Phase I Development
Interactive Forecasting of
A program of the Principled Societies Project
May 24, 2017
What would your community feel like if it successfully addressed
the major problems impacting public health and wellbeing?
● Low unemployment and meaningful, high-wage jobs
● Well-funded schools
● Financial stability and low debt
● Environmental protection and reclamation
● Shorter work days
● Higher income equality and zero poverty
● Affordable health care
● Low rates of crime and preventable disease
This and more is possible...
...if communities become better at solving
problems that matter
Communities struggle with solving difficult, entwined problems for
lack of tools, methods, and incentives that support a holistic,
We change that.
A functional problem-solving process
Social choice systems are the components
subject to innovation.
We design, test, and implement innovative
social choice systems—
as components and whole platforms.
We help communities learn and adapt,
envision and achieve the future they desire.
In Phase I, we build initial components
Phase I constructs forecasting models to help communities
assess local conditions and anticipate outcomes.
Many types of questions could be posed. Three examples:
1) Given current trends, what will local unemployment and
disease rates be in six years?
2) How can we increase the volume of money that circulates in
our community? How long would it take?
3) How would different policy or development choices impact
future rates of unemployment, disease, and crime?
We empower communities with new problem-
solving tools and systems.
Our forecasting models are powerful and unique.
Feature Esri Claritas
√ 5 year only 5 year only Yes
Public health forecasts √ Yes Yes Yes
Wellbeing forecasts √ No No No
Uncertainty distributions √ No No No
√ No No No
√ Yes Yes No
√ No No No
Agent-based models √ No No No
“What if?” scenario
Census tract or block
Our business model
Open-source modeling engine and complementary tools and
interfaces, monetized via professional services and support.
Community level clients can include:
● Public health agencies
● Nonprofit organizations, hospitals, and schools
● Research groups
● Planning, traffic, and economic development agencies
Businesses and business groups
Where are we going?
Phase I: Summarized here. Initial models are basic, using limited
data. (About 2-3 years with ~4 staff, but progress can be made
with just one staff.)
Phase II and III: Models are improved and expanded. Income
stream begins. (About 2-3 years per phase, with increases in staff
Phase IV and beyond: Community-based scientific field trials of
comprehensive, integrated problem-solving platforms that
function as social choice systems.
After Phase I, we’re mostly self-supporting.
Who are we?
● John Boik, PhD, founder, organizer. Has developed the project
over five years; authored books, papers, articles, and models.
BS civil engineering, Boulder; PhD biomedical sciences,
Houston; postdoc statistics, Stanford.
● Brilliant management and staff to come, heavy on PhDs.
● Global network of academics, scientists, engineers, other
professionals, and organizations have expressed interest and
are supportive. Will be tapped when serious funding discussions
What we seek from social funders
Phase I startup costs: $500,000/year for three years. Progress
can be made on $80,000 per year. Grants or loans can be split
among several funders to spread commitment and risk. Loans
could be long-term. Income begins within two years.
What you, the funder, receive: Engagement in a bold,
innovative program to solve our most challenging problems. As a
secondary benefit, social investors may receive interest on a loan.
A small social investment via grant or loan can
lead to massive social and environmental impact.
To get the flavor
Read the article “Solving Problems That Matter
Could Be the Next Big Thing,” by John Boik.
Request a prospectus or proposal, which can be tailored to a
funder’s mission and interests.
Communities can solve important problems—
that’s what functional social choice systems do.