthern Plains Texas, OklahomaMountain Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado,Utah, Nevada, Wyoming, Idaho,MontanaPacific California, Washington, OregonSource: Blayney, 2002
  3. 3. Agricultural Experiment Station / Cooperative Extension Service • Technical Report 422Milk production there increased 13% from2002 to 2004.Most U.S. dairy cows are Holsteins,which generally are more productive thanother breeds (USDA-b, 2002). In 2004,there was an average of 9 million milk cowsin the United States, with an average annualproduction per cow of 18,957 pounds. Milkcow operations totaled 81,440, with anaverage number of cows per operations ofjust over 110 (NASS, 2004).Farm SizeThe U.S. dairy industry is dominated bysmall, family operations. Over 70% of dairyfarms were family owned or familycorporations in 2002 (Blayney, 2002).However, in recent years there has been anincrease in the importance of large-scale dairyoperations. In 2004, 77.7% of productioncame from operations of 100 cows or more,up from 52.2% in 1993. Approximately 43%of herd inventory corresponded to operationsthat had 500 or more cows. Although theselarge farms (greater than 100 cows)accounted for nearly half of the milkproduced, they only represented 22% of alloperations (NASS, 2004). Several of thesedairies are multiple herd operations spreadover wide geographical areas (Blayney, 2002).Most dairy farmers belong to producer-owned cooperatives, which assemblemembers’ milk and move it to processors andmanufacturers (USDA b, 2002). Milk can besold as fluid milk or cream, or it can beprocessed into an array of manufactureddairy products. Sales of fluid milk productstypically represent only one-third of totalmilk supply (USDA-b, 2002). Half of themilk supply is used to produce cheese, ofwhich cheddar is the most popular followedby mozzarella (USDA-b, 2002).U.S. milk production has remainedlargely flat over 2002-04. There were largesurplus stocks of nonfat dry milk in 2003.Food aid shipments, subsidized exports andinternal issues are expected to reduce endingstocks by nearly a quarter, and production ofnonfat dry milk is also forecast to fall for asecond year in a row (USDA-FAS, 2003).Dairy Production in New MexicoNew Mexico has been one of the fastestgrowing dairy states. It is ranked seventh inthe nation for milk production and eighthfor cheese production (Dairy producers ofNew Mexico). There are currently about 180dairies in New Mexico, with the highestnumber in Chaves County. There wereapproximately 326,000 head of dairy cattlein 2004 (NASS, 2004), giving an averageherd inventory of 1,811 milk cows per dairy.Large-scale dairies clearly dominate in thestate. In 2004, 98% of herd inventorycorresponded to operations with at least 500head of dairy cows, while only 0.2%corresponded to operations with less than100 head of dairy cows (NASS).Milk cows in New Mexico produced anaverage amount of 20,583 pounds of milkper cow in 2004, which is above the nationalaverage (NASS). This is equivalent toapproximately 2,573 gallons of milk.Approximately half of all milk produced isprocessed locally into cheese (Dairy Producersof New Mexico). One of the largest mozzarellacheese manufacturers worldwide, Leprino, islocated near Roswell, New Mexico. Leprinoalone processes approximately 4.5 millionpounds of fluid milk per day. (NM agriculture).U.S. Dairy PolicyThe dairy industry in the United States, as inmost countries, receives a significant amountof assistance from the federal government.The major programs in place to assist thedairy sector include federal Milk MarketingOrders, a price support program, directpayments to producers, and the Dairy ExportIncentive Program (DEIP).Federal Milk Marketing Orders werefirst established under the AgriculturalMarketing Agreement Act of 1937 (USDA-c, 2002). They are intended to help establish
