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Sustainable agriculture under climate change in the Aral Sea Basin. Maryse Bourgault

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Presentation from the WCCA 2011 event held in Brisbane, Australia.

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Sustainable agriculture under climate change in the Aral Sea Basin. Maryse Bourgault

  1. 1. Sustainable agriculture under climate change in the Aral Sea Basin Maryse Bourgault1*, C.A. Madramootoo1,H.A. Webber1, G. Stulina2, M. Horst2, D.L. Smith1 1. Faculty of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, McGill University * Current address: CSIRO, Plant Industry, Climate Adaptation Flagship, St. Lucia, Australia2. Central Asia Scientific Research Institute of Irrigation (SANIIRI)
  2. 2. Outline• The Aral Sea ecological disaster and humanitarian crisis• Socio-politico-economic context of agriculture in Uzbekistan• Possible solutions: – Institutions for water management and other social changes (not covered here) – Surface irrigation technologies – Crop rotations, choices and diversification of agricultural production
  3. 3. ARAL SEA DISAPPEARANCE
  4. 4. 1964 19871997 2008 NASA
  5. 5. Humanitarian crisis• Water and food contamination from water pollution and dust storms• Incidence of diseases increased in terms of folds rather than percentages• Lack of modern facilities• Depression and mental health issues
  6. 6. CLIMATE CHANGE
  7. 7. Climate Change• Expected temperature increases in the basin: likely to lead to heat stress• Conflicting evidence for precipitation changes
  8. 8. Climate Change• Expected temperature increases in the basin: likely to lead to heat stress• Conflicting evidence for precipitation changes• Melting of glaciers: earlier and greater runoff in the spring• Very likely increases in the frequency of heavy precipitation events: flash floods and landslides Savoskul et al. 2003
  9. 9. SOCIO-POLITICO-ECONOMICCONTEXT OF AGRICULTURE
  10. 10. Uzbek agriculture• Low governmental investment in agriculture• State farms and agricultural assets• Quotas for cotton and wheat• Large uneducated rural population
  11. 11. POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS:SURFACE IRRIGATIONTECHNOLOGIES
  12. 12. Regulated Deficit Irrigation•When to irrigate? Depletion factor 0% 100% threshold Field Moderate Large Recommended WiltingCapacity Stress Stress Point Slide by Heidi Webber
  13. 13. Alternate Furrow Irrigation
  14. 14. Alternate Furrow Irrigation versus Conventional Every Furrow Irrigation 2003 2004 Parameter of interest Alternate Every P value Alternate Every P value furrow furrow furrow Furrow Yield (kg ha-1) 656 692 0.3113 832 826 0.8276 Number of seeds per 6.9 7.1 0.1023 6.6 6.8 0.0441 pod 100 seed weight (g) 24.3 24.1 0.5972 19.1 20.0 0.0367 Pods per plant 25.2 28.3 0.1379 9.7 10.2 0.2198 Harvest index (%) 0.302 0.346 0.1339 0.306 0.284 0.2486 Stem Water Potential (bars) Before irrigation -10.2 -10.0 0.5025 -8.1 -8.0 0.0554 events After irrigation -8.9 -8.2 0.0027 -7.7 -7.5 0.0346 events Stomatal conductance (mmol m-2 sec-1) Before irrigation 221.0 233.5 0.1409 357.5 330.3 0.0947 events After irrigation 316.9 364.4 <0.0001 449.0 461.7 0.1410 events
  15. 15. Surge-flow Irrigation
  16. 16. POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS:CROP CHOICES
  17. 17. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov DecJan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
  18. 18. Inoculated Control
  19. 19. Conclusions• Physical environment is already under stress and vulnerable• The socio-economic context of agriculture in the region is specific and has implications for the introduction of new technologies• In the short term, introduction of legumes in crop rotations• Crop diversification to decrease vulnerability to lower irrigation water availability
  20. 20. AcknowledgmentsProf. Don SmithProf. Philippe SeguinProf. Chandra A. MadramootooDr. Heidi WebberCatherine SenecalNicholas StampfliRobert BakerMisha HorstGalina StulinaDr. Victor Dukhovnyall the field staff in UzbekistanBrace Center for Water Resources ManagementFonds Quebecois de Recherche en Nature et Technologies

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