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A Conceptual Framework of Critical Infrastructure Resilience

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A Conceptual Framework of Critical Infrastructure Resilience

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Conference presentation: May 2016

The framework describes some of the key components to consider in a critical infrastructure scenario. There is a combination of several concepts included to illustrate how social networks may be viewed as complex adaptive systems coupled with technological systems. The references draw on Integral theory, psychology, and resilience engineering literature.

Conference presentation: May 2016

The framework describes some of the key components to consider in a critical infrastructure scenario. There is a combination of several concepts included to illustrate how social networks may be viewed as complex adaptive systems coupled with technological systems. The references draw on Integral theory, psychology, and resilience engineering literature.

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A Conceptual Framework of Critical Infrastructure Resilience

  1. 1. 1 A Conceptual John E. Thomas, MSEE, MBA PhD Candidate, Research Associate Advisor, Dr. Thomas Seager 20 May 2016 Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment Framework of Cri>cal Infrastructure Resilience: integra(ng people and complex systems
  2. 2. 2 TSA luggage screening issues 3000+ bags missed their flight Thursday 12 May 2016
  3. 3. Darnell Earley, Flint EM Photo: Zack WiIman/AP Photo: Ryan Garza Detroit Free Press Criminal charges filed against 3 government employees 4/20/16
  4. 4. 4 Social Ecology of Infrastructure Resilience Adapted (Masten, 2010; Bronfenbrenner, 1979) Area of focus Psychological Systems Biological Systems 4 4 4 Introduc>on Concepts Framework Yes, and…
  5. 5. 5 Photo: Felix Pharand Deschenes Research Ques>ons What? Theore(cal •  Parameters, processes, & relaYonships? How? Conceptual •  How to conceptualize resilience? Why? Opera(onal •  Facilitate mulYdisciplinary dialogue, beIer soluYons! Concepts Introduc>on Framework Yes, and…
  6. 6. 6 What is a framework? •  Structure of ideas & theories •  Logical foundaYon on exisYng theory •  Literature review •  Conceptual & visual representaYon •  ProposiYon for empirical verificaYon Why do we need another one? •  Current f/w’s are inadequate •  MulYple complex adapYve systems •  Human, socio-technical factors •  Lack of common language •  Enable dialogue among disciplines •  Contribute to holisYc problem definiYon
  7. 7. 7 (Masten, 2001) Assets, risks, & bipolar variables w/main-effect on outcomes Risks w/main-effect on outcomes Moderator & risk-ac>vated moderators Resilience Models Protec>ve Protec>ve-stabilizing Variables & processes Introduc>on Concepts Framework Yes, and…
  8. 8. 8 Stressors / Shocks Vulnerability factors ProtecYve factors Boundary condiYons (+/-) Resilience Concepts Model Adapted: (Masten, 2001; Luthar, 2000) (Hollnagel et al, 2011; Brofenbrenner, 1979) Outcomes Space Time Concepts Introduc>on Framework Yes, and… •  Moderator variables •  ProperYes & processes •  Component characterisYcs •  Bi-polar (+/-) •  Risks, suscepYbility •  ProperYes & processes •  Component thresholds •  Main-effect & operator
  9. 9. 9 Stressors / Shocks Ecological Technical Social Vulnerability factors ProtecYve factors Systems of Systems (+/-) Model Adapted: (Masten, 2001, 2014; Luthar, 2000) (Lerner, 2006; Holling, 2002; Smith & SYrling, 2008) Outcomes Space Time Meaning Context Dimensions Concepts Introduc>on SETS Resilience Concepts Framework Yes, and… Boundary condiYons •  Systems & networks •  Dynamic coupling •  Feedback •  Context •  Meaning
  10. 10. Resilience Rela>onal Dynamics Adapted (Bronfenbrenner, 1979; Ungar, 2013) Individuals çè Environments (groups) (systems) Resilience Processes •  Navigate & negoYate resources •  Recursive & reciprocal processes Resilience ProperYes Outcomes Impacts Concepts Introduc>on Framework Yes, and… Darnell Earley, Flint EM Photo: Zack WiIman/AP
  11. 11. Adapted (Thomas, 2016) Environment = Infrastructures: energy, water, transportaYon… Social Systems Infrastructures Power Water Roads Technical Systems Resilience Processes Coupled Social-technical Systems Space Time Meaning Dimensions Concepts Introduc>on Framework Yes, and…
  12. 12. •  Sensing—monitor systems state variables •  An>cipa>ng—imagining possible state outcomes •  Adap>ng—changing state variables •  Learning—differenYate, integrate, & create knowledge informing system behaviors 12 Individual & Group Resilience Ac(ons, behaviors, & ar(facts (Park, Seager, Rao, ConverYno, & Linkov 2013) (Hollnagel, Paries, Woods, & Wreathall 2013) (Linkov, Eisenberg, Bates, Chang, CoverYno, Allen, Flynn, Seager 2013) Social-technical Resilience Enabling Processes Resilience Socio-Technical Processes Outcomes Sensing AnYcipaYng AdapYng Learning (Thomas, 2016) Framework Yes, and… Concepts Introduc>on
