United Way - Embracing Risk 1.25.13


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United Way - Embracing Risk 1.25.13

  1. 1. Embracing Risk
  2. 2. For those who are prepared… …chaos brings opportu
  3. 3. RISK is simply an element ofeffective strategy
  4. 4. Most people think of: Threat of New Entrants Rivalry Bargaining Power of Among Bargaining Power of Suppliers Existing Buyers Competitors Threat of Substitutes
  5. 5. Do you have a clearly focused and well-communicated strategy for growth? Effective Strategy =Valued Differentiation x Execution
  6. 6. What strategy is not…• More, better, faster is not a strategy.• Effectiveness and efficiency are necessary… but not sufficient.• Superb execution of fundamental business processes… is expected.• Being extremely good at what you are supposed to be good at… gets you no extra credit at all.
  7. 7. • The willingness… even enthusiasm… to change EVERYTHING combined with the wisdom to understand what must NEVER be changed.
  8. 8. The Key To Success in the New Normal…•Nimbleosity•Nimbo-licious
  9. 9. Strategy is INTERNALas well as EXTERNAL
  10. 10. Five Foundations of Effective Strategic Thinking Business AcumenPersonal ExperiencePattern Recognition Strategic InsightDisciplined Execution
  11. 11. The Four – I’s • Ignorance • Inflexibility • Indifference • Inconsistency
  12. 12. How to avoid the Four I’s• Aggressive external market focus.• Aggressive customer focus.• Keep the “Main Things” the main things.• Bullish on knowledge sharing and learning.• Passion and commitment at all levels.• Foster a healthy paranoia.• Revel in change.
  13. 13. How do you decide which risks are worth embracing?
  14. 14. Quantitative & Qualitative
  15. 15. HIGH Take a Take A Chance PassProbability Take Delegate Your LOW Time LOW HIGH Impact
  16. 16. Quantitative Risk Assessment Protocola) Conduct a risk assessment and vulnerability study to determine the riskfactors.(b) Based on the top 5 risk factors - determine the value of assets under risk.(c) Determine the historical attitude of the company @ risk exposure.(d) Estimate the Annualized Rate of Occurrence (ARO) for each risk factor.(e) Determine the countermeasures required to overcome each risk factor.(f) Determine the Annualized Loss Expectancy (ALE) for each risk factor.(g) Conduct the safeguard cost/benefit analysis by calculating the differencebetween the ALE prior to implementing the countermeasure to the ALE afterimplementing the countermeasures .(h) Based on the above analysis, determine the return on investment usingInternal Rate of Return (IRR).
  17. 17. Litigation Risk Assessments• Case Status – A short description of the current status of the proceedings, anticipated motions and discovery, and settlement discussions or their absence. This section also can address issues such as the existence of an arbitration agreement and insurance coverage.• ƒ Legal Analysis – An assessment of any significant legal issues, including the benefits and risks of obtaining a binding judicial precedent.• ƒ Strengths and Weaknesses – A succinct outline of the strengths and weaknesses of your factual and legal position, including such factors as the substance and impact of the evidence, the availability and quality of witnesses, the sympathy or not of the adversary, the friendliness or hostility of the tribunal, and the competence and experience of opposing counsel.• ƒ Budget – The anticipated legal budget.• ƒ Possible Results and Probabilities – An assessment of damages, including possible results, probabilities and discounted values, and anticipated litigation expenses. The case value assessment includes percentage estimates based on various potential outcomes. Although percentages may imply more precision than is justified, they convey information more clearly than imprecise adjectives frequently used in describing litigation risk.
  18. 18. Hazard IdentificationDose-Response AnalysisExposer Quantification
  19. 19. SLOW DOWN!!!!! Workshop
  20. 20. Scenario Planning Begin with the end in mind
  21. 21. Assessing the Strategic Situation Simplicity Complexity Certainty Uncertainty Knowing Forecasting Proactive AdaptiveStrategic ScenarioPlanning Planning
  22. 22. Trigger Points
  23. 23. Embracing Risk = Change
  24. 24. Anyone who tells you they enjoy change… should seekimmediate professional help.
  25. 25. Emotional Response to Perceived Negative ChangeActive Anger Acceptance Bargaining Emotional Response Stability Denial Immobilization Testing DepressionPassive Time
  26. 26. Managing Positive Responses to ChangePESSIMISM Informed Hopeful Pessimism Realism Checking Informed Out Optimism Uninformed Optimism Completion TIME
  27. 27. Process Build the case for change Institutionalize Create a strong new sense of approaches urgency The eight major steps ofPlan for andcreate short- the change process Form a powerful guiding term wins coalition Create a clear Empower vision for others to act successful change Relentlessly communicate the vision
  28. 28. Build an irresistible case for change
  29. 29. Create a strongsense of urgency
  30. 30. Form a powerfulguiding coalition
  31. 31. Create a clear vision for successful change and communicate it relentlessly
  32. 32. Empower others to act
  33. 33. Plan for andcelebrate small wins
  34. 34. Institutionalize the change
  35. 35. Four antidotes to change resistance1. Bring people face-to-face with the external pressures to change.2. Engage change “zealots.”3. Manage feelings & emotions.4. Support the change with new tools, systems and training.
  36. 36. Embracing Risk = Change Embracing Change = FearNOT Embracing Change = Failure
  37. 37. Workshop: What are THREErisks / changes we need toembrace as a community?
  38. 38. THANK YOU If you have any questions at all please do not hesitate to send a note or call. My email address is: john@johnspence.com ** Please connect with me on LinkedIn **Also, you might find value in the ideas I share in my blog. You can sign up for it at: www.johnspence.com/blog These slides and the workbook have already been uploaded to: www.slideshare.net/johnspence