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Skills Gaps: Myths and Realities

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A look at various causes and explanations for Skills gaps.

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Skills Gaps: Myths and Realities

  1. 1. The SkillsSkills The Gap Gap
  2. 2. john@hrxanalysts.com
  3. 3. Overview• Identify and Explain • Changes Driving Skills Requirements • Changes in Skills Utilization • Perceptions of• Five Facets of Skills Shortage
  4. 4. History• All volunteer military / no draft• Decline of corporate training dept• New answers to make or buy • New focus on the core• Healthcare / IT • Rapid demand growth • Changing Status• Literal search for action ready talent
  5. 5. Any job that can be automated will beAny job that can be outsourced will be
  6. 6. Cities Are Becoming Guild - Like
  7. 7. Population Times Economic Activity
  8. 8. The Standard of Living is Rising Everywhere
  9. 9. Consequences of Offshoring• Offshoring happens at a specific location in a specific region.• Those workers become surplus in the local economy• There’s no shortage (or the jobs would be ‘strategic’)• Workers have two choices • Apply for better paying gigs: they’re underqualified • Apply for lower paying gigs: they’re overqualified• Offshoring creates an abundance of underqualified applications
  10. 10. Blueseed
  11. 11. The education system has failed
  12. 12. Supply and Demand• 95 M workers w/o college degrees• Compete for 80 M jobs that don’t require• Most newly minted jobs require college• Production does not meet needs• This group has to compete w/college crowd• = More unqualified applicants
  13. 13. Unemployment Rate Varies with Education 11.1% 8.4% 6.8% 4.5%
  14. 14. Does Education Matter?• Peter Thiel Fellowships• Unimaginable Jobs Can’t Be Planned• Technology Shifts Employer Expectations• Most Jobs Becoming Tech Jobs
  15. 15. New Ways of Evaluating Tech Talent
  16. 16. Typical Under 32 has 10,000 Hours of Gaming by Age 21
  17. 17. Misunderstood Resource• 10,000 Hours of Video Gaming = • Volunteering For / Completing Hard Work • Discovering Unwritten Rules • Learning Through Progressive Failure • Collaboration • Mentoring • Persistence • Determination • Envelope Pushing / Hacking
  18. 18. A Generation• Ready to Be Trained• Knows How To Learn• Undaunted by Failure• Knows How to Collaborate In Uncertainty• Rewarded by Self-Direction• Needs Feedback (even if it’s harsh)• Oriented Towards Next Problem Set
  19. 19. Companies dont know how to hire
  20. 20. Basic Paradox: Surplus causes slower hiring
  21. 21. Complaints of Skill Shortages are a Symptom of Labor Surplus Complaints of Hiring Slowness are a Symptom of Shortage
  22. 22. Literal Matching 1 ≠ one Engineer ≠ developerProgram manager ≠ product manager Mgr ≠ manager Lead designer ≠ design supervisor CEO ≠ VP ATS: Good For Compliance ATS: Bad for Selection
  23. 23. • Surprise• This view held by MBA professors• Market Fooled By Appearance of Low Quality Surplus
  24. 24. The problem is entirely regional
  25. 25. The world today is more about cities than countries
  26. 26. Each City Has It’s Own Demographic Fingerprint
  27. 27. National statistics are noise.Local statistics are information
  28. 28. • Fortune 2500 • 18% of US Population in Top 50 Cities • 22% of Workforce• The Rest (78%) • Cities Under 300K
  29. 29. This is What Every Regional Labor Market Looks Like Ecosystem Ecosystem 1 1I Retail Hospitality Education Health Care Safety Govt Infrastructure
  30. 30. Meet your new robot overlordsTechnology is destroying work as we know it
  31. 31. One grain of rice on the 1st square.Two grains of rice on the 2nd square.Four grains of rice on the 3rd square.1 Billion Grains on the 32nd Square
  32. 32. 1 Billion grains of rice = 6,500 gallons of rice
  33. 33. Moore’s Law in ContextTransistors per Chip iPad iPhone Facebook Google World Wide Web IBM PC #1 Apollo Program You Are Here
  34. 34. Expect• Disruption• Massive Skills/Work Mismatch• Increased Emphasis on Training and Agility• More Difficulty Understanding Matches• Learning as a Survival Skill
  35. 35. Conclusions• Skills Shortage • Is an Expectations Problem • Is a Perception Problem • Is a Real Problem• Understand Supply and Demand in Your City
  36. 36. Questions
  37. 37. • John Sumser• 415.683.0775• John@hrexaminer.com

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