  4. 4. Agricultural Experiment Station / Cooperative Extension Service • Technical Report 42 3orderly marketing conditions for the benefitof both producers and consumers and arebased on a classified pricing system andrevenue pooling (USDA-c, 2002). The firstreform of these orders came with the 1996Farm Act, which reduced the total numberof orders from 33 to 11. It also establishednew methods for determining class pricesand standardized the language betweenorders (USDA-c, 2002).The dairy price support program wasinstituted under the Agricultural Act of 1949(USDA-c, 2002). Under this program theCommodity Credit Corporation has agreedto purchase at current support prices anybutter, cheddar cheese or nonfat dry milkthat meets specifications (USDA-c, 2002).The price support program was originallyslated to end at the end of 1999 but wastwice extended through 2001. Under the 2002Farm Act, the program has been extended athird time through 2007. Elimination of thedairy price support program is a necessarycondition under the Uruguay Roundagreement (USDA-c, 2002).The Dairy Export Incentive Program(DEIP) has played an important part in themilk price support system since the 1990Farm Act. The DEIP effectively pays asubsidy to dairy product exporters by payingthem cash bonuses that allow them topurchase at higher U.S. prices and sell atlower international prices. These bonusesapply to exports of nonfat dry milk, butterfatand certain cheeses (USDA-c, 2002).International Dairy TradeOnly 5% of the total cow’s milk producedglobally is traded on international markets(USDA-a, 2002). Dairy trade is primarily inbutter, cheese and dry milk powders, withlimited trade in fluid milk products, icecream, yogurt and dry whey products.Trade Agreements Governing Dairy ProductsThe Agreement on Agriculture of the UruguayRound is the principal document governingmultilateral trade liberalization in dairyproducts. For a short time, trade in dairyproducts was also regulated by theInternational Dairy Agreement, which enteredinto effect on January 1, 1980, after the TokyoRound of Multilateral Trade Negotiations.Signatories to the International DairyAgreement included Argentina, Bulgaria,Chad, the EC(15), Japan, New Zealand,Norway, Romania, Switzerland and Uruguay(World Trade Organization [WTO], 1997).The agreement was terminated in 1997 due tothe establishment of the WTO Committeeson Agriculture and Sanitary and PhytosanitaryMeasures, which made the International DairyAgreement redundant (WTO, 1997).Bilaterally, the most important tradeagreements that have included dairy productshave been the NAFTA agreement, the CloserEconomic Relations (CER) Agreementbetween Australia and New Zealand, and theU.S. and Australia Free Trade Agreement.Under the NAFTA agreement, all tariffshave been phased out for trade with Mexico.The Canadian portion of the NAFTAagreement excluded dairy products. TheNAFTA agreement entered into force onJanuary 1, 1994. Under the CER Agreement,all dairy trade was liberalized betweenAustralia and New Zealand.The U.S.–Australia Free Trade Agreemententered into force on January 1, 2005. Underthis agreement, Australia guarantees duty-freetariff treatment for all U.S. dairy products.The U.S. agreed to eliminate all tariffs ondairy products that had previously beengoverned by tariff-rate quotas under theUruguay Round. Australia also gains additionalaccess to the U.S. market through theestablishment of several duty free tariff-ratequotas on dairy products not previouslyimported from Australia. These new duty-freequotas will grow by 3 to 6 percent per year andall tariffs will be completely phased out overan 18-year period. The over-quota and safeguardduty rates on all dairy products, however,remain unchanged (USDA-FAS-b, 2004).