  13. 13. 13 Stressors / Shocks Vulnerability factors ProtecYve factors (+/-) Ecological Technical Social Systems of Systems Outcomes Resilience Socio-Technical Processes AnYcipaYng AdapYng Sensing Learning Resilience Conceptual Framework (Thomas, 2016) Context Exogenous Endogenous Domains Space Time Meaning Dimensions 13 Framework Yes, and… Concepts Introduc>on Boundary condiYons
  14. 14. 14 1.  Systems 2.  ProtecYve factors 3.  Vulnerability factors 4.  Stressors, shocks 5.  SAAL processes 6.  Boundary condiYons 7.  Dimensions 8.  Domains 9.  Context 9 Parameters Framework Scorecard Framework Yes, and… Concepts Introduc>on
  15. 15. 15 Stressors / Shocks Vulnerability factors ProtecYve factors (+/-) Outcomes Resilience Socio-Technical Processes AnYcipaYng AdapYng Sensing Learning Context Boundary condiYons Social Systems Technical Systems (Thomas, 2016) Power Roads Water Space Time Meaning Dimensions Exogenous Endogenous Domains Infrastructure Resilience Conceptual Framework 15 Framework Yes, and… Concepts Introduc>on
  16. 16. 16 PVSO •  P = ProtecYve factors •  V = Vulnerability factors •  S = Stressors / Shocks •  O = Outcomes Adapted: (Esbjörn-Hargens, Zimmerman, 2009) Integral map of coupled social and technical systems PVSO PVSO PVSO PVSO Yes, and… Concepts Introduc>on Framework
  17. 17. Darnell Earley, Flint EM Photo: Zack WiIman/AP Photo: Ryan Garza Detroit Free Press Resilience Socio-Technical Processes AnYcipaYng AdapYng Sensing Learning Outcomes
  18. 18. Proposi>ons Photo: Felix Pharand Deschenes Resilient technology requires resilient people Yes, and… Resilient people require resilient technology ?
  19. 19. Resilience, SimulaYon for Water, Power & Roadway Networks, NSF Grant No. 1441352 This material is based upon work supported by the Na(onal Science Founda(on (NSF) under grant No. 1441352. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommenda(ons expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the NSF. Thank You IntegralResilience.org Thomas, John E. Co-authors: Eisenberg, Daniel Seager, Thomas Ph.D Johnny.Thomas@asu.edu
  20. 20. 20 References •  Brand, F., & Jax, K. (2007). Focusing the Meaning (s) of Resilience: Resilience as a DescripYve Concept and a Boundary Object. Ecology and Society, 12(1). Retrieved from hIp://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol12/iss1/art23/ES-2007-2029.pdf •  Bronfenbrenner, U. (1979). Ecology of human development. Cambridge, MA: Harvard. •  Cook-Greuter, S. (1999). Postautonomous ego development: A study of its nature and measurement (Doctoral dissertaYon). Retrieved from ProQuest DissertaYons and Theses database hIp://search.proquest.com/docview/304503009?accounYd=8203 •  Esbjörn-Hargens, S. (2010). An Overview of Integral Theory. In Integral Theory in Ac(on: Applied, Theore(cal, and Construc(ve Perspec(ves on the AQAL Model (pp. 33–61). State University of New York Press. •  Esbjörn-Hargens, S., Zimmerman, M. (2009). Integral Ecology, Uni(ng Mul(ple Perspec(ves on the Natural World. Integral Books. •  Holling, C., & Gunderson, L. (2002). Panarchy. Island Press. •  Hollnagel, E., Paries, J., Woods, D., & Wreathall, J. (2011). Resilience Engineering in Prac(ce: A Guidebook. Ashgate. •  Lerner, R. M. (2006). Resilience as an aIribute of the developmental system: Comments on the papers of professors Masten & Wachs. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1094, 40–51. doi:10.1196/annals.1376.005 •  Linkov, I., Eisenberg, D. a., Plourde, K., Seager, T. P., Allen, J., & KoI, A. (2013). Resilience metrics for cyber systems. Environment Systems and Decisions, 33(4), 471–476. doi:10.1007/s10669-013-9485-y •  Masten, A. (2001). Ordinary magic: Resilience processes in development. American Psychologist, 56(3), 227–238. doi:10.1037//0003-066X.56.3.227 •  Masten, A., & Obradovic, J. (2010). Disaster preparaYon and recovery: Lessons from research on resilience in human development. Ecology and Society, 13(1). Retrieved from hIp://ibcperu.org/doc/isis/8553.pdf •  Park, J., Seager, T. P., Rao, P. S. C., ConverYno, M., & Linkov, I. (2013). IntegraYng Risk and Resilience Approaches to Catastrophe Management in Engineering Systems. Risk Analysis, 33(3), 356–67. doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01885.x •  Smith, A., & SYrling, A. (2008). Social-ecological resilience and socio-technical transiYons: criYcal issues for sustainability governance. Brighton STEPS Centre Working Paper, 8(8), 1–25. Retrieved from hIp://www.steps-centre.org/PDFs/STEPS •  Ungar, M., Ghazinour, M., & Richter, J. (2013). Annual Research Review: What is resilience within the social ecology of human development? Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry, and Allied Disciplines, 54(4), 348–66. doi:10.1111/jcpp.12025

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