  5. 5. Agricultural Experiment Station / Cooperative Extension Service • Technical Report 424Trade Disputes and Contentious IssuesUnder the Agreement of Agriculture of theUruguay Round (UR) in 1994, membercountries agreed to limit both the volume andvalue of subsidized exports, with varyingrestrictions placed on different countries. In1998, the United States and New Zealandfiled a formal dispute with the WTO thatclaimed that Canada was exceeding its exportsubsidy limits under the UR. The WTO ruledin favor of the United States and Canada in1999. In an effort to comply with thisdirective, Canada eliminated its direct dairyexport subsidies and replaced them with a newexport program in each province. TheCommercial Export Milk (CEM) programallowed Canadian processors to purchaselower-priced milk and use it to make cheeseand other dairy products for export (USTRPress Release, 2002). The United Statesargued, and the WTO agreed, that thegovernmental provision of lower priced milkto processors for export constituted an illegalexport subsidy. On April 30, 2003, Canadaeliminated the CEM program, and as ofAugust 1, 2003, Canada has eliminated allsubsidized dairy exports to the United States,and limited such exports to other foreignmarkets (Agriview Online, 2003).A second contentious issue on the tradefront in dairy products was the 2003introduction of a bill in the U.S. Congress,the Milk Import Tariff Equity Act, whichincluded milk protein concentrates (MPC)and casein under the current dairy importquota structure. The bill was re-introducedin February of 2005 as HR 521, and iscurrently in the House Subcommittee onTrade. MPC and casein are not produced inthe United States; they are imported chieflyfor use in highly processed cheese productsand specialized sports nutrition products.Use of MPC in other dairy products isrestricted by the FDA. The controversysurrounding MPC imports is that they serveas a lower-cost substitute for nonfat dry milkin certain processed dairy products. Thus,MPCs displace nonfat dry milk, which mustbe later bought back by the government’sDairy Price Support Program.U.S. Dairy Tariff Rate QuotasPrior to the Uruguay Round Agreement, theUnited States operated a system of dairyimport quotas. These have all been replacedby tariff rate quotas. While a quota limits thetotal amount of a product that may enter animporting country in a given year, a tariffrate quota establishes a two-tier tariff forimports. Imports below a pre-specified quotalimit enter the country duty free or at areduced tariff rate, while imports above thislimit enter at a higher rate, which is generallyprohibitive. See Table 2 for tariff-rate quotasfor major categories of dairy products.Production and Export Supplyof Dairy ProductsMajor exporters of dairy products worldwideinclude the European Union (EU), NewZealand and Australia. Milk output in the EUis controlled by quotas and has remainedrelatively stable (USDA-FAS, 2003). Thisquota regime has been extended until 2014-15, following the EU’s recent Mid-TermReview, which concluded in July 2003(USDA-FAS, 2003). It is expected that surplusmilk supplies in the EU will be used to supplygrowing cheese production with a consequentdecrease in the EU’s production of butter andnonfat dry milk (USDA-FAS, 2003).EU exports of cheese and nonfat dry milkare subsidized; therefore, they are limited bythe Uruguay Round Agreement. Currentlythe EU exports approximately 60% of its milkpowder via export subsidy programs, and islimited to subsidized cheese exports of321,300 tons. However, a growing portion ofpremium quality cheeses are exported withoutany aid (USDA-FAS, 2003).While milk production in the EU hasbeen stable, New Zealand milk productionhas been increasing. Most of New Zealand’sproduction is controlled by Fronterra
  6. 6. Agricultural Experiment Station / Cooperative Extension Service • Technical Report 42 5Dairies. Fronterra has been reducinginventory and tightening export supply in anattempt to lower their supply chain costs(USDA-FAS-d, 2004). New Zealand exportsof butter are expected to decrease by 2.6%for the 2004-05 season to 381,000 tons.Cheese production is expected to increase2% to 319,000 tons in 2004-05, but exportswill remain unchanged from the previousyear. Although milk powder production isexpected to increase on the order of 4.7 to4.9% in 2004-05, exports are forecasted toincrease by less than 4%. New Zealand isexpected to be the main beneficiary of theexpanding world market for whole milkpowder since the EU is constrained by theUruguay Round limits on subsidized exportsto 240,000 tons, and Australian productionis still recovering from the 2002-03 drought(USDA-FAS-c, 2004).For the 2004-05 season, Australian milkproduction is forecast to increase by only1%, 6.4% below the pre-drought levelattained in 2001-02 (USDA-FAS, 2003).Recent data indicate, however, that waterconditions have improved for Australiandairy farmers, and two-thirds report thatthey have returned to pre-droughtproduction levels. Heavy rainfall wasreported in November 2004 in Victoria,where most of Australia’s milk production isconcentrated. Milk exports, however, areforecast to remain unchanged from 2004-05,as domestic consumption has increased by1.5% (USDA-FAS-c, 2004).High world prices for nonfat dry milkbenefited the United States in 2004. U.S.exports of nonfat dry milk powder increasedby more than 77% in 2004, but at the cost ofa reduction in stocks on the order of 43% toTable 2: Tariff-Rate Quota Limits and Tariff RatesProduct TRQ Limit Within Limit Tariff Out of Limit Tariff(US$/kg) (US$/kg)Fluid Milk, 1-6% Fat (liters) 11,356,236 0.04 0.15Fluid Milk and Cream 6-45% 6,694,840 0.032 0.772Fat, Sour Cream <45% Fat (liters)Fluid Milk and Cream and 6,997,000 0.123 1.541 to 1.646Sour Cream >45% Fat, ButterMilk Powder < 3% Fat 5,261,000 0.033 0.865Milk Powder 3-35% Fat, 3,321,300 0.068 1.092Dried Sour Cream 6-35% FatWhole Milk Powder and 99,500 0.137 1.556Dried ButtermilkEvaporated and Condensed Milk 6,857,300 0.022 to 0.033 0.313 to 0.496Dried Buttermilk and Dried Whey 296,000 0.033 0.876Dairy Spreads and AMF Butter 6,080,500 0.154 1.996Substitutes and Butter OilFresh Cheeses 48,327,859 10% 1.509Blue Mold Cheese 29,891,001 10-20% 2.269(Other than Stilton)Cheddar Cheese 13,506,306 10-16% 1.227American Type Cheese 3,772,556 10-20% 1.055Edam and Gouda Cheese 7,066,402 10-15% 1.803Italian Type Cheese 13,731,064 7.5-25% 2.146Swiss, Emmantaler and 8,104,833 6.4-10% 1.386Gruyere CheeseCheese with <0.5% fat and 5,724,907 10% 1.128margarine cheeseSources: Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States, 2004; U.S. Dairy Product Trade: ModelingApproaches and the Impact of New Formulations.
  7. 7. Agricultural Experiment Station / Cooperative Extension Service • Technical Report 426250,000 tons. (USDA-FAS 2004). Whereasthe support price for nonfat dry milk is fixedat $1,764/MT by the Commodity CreditCorporation, world prices have hoveredaround $2,150-$2,350/MT. Nonfat dry milkis currently being exported without anysubsidies so it is not subjected to UruguayRound limits on such exports.Consumption and Import DemandImport demand for cheese remains fairlystrong in key markets such as Japan andRussia. In Russia, in particular, cheeseimports have expanded considerably,doubling in volume from 2002-04. Giventhat Russian milk production has beendeclining while disposable income has beengrowing, cheese imports demand will mostlikely continue to rise (USDA-FAS-f, 2004).Russia is also one of the top butter importmarkets of the world (USDA-FAS, 2003).For 2004, import demand for milkpowders increased in Algeria, where 47% ofdomestic milk consumption is reconstitutedmilk (USDA-FAS-g, 2004). Algeria hasinadequate domestic milk production anddepends on imports to meet demands.Algerian imports of dairy products accountfor approximately 22% of total agriculturalproduct imports (USDA-FAS-g, 2004).China is an emerging market for milkpowder that is expanding rapidly. Chineseimports of whole-milk powder are expected toincrease by 24% in 2005 to reach 113,000tons. The increased demand is attributed todemand from higher income groups anddecreased confidence in the safety of domesticmilk supplies after 12 cases of infant deathwere reported due to contaminated milkpowder (USDA-FAS-e, 2004).World Dairy Product PricesDairy prices for major dairy commoditieshave been climbing since mid-2002 dueprimarily to the weakening U.S. dollar, theAustralian drought and a rebound of majoreconomies (USDA-FAS, 2003). Reducedsupplies, coupled with increasing incomes arelikely to stimulate import demand and keepprices relatively strong in 2005.U.S. Export and Import Markets forDairy ProductsSince 2002, the United States has been a netimporter of dairy products, primarily cheese.A substantial percentage of U.S. imports ofdairy products originate in the EU, whichaccounted for 33% of all U.S. dairy productimports in 2004 (fig. 1). The EU is followedby New Zealand (19%), Canada (13%) andto a lesser degree China (6%) and Mexico(5%). U.S. imports from both New Zealandand Canada have increased dramatically since1997. Imports in 2003 from the EU wereapproximately 40% higher than 1997 levels,and imports from New Zealand have increasedby approximately 110% during the sametime period. In 2004, imports from the EUincreased 9.8%, thanks to its enlargementfrom 15 to 25 countries in May of 2004.In 2004, U.S. dairy products wereexported to nine main markets: Mexico,China, Canada, Japan, Philippines, Republicof Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Indonesia(fig. 2). The main export market for dairyproducts as an aggregate are the NAFTAcountries—Canada and Mexico—whichjointly accounted for 34% of all U.S. dairyproduct exports in 2004. Recently, Chinahas also become an important export marketfor U.S dairy products, absorbing 9% ofsuch exports in 2004. Exports to China haveincreased dramatically since 2001. Totalquantity exported in 2004 to China was almostthree times the quantity exported in 1999.Fluid Milk and CreamThe principal export destination for U.S.fluid milk and cream in 2004 was Mexico,which absorbed almost 60% of all such exports(fig. 3). Canada was the second-largest exportmarket, accounting for 33% of all U.S. exportsof fluid milk and cream. Thus, the NAFTAcountries jointly accounted for approximately
  8. 8. Agricultural Experiment Station / Cooperative Extension Service • Technical Report 42 793% of all U.S. dairy exports of fluid milkand cream.U.S. imports of fluid milk and cream in2004 came principally from Canada (39%)and New Zealand (32%) (fig. 4). Mexico is agrowing import source of fluid milk andcream for the United States. In 1995, Mexicoaccounted for a little over 1% of imports,whereas in 2004, this share had risen to13%. The EU has also increased its sharefrom less than 1% of all such imports in1996 to approximately 11% in 2003.ButterThe United States is a net importer of butter.Total quantity imported in 2004 was 36,995metric tons, and 6,108 metric tons wereexported. The newly enlarged EU accountedfor 35% of all butter imported in 2004 andwas a close second, accounting for 33% of allbutter imported in 2004. Other importantimport sources are Uruguay, Israel andAustralia (fig. 5).On the export side, the main exportdestinations of U.S. butter are the NAFTAcountries of Canada and Mexico, whichtogether absorbed 75% of all butter exports in2004 (fig. 6). Mexico was the principal exportdestination for U.S. butter from 1994through 2000, except 1996, when the UnitedArab Emirates imported an unusually largeamount of U.S. butter. Since 2001, however,exports to Mexico have been lower than thoseto Saudi Arabia, in 2001 and 2002, and toCanada in 2003 and 2004. The NAFTAcountries were followed in importance byKuwait and the United Arab Emirates.Imports of butter over the 10-year periodfrom 1995 to 2004 have been cyclical, withinordinately large increases from the majorimport sources in both 1998 and 2002.Imports of butter from all sources, however,increased substantially from 2003 to 2004,with imports from the EU and New Zealandincreasing two-fold and almost ten-fold.Nonfat Dry MilkThe United States is a net exporter of nonfatdry milk products. While exports of otherdairy products have remained fairly stablesince 1996, exports of nonfat dry milk haveincreased substantially from a low of 21,598metric tons in 1996 to 254,002 metric tonsin 2004. The principal export market forU.S. nonfat dry milk is Mexico, which in2004 received 36% of these exports (fig. 7).Other markets are of limited importance,with the Philippines following Mexico at 9%of U.S. exports. Although Mexico remainsthe principal export destination for U.S.nonfat dry milk, exports to this country haveexhibited cyclical behavior since 1999. Exportsto other major markets have remained stableover the last decade.The United States imported 8,065 metrictons of nonfat dry milk in 2004. The majorimport sources for the U.S. of nonfat drymilk are, in order of importance, New Zealandand Mexico, which together accounted for 78%of nonfat dry milk imports in 2004 (fig. 8).In general, imports of nonfat dry milk overthe past 10 years have been increasing for themajor import sources. Imports from NewZealand have increased 1,912% since 1994.Those from Mexico have increased 911%during the same time period. In 2002, Chilebegan exporting nonfat dry milk to theUnited States for the first time in small quantities.CheeseThe United States is a net importer of cheesefrom a diversified group of countries. In 2003,the largest single source of U.S. cheese importswas the European Union, which accounted for60% of all imports (fig. 9). Imports from theEU have remained fairly stable over the pastdecade while imports from New Zealand havefollowed a rising trend.Mexico is the principal destination forU.S. cheese exports, accounting for 35% ofsuch exports in 2004 (fig. 10). The NAFTAcountries together accounted for 44% of all
  9. 9. Agricultural Experiment Station / Cooperative Extension Service • Technical Report 428Figure 1: Import Shares of U.S. Dairy Imports (2004)Figure 2: Export Shares for U.S. Dairy Export Markets (2004)
  10. 10. Agricultural Experiment Station / Cooperative Extension Service • Technical Report 42 9Figure 3: Principal Export Markets for Fluid Milk and Cream (2004)Figure 4: Principal Countries of Origin for U.S. Fluid Milk and Cream Imports (2004)
  11. 11. Agricultural Experiment Station / Cooperative Extension Service • Technical Report 4210Figure 5: Principal Countries of Origin of U.S. Butter Imports (2004)Figure 6: Principal Export Markets for U.S. Butter (2004)
  12. 12. Agricultural Experiment Station / Cooperative Extension Service • Technical Report 42 11Figure 7: Principal Export Markets for U.S. Nonfat Dry Milk (2004)Figure 8: Principal Countries of Origin for U.S. NFDM Imports (2004)
  13. 13. Agricultural Experiment Station / Cooperative Extension Service • Technical Report 4212Figure 9: Principal Countries of Origin for U.S. Cheese Imports (2004)Figure 10: Principal Export Markets for U.S. Cheese (2004)
  14. 14. Agricultural Experiment Station / Cooperative Extension Service • Technical Report 42 13U.S. cheese exports in 2004. Japan was alsoan important cheese export market, absorbing15% of U.S. exports in 2004. Exports to Japanhave leveled off in the past few years, however,as shipments to Mexico rise substantially. In1999, Mexico accounted for 13% of U.S.exports of cheese and imported 5,090 metrictons. In 2004, it imported 21,353 metrictons, more than three times the 1999 level.YogurtThe United States is a net importer of yogurt.In 2004, more than 4,388 metric tons ofyogurt were imported, and 3,980 metric tonswere exported. Seventy-five percent of importscame from the EU. The EU was followed inimportance by Canada, which accounted foronly 6% of U.S. yogurt imports in 2004(fig. 11). Imports from the EU skyrocketedafter 1999. Imports of yogurt from theEuropean Union in 2003 were 3,154% ofthose in 1999. Of the major import sourcesfor yogurt, only Mexico has leveled off in theamount of yogurt that it exported to theUnited States in the 2001-04 period.In 2004, the NAFTA countries absorbed62% of U.S. yogurt exports, followed byAustralia, which accounted for only 4% ofU.S. exports of yogurt (fig. 12). Over the pastdecade, yogurt exports to the major marketshave been stable, after dropping off precipitouslyto Mexico during the 1994-96 period.Ice CreamThe United States is a net exporter of icecream, with most exports going to theNAFTA countries and the EU. In 2004,23,831 metric tons of ice cream wereexported and slightly more than 18,613metric tons were imported (figs. 13 and 14).Canada accounted for 80% of all ice creamimports in 2004 and has consistentlyincreased its ice cream exports to the UnitedStates since 1997. On the export side, earlyin the past decade Japan was an importantexport destination for U.S. ice cream.However, its importance has diminished justas Mexico has increased its imports of cream.ConclusionThis report has provided a comprehensivedescription of the current state of the U.S.dairy industry and the major players involvedin international trade in dairy products. It isa valuable compendium and summary ofinformation for researchers, extension agents,industry and policymakers.The dairy sector remains highly protectedand regulated by the U.S. government.Liberalization has been slow in this sector butis proceeding at a steady pace as exemplifiedby advances in tariff reduction and quotaelimination in the NAFTA and U.S–AustraliaFree Trade Agreements. Although some tradedisputes have been resolved, notably withCanada, other issues, such as inclusion of milkprotein concentrates and casein in the currentdairy product quota system, are on-going.Domestically, the trend has been toward aconcentration of dairy production amonglarger establishments and a reduction in thetotal number of dairy operations nationwide.This trend has been uneven, however; somestates, particularly New Mexico and Idahohave witnessed rapid growth in dairyproduction in recent years. In the future, wecan expect these trends in domestic productionto continue, as the international arena of dairytrade becomes more important.
  15. 15. Agricultural Experiment Station / Cooperative Extension Service • Technical Report 4214Figure 11: Principal Countries of Origin for U.S. Imports of Yogurt (2004)Figure 12: Principal Export Markets for U.S. Yogurt (2004)
  16. 16. Agricultural Experiment Station / Cooperative Extension Service • Technical Report 42 15Figure 13: Principal Export Markets for U.S. Ice Cream (2004)Figure 14: Principal Countries of Origin for U.S. Imports of Ice Cream (2004)
  17. 17. Agricultural Experiment Station / Cooperative Extension Service • Technical Report 4216Works CitedAgriview Online, 2003, “United States andCanada Reach Agreement Ending IllegallySubsidized Canadian Dairy Exports to theU.S.,” May 16, 2003, Vol. 67, No. 10,, Don P. The Changing Landscape of U.S.Milk Production ERS, USDA, StatisticalBulletin No. 978, (June 2002).Blayney, Don P. and James J. Miller, ERS, USDA,International Dairy Markets and the WTO.Dairy Producers of New Mexico, FrequentlyAsked Questions About New Mexico Dairies,Retrieved July 19, 2004, Tariff Schedule of the United States,2004.National Agricultural Statistics Service(NASS),USDA, 2004New Mexico Dairy Facts, <>Nicholson, C.F. and P. M. Bishop, “U.S. DairyProduct Trade: Modeling Approaches and theImpact of New Product Formulations” FinalReport for NRI Grant #2001-35400-10249,March 2004.U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of theUnited States, 2004.USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, (FAS),Market and Trade Data, 2004.USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS)-a,Dairy: World Markets and Trade, CircularSeries No. FD 2-03 (2003).USDA, FAS-b, “United States and Australia FreeTrade Agreement, Commodity Fact Sheet forDairy, June 2004. Retrieved June 15, 2005http://www/fas/usda/gov/info/factsheets/AusFTA/dairy.html.USDA, FAS-c, “Australia Dairy and ProductsAnnual 2004,” GAIN Report No. AS4039,, FAS-d, “New Zealand Dairy andProducts Annual 2004,” GAIN Report No.NZ4019., FAS-e, “China, People’s Republic ofDairy and Products Annual 2004,” GAINReport No. CH4050., FAS-f, “Russian Federation Dairy andProducts Annual 2004,” GAIN Report No.RS4061., FAS-g, “Algeria Dairy and ProductsAnnual 2004,” GAIN Report No. AG4005., ERS. ERS USDA Briefing Room-Dairy Trade. 08/30 2002. <>.USDA-b, ERS. ERS USDA Briefing Room -Dairy: Background. 7/25 2002 <>.USDA-c, ERS. ERS USDA Briefing Room —Dairy: Policy. 25/7 2002 <>.USTR, “U.S. Wins in WTO Challenge toCanadian Dairy Subsidies,” press release,December 20, 2002. Signatories Terminate WTO PlurilateralAgreements on Meat and Dairy Products.WTO / News - Agreements on Meat andDairy Products - PRESS/78. 30 September1997. 10/5/04 <>.AcknowledgementsThe author thanks Dustin Vendreley, forexcellent research assistance, Sylvia Evansand Sylvia Beuhler for editorial assistanceand Hillary Sullivan, Jim Libbin andOctavio Ramirez for helpful comments on aprevious draft. All remaining errors andomissions are the sole responsibility of theauthor. This research was financed throughsupport from the New Mexico AgriculturalExperiment Station.
  18. 18. To find more resources for your home, family or business,visit the College of Agriculture and Home Economics on the WorldWide Web at Mexico State University is an equal opportunity/affirmative actionemployer and educator. NMSU and the U.S. Department of Agriculturecooperating.September 2005 Las Cruces, NMElectronic Distribution September 2005